Module II. Concepts, frameworks, methodologies and tools for vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Tools for assessments of vulnerability and adaptation strategies

Boubacar Fall (ENDA, Dakar, Senegal)

In collaboration with:

Introduction

• Many tools exist to assist in the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation

• To select appropriate tools:Clearly define the nature of vulnerability, as well as the framework and methodology to be used; andKeep in mind the practical elements of the assessment: context, time, resources available, target audience, use of results, etc.

Introduction (con’t)

• Some tools are specific to vulnerability assessments

• Some tools are specific to adaptation assessments

• Some tools can be used for both• Vulnerability and adaptation assessments can

be done at different levels • There are appropriate tools for each level

Examples of V&A assessment tools for the individual or community level

Vulnerability AdaptationOral histories

Focus groups

Role playing

Cognitive mapping

Brainstorming

Oral histories

• Qualitative histories of individual actors:– Information is obtained through interviews – Interview summaries can assist in outlining the past

vulnerability of a multitude of actors– Can be used for ecological restoration – Useful for planning, decision-making and project design

• Multi-disciplinary team with general knowledge

Focus Groups

• Discussions amongst a group of stakeholders• Goal: To obtain advice from different stakeholders on

a certain subject• Groups should be homogenous taking in account the

cultural factors (5 to 10 participants)• Choose:

– A facilitator– A rapporteur (or tape the discussion)

• Duration of discussion: 1-2 hours• Current decision-making, project design, planning• Multi-disciplinary team with general knowledge

Brainstorming

• Goal: Collect all common ideas and thoughts on a given subject

• Choose a clear and understandable subject• Assemble the group around a table with a large

sheet of paper at the center so that each person can add his or her ideas

• Or use a facilitator to write down all of the ideas generated by the group

• No more than 10 people per group• Group similar ideas together and highlight those

ideas to follow-up on• Use the most original ideas

Role playing

• A participatory game that stimulates discussion, paves the way for improved communication, and supports collaboration

• Not constrained by literacy or instruction barriers that may otherwise exist

• To begin the role play, one must describe the situation/problem to be discussed and assign a different role to each participant

• Allow each participant to express his or her observations and to suggest solutions

Cognitive Mapping

• Allows for the measurement of mental representations• Assists in structuring complex or unorganized data• Useful when perceptions of a problem differ, the

problem is poorly defined or when a common framework is desired

• To construct a cognitive map:– State what the problem is– Brainstorm all associated assumptions and solutions – Group the concepts that emerge– Re-illustrate the concepts so they form a conceptual model– Consult participants to ensure that they are satisfied with the model that has

been created; if not, revise the model– Produce a formal model

Cognitive Map of Food Systems

Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004

FOOD

Human Healthand Survival

Contains

Required for

and

Requiring more

Essential Amino Acids

Animals

Used for

Such as

Madeby

Plants

Grains Legumes

Required forgrowth of

Symbiotic Bacteria

“Fixed” Nitrogen

Possess

That produce

Agricultural Practices

Population Growth

Politics

Economics

Distribution

Climate

Starvation and Famine

Malthus 1819

Eastern Europe

India

Africa

Deprivation leads to

Can be limited by

and

Such as in

Pesticides HerbicidesGenetics & Breeding

Irrigation

Fertilizer Which significantly supplements naturally

Such as

Predicted by

Can be increased by

NH3Haber

ProcessAtmospheric N2

Protein

Includes

Eatenby

Use

d by

hu m

ans

a s

FOOD

Human Healthand Survival

Contains

Required for

and

Requiring more

Essential Amino Acids

Animals

Used for

Such as

Madeby

Plants

Grains Legumes

Required forgrowth of

Symbiotic Bacteria

“Fixed” Nitrogen

Possess

That produce

Agricultural Practices

Population Growth

Politics

Economics

Distribution

Climate

Starvation and Famine

Malthus 1819

Eastern Europe

India

Africa

Deprivation leads to

Can be limited by

and

Such as in

Pesticides HerbicidesGenetics & Breeding

Irrigation

Fertilizer Which significantly supplements naturally

Such as

Predicted by

Can be increased by

NH3Haber

ProcessAtmospheric N2

Protein

Includes

Eatenby

Use

d by

hu m

ans

a s

Examples of V&A assessment tools for the municipal or institutional level

Vulnerability Adaptation

Livelihood indicators

GIS

Vulnerability indicators

Institutional analysis

Decision tree

Livelihood indicators

• Assess the impacts of climate change on different aspects of the livelihoods

• Begin by analyzing the dominant livelihoods in the case study region

• Identify the different threats for these livelihoods and develop a sensitivity matrix that reflects the interactions between these livelihoods (rows) and the risks (columns) identified

• Assign a numeric score to each cell of the matrix– In the case of a rapid participatory exercise, use a qualitative scale: high,

medium or low• Calculate the total per row and per column

– The highest column scores indicate which climate hazards have the greatest impact

