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© 2006 IBM Corporation
Top Ten Emerging Technologies to Drive Mission Performance
Dr. David F. McQueeneyCTO, IBM Federal
NDIA Net Centric Operations ConferenceNorfolk, VAMarch 6, 2006
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“Swivel Chair Integration”
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2003: Air Operations Center
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So what’s changed?
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Enterprise-Class IT: “…as Simple as Possible but no Simpler*”
Complex problems tend to require complex solutions…
Tradeoff between depth of function and simplicity of use
Optimizing for best return: Acquisition Cost? Lifecycle cost? Performance? Flexibility?
What’s the scope of “enterprise”anyway?
* A. Einstein
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Top Ten Emerging Technologies … Four Groups
Base Technology
Software, Infrastructure and SOA
Information Management
Web 2.0 … The Internet as a Platform
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Base Technology: What does $1000 buy?
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20201E-6
1E-3
1E+0
1E+3
1E+6
1E+9
1E+12MechanicalElectro-mechanical
Vacuum tubeDiscrete transistor
Integrated circuit
Year
1,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,000,000
1,000
1
0.001
0.000001
Com
puta
tions
/ se
c
after Kurzweil, 1999 & Moravec, 1998
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32-bit Processor Trends
Frequency growth rate historically ~35% (CAGR)
- Prescott (90 nm): only 10-15% CAGR growth
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20071
10
2
3
4
Pentium 4 (180 nm)
Pentium 4 (130 nm)
Freq
uenc
y (G
Hz)
5
Initial Ship Date
Prescott (90 nm)
2002 Roadmap~35% yr/yr
200310-15% yr/yr
3.4 GHz (Intel, 2/04)
Sources: Competitive Analysis Technical Team (CATT), Intel
Multi-core processors will emerge to offset slow down in frequency growth
10S Tox=11AGate Stack
Gate dielectric approaching a fundamental limit (a few atomic layers)
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Delivering System Performance: Post-Scaling Parallelism
Applications,Middleware,
OS
Compiler, Bus & Memory Interfaces
Semiconductors,Processor Core,
Cache, Package,
I/O, Cooling,
Interconnect
60% CAGR
50% CAGR
80% CAGR
1998 – 2003: Scaling Driven
Chip-level integrationlevers
20% CAGR
65% CAGR
90% CAGRSystem-level integrationlevers
Applications,Middleware,
OS,Hypervisor,
Cluster Management
Semiconductors, Multiple Cores,
Embedded Memory, Accelerators,
Power/Adaptability Hooks,
Interconnects, Switch Fabric,
Cache, High-Speed I/O, Compiler
2004 Integration Driven
Semiconductors, Processor Core,
Cache, Package, I/O, Cooling
Uni-processor
Chip Level
System Level
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Top Ten Emerging TechnologiesThe Software, Infrastructure and SOA Group
Application Optimized SystemsEvent-Driven Architecture
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Modularity At All Levels is Enabling a New Era of Application-Optimized Systems
A A A A
A A A A
C
CC
CC
CC
C C
C
C
C
L2 Cache
C
C
L2Cache
L2 Cache
Subsystem LevelMemory,
I/O subsystem,Specialty blades
Multi-threads, Multi-cores, Specialty cores, Accelerators,
Busses, I/O
Chip Level
SoC design, Compilers, Libraries
Operating systems, Middleware,
Management tools
ManageCustomers
Strategy
Tactics
Execution
Merchandising Store/Channel Operations
Supply Chain &Distribution
FinanceAdministration
BusinessAdministration
Business Perf. Mgmt.
