tourism 2023 full report web version

8/8/2019 Tourism 2023 Full Report Web Version

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http://www.thetravelfoundation.org.uk/


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contents

1 Executive summary 02

2 Factors shaping the future 10

3 Building the scenarios 15

4 Scenario 1: boom and burst 16

5 Scenario 2: divided disquiet 23

6 Scenario 3: price and privilege 31

7 Scenario 4: carbon clampdown 39

8 How to use the scenarios 47

9 Our vision 48

10 Our proposed strategic approach 52

11 Tourism 2023: how to get involved 54

12 Acknowledgements 55

01 Tourism 2023

Page

Forum for the Future the not-for-profitsustainable development organisation works in partnership with more than 120leading companies and public sectororganisations, helping them devise moresustainable strategies and deliver thesein the form of new products andservices.

www.forumforthefuture.org

Tourism 2023 forms part of the Forumsambitious programme of work onsustainable tourism and travel.

To learn more, go to:www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/travel-and-tourism

Registered office:Overseas House1923 Ironmonger RowLondon EC1V 3QNRegistered charity number 1040519Company limited by guarantee 2959712Date of publication:October 2009Tourism 2023 has been supported by:

ABTA, British Airways, Carnival UK, TheCo-operative Travel, Defra, The TravelFoundation, Thomas Cook and TUITravel

Report authors:Stephanie Draper, James Goodman,Richard Hardyment and Vicky Murray

Forum for the Future project team:Stephanie Draper, James Goodman,Richard Hardyment, Vicky Murray,Louise Armstrong, Alex Johnson,David Mason, Tess Riley

Contact:[email protected]

Illustrations by:Aaron Lee, Stevie Robinson,Jane Xu, Zarino Zappia

Design by:thomasmatthews.com

Scenario 1:

boom and burst

Scenario 2:

divided disquiet

Scenario 3:

price and privilege

Scenario 4:

carbon clampdown

To download animations of the scenarios

go to: www.forumforthefuture.org/

projects/tourism-2023
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/travel-and-tourismhttp://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/travel-and-tourismmailto:[email protected]://www.thomasmatthews.com/http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023http://www.thomasmatthews.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/travel-and-tourismhttp://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/travel-and-tourismhttp://www.forumforthefuture.org/http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023


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Click to return to contents

turbulent times

Change is the law of life. And those

who look only to the past or present

are certain to miss the future.

John F. Kennedy

Since we began working on Tourism 2023,there have been some breathtaking changeswhich have had a dramatic impact on the

travel and tourism industry worldwide.The speed at which the credit crunchmorphed into a global recession, combinedwith fluctuating oil prices, caught many inthe industry on the back foot. Regularnews headlines about the failure of travelcompanies have been a grim reminder ofthe commercial imperative of being fullyprepared for the future.

And the pace of change looks set toaccelerate. Our world is becoming crowdedand our available resources scarce. By

the mid-2020s, the UN expects the worldpopulation to grow to 8 billion. Thatsan additional 1.3 billion people, who willplace dramatic new demands on the planet.By 2025, 1.8 billion people are expectedto be living in countries or regions withabsolute water scarcity.1 The growth of themiddle classes in countries like China andIndia has the potential to reshape globaltourism flows dramatically. Climate changewill also have dramatic impacts on how,where and when (and even if) people travel,and will reshape the industry over time.

But is the travel and tourism industryready for these changes? A report byKPMG released in April 2008, just a monthbefore we began work on Tourism 2023,suggested not. It ranked transport andtourism as the sectors least well preparedfor climate change and among those mostcommercially exposed to the physical risks

it presents.2

Whats worrying is that theseare the changes we can be fairly certainabout. What about the things that weare less certain about, but that are reallyimportant for the future of the industry?Things like how legislation might shapetravel and how active our ageingpopulations might be? The industryneeds to be prepared for uncertaintimes if it is to prosper.

Tourism 2023 tackles these questions headon in order to help the UK outbound travel

and tourism industry better understand andplan for its future. The project, coordinatedby the sustainable development charityForum for the Future and supported bysome of the foremost organisations inthe industry, presents a set of four scenarioswhich explore the critical uncertaintiesfacing the industry and offers vividimages of possible futures.

The founding partners ABTA, BritishAirways, Carnival UK, The Co-operativeTravel, The Travel Foundation, Thomas

Cook and TUI Travel, with support fromDefra have responded to these scenariosby signing up to a shared vision of asustainable outbound tourism industry andhave committed to work to achieve this.

1 Food and Agricultural Organization, United Nations,14 February 2007

2 Climate Changes Your Business, KPMG,2 April 2008

02 Executive summary

1.executivesummary

Climate change willhave dramatic impactson how, where andwhen (and even if)

people travel, andwill reshape theindustry over time.


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a vision and strategyfor the industry

Tourism 2023 is not just aboutunderstanding what the future mighthold, it is also about shaping it.

The scenarios explore very differentdirections in which the industry may

develop. They show us that companiescan create a better commercial futurefor themselves by thinking through thewider impacts of their services and takinga sustainable approach. To get to thefuture you want, its important to knowwhat it looks like and what youreaiming for to have a vision.

Tourism 2023 sets out a clear visionof a profitable, successful future in whichthe travel and tourism industry recognisesits wider responsibilities to society.

The founding partners are committedto a sustainable future and have signedup to this shared vision.

Signatories to the Tourism 2023Visionare committing to integrate the vision intotheir business strategies and to workingtogether to deliver innovative solutionsto the challenges ahead.

