torreycove’s 4thquarter 2019 market overview€¦ · © 2011 torreycove capital partners llc...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
www.torreycove.com
TorreyCove’s 4th Quarter 2019Market Overview
©2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners
Your Partner For Alternative Investment Solutions
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
$98.7
$160.7
$190.8$207.7
$228.1$210.1
$241.6$245.1
$302.9
Special Situations Fundraising | $ Billion
Market Overview 4Q19
Fundraising ActivityNorth America
BUYOUTS
• 4Q commitments: $57.6 billion across
buyout and mezzanine firms, a 47.1%
decrease from 4Q18 ($108.8 billion), and a
21.4% decrease from 3Q19 ($73.2 billion).
(Buyouts)
• As of December 2019, funds targeting over
$5.0 billion had received 50.8% of capital,
followed by funds targeting $1.0 to $5.0
billion with 35.5%. (Buyouts)
• The total funds raised LTM 4Q19 ($302.9
billion) outpaced LTM 4Q18 ($244.5 billion),
representing an increase of 23.9%.
(Buyouts)
• According to Buyouts, Blackstone Capital
Partners VIII is the largest fund raised so far
in 2019 and is also the only fund raised this
year over $20.0 billion with $26.0 billion
raised.
• Considering only industry-focused funds,
the healthcare sector raised $48.3 billion
through 4Q19, closely followed by high
technology, with $46.1 billion raised. The
next three are industrials, energy and
power, and consumer services, respectively
with $27.3 billion, $14.3 billion, and $8.9
billion raised. (Buyouts)
Buyout + Mezzanine Fundraising | $ Billion
VENTURE CAPITAL
• 4Q commitments: $23.0 billion, a 16.1%
decrease from 3Q19 ($27.4 billion) and a
decrease of 42.5% from the year prior ($40.0
billion). (PwC)
• The number of fund-closings totaled 1,324
during 4Q19, representing a 10.6% decrease
from 3Q19 when 1,481 funds closed
fundraisings. (PwC)
• First-time funds have raised $4.0 billion
across 35 funds in 2019. (Pitchbook)
• The 2019 median fund size increased by 4.7%
year-over-year (from $75.0 million to $78.5
million). This represents the second highest
level since 2007, when median fund size was
$133.0 million. (Pitchbook)
Venture Capital Fundraising | $ Billion
Source: Pitchbook & National Venture Capital Association
SPECIAL SITUATIONS
• Distressed / Turnaround Debt: $8.6 billion, a
1,923.1% increase from 3Q19 ($0.4 billion)
and a 484.2% increase from 4Q18 ($1.5
billion). (Thomson Reuters)
• Mezzanine: $2.1 billion, an 301.8% increase
from 3Q19 ($0.5 billion) and a 62.4%
decrease from 4Q18 ($5.5 billion). (Thomson
Reuters)
• Fund-of-Funds / Secondary Funds: $5.8
billion, a 45.3% increase from 3Q19 ($4.0
billion) and a 164.3% increase from 4Q18
($2.2 billion). (Thomson Reuters)
Source: Thomson ReutersSource: Buyouts, as of December 2019
Largest Active U.S. Fundraisers through 4Q19 Fund Size
BuyoutBlackstone Capital Partners VIII $26.0 billion
Advent International Global Private Equity IX $17.6 billion
Venture CapitalTCV X $3.2 billion
Andreessen Horowitz LSV Fund I $2.0 billion
Mezzanine NB Private Debt Fund III $1.7 billion
Distressed/Turnaround GSO Capital Solutions Fund III $7.1 billion
Fund of Funds Lexington Capital Partners IX $11.7 billion
2
Source: Thomson Reuters
$23.3 $24.7
$20.4
$34.9$36.9
$41.9
$33.9
$58.0
$46.3
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120 Turnaround/Distressed Debt
Secondary Funds
Other PE/Special Sits
Mezzanine Stage
Fund of Funds
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x Sr Debt/EBITDA
Sub Debt/EBITDA
Equity/EBITDA
Others
BUYOUTS
• According to Preqin, disclosed deal value
totaled roughly $49.8 billion in 4Q19, up
2.9% compared to 3Q19, when disclosed
deal value totaled $48.4 billion.
• The largest U.S.-sponsored deal to close in
4Q19 was the $6.0 billion acquisition of Tech
Data Corporation, executed by Apollo
Investment Fund IX. (Preqin)
• According to Preqin, the most active
dealmaker of 4Q19 was Wind Point Partners,
with ten deals closed during the quarter.