External Market Assessment
Legal and Regulatory
Indirect Procurement
Real Estate, Facilities and
Equipment
HR Administration
Corporate Finance and
Controls
Customer Insights
Vendor and Product
Performance Execution and Management
Distribution Center
Transportation Resources
Product Directory
Accounting and GL
Outbound
Logistics
Store/Off-site Services
Execution
Inventory Planning
Channel, Category Strategy and Planning
Assortment and Space Planning Management and Execution
Supply Chain
Strategy and Planning
Financial Management and Planning
Organization and Process Design
Corp. Planning
Alliance Management
Line of Business Planning
Develop and Operate IT Systems
Distribution Oversight
Market Risk Management
Customer Relationship Planning and
Strategies
Product Planning,
Development & Pricing
Strategies
Customer Insights
Vendor Relationship
Strategies
Assessing Customer
Satisfaction
Matching Supply and
Demand
Order Management
Customer Account Servicing
Item Management
Treasury
Store Operations
Management
Transportation Resources
Event, Promotion
Strategy and Planning
Customer Directory
Inventory, Product Tracking and Tracing
Operations Back Office
Financial
Outbound Logistics
Store/Channel Design and
Layout
Store/Channel Labor
Strategy
Store/Channel Objectives &
Strategy Planning
ManageCustomers
Strategy
Tactics
Execution
Merchandising Store/Channel Operations
Supply Chain &Distribution
FinanceAdministration
BusinessAdministration
Business Perf. Mgmt.
External Market Assessment
Legal and Regulatory
Indirect Procurement
Real Estate, Facilities and
Equipment
HR Administration
Corporate Finance and
Controls
Customer Insights
Vendor and Product
Performance Execution and Management
Distribution Center
Transportation Resources
Product Directory
Accounting and GL
Outbound
Logistics
Store/Off-site Services
Execution
Inventory Planning
Channel, Category Strategy and Planning
Assortment and Space Planning Management and Execution
Supply Chain
Strategy and Planning
Financial Management and Planning
Organization and Process Design
Corp. Planning
Alliance Management
Line of Business Planning
Develop and Operate IT Systems
Distribution Oversight
Market Risk Management
Customer Relationship Planning and
Strategies
Product Planning,
Development & Pricing
Strategies
Customer Insights
Vendor Relationship
Strategies
Assessing Customer
Satisfaction
Matching Supply and
Demand
Order Management
Customer Account Servicing
Item Management
Treasury
Store Operations
Management
Transportation Resources
Event, Promotion
Strategy and Planning
Customer Directory
Inventory, Product Tracking and Tracing
Operations Back Office
Financial
Outbound Logistics
Store/Channel Design and
Layout
Store/Channel Labor
Strategy
Store/Channel Objectives &
Strategy Planning
5.6 GF/s, 4 MB
2 processors
2 chips, 1x2x14 processors
11.2 GF/s1.0 GB
16 compute cards(16 compute, 0-2 IO
cards)64 processors
180 GF/s16 GB
32 Node Cards2048 processors
5.6 TF/s512 GB
20 KWatts1 m2 footprint
64 Racks, 64x32x32131,072 processors
360 TF/s32 TB
1.3M Watts
SystemRack
Mode Card
Compute Card
Chip
Business processesSystem LevelBusiness Level
Web Services, SOAEnterprise Service Bus
System level design,Protocols
Processor blades/drawers/racks
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The Power of Modularity – “#1”
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The Event-Driven World
• Billing• Security• Fraud alerts• Retrospective
processing
Location Based Service (Traffic)
RFID-enabled Checkout
Intelligent Oil Field
ENRON Chairman
indicted……
..
Fraud/Compliance
Surveillance RFID-enabled Scanning
VoIP, VoD, IMS, etc.
IPv6 Map
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SOA Programming Model for Event Orientation
Routed EventsIntelligent Routing
EventSourceEvent
Source
EventSink
EventSink
EventSink
EventSink
ESB
Yes
No
Combines with brokered event mechanisms
Content-based routing
Transformation
Standards-based, e.g., XML and Web Services
EventEventSourceEvent
SourceEventSink
EventSink
EventSink
EventSink
EventESB
EventEventEvent
SourceEvent
Source
Combines basic ESB services with long running stateful processes (event choreography)
Supports looping constructs, state management, conditional constructs, forks threads, joins, etc.