Following the publication of this reportthe next phase will be to engage withthe wider industry. The founding partners,

Forum for the Future, ABTA and TheTravel Foundation, with the support ofGovernment, are now working togetherto develop the framework to engagethe wider industry and to deliver theTourism 2023Vision.

tourism 2023 a collaborativeproject

The Tourism 2023 scenarios, vision andstrategic approach outlined in this reportwere developed over eighteen monthsof research and consultation, which

included desk research, expert interviewsand a series of four industry workshops.The Tourism 2023 Advisory Board andSteering Committee has guided theprojects development.

More than 100 individuals with expertisein different facets of the travel and tourismindustry have contributed their knowledgeand insights into this project, including traveland tourism academics, business leaders,campaigners, legislators and commentators.

Join us on this journey to put sustainabilityat the heart of our industry. With strongleadership and commitment we can helpshape the future we want a thrivingoutbound travel and tourism industrythat is both profitable and sustainable.

This is the first collaboratively developedvision for a sustainable UK outbound traveland tourism industry. The industry as awhole must now take ownership of thisvision, and ABTA together with The TravelFoundation will be working with the

founding partners to facilitate this.


Signatories to theTourism 2023 Visionare committing tointegrate the visioninto their businessstrategies and toworking togetherto deliver innovativesolutions to thechallenges ahead.


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the Tourism 2023summary visionstatement

We believe in the benefits of traveland tourism. Our industry opens upthe world, connects lives and deliversholiday experiences that bring

happiness to millions.

But the future is likely to be dramaticallydifferent from today. We have exploreda range of scenarios, which show thatthere are some major risks to the holidayexperience and the way we currentlyoperate. These radical changes in ourexternal operating environment giveus an urgent commercial imperativeto evolve and reshape our businesses.

As an industry, we want to lead the

way towards a better future for ourown success and for wider society,with sustainable tourism as part of asustainable society. We have set outwhat we think that looks like in our vision.It recognises our responsibilities to ourenvironment the finite natural resourcesupon which we all rely; our staff and ourcustomers; and to our communities thelives of all those touched by our industry.

Thats why we are committed toensuring a net positive impact creating

more good than harm for our industryby 2023.

We have set ourselves six principles

to create a sustainable future.

1.Our environment is protected, not

eroded, by our operations. We takeevery opportunity to enhance it.2.Our employees are given opportunities

to develop to their full potential.3.Our customers are provided with

mainstream sustainable productsas the norm.

4.Communities we work in andwith benefit from our operations.

5. We strive to be sustainable inour infrastructure through innovation.

6.Our business value incorporatessocial and environmental costs so

that we can ensure sustainableprofits (financially, but sociallyand environmentally too).


Dermot BlastlandTUI Travel PLC

Andy CooperThomas Cook

Jonathon CounsellBritish Airways

David DingleCarnival UK Group

Mike GreenacreThe Co-operative Travel

Sue Hurdle

The Travel Foundation

Noel JosephidesSunvil Holidays

John McEwanAdvantage Travel Centres

Mark TanzerABTA

The full Tourism 2023Vision can be

viewed in section 9 of this report.

It sets out our broad ambitions for

the sustainable industry we want

to achieve within 15 years.

get involved

Join the leading businesses that

have made a commitment to secure

a long-term future for the industry.

To become a signatory to theTourism 2023Vision contact:

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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get involved

Help shape the next phase of

Tourism 2023. Be part of the

solution and link with industry

peers as they join forces to tacklethe biggest future challenges.

For further information contact:

[email protected]


the workstreamsand benefits ofthem

Tourism 2023 has identified threespecific areas where urgent action isrequired, where more can be achievedby working together than by any

one organisation in isolation. All workprogrammes are designed to support,complement and build on existinginitiatives.

1. Sustainable destinations

The industry needs to demonstrate andmonitor the economic benefit tourismdelivers to destination communities. Thiswill help protect holiday destinations forthe future and increase their value andappeal to customers. This will requireworking in partnership with governments

and communities in tourist destinations.

2. Low-carbon innovationWe urgently need to seek, find andimplement solutions to make tourisma low-carbon, low-impact industry.The industry needs to focus on triallingnew technologies and taking them toscale. It should seek to increase energyefficiency and the use of renewableenergy, and to reduce waste anddemands on natural resources.

3. Driving customer demandThe industry has an opportunity toincrease the market for sustainabletourism by promoting its benefits tocustomers and by developing furtherinsight into what will motivate peopleto take sustainable holidays.

the Tourism 2023scenariosHow will we holiday in 2023? No one canpredict the future and the Tourism 2023scenarios do not try to. Instead, theyexplore the key uncertainties ahead andoffer vivid images of possible futures.

It can be fun to read scenarios and totry to imagine what the future might hold.But their real value lies in their practicalapplication. Thinking ahead and planningfor the long-term are essential parts ofany organisations strategic planning.The four Tourism 2023 scenarios areinvaluable tools for policy testing,strategy development and innovation.

We developed the scenarios with the helpof more than 100 industry experts focussingon two key variables: whether the economy,

politics, technology and energy costscombine to encourage or restrict overseastravel; and whether the appeal of overseasdestinations and consumers sensitivityto the environmental impacts of travelmakes tourism more or less attractive.

They have already been used to informthe industry vision and develop and testits strategic approach, but they can beequally valuable to individual organisations.In Chapter 8 of this report we suggest threeways in which organisations can use them

to develop their own strategy.