Followed by Audax Group (nine deals
closed), New MainStream Capital (seven
deals closed) and Hellman & Friedman, GI
Partners, & ABRY Partners (six deals closed
each).
• Information technology led 4Q19 with 103
deals closed during the quarter. Industrials
followed with 100 deals, while consumer
discretionary rounded out the top three,
with 83 deals closed in the industry. (Preqin)
• LBO purchase price multiples were 11.5x
EBITDA by the end of 4Q19, an 8.7% increase
when compared to 10.6x EBITDA at the end
of 2018. (S&P Global)
Market Overview 4Q19
Investment ActivityNorth America
Source: S&P M&A Stats – December 2019
VENTURE CAPITAL
• Venture capitalists invested $34.2 billion in
2,215 deals in 4Q19, up 8.3% in value
compared to 3Q19, when $31.6 billion went
into 2,724 deals. (Pitchbook)
• The software industry led all sectors during
the year, garnering $43.5 billion through
3,870 deals. Software deals were followed by
commercial services and pharma & biotech,
with $20.0 billion and $16.6 billion of capital
invested through 873 and 866 deals,
respectively. (NVCA)
U.S. LBO & VC Investment Activity | $ Billion
Source: Preqin & National Venture Capital Association –December 2019
Source: Thomson Reuters
LBO Purchase Price Multiples
3
U.S. 4Q Venture Investment by Stage
SPECIAL SITUATIONS
• Distressed / Turnaround Debt: There were
43 distressed/turnaround investments
during 4Q19 for a total value of $3.8 billion,
representing an increase of 22.9% in deal
count and a decrease of 68.2% in value
compared to 3Q19 (35 deals for $11.8
billion). (Thomson Reuters)
• Mezzanine: There were 57 mezzanine
investments during 4Q19 for a total value of
$0.7 billion, representing an increase of 7.6%
in deal count and a decrease of 77.0% in
value compared to 3Q19 (53 deals for $3.0
billion). (Thomson Reuters)
• Fund-of-Funds / Secondary Funds: There
were 39 fund-of-funds and secondary fund
investments during 4Q19 for a total value of
$0.5 billion, representing a decrease of 7.1%
in deal count compared to 3Q19 (42 deals).
(Thomson Reuters)
$140.6
$165.9
$199.0$191.9
$278.5
$202.4
$202.1
$281.4
$215.1
45.7 41.3 47.7
72.283.8 77.6
86.8
140.2 136.5
LBO Deal Value (Disclosed)
Venture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 Sum of Deal Value
No. of Deals
3.6%
19.2%
41.2%
29.6%
6.3%
Seed Early Expansion Later Other
115 deals
315 deals202 deals
356 deals
$23.0 billion
336deals
1,324 deals
Special Situations Investment Activity | $ Billion
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
Market Overview 4Q19
Investment Activity + ExitsNorth America
• According to Preqin, there was one
buyout-backed IPO in the U.S during
4Q19 totaling $0.1 billion in value.
• There were 150 buyout-backed M&A
exits in 4Q19 with a total valuation of
approximately $12.7 billion. Of the 23
deals with disclosed value, EnCap’s exit
of Felix Energy Holdings II was the largest
at $2.5 billion. (Preqin)
• Consumer & retail, materials, and energy
& utilities accounted for four buyout-
backed M&A exits each during 4Q19,
which each represents 17.4% of the total
exits. Information technology was the
fourth largest by deal count with three
deals. (Preqin)
Number of U.S.-based IPOs
Source: Preqin, Pitchbook & National Venture Capital Association
Number of U.S.-based M&A
• There was a decrease of 27.8% in deal
count and a decrease of 55.7% in deal
value during 4Q19 compared to 3Q19.
(Preqin)
• According to Pitchbook, U.S. venture-
backed M&A exits totaled 174 during
4Q19 with total disclosed value of $18.8
billion. This represents a decrease in
value and deal count when compared
with 3Q19 (223 deals, $42.6 billion).
• There were 80 U.S. venture-backed IPOs
during 2019 valued at $198.7 billion,
representing a 9.1% decrease in count
and 204.4% increase in value from 2018
where 88 IPOs were valued at $65.3
billion. (Pitchbook)
Source: Preqin, Pitchbook & National Venture Capital Association
DRY POWDER
• According to Preqin, SoftBank Investment Advisors
currently has the largest amount of dry powder at
$45.9 billion, followed by the Carlyle Group with
$38.5 billion and KKR with $28.7 billion.
