toscafund discussion paper - brexit

7/24/2019 Toscafund Discussion Paper - BREXIT

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1. P............................................................................................................................................. 3

2. T E E U .................................................................... 5

3. D W ........................................................................................... 6

4. E EU ........................................................................... 10

5. B; L , PART I... .................................................................................................. 11

6. T EU ...................................................................................................................... 15

7. B; L , PART II.................................................................................................... 17

8. I .......................................................................................... ...... 19

9. B...................................................................................................................................... 22

10. B G ................................................................................................... 24

11. G D .......................................................................................................... 25

12. C ............................................................................................................................... 26

13. W B O ...................................................................................................... 27

14. W C ?........................................................................................................................... 28

15. T R A I............................................................................................................... 30

16. N EU (I 9 W J 2011)................................ 31

17. L : 1974/5 (I 19 O, H T F 2013) ................................. 32

18. L : 1983 (I 19 O, H T F 2013) .................................... 33

19. P (I 19 O, H T F 2013) ............................................. 34

20. UK M (I 20 O U J 2013)............................................................. ..... 36

21. UKIPNOMICS (I 22 TOSCANOMICS ... N 2013)................................... ...... 41

22. B (I 24 E , B M 2014)43

23. D, (I 26 J M 2014)....................................................... 45

24. A (I 29 M O 2014)...................................... 46

25. T : UKIP (I 29 M O 2014) ...................... 50

26. R (I 31 EXITSTENTIAL M 2014)....................................... 52

27. C I 36 F FX 2016 D 2015.............................................................................................................................. 55


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UK . T EU . W

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A N , EU

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B , EU EU, . T EU

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F W E , .

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. T M 1957 T R

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1973, UK, I D , 1986 . O

, UK IN/OUT 1975,

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T I C 1991

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C 2013 EU ,

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I , US 155 .

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1992, M T. I, S 16

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D 1992/3 J 1

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2002

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M T E U : E ,

C F S P ( ) P JC C M. T E C J (ECJ), 1952,

1997 A T ECJ.

A , ,

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EU . W , , EEC ,

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EU ...


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6

B :

T SNP EU . I

1975 IN/OUT , L P

M H W. B SNP

B. T , , EU

EEC 40 . D SNP ; ,

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W SNP , ,

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SNP

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EU, EU

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3. D

O D C EU

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UK EU .

I, , H W 1975 16 7

C P M I, ,

E U (

E E C

W ). E I

( UKIP )

I, I O

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;

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,

,

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UK , ,

,

. T , ,

UK

. A , I

. A , UK ,

2015 G E. T UK

S U.

S

. M

. I, 2014 (

S R ) 2015 ( G E) UK

E U GDP , G8,

.


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7

C 1: E S; E C 2: E S; U

Source: ONS, Toscafund (Red lines denote the announcement and vote of the Scottish referendum, the grey lines denote the dissolution of Parliament and the

General Election)

W 1 2 UK

S I R S 18

2014 G E

M 7

. T

. O

, G . W

R, , , G

E, UK. S

B, ,

. M UK

. A ,

, ,

.

C 3: 10 G C 4: 5 G

Source: Bloomberg, Toscafund (Red lines denote the announcement and vote of the Scottish referendum, the grey lines denote the dissolution of Parliament and

the General Election)

I 5 10 G S

R I G E U

S T . A 5 G

G B ECB ,

UK G ( 3 4).

I

U K; I , , . W I

2.5

2.55

2.6

2.65

2.7

2.75

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

M

E S

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

%

E S

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20

%

UK G US 0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

%

UK G US ECB R


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. L

UK .

C ;

1.42 1.3 . N, B UK

,

( ). O

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/ UK . T

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. A M P C (MPC), I

B . I

UK 1992 ( I UK

H G N 1991).

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L 1992 , ,

G C L J

S. A , A 10

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15%. A , N L

T E R M (ERM)

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UK E M U

(EMU FTSE 100 4.44% S 17

,

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16

, ( S, G UK). T

UK ERM

, , . W 9% S 22

, UK ,

, . Q ,

UK

ERM,

UK , G (

2.95 D

ERM , 5).