Publish event, wait for event, etc.
Orchestration ServiceSophisticated Process Flow
EventStream
EventSourceEvent
Source EventSink
EventSink
Event
Rules
EventManager
Events
IF (IBM Price) < (IBM VWAP) THEN (Buy IBM)
Event Stream ProcessingAggregating and Correlating Events
Order count <100
Order count <100
Event filtering rules
Aggregation of events
Event detection patterns
Not all events pass through
Event generation, event history
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Top Ten Emerging TechnologiesThe Information Management Group
Master Data ManagementText Analytics
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What is Master Data Management?
Decouples master information from individual applicationsBecomes a central, application independent resourceSimplifies ongoing integration tasks and new app developmentEnsure consistent master information across transactional and analytical systemsAddresses key issues such as data quality and consistency proactively rather than “after the fact” in the data warehouse
Historical /AnalyticalSystems
Existing Applications
MasterData
MasterData
Existing Applications
MasterData
MasterData
Existing Applications
MasterData
MasterData
Master DataManagement
System
NewApplications
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Text Analytics: Reaching back into the information pipeline
Academic Publications
Patents
Alternative Press
Trade Publications
Chat Rooms
Personal Web Sites
Online New Sites
News Groups
News Groups
Chat Rooms
e-commerce sites Chat
RoomsChat
RoomsChat
RoomsChat Rooms
News Groups
News Groups
News Groups
Chat Rooms
Personal Web Sites
Personal Web Sites
Personal Web Sites
Personal Web Sites Personal
Web Sites
Personal Web Sties
Personal Web Sites
Personal Web Sites
Chat Rooms
News Groups
Online New Sites
Online New SitesOnline
New Sites
Online New Sites
Online New Sites
Online New Sites
Online New Sites
Alternative Press
Alternative Press Patents
Patents
Patents
Trade Publications
Trade Publications
Trade Publications
Research ReportsNews
Magazines
PeriodicalMagazines
PeriodicalMagazines
NewsMagazines
Information ContinuumInformation ContinuumInformation ContinuumRawRaw Synthesized
Timeliness of InformationTimeliness of InformationTimeliness of InformationInstantaneousInstantaneous Historical
AnticipateAnticipate EventsEvents Take Preemptive ActionTake Preemptive Action
e-commerce sites
e-commerce sites
ReactReact
Between 80 and 90 percent of information on the Internet and corporate networks is unstructured.
Goldman Sachs, March 2001
Current decision pointCurrent decision point
New decision pointNew decision point
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Top Ten Emerging TechnologiesThe Web 2.0 Group
Tools: RSS, AJAX, PHPStandards: REST, XHTML Techniques: Wikis, Blogging, Mash-ups, Tagging
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The Web 2.0 Landscape .. A different way of thinking
The Web as
“The Platform”
Tools: RSS, AJAX, PHP,
Ruby
Services, not packaged software
Architectural participation
Small pieces loosely joined, or
“re-mixed”
Harnessing collective
intelligence
Software that gets better as more people use it
Standards: REST, XHTML
Techniques: Mash-up, wiki,
tagging, blogging
Rich user experiences
Light-weight programming
models
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Art of the Possible: Situational Applications
Situational application development involves aggregating, customizing, or extending an existing collection of simple web services
- Built to solve an immediate, specific business problem
- Typically performed by non-traditional programmers (e.g., business professionals, analysts, other IT staff, etc.)
- Makes use of pre-existing software components or services such as spreadsheets, report generators or vertical business applications already in use
- Manipulates static and increasingly dynamic content – information-centric- Accelerated by a community-based development approach
Integration is pushed to the edges, just “good enough”for the task at hand…
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Rapid Growth of Domain-Specific ServicesExamples of companies offering services on the web today, and growing …
Terrafirma
SForce
NDFD XML
Google Maps API
FedEx Tracking
Online Tracking
DHL Web Services
Search, Maps
USPS Web Tools
E-Commerce
Repository for boutique services
PayPal
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Mash-upOne Mash-up definition from Wikipedia…a musical genre which, in its purest form, consists of the combination (usually by digital means) of the music from one song with the a cappella from another. Typically, the music and vocals belong to completely different genres. At their best, bastard pop songs strive for musical epiphanies that add up to considerably more than the sum of their parts.