• 17 of the top 25 fund managers by dry powder are
based in the U.S. (Preqin)
Source: Thomson Reuters, Preqin
SECONDARY BUYOUTS
• 42 secondary buyout transactions were
completed during 4Q19 for an aggregate deal
value of $8.2 billion.
Largest U.S. Liquidity Events in 4Q19Sponsors Company Value
PE-backed IPO (Multiple Sponsors)Brigham Minerals
(NYSE:MNRL)$0.1 billion
VC-backed IPO (Multiple Sponsors)Bill.com
(NYSE: BILL) $0.2 billion
PE-backed M&A EnCap Investments Felix Energy Holdings II $2.5 billion
VC-backed M&A (Multiple Sponsors) AveXis $8.7 billion
4
Global Dry Powder by Strategy | $ Billion
EXITS
980.0918.2
1,165.21,166.5
1,300.2
1,443.3
1,755.2
2,047.0
2,159.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Buyout Distressed PE
Growth Mezzanine
Other Real Estate
Venture
23.5
28.7
22.5
31.4 29.9
36.6
18.120.1
32.1
136
175
141
203 200
158
202
171 186
Deal Value ($B) No. of Deals
694 812 818
957 949 864 868
927 802
811
943 947
1,108 1,050
1,021 1,029
1,113
836
Venture-backed Buyout-backed
46
59
87
124
81
42
60
88
80
33 41
60 66 42
26
41
29
12
Venture-backed Buyout-backed
Source: Preqin
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information Source: Thomson Reuters
5.6
1.9
14.4
28.9
20.0
7.4
5.2 4.8 5.4
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Source: Thomson Reuters
Market Overview 4Q19
Europe
FUNDRAISING
• 4Q19 commitments: $27.9 billion,
representing a (79.5%) decrease from
3Q19 ($135.8 billion) and a 6.5% increase
from 4Q18 ($26.2 billion). (Thomson
Reuters)
• According to Thomson Reuters, the U.K.
accounted for 59.3% of funds raised in
Europe during 4Q19, followed by
Germany (12.8%), and France (10.1%).
• The decrease in funds raised during the
quarter stems from a substantial
decrease in fundraising in the U.K., $16.5
billion compared to $127.2 billion raised
in 3Q19.
• Additionally, Channel Islands, Italy and
Poland saw no fundraising activity,
despite raising $0.1 billion, $0.5 billion,
and $0.01 billion respectively, in the
quarter before. (Thomson Reuters)
• The largest fund to achieve a final closing
during the quarter was Permira VII ($12.1
billion), a London-based PE fund,
followed by Cinven VII ($11.2 billion).
(Preqin)
EXITS
• There were five PE-backed IPOs in 4Q19
compared with two during 3Q19 and three
during 4Q18. (Thomson Reuters)
• European IPO markets decreased €14.6
billion (40.0%) compared to the previous
year (2018), in which IPO volumes were
€36.7 billion. Despite Brexit, U.S. China trade
relations and U.S. Iran tensions, PwC is
cautiously optimistic on the European IPO
market in 2020. (PwC)
Europe Fundraising Activity | $ Billion
INVESTING
• Disclosed deal value totaled $42.4 billion
across 547 deals in 4Q19, up 71.4% in
deal value ($24.7 billion) and down
25.9% in deal count (738) from 3Q19.
(Thomson Reuters)
• The U.K. accounted for 40.3% of deal
value in Europe during 4Q19, followed by
France and the Netherlands with 5.8%
and 3.1%, respectively. (Thomson
Reuters)
• According to Thomson Reuters, the
largest PE deal disclosed in Europe was
Nestlé Skin Health, which produces and
distributes cosmetics worldwide, which
was acquired by Investor Group and an
undisclosed buyer ($10.2 billion).
