Topographic Dependency of Topographic Dependency of Rainfall Characteristics from Rainfall Characteristics from the Sierra Madre Occidental the Sierra Madre Occidental

in Northwest Mexicoin Northwest Mexico

NERN Project Team: NCAR, U. Arizona, U. Sonora, IMADES, ITSON, NOAA-CPC, Hampton U.

29th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction WorkshopOctober 20, 2004

Outline of Presentation:Outline of Presentation:

• Brief overview of the precipitation event monitoring network in Mexico for the 2004 NAME-EOP

• Recent findings from the NERN with emphasis on the diurnal cycle

• Complimentary activities

NEXRAD Yuma

NCAR SPOL

SMN Guasabe

SMN El Palmito

SMN Cd. Obregon

SMN Los Cabos

NEXRAD Tucson

NEXRAD El Paso

Radar Umbrella Radius: Approx. 150 km

NEXRAD San Angelo

NEXRAD Midland

NERN-Spol Radar Network:NERN-Spol Radar Network:

Pluvióm etros insta lados en e l estado de Sonora para e l proyecto N AM E 2004

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NAME Simple Rain Gauge NAME Simple Rain Gauge NetworkNetwork

• 141 Gauges• Daily Reporting

NERN Configuration:NERN Configuration:

• 87 Event logging, tipping bucket raingages

• 6 major W-E transects traversing SMO

• Major improvement in topographic and temporal sampling of precipitation

• Installed 2002-2003, in operation through spring of 2006

• Not available in real-time

Contacts: gochis@rap.ucar.edu, watts@fisica.uson.mx, garatuza@itson.mx

7/1/02 8/1/02 9/1/02 10/1/02 11/1/0212/1/02 1/1/03 2/1/03 3/1/03 4/1/03 5/1/03 6/1/03 7/1/03 8/1/03 9/1/03 10/1/03 11/1/03

HermosilloLa Colorada

TecoripaTonichiYecora

TacupetoRos. Tesopaco

PericosBadiraguato

Santa AnaTameapa

SoyatitaTecusiapaEl Frijolar

DoloresGpe Y Calvo

El VergelRMO S. José

El OjitoHgo del Parral

CreelPitorreal

S. RafaelEj. Arroyo Ancho

P. A. GlzTomochiEl PericoYepachicMaycoba

S. NicolásUres

MazocahuiMoctezuma

HuasabasMatachic

TemosachicEl Largo

Cd. MaderaOcampo

MorisRMO Sta Rosa

El FuerteChoix

El MezquiteMazatán

El Novil loSahuaripa

BacadehuachiNacori ChicoM. Tres Rios

N A M E (Stage 1)

Graph showing the data availability for the raingauges. A discontinuity in the line, it means that there is no data .

Transect 6 2003 Jul-Aug Total Precipitation

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Transect 5 2003 Jul-Aug Total Precipitation

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Transect 4 2003 Jul-Aug Total Precipitation

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Transect 3 2003 Jul-Aug Total Precipitation

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Transect 2 2003 Jul-Aug Total Precipitation

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Transect 1 2003 Jul-Aug Total Precipitation

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NAME Physiographic NAME Physiographic RelationshipsRelationships

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Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Frequencyof Precipitation Frequency

2002-2003 Jul-Aug Diurnal Cycle of Hourly Precipitation Frequency (NERN)

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Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Frequencyof Precipitation Frequency

2002-2003 Jul-Aug Diurnal Cycle of Hourly Precipitation Frequency (NERN)

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Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle of Precip. Frequencyof Precip. Frequency

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Netw ork Mean

Jul-Aug ’03 Transect Mean Diurnal CycleJul-Aug ’03 Transect Mean Diurnal Cycle

Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle of Intensityof Intensity

2002-2003 Jul-Aug Diurnal Cycle of Hourly Precipitation Intensity (NERN)

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Precipitation Analyses: Extreme Precipitation Analyses: Extreme Precipitation, Maximum Hourly IntensityPrecipitation, Maximum Hourly Intensity

• Popular theme: Jones et al. Extreme precip and MJOPopular theme: Jones et al. Extreme precip and MJO Saha CFS extreme precip validationSaha CFS extreme precip validation Kunkel Extreme precip. 1895-2003Kunkel Extreme precip. 1895-2003

• What is an extreme? S. Saha “Large departure from What is an extreme? S. Saha “Large departure from normal” (>= 2normal” (>= 2, 1.5, 1.5))

Precipitation Analyses: Extreme Precipitation Analyses: Extreme Precipitation, Maximum Hourly IntensityPrecipitation, Maximum Hourly Intensity

Jul-Aug 2002-2003            

Elevation Bands Network B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6

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Number of Gages 76 20 12 5 18 14 7

Avg. Max. Intensity   37.4 28.9 26.6 23.1 21.0 19.5

Std. Dev. Max. Intensity   19.8 9.2 21.4 8.7 5.5 6.2

Abs. Max. Intensity   78.5 43.2 47.3 38.6 31.8 32.5

               

Maximum Intensity-Duration Envelope of Jul-Aug-Sep '02-'03 Precipitation as a Funciton of Elevation

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Gulf Surges During 2003 – NERN Gulf Surges During 2003 – NERN AnalysisAnalysis

CPC-NERNJul-Aug 03Total Precipitation

CPC-NERNAug 02Total Precipitation

Quantifying Quantifying Uncertainty in Uncertainty in QPE ProductsQPE Products

• Difference in monthly and seasonal precipitation in CPC daily gridded analyses and NERN

• Appear to be regions of persistently high uncertainty

• Useful a value-analysis of NERN gauges in formation of a long-term observing network

Complimentary Activities: Isotopic Complimentary Activities: Isotopic AnalysisAnalysis

• Evaporation of falling rain appears to be significant only in the desert climate of the three northwestern stations (Tucson, Mazocahui and Huasabas). Trend in O18 values from northwest to southeast is mainly a function of station altitude.• The samples generally plot close to the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) but do show evidence of some interannual variability (Courtesy of Chris Estoe, U. Arizona)

Isotopic Fractionation of Monsoon Rainwater - Summer 2002

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Tucson Summer 02

Cd. Obregon Summ. 02

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GMWL: dD=8.13*d18O+10.8NERN-02: dD=6.61*d18O + 1.48

Isotopic Fractionation of Monsoon Rainwater - Summer 2003

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GMWL: dD=8.13*d18O+10.8NERN-03: dD=5.97*d18O-5.65

NAME Community ArchivesNAME Community Archives

• Hydrological Data (NHWG-Action Plan)– Daily Reports from the CNA from Sonora (and Sinaloa)– Streamflow, reservoir levels, precipitation, pan evaporation– Currently in Excel Spreadsheets– Will be distributed via JOSS NAME Data Catalog

• WRF Modeling Archive– Jul 1 – Sep 1, 2004– 2x Daily 48-hr Forecasts– GFS Initialization and Boundary Forcing– 12 km horizontal resolution, 31 vertical layers– Available to community via NCAR Mass Store (1.22 Gb)

• Photo Archive– UCAR Digital Image Library

(https://www.fin.ucar.edu/ucardil/default.jsp)

– NOAA Photo Library (http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/)

Precipitation Analyses: Topographic Precipitation Analyses: Topographic Dependence of the Diurnal Cycle of Wet Dependence of the Diurnal Cycle of Wet Day Rain RateDay Rain Rate

2002-2003 Jul-Aug Diurnal Cycle of Hourly Precipitation Intensity (NERN)

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