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To download animations

of the scenarios go to:

www.forumforthefuture.org/

projects/tourism-2023

Click to return to contents 06 Scenario summaries

1. boom and burst

A booming UK economy and highdisposable incomes have fuelled a growthin travel worldwide. People travel further,more frequently, and at faster speeds thanever before. There are many new reasonsto go abroad as global political stability andprospering economies have opened up the

world to more commerce and visitors.

Rapid advances in technology havebeen crucial, such as the breakthrough inalgae-based fuels. Dramatic improvementsin efficiencies have allowed the transportsector just about to keep pace with newregulations and their impacts, such as thesteadily rising global price of carbon. Butexpensive trade-offs have been needed andthe travel industry has effectively financedthe decarbonisation of other sectors of theeconomy. Margins are tighter than ever and

there has been mass industry consolidation.

The UKs older population is increasinglymobile, and has time to spare and cashto spend. Hordes go on cheap medicaland beauty tourism breaks to Costa Ricaand India, which offer substantial savingson operations. More flexible, part-timeand semi-retirement working have drivendemand for trips, and second homeownership abroad is booming.

The UKs legally binding carbon targets

are being met but many are asking howlong this can continue. Many destinationsare suffering from serious overcrowding.Wilderness is perhaps the scarcestresource as road, rail, sea and air routeshave brought mass tourism to the lastcorners of the planet.

Massive protests spoil the openingof the Mount Everest Theme Park.

Tourists flock to see the ancientshrines and archaeological treasuresof Iraq.

Tourism puts huge strains oninfrastructure in popular destinationslike New York, Paris and London.Visitors are herded betweenattractions with timed tickets.

High-tech carbon scrubbersinstalled on the ground cleanthe air so you can travel.

British tour operator taken to courtfor mis-selling a remote holidaywhich was disrupted by 500 Chinese

motor-racing enthusiasts.

Overcrowding in popular destinationshas led to the rise of glamorouscampsites, pop up hotels withstackable modules, and floating resorts.

Fastest growing destinations:the Democratic Republic of Burma,Yemen, Beyond Botswana Plc(Privatised Special Economic Zone),Somalia, Argentina, Brazil, Antarctica,Near space voyages, Papua New

Guinea, Kazakhstan.

scenariosummaries
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/tourism-2023


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07

A breakthrough in affordable telepresencetechnology has proved surprisingly popularwith businesses that are keen to cut costs.This resulted in drastically reduced numbersof certain air routes, closing them to manyholidaymakers.

One flight per year policy for majorUS company encourages executivesto cut costs with telepresencetechnologies.

Tour guides with a military backgroundhired as part of a holiday packagefor extra protection abroad.

Residents of European resort suelocal government over beachespolluted by tourists.

Rising sea levels force Governmentof Maldives to step up relocationplans to India.

Latest hot holiday craze is massiveresorts offering golf and skiingacross sand dunes.

Eiffel Tower auctioned off to amultinational corporation as partof sponsored heritage plan.

Fast growing destinations:Norway, Ireland, Latvia, UK, GreenlandDoomsday Park, Canada, Denmark,France, Sweden, The Estonian ArmyBase Experience.

2. divided disquiet

A toxic combination of devastating climatechange impacts, violent wars over scarceresources and social unrest has createdan unstable and fearful world. This hasmade travelling overseas an unattractiveproposition.

Many destinations were unprepared for theimpacts of a changing climate. More extremeweather events, rising sea levels, increasedflooding and frequent droughts havebattered some places, while food shortagesand malnutrition, malaria, and conflict overresources like water and oil have wreakedhavoc in others. Tourism is an adventureactivity for only the bravest in the worst hitareas: the Sahara to the Middle East andCentral Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, SouthAsian waterways and Small Island States.

A lack of cooperation globally has closeddown borders and hampered movement.Protectionism is strong and global tradehas shrunk. Tight security and additionalvisa checks make travel cumbersomeand time-consuming for holidaymakers.

Visitors are highly selective in where andwhen they travel, cramming into a smallnumber of destinations where overcrowdingcompounds the problems. Doomsdaytourism where visitors rush to see fast-disappearing attractions is popular in the

glacier parks of Patagonia and the bleachedcorals of Australias Great Barrier Reef.But many people have begun to thinkthat holidaying abroad just makes theproblems worse.

Scenario summariesClick to return to contents


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3. price and privilege

A dramatically high oil price has made travelpunitively expensive. Dwindling suppliesand rising demand from the new economiesof Asia have pushed energy prices into aseries of sharp and unpredictable spikes.

The travel industry worldwide has

been badly hit and aviation has shrunkdramatically. Fleet replacements havebeen slower than anticipated and thepredicted efficiency gains could notkeep pace. There have been massredundancies across the travel industryand a period of dramatic consolidationacross the world.

Cost is the primary concern forholidaymakers as everyone asks: howfar can I get for my money? Although asmall, elite market continues to fly regularly,

the vast majority of people simply cannotafford the experience. The days of affordabletravel are now just a nostalgic memory.

People who want to holiday abroad eithersave up for years and fly overseas or join thenew mass market of overland connections.Pan-European rail, bus and sea networksoffer the most cost-effective means of travelfor most people. State-of-the-art super-hubsprovide seamless connections betweendifferent parts of the comfortable andaffordable system of overland travel.

Demonstrators take to streets incities across the world demandingthe right to fly.

Ukraine positions itself as theGateway to the East with newKiev bus-rail megahub plan.

Absolutely no frills airline sectorfrom some non-EU countries offersstanding room only and no cabin crew.

Banks offer holiday credit schemesallowing family and friends to savetogether for the annual trip.

