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    Threat into Risk:

     A Challenge for Security Guidance

    Tony Beard

    Office of Transport Security

    Department of Transport and Regional Services

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    Current Security Environment

    Threats:

    Al-Qa’ida and linked trans-national terrorism is the principal gloal threat

    Transport! including maritime! remains an attractive target

    "ass causalities through multiple! coordinated use of improvisede#plosive devices is preferred attack o$ective and methodology

    %ational &T Alert level remains at MEDIUM

    Issues in Defining the Threat:

    '(ome gro)n terrorism* does not help understand the terrorist threat

    Radicalisation processes are poorly understood +rofiling is prolematic and not the ans)er

    ,#tremism can transcend national! social and family identity

    Terrorists have demonstrated outstanding operational capaility

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    Nature of the Threat

    Transnational terrorism leads to traumatic! catastrophic conseuences

    .ocus is on mass casualties

    Terrorists have demonstrated intent and capaility / coordinated attacks

    There is constant heightened level of threat

    %ature and level of threat means )e Must Expect the Unexpected

    There is likely to e no prior )arning of attack

    &riminal activity highlights vulnerailities

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    The Threat to Maritime Security 

    The "aritime industry represents an attractive target ecause0

    / 1arge shipments of dangerous cargo may provide a ready 2)eapon’/ &ruise ships concentrate large numers of people/ 3nfrastructure is accessile

    .orms of terrorist maritime sector attack include0

    / (i$acking of vessels 4eg Achille Lauro! 56789:/ Boat-orne improvised e#plosive devices 4eg Limburg! ;

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    Limits of Intelligence

    Strategic intelligence gives an insight into terrorist intent! capaility/ ?seful in prioritising risks and developing preventative measures/ Also helpful in focusing on key vulnerailities

    Specific intelligence identifying a particular target! time is unlikely

    / &annot rely on attacks al)ays eing foiled 2in the nick of time’/ Security posture needs to reflect threat environment

    ,#ploit terrorists’ vulnerailities as they seek to e#ploit ours

    / Terrorists often need to conduct hostile reconnaissance/ ,ncourage and enale resolution of suspicious activity/ ,ngage )ith partners in government and industry

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    Criminal Threat to the AustralianMaritime Industry 

    Terrorism is a crime / not all crime is terrorism

    &riminal activity highlights vulnerailities in security systems )hich

    may e e#ploited y terrorists

    &riminals )ant to preserve the transport system for their o)n ends

    Terrorists )ant to destroy the transport system for their o)n ends Organised and opportunistic crime threatens the integrity of the

    maritime sector

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    RIS: !rames of Reference

    AS/NZS 4360 Risk

    Management

    Corporate RiskRegulatory Risk

    Security Risk

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     A Security Risk "octrine as the #asis for Mitigation $lanning

    @overnment policy / prevention is a usiness cost

    Security risk management y industry/ 5 %on proscriptive regulation

    / ; +rovides fle#iility to o)ner=operators

    / 3t is not possile to eliminate all threats

    (ighly professional attackers / no prior )arning +roaility of coordinated 3,D attacks on mass gathering Traumatic and catastrophic conseuences are untenale @overnments have %O R3SC A++,T3T,

    .ocus on ulnerailities and Suspicious Activity

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    $reventive Security Re%uirements

    Security must e a normal part of doing usiness

    Board and &,O responsiility

    Documented Security +lan for Risk "itigation  Based on intelligence led security risk assessment

      3ncluding prioritised ?1%,RAB313T3,S

      +repared in consultation )ith internal E e#ternal partners

      ,nsuring reporting! logging and assessing security incidents

     

    +roviding for security a)areness training to ensureidentification and resolution of suspicious activity

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      'Today &e &ere unlucky' #utremem#er &e only have to #elucky once( )ou &ill have to #e

    lucky al&ays(*

    + from a statement #y the IRA addressed toMargaret Thatcher

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    ,uilding ey $artnershi-s +artnerships harness and focus capacity

    Security Risk Doctrine creates a common message for partners

    ulnerailities are many and can e#haust resources0

    / %eed for focus and sustainaility

    / harness all human capacities

    / utilise technology to aid human a)areness / &&T

    Discussion ,#ercises 4Desk-Top9

      held routinely and regularly

    to harness the capacity of all partners

      against a common mental model

     

    clarify0- partnering roles and responsiilities

    - policy and planning short falls

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    $artnershi- .#/ectives

    To ensure0 @overnment agencies: Businesses and &ommunities

    are together creating an environment hostile to terrorist

    planning and preparation y0

    / 3dentifying and mitigating vulnerailities: and

    / actively disrupting and resolving suspicious activity

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    Security A&areness Raising

    A common language is necessary

    Security a)areness training for staff! contractors andregular customers is essential

    Security plans must include provisions for the reporting!logging and assessing of security incidents

    3dentification and resolution of suspicious activity is

    essential

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     0ulnera#ilities

    ulnerailities potentially amplify terrorist capailities and thereforeincreases the chance of a risk eventuating

    ulnerailities must e prioritised to focus and ensure proportional

    targeting of risk mitigation strategies there y est utilising resources

    ulnerailities should e prioritised through an intelligence ledassessment of likelihood and an understanding of the local securityconte#t

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    The Challenge

    ,nsuring that even if the om doesn’t go off this )eek0

    @overnment remain focussed

    3ndustry remain vigilant and prepared

    +ulic interest and a)areness is sustained

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    Summary  Terrorist response must e focussed! proportional and recognise0

    / &onstant heightened level of threat

    / Terrorists display personal and professional capaility

    / %o prior )arning of attack

    Risk ased approach provides common language! ideas and focus

    Our operating environment is comple# and sound partnerships are

    essential to achieving an effective response

    @overnment! industry and the pulic must remain focussed and

    alert to identification of suspicious activity