torino, january, 15 2019 stefano gollinucci vodafone italy … · 2019-01-17 · opt dpi data...

35
C2 General Torino, January, 15 th 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy Transport Network Operation [email protected] +39 347 2270066

Upload: others

Post on 30-Jun-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Torino, January, 15th 2019

Stefano Gollinucci

Vodafone Italy

Transport Network Operation

[email protected]

+39 347 2270066

Page 2: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Agenda

Network architecture overview

IP backhauling, IP Core and underlying TX

IP MPLS

IP Core overview

Challenges: traffic growth, latency, resiliency

Network operation evolution

1

2

3

4

5

2

6

Page 4: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Agenda

Network architecture overview

IP backhauling, IP Core and underlying TX

IP MPLS

IP Core overview

Challenges: traffic growth, latency, resiliency

Network operation evolution

1

2

3

4

5

4

6

Page 5: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Transport network: mobile-fixed convergence on IP networks

5

PE

PE

PE

PE

IP Back-hauling AS IP Core AS

Optical DWDM Long DistanceOptical DWDM MAN

PoC3

~500 PoC2

PoC1

Mobile Domain

Fixed Domain

Underlying TX

MicroWave

32 Core sites

~20,000 sites

Page 6: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

RMX

RM1

GE1

RM4

ATB

VR1

SOR

CTG

LEV

LIB

OBT

CIV

PRT

GAL

TDI

LOI

COR

OLG

MALROG

BSK

ALT

TNT

CIS

BOR

VEA PAL

ANM

SBM

CAS

APR

CAN

PIGRCS

VAL

INV

LAT

CAP

GIO

CIT

LCG

SGV

FIR

RIO

PIN

CRU

SVB

IMP

UMT

SLU

MAM

THI

OSK

TEO

ORO

GAV

MUR

VIL

MI4

MI3

MI5

CO1

VA1

BS1

BG1

BBG TNB

VIB

BL1PN1

TV1

PD1

RO1

FE1

UDB

TRI

AN2

FR1

LT1

RMA

RM3

MOB

MAN

PR1

PCB

CR1

PI1

GR1

TO2

TO1CN1

SV1

IMB

PI2

TOA

FG1

CE1NA1

FI1

AR1

BO2

BO1

VE1

ALBPV1

VCC

LI1

TR1

VT1 PE2

MS1

LU1

PT1

CA2

OR1

SS1

OT1

NU1

BI1

RE1

MN1

RI1

AQ1

TE1

BN1

GO1BOR

CAJ

CB1

SI1

OG1

TER

SPB

BLC

IM1

BGK

SDO

TARPOL

INS

CAR

BR1

TA1

KR1

CDL

GROLTB LTC

TUP

POM

TUP

SALSCG

LAG

CTV

BAR

MOT

GRSSCG

BAR

VLG

SIS

SOV

RCBBRL

LAM

ROS

RCT

TAO

LEB

NA2

MT1PZB

BA1

BA2

CZ2

CS1

VV1

MEI

AV1

SA1

RCA

FGB

NOL

CAG

MZM

GIX

MIX

MIY

BT1

TAT

FIY

RMS

INV

NA1a

NAY

TOY

PDY VEN

BOY

PRN

42

41

33

39

37

37

37

32

32

33

36 36

31

31

30

30

26

26

27

27

24

24

17

17

3

1

1

3

2 2

2

1212

4

4

6

65

7

14

CH1

VSM

PSK

BAY

GEN

21

18

PRS

PIS

MOI

ALS

MES

PAT

SAG

CFL

BAG

SCL

CNU

SGJ

SCC

LCT

PA1

EN1 CT2

CTN

SR1

RG1CL1AG1

TPB

TP1

MAZ

CTY

9

8

10

10

1111

COD

BSKBES

41

SAV

BZB

TS1

14

CZT

MC1

AP1

MGR

MSV

23

FOL FBR

PG1PGT

23

CHR

RAV

PES

RAB RNB

PS1

FO2 RNT

PMZ

BIT

FOG

7

5

MAL

VIZ

AOA

VBA

39MI1

CNSTVS

LOI

MON

FER

ROV

PCZ

NOV

MI14

MI11

MI13

MID

CSX

SPM

17

ME1

8

9

34 34

35 35

INV

PI22

MI24 MI23VCQ

TO21

BDQ

ALQ

GEQ

CGQ

SAQ

RM21

CIQ

ORQ

CAQ

RM24

MIQ

CTQ

SOQ

REQ

BOQ

BO22

BO21

LOQ

FIQ

PEQ

COQ

TDQ

GAQRMQ

FI21

MOQ

TOQ

MI25

MI21

11

2

2

3

3

4

5

5

59

59

5454

51

5152

52

57 57