The Maldives blows its entiremarketing budget on targetingthe tiny super-elite market thatcan still afford to fly.

A leading UK charity pays forone deserving family voted forby the public in an online show to experience a long-haul holidayby plane.

Fastest growing destinations:Montenegro, France, Lithuania,Portugal, Germany, Central EuropeLakelands, SailRail breaks to Greece,Morocco, The Tropical IslandExperience (Jersey), Ukraine.

08 Scenario summariesClick to return to contents


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Click to return to contents 09

4. carbon clampdown

The Government has introduced tradablecarbon quotas for all UK households aspart its bold plans to tackle climate change.Individual allowances are seen as thefairest way of allocating the right topollute equally.

The public has clamoured for tough action.Environmental impacts are increasingly felt,like the storm-surge disaster in the ThamesEstuary in 2012, and people are bettereducated about climate science. Althoughthere has been no great shift in culturalvalues, support for regulation is high.

The economy is more localised, anddisposable incomes are low. The poundsweakness on the international stage meansthat exchange rates are unfavourablefor overseas travel. A crisis over national

pensions in 2015 resulted in several largecompany schemes defaulting on theirobligations. This has left many with meagrepensions and costly medical bills in old age.

Many British holidaymakers are still keento travel abroad, but perceptions of thepurpose and real costs of travel havechanged. Although distance is a keyconsideration, the reason for the holidayis crucial: what you are doing is moreimportant than where you are. Ethical travelis a new mass market, and the government

encourages this with the carbon rebatefor volunteering whilst abroad.

The UK is experiencing milder wintersand hotter, dryer summers. High levelsof government investment in local resortsmeans that many people find their holidayneeds can be met closer to home.

Major travel firm goes bust aftermassive boycott coordinatedby a popular website over itsenvironmental policy.

International celebrities snappedsunning themselves on the

beaches in Norfolk.

Stansted Airport closes due toovercapacity, temporarily re-openingas a large retail park.

Red Cross Swarm uses socialnetworks to send volunteers todisaster zones faster than officialagency staff.

Peer-to-peer holidaying allows peopleto swap lives with another family

and spend a year in another partof the world.

Sail from Somalia offers a two-weekadventure where arguing Britishcouples can learn tips from thelocals on post-conflict resolution.

Fastest growing destinations:Cornwall, Ukraine, Sweden,Mozambique Special Volunteer Zone,Lithuania, Northumbria, Cork, France,Slow Boat Community (registered

to Guyana), Liverpool.

Scenario summaries


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Growth in visitor numbers.By the mid-2020s, the UN expectsthe world population to reach 8 billion.This additional 1.3 billion people will placedramatic new demands on the planet.

The growth of the middle classes incountries like China and India has thepotential to dramatically reshape globaltourism flows. Depending on the destina-tions that these new visitors will want toand be able to visit, massive sustainabilitychallenges from traffic congestion toeroded landscapes are likely to intensify.

Cost of resources. Against this backdropof a changing climate and increasingpressures from growing populations,we can expect the cost of key resources

such as food, building materials andenergy to rise in many places as demandgrows and supplies fail to keep pace.

Ageing UK Population. By 2023,38 per cent of the UK population willbe over 50, and there will be 3.6 millionmore over 65s than there are today.6This sharp rise could create an interestingnew market, though there is a highdegree of uncertainty over how affordabletravel will be for this group (see below).

Political instability and regional conflictand terrorism could be exacerbated bygrowing populations, dwindling resourcesand a changing climate. It is far fromclear how severe these problems couldbe for UK outbound travel, but we canhave some confidence that unexpectedevents in parts of the world will continueto pose challenges to the industry.

How will we holiday in 2023? No-onecan predict the future and these scenariosdo not try to. Instead, they explore the key

uncertainties ahead and offer vivid imagesof possible futures.

The shape of the UKs outbound traveland tourism industry in 2023 will dependon a complex interaction of many trendsand uncertainties. In order to understandthis better, we interviewed a wide rangeof travel and tourism academics, businessleaders, campaigners, legislators andcommentators about their hopes, fearsand expectations for the next fifteen years.In all, we consulted over 100 stakeholders

involved in the UKs outbound industry,drawing on representatives from organisa-tions both large and small (see appendix).

Two industry workshops helped usto answer the questions: what arethe most important trends in shapingthe future of the industry and howpredictable are those trends?

what can we be morecertain about?

Some influences on the future are morepredictable than others. Our in-depthresearch, industry workshops and expertinterviews selected the following assignificant and more certain for 2023.This means the industry should be

prepared for them whatever happens.For this reason, they feature in broadlythe same way in all of our scenarios:

The impacts of climate changewill have dramatic impacts and reshapethe industry over time. But these wide-ranging affects will differ from place toplace: warmer temperatures in NorthernEurope could attract more visitors forlonger; but more extreme weather eventssuch as hurricanes, rising sea levels,changing precipitation patterns, more

forest fires, more heatwaves, shorterwinter seasons and new diseasedistributions will dramatically reshapetravel across the world.3 A recentreport by KPMG ranked the transportand tourism sectors as the leastwell-prepared and amongst themost exposed to the physical risksassociated with climate change.4

Drought and water scarcity will beparticularly important. In recent years,weve already seen Cyprus and parts

of Spain come close to running out ofwater. With climate change intensifying,the threat will only increase. By 2025,1.8 billion people are expected be livingin countries or regions with absolutewater scarcity.5

3 Hall, C.M.. and Higham, J., Tourism, Recreationand Climate Change, Aspects of Tourism, 2005

4 Climate Changes Your Business, KPMG,2 April 2008

5 Food and Agricultural Organization, United Nations,14 February 2007

6 Office of National Statistics, 2006

10 Factors shaping the future

2.factorsshapingthe future

The growth ofthe middle classesin countries like

China and Indiahas the potentialto dramaticallyreshape globaltourism flows.