• Another notable transaction includes
Merlin Entertainment Group Limited, a
U.K. based company focused on creating
attractions and family-oriented resorts
worldwide, acquired by Australian Alpine
Enterprises ($0.1 billion). (Thomson
Reuters)
• The business service industry garnered
$9.9 billion of new investment in 4Q19,
followed by the consumer related
industry with $6.1 billion. (Thomson
Reuters)
Europe Investment Activity | $ Billion
Source: Preqin
5
79.5
105.4
144.4 161.7
146.0
178.1
217.8
317.5
206.3
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
65.9 59.0
68.8 67.8
102.1
49.9
69.2
115.9
98.0
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Europe IPO Exits | $ Billion
Europe | PE-Backed IPOs as % of Total IPOs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Volume % Value %
Source: PwC
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
Market Overview 4Q19
Asia
FUNDRAISING
• 4Q19 commitments: $29.0 billion. An18.3% decease from 4Q18 ($35.5 billion)and a 48.1% decrease from 3Q19 ($55.8billion).
• China accounted for 75.5% of funds
raised in Asia during 4Q19, followed by
Singapore (10.4%) and Japan (6.9%).
• The decrease in funds raised this quarter
was largely due to China, which closed
on $21.9 billion of commitments in 4Q19
compared to the $43.5 billion from 3Q19.
• The largest PE fund to reach a final
closing was Baring Asia Private Equity
Fund VII, L.P. ($6.5 billion), a Hong Kong
based buyout fund, followed by
Primavera Capital Fund III ($3.4 billion),
and SSG Capital Partners V ($1.9 billion).
• In 4Q19, buyouts was the most popular
strategy, by amount raised, in Asia
accounting for 45.0% of the total,
followed by special situations (12.9%)
and venture capital (9.7%).
Source: Preqin
EXITS
• In Asia, there were three PE-backed IPOs
reported through Preqin in 4Q19 valued at
$0.9 billion, down 53.6% in value and down
50.0% in count from 3Q19, respectively.
• There were 29 disclosed Asian PE M&A (ex-
IPO) exits in 4Q19 valued at $2.1 billion,
down 55.3% in value and unchanged in
count from 3Q19. Japan had the largest
number of exits in the market with 44.8% of
the total 29 exits.
Asia Fundraising Activity | $ Billion
INVESTING
• Disclosed, and completed, deal value of
Asian buyout funds totaled $2.8 billion
across 28 deals in 4Q19, up 17.9% in deal
value and down 28.2% in deal count
compared to 3Q19, respectively.
• China accounted for 73.0% of the total
investments in Asia during 4Q19,
followed by Japan and South Korea with
18.7% and 5.8%, respectively.
• One of the largest disclosed PE deals in
Asia was the $0.8 billion deal involving
CITIC Dicastal Wheel Manufacturing,
automobile parts manufacturer based
out of China. Another major deal was the
sale of China’s Shijiazhuang Junlebao
Dairy for $0.6 billion.
• The pharmaceuticals industry generated
$1.2 billion of disclosed deals in 4Q19,
followed by logistics at $0.8 billion.
Asia Investment Activity | $ Billion
Asia IPO Exits | $ Billion
Asia M&A Exits | $ Billion
86
7367
121
177
197
212
116
133
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
15
20
26
45
2321
42
37
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
3
2
910
5
10
12
5
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
22 22
38
44
26
67
3027
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
6
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
Market Overview 4Q19
Emerging Markets: United Arab Emirates
FUNDRAISING
• Investors remained cautious of the Middle East
in 2019, ranking the region eighth out of ten on
EMPEA’s list of the most attractive emerging
markets for GP investments in 2019. One reason
for the poor ranking is political risk, which was
cited as a likely deterrent to investment in the
next two years by 70.0% of LPs.
• As reported by Preqin, nine funds with a focus
on the Middle East held final closes in 2019;
seven of such disclosed final fund sizes totaling
$1.8 billion. Two of these funds have specific
focuses on the UAE and account for 58.4% of
disclosed final commitments ($1.1 billion).
• According to Thomson Reuters, three funds
located in the UAE raised a total of $0.3 billion
in 2019. Fundraising in 2019 declined by 56.3%
YoY, with three funds raising $0.6 billion in
2018. The Mubadala MENA Tech Investment
Fund of Funds accounted for 59.7% of all
commitments raised in 2019 by UAE-based
funds.
EXITS
• According to Preqin, there were six buyout
exits and two VC exits disclosed in 2019,
resulting in two fewer exits compared to the
total exits disclosed in 2018.
