TomCarlsonTomCarlsonSierraResearch,Inc.SierraResearch,Inc.

TomCarlsonTomCarlsonSierraResearch,Inc.SierraResearch,Inc.

August21,2013August21,2013CEC W k hCEC W k hAugust21,2013August21,2013CEC W k hCEC W k hCECWorkshopCECWorkshopCECWorkshopCECWorkshop

DOCKETEDCalifornia Energy Commission

AUG 27 2013

TN 71904

13-IEP-1L

BackgroundBackgroundVehicleattributesareusedasinputdataforCECconsumer choice modeling to estimate theconsumerchoicemodelingtoestimatethecharacteristicsoftheCaliforniavehiclefleet.

Attributesincludevehicleprice,fueleconomy,numberp yofmodels,aswellasperformanceandutilitymetrics.

Attributesareforecastfor:h l l l h d d h lVehicleclasses comprising18lightdutysizeandvehicle

typecategoriesdefinedbyCEC;and

Technology/fuelgroups encompassingconventionalandemergingalternativefuels(gas,diesel,NG,ethanol,electricity)andaspectrumofvehicletechnologies(conventional,hybrids,pluginhybrids,electricandfuel( , y , p g y ,cell).

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Draft2013IEPRScope2013attributeforecasts:

Lightdutyvehiclefleetonly

Basedupon:

2013NationalAcademyofSciencesTransitionstoAlternativeVehicles&Fuelsstudy

Boschestimatesofdieselvehiclepenetration(Junep (2013CECworkshop)

CARB2012ZEVAmendments

Updated historical data (MY2010 2011 data)Updatedhistoricaldata(MY20102011data)

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AnalysisFramework VehicleClassesCEC

S bfl t Cl Cl D i ti E l M d lSubfleet Class ClassDescription ExampleModels01A Subcompact(16000lbs) ToyotaEcho,HyundaiAccent,VWGolf02A Compact(16000lbs) HondaCivic,ChevyCavalier,FordFocus03A Midsize(16000lbs) HondaAccord,FordTaurus,ToyotaCamry04A Large(16000lbs) BuickLeSabre,FordCrownVictoria05A Sport (1 6000 lbs) Ford M stang Che Camaro To ota CelicaC

arClasses

05A Sport(16000lbs) FordMustang,ChevyCamaro,ToyotaCelica06A CrossUtilitySmall(16000lbs)* ChryslerPTCruiser,ToyotaMatrix07A CrossUtilitySmall(16000lbs)* ToyotaRAV4,HondaCRV,FordEscape08A CrossUtilityMidsize(16000lbs) ToyotaHighlander,HondaPilot,LexusRX30009A SportsUtilityCompact(16000lbs) ChevyBlazer,NissanXterra,IsuzuAmigo10A Sports Utility Midsize (1 6000 lbs) GMC Envoy Dodge Durango Isuzu Trooper

Csses

10A SportsUtilityMidsize(16000lbs) GMCEnvoy,DodgeDurango,IsuzuTrooper11A SportsUtilityLarge(60018500lbs) ChevyTahoe,ToyotaSequoia,FordExpedition11B SportsUtilityHeavy(850110000lbs) ChevyR2500Suburban,FordExcursion12A VanCompact(16000lbs) FordWindstar,DodgeCaravan,HondaOdyssey13A VanLarge(60018500lbs) FordEconoline,ChevyExpress,DodgeRamVan13B Van Heavy (850110000 lbs) Chevy Express Van G30 Ford Comm Strip E350ht

DutyTruckClas

13B VanHeavy(850110000lbs) ChevyExpressVanG30,FordCommStripE35014A PickupCompact(16000lbs) ChevyS10,FordRanger,NissanFrontier15A PickupStandard(60018500lbs) FordF150,GMCSierra,ToyotaTundra15B PickupHeavy(850110000lbs) GMCSierraC3500,DodgeD300/350,FordF350

* Cross Utility Small is bifurcated into "Car" and "Truck" due to CAFE differences.

Ligh

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CrossUtility Smallisbifurcatedinto Car and Truck duetoCAFEdifferences.