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But how might this change over the nextdecade and a half? Opinion polls can trackwhat people think, but they are less helpfulat telling us how they act or would act in anyfuture set of circumstances. Nevertheless,the changes in recent years are too

dramatic to ignore.

Over the last four years, the level ofagreement that people should be allowedto fly as much as they like has fallenfrom 78 per cent in 2003 to 63 per centin 2007.9 Today, 80 per cent of adultssay that they are very or fairly concernedabout climate change.10 A separatestudy shows that 70 per cent agreethat air travel has a serious effect onclimate change.11

The public also look increasingly likelyto support environmental damage beingreflected in the cost of travel. In 2004, onlyone in three people thought that the priceof an air ticket should reflect environmentaldamage. Today, that has risen to nearlyhalf and only a quarter of people expresslydisagree with the idea.12

These shifts are significant and it wouldbe foolish to ignore the potential for furtherchanges when looking at a timescale of adecade and a half. The most recent British

Social Attitudes survey concluded that thereis now emerging evidence amongst the UKpublic of the beginnings of a shift towardsconsistently environmentally consciousattitudes towards air travel.13 As peoplestart seeing the impacts of climate changefor themselves when they travel, thiscould well increase.

But air travel will not be the only sectoraffected. We can expect that, by 2023,public awareness of the impacts of all formsof travel will be much higher than it is today.Over the next 15 years, the impacts ofclimate change will increasingly be felt

and reported on in diverse forms of newmedia. Leaders in business and politicsare expected to accelerate their actiondue to the urgency of the task ahead.Studies show that whilst most people donot currently draw a strong link betweentheir personal behaviour and climatechange, increased amounts of informationsignificantly alters their attitudes.14 This willhave an impact beyond just the choice oftransport and could affect where peoplewant to visit, where they stay, the activitiesthey undertake and how they behave

on holiday.

So the debate is not over whetherconsumers will or wont be aware ofclimate change and wider sustainabilityissues by 2023. The remaining differenceof opinion is over how dramatically theymight alter their behaviour as a result.

Our scenarios explore the range ofplausible outcomes for 2023. In Boomand Burst, awareness of the issues is higherthan today, but strong industry action and

advanced new technologies mean thatholidaymakers continue to want to travelfar and frequently, indulging in a guilt-freeexperience. But in Carbon Clampdown,a series of dramatic climate-linked eventscombined with high political and businessawareness has resulted in consumerattitudes to mobility that are dramaticallymore sensitive than today.

7 Miller et al, 20078 Recent Trends in Growth of Air Passenger Demand,

Civil Aviation Authority, January 20089 British Social Attitudes Survey, National Centre

for Social Research, 28 January 200910 Department for Transport, October 200811 British Social Attitudes Survey, 200912 British Social Attitudes Survey, 28 January 200913 ibid.14 Exploring Public Attitudes to Climate Change

and Travel Choice: Deliberative Research,Department for Transport, January 2009


what should we beless certain about?Scenarios are about managing uncertainty,and our research, interviews and workshopshighlighted eight key trends that could beimportant, but about whose future directionwe can be much less certain.

No-one can really claim to know how thesetrends will play out: thats why they formthe key differences between our scenarios.We believe that it would be wise to preparefor a range of different possible outcomesto these factors.

1. How will people view mobilityand the environment?

Whilst the impacts of climate change willcertainly increase, we do not really knowhow people will perceive environmental

issues or alter their behaviour as a result.For travel, the greatest uncertainty of allcould be how consumers view the ideaof mobility and how sensitive they areto its environmental impacts.

This is a tough area to make assumptionsabout and views are strongly held on bothsides. On the one hand, there are those whoargue that demand for holidaying overseaswill always remain high: its the last thingpeople will ever cut back on is a phrasewe heard repeatedly.

Some research indicates that the publictoday do not think about the environmentwhen making leisure and tourism choices7and the Civil Aviation Authority foundin 2007 that at present, passengersattitudes towards the environment donot seem to be having a significanteffect on the demand for air travel.8

We can expectthat, by 2023,public awareness

of the impacts ofall forms of travelwill be much higherthan it is today.


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3. How expensive willenergy be?

We got a strong steer from the expertsand the industry workshop on the likelyprice of oil by 2023: high. Differences ofopinion only emerged over whether theindustry would find it tolerably high orcatastrophically high. The other key factoris price volatility, which is more uncertain

and has the potential to be much moredisruptive than a predictably high price.

Historically, oil price shocks have provedhighly disruptive. The crisis of the 1970swas one of the few external shocks thathas permanently changed underlyingtrends for the UKs travel industry.23

The record price of nearly $150 abarrel in July 2008 came as a surpriseto many. Looking ahead to 2023, itslikely that this could be looked back on

as a tame harbinger of things to come.The International Energy Agency haddeclared that the era of cheap oil is overand expects oil prices to return to $100a barrel before 2015.24 McKinsey recentlyforecast the possibility of an alarmingnew oil price spike as early as 2010.25

Several analysts have suggested that oilabove $100 a barrel may be unsustainablefor parts of the global travel industry. Onescenario for the United States has suggesteddomestic flying could fall by 40 per cent by

2025 due to oil prices alone even with a 50per cent improvement in energy efficiency.26Clearly, the interaction between oil supplies,demand and technologies is a crucialvariable and the industry should prepare forvariations in how this trend could play out.Our Price and Privilege scenario exploreswho might be travelling and what theindustry could look like with a series ofsevere oil price spikes towards 2023.