58 58

5757

45

45

60 60

61

182121

49

49

46

46

48

48

51

5156

56

50

50

54

54

55

56

56

55

55

47 47

MIQ MZQ RZQ

VRQ

CMQ

PD21

FEQ

FOQ

PSQ

CHQ

FMQ

AAQ

PE22

TEQ

FGQ

ADQ

CNQ

BA22

GRQNA22NA21

RIQ

LTQ

VEQ

DUQ

CDQ

MTQ

NAQ

ARX

18

PET

SVC

OLT

4

2

62

62

63

63

RC1

CAJ

INV

POG

SGI

61TRG

ACQ

AFR

42

DWDM (Dense Wavelength Division Mux)

3rd window (1,550 nm)

240 ROADM nodes (Reconfigurable optical add-drop mux)

140 regeneration nodes

10/100/200Gbits optical channels

The underlying TX layer: DWDM

Transponder

Mux

DemuxDCM

Amplifier

EDFA

TX

RX

Amplifier

EDFA

Host

Host

Page 7: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Agenda

Network architecture overview

IP backhauling, IP Core and underlying TX

IP MPLS

IP Core overview

Challenges: traffic growth, latency, resiliency

Network operation evolution

1

2

3

4

5

7

6

Page 8: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

MPLS

8

MPLS (Multi Protocol Label Switching):

Make it possible to segregate traffic flow through the creation of VPNs (Virtual Private

Networks)

Manage traffic routing implementing a FEC (Forwarding Equivalence Class), that is a

group of IP packets which are forwarded in the same manner, over the same path,

and with the same forwarding treatment. While in a plain IP network the FEC is

usually determined at each hop, on an MPLS network the FEC is determined once, at

the ingress of the network.

Routing is based on distribution and swap of labels between routers rather than less

efficient IP routing table lookup

Traffic engineering is supported

Fast re-routing (<50 msec) in case of faults

Page 9: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

The MPLS Shim Header

IP PacketMPLS Shim Header(s)L2 Header

Label TTLSEXP

4 bytes

20 bits 3 bits 1 bit 8 bits

Bottom of label stack

EXP Bits: QoS

Page 10: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

MPLS Header

max number of headers in the stack is 3 => MTU must increased by 3 x 4 = 12 bytes

IP PacketL2 HeaderForwarding Label

(LDP)

IP PacketL2 Header

IP PacketL2 HeaderTraffic Eng FRRLabel (RSVP)

Forwarding Label(LDP)

IP PacketL2 HeaderForwarding Label

(LDP)L3 VPN Label

(MP-BGP)

IP PacketL2 HeaderForwarding Label

(LDP)L3 VPN Label

(MP-BGP)Traffic Eng FRRLabel (RSVP)

Page 11: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Global RT VRF A VRF B VRF C

PE

VRF A

VRF B

VRF C

VRF C

CE1

CE2CE3

CE4

Other

MPLS PEs support the creation VRFs. Each VRF

constitutes a separate routing and forwarding table,

isolated from the others.

The “regular” routing table is called Global

Routing Table, and routes/packets default to this

table when a VRF is not specified

VRF names have only local significance. Having the

same VRF name among different routers does not a

mean the two VRFs are part of the same VPN.

Each VRF has an associated (unique to the router)

Route Distinguisher (RD). The RD is used by MP-

BGP to avoid confusing routes with overlapping IP

addresses from different VPNs. It’s not used to

decide which route will be part of which VPN (the

Route Target is used instead for this).