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C 5: P D C 6: R GDP, UK G F

Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Toscafund (Red lines denote the announcem ent and vote of General Elections, the grey line denote ERM exit)

T , , S 1992. O

;

. H, /

, . A

. T EXITS

; . A

, ;

, D , B G

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W I ; ,

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A , UK EU

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F . Y, US F G

P , S C . H,

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U K. W EU ,

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2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

+6%

C6%

8

6

4

2

0

2

4

6

2 00 0 2 00 2 2 00 4 2 00 6 2 00 8 2 01 0 2 01 2 2 01 4 2 01 6 2 01 8 2 02 0

%

,

U K G F


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T N 1972

1994 N EEC EU

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5. B; , A I

I I B . I , , I

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N S, UK

U . T

EU. W , ,

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W U K , EU,

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B, EU.

C I EU , S L M (SLM)

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UK S A,

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N, I UK EU SLM. I

B, SLM . S

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UK ( 2.1 ). T

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EU UK B EU. O B. I

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B. F ,

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T 407,000 927,000 B

EU, UK . F ,

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NHS . O

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M EU UK

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T, UK. N

( 10).


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C 7: UK E , UK C 8: UK E,

Source: ONS, Toscafund

W B

EU? W, ( 11), ; B

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EU. W,

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CPI

UK . I , ONS

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C 9 B R

N I 2014, UK . T

NI EU

( I P). I

UK E. A E

, UK

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C 9: N I EU C 10: UK **

Source: ONS, Toscafund *2015 estimated last quarter; and EU15 excludes UK **Mark Carneys 7% threshold when considering raising rates is represented with

a red dotted line

25.0

25.2

25.4

25.6

25.8

26.0

26.2

26.4

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

M

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

M

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

T

T

T EU15* P () B R ()

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

%

UK S E E M Y & H L


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14

L B R EU

J 1

2007. A U K

B R . T

J 1

2014 K V, ,

L . I, V T MP M R,

UKIP G

E. W B R UK

( 9)

. B

EU, , I

;

. A , I

,

, UK .

I , EU UK

I . O

EVEN SLM. W,

, PD 1980 UK SLM , I

; .

T UK

. T

SLM .

C 11: V U K C 12: R

Source: ONS, Toscafund

R I .

T I . F, E

(G

). S, I UK

, , EU . T

, NOT SLM,

. I .

A G N E ,

UK

.

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

T

5

4

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

,3,%

R W ( CPI) R W ( CPI )


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15

6. E

I 2.1 E U UK. S

. T ,

. I , /

. I ,

, E U. N,

EU ;

,

. I ,

EU 1% UK

. M . W

? I B

B. T

,

. O

,

. I

.

I

Z P, H, L R

EU. N,

, ;

UK P ., 13 16.

R

UK , . I

B

EU UK .

E I EU UK

. W,

,

( I ). T

.

C 13: P C 14: H

Source: Bloomberg, Toscafund

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

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350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

16%17%


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16

I'

F ; . W . I

,

.

T , I ,

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G . N I

,

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. I

A, N Z C, UK,

EU'

. I ( 23)

UK' .

T ,

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,

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C 15: R C 16: B

Source: Bloomberg, Toscafund

L E U

UK . T UK

EU. A I

EU EU .

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

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2.5

3.0

3.5

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

19%

23%


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17

7. B; , A II

A I . T I

. O ,

.

T B S L M. T

EU ,

THEY OUR , WE B . W,

. L UK

EU ( 1 2). N . T

,

( 17 18). I, L T C

T C EU .

M 1: 2014 EU % M 2: 200414 % EU

Source: ONS, Eurostat, Toscafund (relative growth is measured with formula = (2014 EU pop - 2004 EU pop) / 2004 Total Population

EU , %

2.02.99

3.03.49

3.53.99

4.04.49

4.54.99

5>

3.7 4.6

11

4.6

3.8

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3.4

3.3

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3.4

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C

: %

N 6.0

UK 4.8

S 4.3

G 3.8

F 2.2

EU

, %

1.01.99

2.02.49

2.52.99

3.03.99

4.0

toscafund discussion paper - brexit

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