15 The Budget 2009, HM Treasury16 Building a low-carbon economy

the UKs contribution to tackling climate change,UK Committee on Climate Change, December 2008

17 The UKs Fifth National Communication under theUnited Nations Framework Convention On ClimateChange, Department of Energy and ClimateChange, 2009

18 Point Carbon and RDC Aviation research inCost of aviation heading skyward Financial Times,09 August 2009. www.ft.com

19 John Whitelegg from York Universitys StockholmEnvironmental Institute, cited by Plumer, B.The End of Aviation, New Economy, Winter 2008.

20 Recent Trends in Growth of Air Passenger Demand,Civil Aviation Authority, January 2008

21 Department for Transport, October 200822 British Social Attitudes Survey, 28 January 200923 Civil Aviation Authority, January 200824 World Energy Outlook, November 2008;

figures which were supported by later researchin Averting the next energy crisis,McKinsey Global Institute, March 2009.

25 Scott S. Nyquist and Jaeson Rosenfeld,Why Energy Demand will Rebound,McKinsey Global Institute, May 2009

26 Transport Revolutions, Perl, A. and Gilbert,R. cited in Plumer, B. The End of Aviation,New Economy, Winter 2008.


is only likely to advance hand-in-handwith growing consumer awareness. Woulda British government be bold enough toprice high-carbon activities in a way thatsignificantly reduced travel without supportfrom a large section of the population?

Such support from the public to pay morewill be crucial, the experts we spoke tosuggested. The latest polling evidence

suggests that around a third of consumerscurrently believe that the price of a planeticket should reflect the environmentaldamage that flying causes, even if thismakes air travel much more expensive 21 a figure that has risen in recent years.Similarly, the British Social AttitudesSurvey found only low levels of oppositionto the prospect of a steep rise in air faresin order to reflect the environmental damagecaused by air travel and pointed to a movetowards people not only being concernedabout the environmental effects of air

travel but also the need to take actionto do something about it.22

As before, there is clearly a differencebetween what people say theyre preparedto do, and what they would actually tolerateor even vote for. However, with suchsignificant proportions expressing supporttoday, this is clearly a major uncertainty for2023. The history of seat belts and smokingbans shows that public attitudes can changequickly when regulation changes. Our fourthscenario, Carbon Clampdown, explores the

tight relationships between environmentalawareness and a highly interventionistregulatory regime.

2. How might legislationshape travel?

Experts agree that controls over emissionsof greenhouse gases across the economywill steadily increase over the coming 15years and beyond. The UK now has a legallybinding commitment to reduce greenhousegas emissions, currently by 34 per centon 1990 levels by 2020.15 If a global deal

is reached, this target could increase to42 per cent.16 In 2007, the UKs greenhousegas emissions were 18.4 per cent below1990 levels, so theres still some way to go.17With this in mind, all of our scenarios reflectthe likelihood that emissions will be morecontrolled by 2023 than they are today.But how severe might the legislative andregulatory changes be for outbound traveland tourism, and will they operate at anational, EU or global level?

Whilst aviation isnt included in the

Kyoto protocol, the next round of climatenegotiations may address this issue headon. The EU recently announced that it willbring aviation into its own emissions tradingscheme, with airlines expected to pay forthe proportion of carbon credits that areauctioned and any additional emissionsabove their cap from 2012. Recent researchsuggests that it will cost the industry 848Mif the industry has to buy around 15 per centof its carbon allocation through EU ETS.18And some estimates suggest that requiringairlines to pay the full environmental costs

of flying could increase fares by asmuch as five times.19

For the Civil Aviation Authority, air trafficin the near future is more likely to beaffected by changes in the cost of aviationrather than attitudes of passengers to theenvironmental effects of flying.20 Othersdisagree and argue that political intervention

The history of seatbelts and smokingbans shows thatpublic attitudescan change quicklywhen regulation

changes.


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6. How active will olderpeople be?

Whilst we can estimate the approximatenumber of older citizens in the UK by 2023,we do not know whether they will be ableto go on holiday in large numbers. In Boomand Burst, we explore how a highly mobile,mass market of retirees has time to spareand cash to spend, creating an adventurous

generation that wants to see it all. But inCarbon Clampdown, a lack of personalsavings, a ballooning crisis over nationalpensions and costly medical bills in old agemean theres little cash left for holidaying.

27 World Travel Trends 2009, ITB, May 200928 Civil Aviation Authority, December 200529 travelmole.com with responsibletravel.com,

19 May 200930 AFP, 31 March 200931 Smart 2020, The Climate Group, 200832 Travelling Light, WWF, 1 May 2008


be replicated by any digital experience.If anything, the spreading internet andimproved real life simulation will actuallyenhance the desire for millions worldwideto travel and experience the real thing.

On the other hand, history showsthat technologies particularly incommunications offer a potentiallymassive disruptor that could be

unexpected, dramatic, and only reallyunderstood in hindsight. For businesses,change could be quite swift as theavailability, convenience and costof advanced videoconferencing ortelepresence technologies all align.And replacements for business travelcould have important impacts on theaffordability of some routes for leisure trips.By some estimates, up to 20 per cent ofglobal business travel could be substitutedby such technologies by 2020.31 A survey ofUK companies has suggested that around

89 per cent expect that they will want to flyless over the next decade and 85 per centthink that videoconferencing will help themto do so32 and that was polling undertakenbefore the recession. Our scenarios addressthis debate head on: Boom and Burstexplores a world where advanced ICTenhances the desire to travel, whileDivided Disquiet looks at how cost-effective videoconferencing could takeoff and replace the need for some trips.