Even if it’s common to use the same RD for “similar”

VRFs on different PEs, this is not always the case.

Each physical/logical router interface can be

associated (at most) to one VRF. By doing so that

interface will be bound to the corresponding VRF. If

a VRF is not specified, the interface will be bound to

the Global RT.

One common situation is to have many CEs, each

connected with a physical interface to the PE, with

each interface associated to one of the PE’s VRFs.

RD 100 RD 150 RD 200

VRF – VIRTUAL ROUTING AND FORWARDING

Page 12: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

PE1

PE2

PE3

PE4

For example, using a RT value to denote a specific VPN,

we can build full-mesh VPNs, completely isolated one

from each other.

In this example we have two full-meshed VPNs, one

associated with RT 100 and the other with RT 200.

MP-iBGP

RT 100

RT 100

RT 100

RT 100

RT 200

RT 200

RT 100

RT 100

RT 200

RT 200

GRT

GRT

GRT

GRT

import

export

export

import

export

import

import

export

import

export

VPN – VIRTUAL PRIVATE NETWORK

Page 13: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

P

BGP

PECE PE

CE

10.10.10.0/24

Customer

“PINOCOM”

Milano

Customer

“GINONET”

Milano

CE

10.10.10.0/24

VRF PINOCOM

VRF GINONET_MIVRF GINONET_BO

VRF PINOCOM

* PE-CE Protocol

(OSPF, BGP, Static

routes, …)RD 30722:100

RD 30722:200

RD 30722:100

RD 30722:300

70

RT 30722:80

VPN LABEL: 6666

30722:200:10.10.10.0/24

30722:100:10.10.10.0/24RT 30722:70

VPN LABEL: 5555

80

80

5555

Route Distinguisher

4 byte – To manage IP

address overlapping

VPNv4 Address

Family

Route Target – BGP Extended

Community (4 byte) – To

import/export routes in VRFs

VPN Labels are piggybacked on MP-BGP Announcements

Customer

“PINOCOM”

Bologna

Customer

“GINONET”

Bologna

10.10.10.1

to 10.10.10.110.10.10.0/24

MP-

Multi-Protocol BGP

70

✓P P

Page 14: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

QOS

14

QOS class mapping in MPLS networks done using EXP bits.

Three strict priority classes, for voice services and signaling.

Data traffic is assigned Default, Standard or Enhanced classes, with WRED algorithm ti handle

congestion

Class DSCP EXP bits

Queuing

Algorithm Scheduler

Control Plane CS6, CS7 6,7 - PQ

Voice EF 5 - PQ

Enhanced/Standard

AF31, AF32,

AF41, AF42 1,2,3,4 WRED

PQ, CBWF,

MDRR

Default default 0 WRED

PQ, CBWF,

MDRR

Page 15: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

WRED

15

K = % discard

0%

20%

Queue length

Starting from A, WRED

starts drop packets

WRED drops the 100 % of

packets at C (Higher

threshold)

A C

K

Before A (Lower

threshold), there is

buffering without Drops

100%

% packet discard

WRED (Weighted Random Early Detection) is a congestion notification method for TCP/IP

queues. It is designed to manage bursty traffic (i.e. 4G)

Page 16: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Agenda

Network architecture overview

IP backhauling, IP Core and underlying TX

IP MPLS

IP Core overview

Challenges: traffic growth, latency, resiliency

Network operation evolution

1

2

3

4

5

16

6

Page 17: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

IP Core – POC1 Core sites

17

IP Core is deployed in 32 Core sites, each of them including:

Redundant POC1 Aggregation routers to collect traffic from IP backhauling POC2

network

BNG (BRAS) servers to manage fixed customers data traffic towards IP Core

2G, 3G controllers to manage mobile traffic, they forward voice traffic towards Voice

Core, and data traffic towards Data Core

Redundant 4G SecureGateways, terminating IPSEC tunneling, and forwarding VOLTE

(Voice over 4G) towards IMS Voice Core and data traffic towards Data Core

Voice Core systems, MSS, MGW, IMS, etc.

Data Core systems, MME, GTW, etc.