• One of the most notable exits in 2019 was
the April IPO of Network International LLC
(NETW:LN), a UAE-based payment processing
service company. The company’s debut on
the London Stock Exchange resulted in the
sale of $1.4 billion worth of shares. General
Atlantic, Warburg Pincus and Emirates Bank
were among the largest shareholders that
partially exited their positions during the
offering. (Bloomberg)
• IPO activity of UAE companies in 2019 was
concentrated on the London Stock Exchange,
with three listings raising $2.4 billion (EY).
The only new listing on UAE’s domestic
exchanges was a rights issue for Emirates
NBD Bank PJSC, which raised $1.8 billion
(Bloomberg).
INVESTING
• 62 VC deals were disclosed in 2019, resulting
in a 31.9% increase compared to 47 deals in
2018. 2019 buyout deal volume decreased
12.5% from eight deals in 2018 to seven
deals in 2019. (Preqin)
• Based on data provided by Preqin, the largest
disclosed deal in 2019 was CVC Capital
Partners’ $1.0 billion buyout investment in
GEMS MENASA Cayman Limited, a provider
of K-12 education in the Middle East. The
largest disclosed VC deal in 2019 was a $0.1
billion investment in Yellow Door Energy, a
clean energy and energy efficiency solutions
provider.
• As reported by Thomson Reuters, disclosed
2019 deal value for UAE-based funds with
domestic and international investment
strategies totaled $6.1 billion from 69 deals,
resulting in a YoY increase in deal value of
16.3%.
Fundraising Activity | $ Million Investment Activity | # of Deals Exit Activity | % of Exit Type
Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Preqin Source: Preqin
SPOTLIGHT: The Abraaj Group & the UAE’s Pr ivate Equity Market
7
18% 13%17%
9%17%9%
13%
9%17%9%
13%
9%100%
33%
27%63%
17%9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
IPO Merger
Private Placement Restructuring
Sale to GP Sale to Management
Trade Sale Unspecified Exit
10 7 8 7
29
47 47
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Buyout Deals VC Deals
In 2018, Dubai’s largest private equity firm, the Abraaj Group, came under fire from investors and financial regulators for misappropriating funds andmisleading investors. In July 2019, the firm was hit with a record $0.3 billion fine by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (Bloomberg). The future ofprivate equity in the UAE has remained unclear following the Abraaj Group’s demise and those familiar with the matter have speculated that investorswill avoid funds operating in the country (Bloomberg). Capital raised in 2019 by UAE-based funds was down 56.3% YoY (Thomson Reuters); however, asillustrated in the fundraising graph above, fundraising by UAE-based funds has been volatile for the past ten years making it difficult to associate thisdecrease with the Abraaj Group. The trend in deal volume has also made for an ambiguous future in the UAE’s PE market, with the overall number ofdeals in 2019 increasing 25.5% YoY (Preqin). Venture capital appears to be on an upward trend, exhibiting YoY deal volume growth of 31.9% and a three-year CAGR of 28.8% (Preqin). In a 2019 Pitchbook article, recent growth in venture capital in the region has been largely attributed to governmentinitiatives to reduce reliance on oil revenues. According to Bloomberg, IPOs and rights issues on the country’s exchanges saw a significant drop in 2019;from five rights issues in 2018 to one in 2019. Despite the drop in volume, actual proceeds raised in 2019 were 75.9% higher than in 2018 and 8.2%higher than the five-year average. The scope of the Abraaj Group’s impact on the future of the UAE’s PE market has yet to be discovered.
$706.2
$375.5
$51.8
$634.0
$865.5
$30.0$1.3
$250.0
$575.2
$251.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
Amount Raised Number of Funds
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
Market Overview 4Q19
Sector in Focus: Industrials
SECTOR OUTLOOK
MARKET ANALYSIS
• Commercial Airlines
▪ The commercial airline industry has had a
wide impact on global economic
development. This is seen through an influx
of 70.4 million estimated supply chain
related jobs in 2019, falling transport costs,
and boosted trade flows, particularly with
cross border trade.
▪ Despite steep challenges related to the
ongoing groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX
fleet worldwide, U.S. airlines with exposure
to the aircraft have regrouped to post
strong annual earnings, with American
Airlines showing net profit up 5.0% over
2018.
▪ With GDP growth expected to average 2.8%
globally over the next 20 years, an increase
in airline traffic is on the horizon. According
to Boeing forecasts, air traffic will outpace
GDP by 4.7% a year. Valued at more than
$800.0 billion in 2019, the commercial air
transport fleet has seen continued growth
in the aircraft leasing sector to meet
heightened demand, with 45.0% of the
current commercial airline fleet operating
on lease from air lessors.