5. Will new technologiesbe successful?

Two areas of technology could be importantfor the future of travel and tourism. Firstly,new transport and fuel technologies havethe potential to offer steady improvements(such as in energy efficiencies) as well asdramatic breakthroughs (for example withalgae-based fuels). The International Air

Transport Association recently declaredthat the success of biofuel tests meansthat commercial certification is possibleas early as 201011.30Boom and Burstexplores the successful deployment ofthe most advanced technologies overthe coming decade, facilitating growthin an industry that keeps pace withregulation and rising energy prices.

However, many big question marks remainover such technologies. For example, canthe next generation of biofuels really provide

low-emission travel without contributingto some of the unintended consequencesthat weve already seen, such as foodprice rises? A wider but no less criticalquestion is whether or not any technologiescan effectively be developed at the speedrequired to tackle the challenges of climatechange. A world where the promisedtechnologies fail to deliver and cannotkeep pace with the resulting regulationis explored in Carbon Clampdown.

Secondly, what role will communication

technologies play? We can expect thatcomputers and digital technologies in 2023will be hundreds of times more powerfulthan they are today; many more digital linksfeature in all scenarios. But could these everstart to replace the need for movement?For most of the experts we interviewed,online experiences can never replace travel:real, face-to-face exchanges cannot

4. How strong will theUK economy be?

The strength of the UK economy andhow much money people have to spendon travel is evidently an unknown for thefuture. The current recession took manyby surprise and its long-term impactson the UK economy are uncertain.Recent figures suggest that the economic

downturn and higher oil prices causeda remarkable and unprecedented shiftfrom air to overland travel during 2008.27

The growth in air travel from the early1990s to 2005 was closely tied to a strongUK economy, large increases in householdincomes and growing home ownershipabroad28 as well as more affordable travelfrom low-cost airlines. A quick recovery fromthe current recession and a new chapterof this story is explored in Boom and Burst.Conversely, unavoidably expensive travel

and its consequences for the accessibilityof travel to the average consumer withmore similarity to 1950s luxury travel thanthe 1990s low-cost boom is exploredin our scenario Price and Privilege.

Economic changes can also alter peoplesmindsets and values. Research suggeststhat holidaymakers in 2009 are being drawntowards much more local and authentictravel, and operators promoting themselvesas responsible are prospering29, a themewhose further development we explore

in Carbon Clampdown.


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33 PwC, The World in 2050: Beyond the Brics,March 2008

34 BBC News, 19 March 2009.35 Global Risks 2009, World Economic Forum36 National Risk Register, Cabinet Office, 9 November

200837 Civil Aviation Authority, January 200838 The Daily Telegraph, 4 February 2009


Destinations, too, could actively takesteps to discourage large numbers ofvisitors, for example by raising prices orentry taxes at a particularly popular butsensitive location. Some locations havealready begun to implement a form ofrationing. For example, the GalapagosIslands is considering new curbs on visitorsto protect the most sensitive sites.38 Couldgrowing visitor numbers, combined with

resource shortages, severe challenges fromclimate change and social unease, interactto cause some destinations to turn awayfrom mass tourism, focusing on a smaller,higher-value audience or banning touristsaltogether? We explore such an outcomein Divided Disquiet.

8. How attractive and welcomingwill destinations be?

The decision to travel is motivatedby the attractiveness of a destination.But we know that the costs of energyand food, impacts of climate changeand competition for key resources suchas land and water are all likely to rise.When set against the backdrop of rising

populations and numbers of internationalvisitors, there is the potential for a massiveburden on holiday destinations. The UKGovernments Chief Scientist, ProfessorJohn Beddington, recently called thisworrying but very plausible blend ofclimate change and resource constraintsthe perfect storm.34 We explore theimpacts of such a storm on the travelindustry in Divided Disquiet.

The risks posed to global tourism byeconomic collapse, geopolitical instability,

governance and corruption, pandemicsand violent conflicts are all very realconsiderations for the future according tothe World Economic Forum.35 Such impactscould be geographically specific, resultingin particular regions becoming inaccessible,or globally spread like the recent swineflu pandemic with the potential todisrupt travel worldwide.

The British Government rates a physicalattack on its transport systems andelectronic attacks on UK networks as the

two most likely and severe risks that thecountry faces today.36 Security constraintsat airports and the hassle factor of travelshould be considered a major uncertaintyfor the future.37

7. How will the new globaleconomies develop?

Some estimates suggest that by themid 2020s Chinas economy could be thelargest in the world.33 The development ofa new middle class in countries we todaycall the emerging economies will be a keyforce shaping the world over the comingdecade. The World Tourism Organization

estimates that by 2020, there will be 100million outbound tourists from China,and 50 million from India.

A shifting centre of economic andsocio-cultural power to the East, vastnumbers of new middle-class touristskeen to experience the world, and intensecompetition for the UKs industry from newproviders feature in all our scenarios, aswe believe this trajectory is relatively clear.

But how will British holidaymakers react

to the different faces of destinations?From Brazilians in Bangkok to Chinese onthe Costa Blanca, how will holidaymakersrespond to these rapid changes? Weexplore a cheerful but crowded mixingin the globalised Boom and Burst alongsidethe more divisive and at times xenophobicresponse of Divided Disquiet.