List of stores
Google Map web service
NOAA Weather web service
SAP order fulfillment
RSS feed of top-selling items
Wiki commands to compose application
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Summary: Top Ten Emerging Technologies
10) Low power operation9) Micro-scale parallelization8) Application-Optimized Systems7) Event-Driven Architecture6) Master Data Management5) Text Analytics4) Web 2.0 Tools: RSS, AJAX, PHP3) Web 2.0 Standards: REST, XHTML 2) Web 2.0 Techniques: Wikis, Blogging, Mash-ups, Tagging
#1: Putting it all Together … Modeling
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Evolution Toward Business/Mission ModelingM
issi
on/B
usin
ess
Sem
antic
s
Flowcharts
Structured Analysis & Design
Object Oriented Analysis and Design
Mission Process Modeling
Mission Performance Modeling
Time
Mission Strategy/CONOPS Modeling
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Examples
E-CollabCenter.com
GCSS-AF
National Weather Service
IBM Business Consulting Services
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IBM’s E-CollabCenter.comSecure Real Time Awareness and Information Sharing for the Warfighter
Shared Information through Web Conferences
(with or without Audio/Video)
Real Time Shared Situational Awareness
World-wide Instant Messaging with DoD Personnel
Shared Information through Persistent Chat Rooms
IBM Software GroupIBM SOA References
SOA, Composing Business Value, from IT Assets © 2006 IBM Corporation27
U.S. Air Force: Free developers to spend more time creating value-added business solutions that can scale across entire organization
Set Direction
Execute Roadmap
Realize BusinessValue
Delivering Business Value: Has gained huge scale efficiencies Has avoided significant software redevelopment costsAble to deliver new capabilities more quickly and cost-effectively than before
Challenge: Point-to-point interfaces between Air Force combat support systems was staggering & costly to maintain
Through greater IT flexibility: Able to have single-sign-on access to more than 200 operational services and capabilities
Business Driven Decision: Needed a well-designed open architecture to prevent its technology from becoming obsolete thus creating unstable, and fragmented systemsSystem modernizations were hampered by the need to support or use proprietary mechanisms to exchange data
SOA
IBM Software GroupIBM SOA References
SOA, Composing Business Value, from IT Assets © 2006 IBM Corporation28
National Weather Service: Successfully maintain the system on an ongoing basis as changes are required
Set Direction
Execute Roadmap
Realize BusinessValue
Business Driven Decision:Needed to modernize the current legacy systems, to allow expansion of capabilities
to handle significant increases in both the volume & size of messages & transactionsA significant contributing factor to the increased size of messages is the
advancement of graphics depicting radar and weather images
Delivering Business Value: Throughput has more than doubled, providing over 40 percent more efficiency with the new messaging backbone based on open standards
Challenge: Maintain full capabilities in the event of extreme system failure or attack
Through greater IT Flexibility: Allows more than half a million messages worldwide on a daily basis
SOA
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What Have We Learned: Levels of Integration1. Swivel Chair/Clip Board Integration
- 1960’s – present- One system, one screen, one “service”- Caused by “silos” and generally strongly protected and entrenched
2. Integration at the “glass”- 199X – present- From Browser based aggregation- To a sophisticated role based portal
3. EAI – Enterprise Application Integration- 1990’s to present- Workflow or BPM, current core standard is BPEL
4. Application Integration- Eco-systems around an “application” (e.g. ERP)- ETL (Extract, Transform, Load)- Information Streaming (e.g. Ground Stations)
5. Information Federation- Reach out for Information, aggregate “query”- Search (structured and unstructured)
So why is this important?
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Swivel Chair Integration: The End Result?