▪ Similar to prior years, North American
airlines have been the leader in the
commercial aviation sector, generating
estimated net profits of $16.9 billion in
2019.
SECTOR OVERVIEW
• The industrials sector of the S&P 500
increased during 4Q19 5.0% over the prior
quarter with the sector reaching its highest
on November 2019. 4Q19 has seen the
industrials sector experience an increase
when compared to 4Q18, posting a 26.8%
increase YoY. This is largely due to global
market stability and robust economic
conditions through April 2019, during which
the sector regained all output originally lost
in the Great Recession. (S&P, MAPI
Foundation)
• The industrials sector accounted for 42 out of
353 IPOs during 4Q19, which ranked fourth
across all sectors. (EY)
• Globally for the year, much of the total IPO
activity was centered in the technology and
health care sectors, responsible for 263 and
174 IPOs, respectively. Industrials accounted
for 147 IPOs and generated $12.0 billion in
proceeds. Geographically, the U.S. continues
to be a top player in the IPO market, with
$50.0 billion in total proceeds across 165 IPOs
on the NASDAQ and NYSE combined. (EY)
• According to PwC, there were 578 industrial
manufacturing M&A deals during the quarter
totaling $19.1 billion, which represented an
4.0% decrease in volume and 3.0% increase
in deal value compared to 3Q19.
• Of the 578 industrial manufacturing M&A
deals during 4Q19, only one deal this quarter
has been categorized as a “megadeal”; the
partial acquisition of Gree Electric Appliances,
by Hillhouse Capital backed Zhuhai Mingjun
Investment L.P., a transaction closing at $5.9
billion. (PwC, Bloomberg)
8
Source: S&P Global
Source: International Air Transport Association (IATA),Alton Aviation Consultancy
• Across the sector, transportation and logistics,
continue to be key drivers of relatively strong
performance for industrials amidst
heightened U.S.-China trade tensions, a late-
year economic slowdown, and a looming
Brexit decision in Europe. (PwC)
• According to PwC, deal volume for the year in
the transportation and logistics sector rose
12.0% while deal value rose 19.0% over 2018,
despite a slowing of growth in the European
market.
• Unlike the progress made in the
transportation and logistics vertical,
manufacturing is expected to see an increase
in headwinds into 2020. A tight, and
continually slowing job market in the industry,
as well the current threat of an increase in
tariffs has given a relatively mixed outlook on
the sector going forward. (Deloitte)
• Deloitte predicts that a relatively modest
annual manufacturing GDP growth level of
1.3% for 2020, 0.7% below original
projections.
4Q19 Global IPO Activity
Sector Performance | TTM Quarterly Returns
Global Commercial Airline EBIT Margin, % Revenue
Source: EY
Source: IATA
0 20 40 60
Information Technology
Healthcare
Materials
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Real Estate
Financials
Consumer Staples
Energy
Communication Services
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
Global North America Europe
Asia-Pac Latin America Africa
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%S&P 500 Industrials
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
Market Overview 4Q19
Performance**Performance data may lag current quarter due to the complex process of data collection.
Source: Preqin, Cambridge Associates, Bloomberg; Russell Investment Group is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.