Redundant PE routers as MPLS ingress points of IP core

Page 18: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

IP Core – Core sites overview

PE

PE

POC1 - CORE SITES

POC1

Aggregation router

RNC

(3G)

SecureGW

(4G)

BSC

(2G)

BNG

(BRAS- fixed)

POC2

POC2

MSS/MGW

MME/GTW

BACKHAULING

IP CORE

Page 19: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

IP Core Network

19

The IP Core consists of:

64 PE routers (Label Switching Edge) located in 32 Core sites

8 P routers (Label Switching Router) in a two-layers fully redundant architecture

8 Route Reflectors to manage iBGP sessions scalability issue

Dedicated PEs towards Internet, with cache servers to increase efficiency with OTTs

traffic and to announce eBGP routes

DPI (Deep Packet Inspection) layer to implement optimisation policies on Internet

traffic

Internet Peering points as well as interconnections with internatonal carrier in Roma,

Milano

Anti-DDOS systems

Page 20: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

IP Core Network Layout

20

PE

PEPE PE

PE

PE

LSR (LABEL SWITCHING ROUTERS)

PE (Provider Edge)

P

P

P P P

PCE

C&W

DPI (DEEP PACKET INSPECTION)

INTERNET EDGE + CACHE SERVERS

CORE SITES

BRAS

(fixed)

RNC

(3G)

SECGW

(4G)

PEERING (RM,MI)

ANTI-DDOS

MAN INTERNET (RM,MI)

Page 21: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

IP Core security: a few examples

21

DDOS attack

An ANTI-DDOS system elaborates real time traffic profiles from the MAN

Internet routers. When an anomaly is detected the system commands the

routers to deviate the attacked prefix towards the system itself. The system

implements a deep inspection algorithm to clean it up and and re-inject the

traffic to the routers

BGP hijacking

BGP protocol is used to announce IP prefixes (i.e. up to /16). Whenever an

operator announce a more specific route (i.e. /24) by mistake or aiming at

illegal scope the traffic is deviated. Operators can detect prefix

announcements on routers which are visible on public platforms like looking

glass. The remedy is to announce a more specific route. Carriers usually

implement automatic consistency checks between BGP routes and RIPE

registrations

Page 22: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Agenda

Network architecture overview

IP backhauling, IP Core and underlying TX

IP MPLS

IP Core overview

Challenges: traffic growth, latency, resiliency

Network operation evolution

1

2

3

4

5

22

6

Page 23: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Challenges: traffic trends and capacity management

23

Data traffic growth is both technology and market driven

Non linear effects play an increasing role in traffic profiles:

Gaming platform new releases

Simutaneous software upgrades downloads

Streaming of special events, football matches, concerts, etc.

Cache servers increasing in number and moved towards the customer to relieve

bandwidth requirements and costs on long distance

Increase of direct peering points

QOS!

SDN (Software Defined Network) offers capabilities to support and enhance capacity

planning processes

Page 24: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Latency, latency, latency!

24

Throughput is depending on latency!

IoT applications rely on low latency

Real time applications with very low latency

requirements also to drive the future evolution of 5G

mobile networks

QOS is key to manage buffering and queuing privileging

the low latency applications

Moving intelligence towards peripheral data center to

shorten the physical path and reduce RTTs

Page 25: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Resiliency (I)

25

Resiliency policy: active-standby versus load sharing

Active-standby optimizes latency, since primary and secondary path are

likely to have different RTTs being on different physical paths. On the

other end load sharing is in principle more efficient, and makes sure

there is no unused link in the network minimising the risk of ‘silent’

issues

Minimum-link configuration

Due to technical constraints primary/secondary paths may consist in

10/100Gbits link bundles. In case of a failure on a single link the primary

path remains still active but with reduced capacity. The minimum-link

parameter defines the minimum number of links active on the bundle

which has to trigger switching on full capacity secondary path to avoid

congestion

SDN (Software Defined Network) advanced features include

automatic re-configuration and intelligent re-routing

Page 26: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Resiliency (II)

