Toronto Future Blue Bin Project

Vincent Sferrazza, City of Toronto

Maria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental

OWMA AGM 2nd March, 2011

Presentation Outline

Vincent Sferrazza – Introduction to Project and How Information from Toronto Future Blue Bin Study was used in Strategic Business Planning Process

Maria Kelleher –Toronto Future Blue Bin Study Research

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SWMS – Customer/Client Base

450,000 single unit homes

452,000 multi-unit homes

20,000 small commercial/institutional

6,000 litter/recycle bins / 1,000 Special Events Per Year

City Agencies, Boards, Commissions & Divisions

Private commercial and industrial waste accepted at Transfer Stations and Landfill

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2011 Approved Operating Budget by Service Gross Expenditure

(in Millions)

Gross Expenditure - $342.6M

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Summary of 2011 Capital Expenditures by Project ($122.5M)

Diversion Facilities & Systems, $82.5M,

68%

Collection Yard Asset Management,

$4.3M,

3%

Perpetual Care of Closed Landfill,

$10.6M,

9%

Transfer Station Asset Management,

$8.9M,

7%

Green Lane Landfill,

$16.2M,

13%

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2011 Revenue Sources ($342.6M)

Volume Based Rate Revenue

$239.6M,

70%

Sale of Recyclable Materials

$19.6M,

6%

City of Toronto - Waste Fees

$39.0M,

12%

WDO Funding

$14.7M,

4%

Paid Commercial Waste

$17.9M,

5%

Internal Recoveries & Other

$8.0M,

2%

Other External Revenue

$3.8M,

1%

Includes all Service Level Changes and excludes New and Enhanced

Residential Bag Tag Fees

Residential Bag Tag Fee (per Bag Tag) Percentage Change

Bag Tag $3.10 0.0%

2011 Residential Bulk Collection Fees

Fee Structure Bin Fee Rebate Net Cost

Small Bin - Base Fee $191.30 $185.00 $6.30

Fee for excess waste: un-compacted (per cubic yard) $13.27 $13.27

Fee for excess waste: compacted (per cubic yard) $26.55 $26.55

2011 Residential Curbside Collection Fees

Bin Size Bin Fee Rebate Net Cost

Small Bin $221.16 $224 $2.84 credit

Medium Bin $271.93 $224 $47.93

Large Bin $369.31 $224 $145.31

Extra Large Bin $428.36 $224 $204.36

Based on a 3.00% SWM annual rate increase:

Approved 2011 Residential Solid Waste Fees

*Effective Rate March 1, 2011 is 3.6%

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Background to Toronto Future Blue Bin Study

10-year Business Plan being developed

Need to understand materials and amounts in the future Blue Bin for business planning

Materials in Blue Bin are changing

Lifestyles and packaging are changing

Toronto Residential Garbage, Green Bin and Blue Bin tonnages all lower 2009 vs 2008

Need to understand what is going on and why

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Toronto Future Blue Bin Study

If Blue Bin material changes (e.g. more plastics, less newspapers)

Impacts on collection system

MRF designs need to change

Material revenues will be affected

Business Planning needs to take account of cost implications

High level study to provide directional information

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Toronto Blue Bin Material Revenues

71% to 75% of revenues from paper

ONP 31% of bale

10% of revenues from aluminum

10% to 12% of revenues from HDPE and PET

If paper decreasing, impacts on revenues could be significant

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Toronto Future Blue Bin Project Research

Maria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental

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Future Blue Bin Project Elements

Research future lifestyles

Research future packaging trends

Carry out “packaging audit”

Develop projections of Blue Bin tonnages and composition by material

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Predicting the Future Is Challenging The Dilbert Future

Read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards or crystal balls

Put well researched facts into sophisticated models

Bigger picture – life is changing and will continue to change

The future is not “more of the same” – not just faster computers, high tech cars, smarter homes, more TV channels

Large body of work by “futurists” used for this study

Review of Literature on the Future Futurists:

Centre for Future Studies; The Futurist

Forum for the Future; World Future Society, etc

More traditional literature: Canadian Food Trends to 2020

The Future Consumer (Capgemini, UK)

The Future of Consumer Products Industry (IBM Global)

Twilight of the American Newspaper

The MRF of Tomorrow,

Demographic Trends, etc.