AnalysisFramework Tech/FuelGroups

T h/F l GNo. Abbrev Fuel/TechGroupDescription

1 GAS Gasoline2 GHYB GasolineElectricHybrids3 DSL Diesel4 BDSL Di l (Bi di l)

Tech/FuelGroup

4 BDSL Diesel(Biodiesel)5 DHYB DieselElectricHybrid6 LPG Propane7 FFVG FlexibleFuelVehicles(FFV),GasFueled8 FFVE FlexibleFuelVehicles(FFV),E85Fueled9 PHEV Plug in Electric Gasoline Hybrids (PHEV)9 PHEV PluginElectricGasolineHybrids(PHEV)10 CNG CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)11 LNG LiquefiedNaturalGas(LNG)12 DUAL DualFuelGasolineandCNG13 EV FullElectric(EV)14 FCV Hydrogen Vehicles (FCV)14 FCV HydrogenVehicles(FCV)

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AnalysisFramework AttributesModeledAttrShrt AttributeDescription

b f d d l k d d l (b d l l d f l/ h )#Configs Numberofindividualmakesandmodels(bymodelyear,classandfuel/techgroup)MSRP Manufacturersuggestedretailprice(MSRP)ofanewcarexpressedin2011U.S.dollarsOnRdFE Fueleconomy(onroadmilespergallonequivalent,mpge)Acl060 Acceleration(secondsto60milesperhour)TowCap Towingcapacity(lb),newfor2013IEPRM i tC t A l i t t i 2011 d ll i l f f il h / l i tMaintCst Annualnewcarmaintenancecostin2011dollars,incl.feesforoilchanges/regularmaint.Gradblty GradabilityDriveRng DrivingRange(miles)VehLife Averageexpectedvehiclelifetime(yrs),newfor2013IEPRSeatCap PassengerSeatCapacity(numberofpassengers)StorVol Trunk or Storage Space (in cubic feet) new for 2013 IEPRStorVol TrunkorStorageSpace(incubicfeet),newfor2013IEPRFuelTime TimeneededtocompletefullfuelingorchargingBattCost Batterycost(forHEV/PHEV/EV),newfor2013IEPRChrgCost ChargingEquipmentCost,externalequipment(forEV/CNG),newfor2013IEPRCurbWt Curbweightofvehicle(lb)HP Engine rated power (hp)

Attributesestimatedbymodelyear,vehicleclassand/

HP Engineratedpower(hp)Lit Enginedisplacement(liters)

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fuel/techgroup salesweightedcomposites

HistoricalBaseline(Step1)2011IEPRbasedonmodelyear(MY)1992throughy ( ) g2009historicaldata.

For2013IEPR,Sierradevelopedindependent MY19922011 hi t i l d t b ith dditi l tt ib t2011historicaldatabasewithadditionalattributesdescribedearlier:

Datacompiledatvehiclemodel&powertrainlevelp p

Historicalaveragesbymodelyear,vehicleclassandfuel/techgroupbasedonU.S.fleet newvehiclesales

Plan to update with California specific new vehiclePlantoupdatewithCaliforniaspecific newvehicleregistrationspurchasedfromR.L.Polk

Price(MSRP)andfueleconomydatacollectedforMYs20122013totestearlyyearforecasts.

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AttributeForecasts OverviewAttributeforecaststhroughMY2035werepreparedforg p pasetoffuelprice/economic/regulatorypolicyscenariosspecifiedbyCEC.

S i d li ith d t d f d lScenariosassumedcompliancewithadopted federal(CAFE,GHG,&RFS),andCalifornia(GHG,ZEV,&LCFS)regulations.

Primarysourceforattributeforecastswas2013NASTransitionstoAlt.Vehicles&Fuelsstudy

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AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&MethodsKey2013NASanalysisscenarios:y y

Reference Adoptedfederalregs.through2025(CAFE,RFS2) usedforDraft2013IEPR

Mid P li t b d 2025 ki 50%Midrange Policysupportbeyond2025seeking50%LDVGHGreductionsby2030from2005levels

Optimistic AggressivepolicysupportandstretchgoalsrequiringgreaterR&Dandvehicledesignsuccess

NAStechnologypenetrations:Powertrain improvements Vehicle simulation modelingPowertrainimprovements VehiclesimulationmodelingperformedforEPA2025GHGregulations

Loadreductions Improvementsfromlightweighting,llaero.drag&rollingresistancereductionsandaccessory

efficiencygains9

AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&Methods(cont.)

NASbasedtechnologycosts:gyFullylearned,highvolumecostsandphaseinschedules

Separateestimatesdevelopedfor:

Internalcombustionengines(ICEs)

Hybrids(HEVs) addedasincrementtoICEcosts(subtractingcreditsforsmallerengines)( g g )

PlugInHybrids(PHEVs) 310timeshigherbattery/motorsizes

Battery Electric Vehicles (EVs) 30 times higherBatteryElectricVehicles(EVs) 30timeshigherbattery/motorsizesthanHEVs

FuelCellVehicles(FCVs)andCompressedNaturalGasVehicles(CNGVs) cheaperthanEVs,infrastructureconstrained

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AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&Methods(cont.)