26

Critical components and risk analysis

Likelihood of double failures has to be carefully

estimated, taking into account critical

components failure rate and the expected time to

recovery. For example islands connectivity via

submarine cables shows a relatively low failure rate

but a potentially high time to recovery

Disaster recovery

Extraordinary events like heartquakes, flood,

accidental fire may seriously impact service

continuity of telco networks, which play strategic

roles during an emergency situation. Specific

countermeasures on site robustness, let alone

recovery plans have to be designed and

periodically tested to ensure Business Continuity

Page 27: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Agenda

Network architecture overview

IP backhauling, IP Core and underlying TX

IP MPLS

IP Core overview

Challenges: traffic growth, latency, resiliency

Network operation evolution

1

2

3

4

5

27

6

Page 28: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Monitoring, preventive maintenance, robots (I)

28

Real time monitoring is usually done looking at alarms

propagated by network equipments. End to End service KPIs and

traffic performance are also used though, being more effective

to quickly identify the root-cause

Extensive preventive checks on disturbances, event logs,

misconfigurations do provide useful hints to prevent failures

taking the proper actions proactively

Automation is key to improve both reactivity and prevention,

providing intelligent correlation engines, relieving humans in

repetitive tasks and zeroing the risk of missing critical

information

Page 29: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Monitoring, preventive maintenance, robots (II)

29

Growing complexity makes increasingly difficult and risky

manual tasks (i.e. manual correlation on VRF/VPN configuration

data, or massive parameter changes in a large MPLS network )

Traditional Network Inventory systems based on manual

documentation could be hard to maintain and is prone to errors

in matching data between network layers

SDN can provide self discovery inventories, error free and

automatically up to date, matching data between different layers

The level of automation is of paramount importance to

overcome the complexity in trouble-shooting, to minimize errors

in configuration tasks

Page 30: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

SDN impact on operation: recap

30

SDN solutions:

provide standardised Northbound APIs and third parties

management

support DevOps and programmable interfaces

discovery based inventory

provide optional analytics and Artificial Intelligence

modules for advanced features lik automatic re-routing

or predictive maintenance

Page 31: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

From Preventive To Predictive

31

Extensive routine checks have been improving quality and reducing outage probability,

Today exploiting big data and applying machine learning algorithms is expected to boost

maintenance processes efficiency and achieve perfect quality.

Page 32: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

Predictive Models

32

Deep learning/machine learning algorithms (Neural Networks, Random

Forest, Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, etc.) are able to correlate

events, identify patterns and make predictions

Precision, Recall, AUC KPIs used to estimate suitability to provide reliable

predictions

Algorithms need training and fine-tuning.

Training could take advantage on expert hints rather than relying on a

black box approach

Nr. of events correctly predicted TRUE

Nr. Of events predicted TRUE

PRECISION

Nr. of events correctly predicted TRUE

Nr. of events actually occurred TRUE

RECALL

5

15= 33%

5

10= 50%

Prediction

Re

ali

ty

False True

Fa

lse

Tru

e

80 10

5 5

Reality and model coincide Reality and model diverge

Confusion Matrix

Page 33: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

From predictive to prescriptive

33

Deep learning/Machine learning predictions are usually ‘blind’, they

predict what will happen but cannot tell you why it will happen

Algorithms can learn from humans and provide more insights on root

causes

Predictions should pave the way to proactive action: not an obvious step!

Helping to govern an ever increasing complexity in an effective and

efficient way is the ultimate goal

Page 34: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM

C2 General

In summary:

34

IP networks are a key component of telco networks, they are growing in

size and complexity, a growth that is going to promise considerable

challenges

SDN, automation and the promising frontier of Artificial Intelligence are

likely to become an indispensable aid for both design and operation

IP technologies do require from engineers high profile, very specialized

skills

Nevertheless the capability to cooperate with ‘clients’ as well as experts

from other areas, as well as the unrelenting thirst to learn new things will

be the key for success

Page 35: Torino, January, 15 2019 Stefano Gollinucci Vodafone Italy … · 2019-01-17 · OPT DPI Data Service FW. C2 General Agenda Network architecture overview ... CDL GRO LTB LTC TUP POM