MARKET RETURNS
Buyout Returns Venture Capital Returns
Source: Cambridge Associates Pooled IRR: All Private Equity Funds excluding Real Estate, Fund-of-Funds, Infrastructure, and Secondaries as of September 2019
Source: Cambridge Associates as of September 2019 Source: Cambridge Associates as of September 2019 Source: Bloomberg
Private Equity Returns by Asset Class 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year
Venture Capital 14.4% 14.8% 11.4% 11.0%
Growth Equity 12.8% 14.0% 13.4% 13.1%
Buyout 12.8% 14.6% 13.7% 12.0%
Subordinated Capital 10.0% 10.8% 10.6% 8.6%
Control-Oriented Distressed 7.8% 11.2% 10.5% 10.6%
Private Equity Energy -1.5% 4.6% 7.1% 7.7%
Total 11.4% 13.6% 12.7% 11.7%
Index
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
S&P 500 -13.5% 13.6% 4.3% 1.7% 9.1%
Russell 3000 -14.3% 14.0% 4.1% 1.2% 9.1%
FTSE -9.6% 9.5% 3.3% 0.9% 27%
CAC -13.6% 13.4% 6.2% 2.7% 5.5%
DAX -13.8% 9.2% 7.6% 0.2% 6.6%
MSCI ACWI -12.7% 12.3% 3.8% 0.1% 9.1%
-1.1%
14.0%
15.8%
15.9%
11.5%
1.3%
17.1%
12.1%
14.4%
12.3%
0.5%
9.6%
12.5%
13.2%
11.0%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
3 Months
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
15 Years
Seed/Early Stage Late/Expansion Stage
Multi-Stage
0.2%
5.8%
9.7%
14.3%
18.3%
1.8%
10.8%
11.3%
12.3%
15.5%
0.5%
7.7%
12.3%
14.3%
14.6%
1.9%
9.1%
13.7%
15.4%
12.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
3 Months
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
15 Years
Small Buyouts Medium Buyouts
Large Buyouts Mega Buyouts
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
S&P 500 Index
Russell 3000
FTSE
CAC
DAX
MSCI ACWI
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Dec
-00
Mar
-01
Jun
-01
Sep
-01
Dec
-01
Mar
-02
Jun
-02
Sep
-02
Dec
-02
Mar
-03
Jun
-03
Sep
-03
Dec
-03
Mar
-04
Jun
-04
Sep
-04
Dec
-04
Mar
-05
Jun
-05
Sep
-05
Dec
-05
Mar
-06
Jun
-06
Sep
-06
Dec
-06
Mar
-07
Jun
-07
Sep
-07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun
-19
Preqin INDEX vs S&P 500 INDEXBuyout
All Private Equity
Venture
Real Estate
Fund of Funds
Distressed Private Equity
S&P 500 Index
9
© 2011 TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC Exhibit I Confidential
© 2020 TorreyCove Capital Partners │ Confidential Information
Firm Update 4Q19
Industry Events & Media Coverage
CONFERENCES
Media Coverage
October
• 10/8 Nic DiLoretta mentioned by CIO in “Chief Investment Officer’s Eighth Annual List of the World’s Most Influential Investment Consultants.”
• 10/9 TorreyCove mentioned by PEI in “LACERS Increases Investment Pacing as it Looks to Trim GP Relationships.”
• 10/11 TorreyCove mentioned by Law360 in “A Look Inside The Largest PE Funds That Closed In Q3.”
• 10/16 David Fann quoted by The Deal in “PE Stake Sales Trickle into Middle Market: Private Briefing.”
• 10/28 David Fann quoted by P&I in “Problem Portfolio Companies are an Issue for Investors.”
November
• 11/10 TorreyCove mentioned by WSJ in “Six Women Who Keep Watch on Both Sides of Private-Equity Fundraising.”
December
• 12/2 TorreyCove mentioned by WSJ in “Investors Worry PE Portfolios Not Prepared for Downturn, Survey Shows.”
• 12/11 TorreyCove mentioned by PEI in “How to Manage Forex Risk in Your Portfolio.”
Speaking Engagements
October
• 10/8 Fall i3 Roundtable, Nic DiLoretta, Senior Vice President, Attendee.
• 10/16 Institutional Investor Roundtable for Consultants & Institutional Investors Conference David Fann, President + CEO, “Moderator—Benchmarking Real Assets.”
• 10/21 SuperReturn Private Credit US, Mike Krems, Managing Director, “Specialist & Un-Correlated Strategies.”
• 10/23 NAIC Annual Private Equity & Hedge Fund Conference, Heidi Poon, Senior Vice President, "Change is a Constant: How Consultants Are Fueling Engagement with Diverse and Emerging Managers.“
• 10/29 RFK Compass 2019 Regional Investor Conference, David Fann, President + CEO, “Navigating the Climate Crisis – Perspectives from Investors and Fund Managers.”
November
• 11/23 NASP-NY 23rd Annual Symposium, David Fann, President + CEO, “Ensuring Investors Get Access to Women & Minority-Owned Investment Firms.”
TorreyCove is a specialist advisor focusing exclusively on private equity, private credit, and real assets, and offers a full suite of advisory services
including program design and policy creation, portfolio construction, investment selection, negotiation, and post-transaction risk management.
This TorreyCove Newsletter has been prepared by TorreyCove Capital Partners LLC for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal, securities, tax or investment advice or an opinion
regarding whether investment is appropriate. Readers should not act upon this information without first seeking advice from professional advisers.
W W W. T O R R E Y C O V E . C O M
IN THE NEWS
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