KeyNASassumptions:y pNASdidnotconsiderfurtherefficiencyimprovementstodieselengines assumedmanufacturerswouldfocusICEimprovements on gasoline enginesimprovementsongasolineengines

Lithiumionislongtermtechnologyforpluginhybridandbatteryelectricvehicles

Weightreductionsrangingfrom15%to20%(relativeto2010)by2030

Markupfactorof1.25(totranslateproductioncoststop ( pretailequivalentincrements)

Manufacturerswilltradehistoricalincreasesinperformance and utility for downsizing to comply withperformanceandutilityfordownsizingtocomplywithstringentGHG/FEstandards

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AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&Methods(cont.)

LAVETransspreadsheetmodeldevelopedunderNASp pstudyusedtogenerateFEandvehiclepriceforecasts

UsedNASbasedrelativeFEimprovementsandvehiclei (MSRP) f ICE HEV PHEV FCV d CNGprices(MSRP)forgasICE,HEV,PHEV,FCVsandCNG

technologies.

Diesels NASbasedloadreductiongains(andcosts)forg ( )gasICEsusedtoforecastFEimprovementsandMSRP.

FuturebatterycostsscaledfromNASmidrangei ( 80% d i i 2035 f HEV 70estimates:(over80%reductionsin2035forHEVs,70

75%forPHEVs,65%forEVsrelativeto2010)

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AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&Methods(cont.)

Modelavailability forecasts(numberofmodels):y ( )GasICEs&HEVs ScaledfromLAVETranssalesprojections

Di l ICE th h MY2018 b d B hDieselICEs grownthroughMY2018basedonBoschprojectionsfromJune2013workshop

CNG&DualFuel Heldconstantafter2013

PHEVs,EVs,FCVs:

Grownfrom2011baselinetoreflectupdatedZEVlightduty vehicle production targets by 2025 (5 9%light dutyvehicleproductiontargetsby2025(5.9%PHEVs,4.6%EVs,3.3%FCVs)

CARBbasedsplitsbyvehicletype(carvs.passenger)car)

RestrictednumberofvehicleclassesforEVs13

AttributeForecasts FEResults(NAS Reference Case)

ForecastedPassengerCarCAFEFuelEconomy(mpge)byFuel/TechGroup(NASReferenceCase)

140

160

180

200

(mpge) ICE/CNG HEV

PHEV BEVFCV

60

80

100

120

AFEFue

lEcono

my( FCV

0

20

40

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

CA

ModelYear

ICE/CNGpassengercarFEincreases61%(from2011to2030)

HEVpassengercarFEincreases49%

PHEVpassengercarFEincreases61%

BEVpassengercarFEincreases21%

FCVpassengercarFEincreases24%14

AttributeForecasts FEResults(cont.)ForecastedLightTruckCAFEFuelEconomy(mpge)byFuel/TechGroup

(NAS Reference Case)(NASReferenceCase)

100

120

140

(mpge) ICE/CNG HEV

PHEV BEVFCV

40

60

80

AFEFue

lEcono

my( FCV

0

20

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

CA

ModelYear

ICE/CNGlighttruckFEincreases55%(from2011to2030)

HEVlighttruckFEincreases41%

PHEVlighttruckFEincreases60%

BEVlighttruckFEincreases16%

FCVlighttruckFEincreases20%15

AttributeForecasts RetailPriceResults(NAS Reference Case)

ForecastedPassengerCarMSRPbyFuel/TechGroup(NASReferenceCase)

50,000

55,000

60,000

)ICE HEV

PHEV BEV

FCV CNG

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

MSRP(201

1$)

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035ModelYear

ICEpassengercarMSRPincreases7%(from2011to2030)

HEVpassengercarMSRPdecreases 4%

PHEVpassengercarMSRPdecreases 8%

BEVpassengercarMSRPdecreases 24%

FCVpassengercarMSRPdecreases 13%16

AttributeForecasts RetailPriceResults(NASReferenceCase)

ForecastedLightDutyTruckMSRPbyFuel/TechGroup( )

50,000

55,000

60,000

$)ICE HEV

PHEV BEV

FCV CNG

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

MSRP(201

1$

20,000

25,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035ModelYear

ICElighttruckMSRPincreases6%(from2011to2030)

HEVlighttruckMSRPdecreases 4%

PHEVlighttruckMSRPdecreases 10%

BEVlighttruckMSRPdecreases 25%

FCVlighttruckMSRPdecreases 13%17

QuestionsandComments

TomCarlson

SierraResearch,Inc.

916 444 66669164446666

tcarlson@sierraresearch.com

THANKYOU!

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