– The highest row scores indicate which livelihoods are most affected

Livelihoods sensitivity matrix

GIS (Geographic Information Systems)

• Software that organizes geographical and numeric data and allows one to manage the information produced

• GIS can serve many functions:- Data collection (geographic, geo-spatial)- Information management and storage- Analytical functions- Transformation of data into maps, tables, graphs or figures- Support to the decision-making process for planning, land-use or natural resources management, and transport issues

Vulnerability Indicators• Measures the degree of vulnerability• Guides the decision-making process by prioritizing

which interventions are needed• An indicator must reflect the actual situation to be

reliable• It is difficult to compare different indicators• Step one: Select indicators based on the situation

– eg. Food security has economic, demographic and political dimensions, so indicators that reflect this include: GDP/capita, infant mortality rate, or literacy rates amongst women

• Step two: Assign weights to indicators according to their importance

Natural Natural Natural Financial Human Social Physical

Land Livestock Cash crops Off-farm employment

Skilled labour Community organizations

Roads

Smallholders 5 2 4 3 3 5 5

Emerging farmers

10 5 7 6 7 7 5

Agro-pastoralists

1 10 1 2 1 3 2

Market-traders

10 1 1 10 10 7 10

Vulnerability Indicators

Source: UNFCCC/LEG, 2004

Spider diagram

Institutional Analysis

• Mapping the different stakeholders and their interactions (rules, norms, organizations)

• Institutional changes (through social, cultural or other changes) can play a more important role in V&A than do climate variability and/or change

• Institutional change can be extremely variable and unpredictable, and can limit and/or facilitate adaptation

• Helps in determining who is vulnerable and why, as well as why some response measures might be more appropriate than others

Decision Tree

• Chart of the relationships between different decision paths

• A decision tree assists in the visualization of the possible implications of one decision

• Useful for adaptation planning• To construct a decision tree:

– Structure the problem (and possible outcomes) as a tree– Assign probabilities to each of the potential events of the

tree– Calculate the total for each different decision path– Decide on which action to take

Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004

Examples of V&A assessment tools for the national or regional level

Vulnerability Adaptation

Vulnerability profiles

Syndromes

Multi-criteria analysis

Expert judgment

Scenario analysis

Vulnerability Profiles

• Representation of different vulnerability indicators for a group

• Helps to identify patterns of exposure, sensitivity and resilience among regions, social groups, etc.

• Indicators that could be included in a profile, include:– Percentage of population below the poverty line; illiteracy

rate; access to health care or land; exposure to climate– Socio-economic factors: population growth; the spread of

HIV/AIDS; population migration; market price fluctuations• Construct a matrix of the different groups and their

scores for the selected indicators• Use radial diagrams to illustrate differences in a

graphical manner

Drought-food security

Climate

Water & Land

Health

Economy

Socio-institutional

Demography

Vulnerability profile based on six factors related to the food security of rural smallholders

Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004

Syndromes

• The syndromes approach aims to assess and monitor a number of coupled processes taking place on different (spatial and temporal) scales

• Goal: To determine the level(s) of intervention to achieve the most sustainable development pathways

• 16 syndromes* have been identified and are classified into one of three groups:– Utilization syndromes (7):

• e.g. Over-cultivation of marginal land, combined with rural poverty (Sahel Syndrome)• e.g. Destruction of nature by tourism (Mass Tourism Syndrome)

– Development syndromes (6):• e.g. Destruction of landscapes through planned expansion of cities and infrastructure (Urban

Sprawl Syndrome)• e.g. Disregard for environmental standards in the course of rapid economic growth (Asian Tigers

Syndrome)– Sink Syndromes (3):

• e.g. Threats to the environment through disposal of waste (Waste Dumping Syndrome)• e.g. Environmental degradation through large-scale diffusion of long-lived substances (Smokestack

Syndrome)

* German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) www.wbgu.de/wbgu_syndromkonzept_en.html

Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)

• Allows for the comparison of adaptation options using monetary and non-monetary values

• Facilitates the decision-making process• Various steps of a MCA are:

- Identify the decision-making context- Identify possible adaptation options- Select criteria to evaluate the options- Score the adaptation options using the criteria selected- Standardize the scores- Assign weights to the criteria according to their importance- Recalculate the scores and rank the options- Analyze the results- Determine the sensitivity of the results

Expert judgment

• A quick method to obtain information on one or more options

• Assessment of specific options by specialists: – Conduct a preliminary analysis of the decision-making

context in which adaptation options will be selected– Provide this information to the experts via email or a letter

requesting their opinions– Do not contact experts before the initial assessment has

been done– After analyzing the responses of the experts, produce a

detailed report of the problem and rank the response options by priority order

Scenario Analysis

• Projections of the future based on either optimistic or pessimistic assumptions of future development

• Allows one to project the potential impacts of adaptation strategies

• Generally developed by small teams of experts representing a wide variety of sectors

• Two approaches dominate scenario development:– Global level: Top-down approach– Local level: Bottom-up approach