Societal and Demographic Trends

The Internet has changed everything

Aging Canadians – we are living longer

Evolving Households…smaller households

Fewer Children

More 1-person households

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Lifestyle Trends

Changing meal patterns – fewer family dinners

Shifting expenditures – more take away food

Newer faces in Canada – larger variety of foods

More food shopping via internet – more food packaging

Convenience is king… • Re-sealable packages

• More ready to eat meals

• More plastic packaging

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The Death of Newspapers

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Growth in US Internet Sales (as % of total sales)

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Growth in Canadian Internet Sales ($ billion per year)

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Printed Paper Trends in Future Blue Bin

1. Decline in newspaper generation and recovery

2. Reduction in telephone directory distribution

3. Home offices/working at home/printers in every home

1. – increase in fine paper

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Packaging Trends Light-weighting

Increase in multi-layer packaging

Material substitution (mostly plastic replacing glass, Al, steel)

More fruits/veg packaged in thermoform plastic

SUPs (stand up pouches)

Re-sealable packaging

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Lifestyle and Packaging Changes

More smaller single serve packages

More snack packaging

More ready cooked meals and take out packaging (in thermoform plastic)

Brand owner and retailer led initiatives

Sustainable packaging

Smart packaging – can tell when food is beginning to decay

Increase in bio-based packaging

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Lifestyle and Packaging Changes on Future Blue Bin

Relative amounts of fibre and containers will change over time

More plastic, less paper

Newsprint amounts will decrease over time

Toronto ONP down 15% 2008 to 2009

OCC will increase over time

Amount of plastic packaging will increase

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Packaging Audits

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Background To Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits

Identify extent to which consumer items purchased in Toronto stores were in packaging which is:

Recyclable now or

Could be recycled in the future or

Is unlikely to be recycled in the future

Look at packaging audit methods used elsewhere and modify to suit Toronto 2010 circumstances

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Packaging Audit Approaches From Other Jurisdictions “War on Waste” - UK Local Government Association

purchase basket of goods (30) in 8 different stores to compare packaging efficiency

Repeated 2007, 2008, 2009

The ULS (Use Less Stuff) Packaging Efficiency Study as it Relates To Waste Prevention (US)

300 products in different packaging formats

Repeated 1995, 2007

Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits

Purchased 150 items in large grocery store:

Consumer Price Index list (60 items) – reflected typical “shopping basket” in the early Blue Box years

Use Less Stuff (ULS) US report list

New products identified through store visit which would not have been popular when CPI started

New packaging formats which are gaining in popularity

Weighed empty package (each component) and package when full of product

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Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits Categorize each component as:

Recyclable now;

Recyclable in all plastic film program;

Recyclable in all plastics program;

Not recyclable for foreseeable future

“Normalize” the data to take account of typical annual purchases of each product.

24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary

Briefing 29

Yogurt Packaging

24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary

Briefing 30

Campbells Soup – Steel Can

24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary

Briefing 31

Advil – Multiple Materials

24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary

Briefing 32

New Plastic Packaging Formats

24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary

Briefing 33

Re-sealable Caesar Salad– Convenience Food Growing Rapidly

24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary

Briefing 34

Cookies – Different Packaging Materials

24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary

Briefing 35

Stand Up Pouches (SUPs) – Growing Rapidly

24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary

Briefing 36

Toronto’s Plastic Resin Identifcation “Gun”

Packaging Audit Results By Weight

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Packaging Audit Conclusions Audit provides “snapshot” of the range of packaging

formats

Many packages are recycled in current Toronto program

“All film” program would increase diversion

Increase in thermoform PET for wide range of products

“All plastics” program would increase diversion

Many multi-layer packages which are not recyclable

Toronto Solid Waste Strategic Business Planning

Vincent Sferrazza, Director Policy and Planning, Solid Waste Management Services, City of Toronto

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Recycling Component of Business Plan

Future Blue Bin tonnages and composition impact on:

Collection

Processing

Markets

Revenues

Solid Waste utility needs to plan for impacts of changes

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Future Blue Bin Scenario Reviewed WDO Data on Trends for last 5 years

Three scenarios based on Forum for the Future DEFRA work in UK, modified for Canada/Toronto situation:

Status Quo – focus on regional

Fast Changes – good economy, increased oil prices, focus on global

Smaller World – bad economy, very high energy prices, focus on local

Developed “Most Likely Scenario” - Hybrid

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Toronto Solid Waste Strategic Business Planning Process

Projected 15% reduction in weight per household of printed paper and packaging in Blue Bin over 10 years:

-18% paper kg/hh

+17% plastic kg/hh

Metals – flat kg/hh

-50% glass kg/hh

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Strategic Business Plan

2010 Tonnage Map

Rates

Do No More

2020 Tonnage Map

2010 SF

Composition

2008 MF

ABCD

2020 price

2020

Composition

Kelleher

Environmental

70%

Do No More Rates 2011-20

70 Rates 2011-20

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Conclusions Future Blue Bin Study identified that the world is

changing at a rapid rate:

Lifestyles are changing

Packaging formats are changing

All of these changes impact on Toronto’s Solid Waste Business Planning process

Need to “refresh” the lifestyle and packaging research annually or bi-annually to catch new trends and plan for their impacts