The risks posed toglobal tourism byeconomic collapse,geopoliticalinstability,governanceand corruption,pandemics andviolent conflictsare all very realconsiderationsfor the futureaccording to theWorld EconomicForum.


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The four scenarios have beenconstructed to be plausible but stretching.They are not meant to predict the mostlikely outcomes for 2023 nor represent

favourable or unfavourable futures. Instead,they offer a set of possible futures andprovide a challenge to the industry, eachwith their own risks and opportunities.They are tools that industry bodies canuse to assess current strategies andcome up with new ones that will befit for a range of futures.

These scenarios are the sole responsibilityof Forum for the Future and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of our sponsoring partners.

15 Building the scenarios

3.buildingthescenarios

Enabling factorsfacilitate travel

Overseas travelless attractive

Inhibiting factorsimpede travel

Overseas travelis very attractive

price andprivilege

carbonclampdown

boom andburst

divideddisquiet

Scenario constructionThe scenarios were constructed withthe help of a series of industry workshops,

drawing on the uncertainties highlightedin our research and expert interviews.

Two key variables were used to constructthe differences between the scenarios,representing the major uncertaintiesthat we see towards 2023:

enabled or inhibited whether theeconomy, politics, technology andenergy costs combine to facilitateor constrain overseas travel.

attractive or less attractive whether the sensitivity of consumersto the environmental impacts of theirtravel and the attractiveness of overseasdestinations make outbound travelpopular and desirable, or comparativelyless attractive and less appealing.


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1.A booming UK economy andimpressive advances in transporttechnologies have fuelled a growthin travel worldwide. People travelmore frequently, further and atfaster speeds than ever beforeand there are many new reasonsto go abroad.

But precarious trade-offs have

been needed in order to meet theUKs emission targets, and manydestinations are suffering fromserious overcrowding. Peopleare now asking: how long canthis growth be maintained?

scenario:

16 Scenario 1: boom and burst

boomandburst

4.


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how we got here

2010 Economic stimulus packages avert a long

recession and strong routes to recoverybecome evident. Following the CopenhagenClimate Change Conference, further greenstimulus is provided and heavy investmentsflow into green technology.

2010 Ambitious carbon self-regulation strategypublished by UK outbound industry outlininghow emissions targets will be met.

2011 A new era in the history of mankind isdeclared as the first space flight takes sixtourists up to 360,000 feet and 2500mph,over three times the speed of sound.

2012 Breakthrough declared in trials for aviationfuel made from a blend of algae and jatrophaplants as a low-carbon option. New navigation

systems and plans to eliminate inefficienciesin air traffic control are the foundationof the harmonisation of global airspacemanagement agreed on at Copenhagen.

2013 Fuel cell-powered passenger ferry beginscross Channel service, offering impressiveemissions savings.

2014 The UKs Department for InternationalDevelopment launches a campaign topromote the benefits of tourism foroverseas development.

2015 William Edwards, 91, from Huddersfieldbecomes the oldest person ever tocomplete an overland round-the-worldtrip. He is joined by a BBC film crewfor the final leg in a hybrid electric car.

2016 Democratic elections in Burma openthe country up to a wave of tourism.

2017 Kazakhstan transit railway opens to linkChina to Iran and the Caspian Sea, halvingthe time of cargo travel from the PacificOcean to western Europe.

2018 World Trade Organisation begins newround of trade talks, proposing to eliminateall remaining trade barriers.

2019 Russian business consortium begins workon the worlds longest tunnel connectingRussia to Alaska with a 63-mile high-speedtrain line, gas pipelines and fibre-optic cables.

2020 European Parliament considers plans tostagger school holidays to avoid saturation

at popular tourism destinations.

2021 The opening of the small Mount EverestTheme Park near base camp is marredby massive protests from local Nepalese.

2022 British entrepreneur launches workingprototype for the worlds first commercialplane-car hybrid as the world populationhits 8 billion.

the world in 2023

Economic growth has fuelledexpansion and opened up the worldOverseas travel is reasonably affordableand highly desirable for many peoplein the UK. After a quick recovery fromthe 2008-09 recession, high disposableincomes have provided cash for regularbusiness and leisure trips.

There has been a significant shift ineconomic, political and cultural power.New patterns of trade and migrationbetween the powerful nations of China,India and Brazil sustain many more routesand create hundreds of millions of newoutbound tourists. Face-to-face contactis crucial for linking up new businesspartners from London to La Paz or Luanda,opening up more routes across the world.These dramatic changes have created

exciting new destinations for UK holiday-makers and powerful new businesscompetitors for the UK travel industry.

Global stability, in finance and government,has opened up the world to more commerceand visitors. New road, rail, sea and airroutes have advanced through deserts,across the oceans, into untouched forestsand over mountain passes in an unstoppablemarch into the last corners of the planet.The plane, bus, train, ship and car haveconquered wilderness from the Arctic

to Amazonia and brought mass tourismwith them.



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New destinations offer fresh experiences,such as visiting the ancient shrines andarchaeological treasures of Iraq. Worldwideeconomic growth has fuelled investmentand expansion, producing moredestinations, more visitors, moretravel routes, more hotels and manymore areas close to saturation point.

Other social trends in the UK have driventhe popularity of travel: the growth insingle-person households and the tendencyto start families later have freed up time;flexible, part-time and semi-retirementworking have grown with super-high-speed broadband connections; and moretemporary migration and the boomingmarket for second homes abroad havecreated many more opportunities to travel.Nearly two million British homeowners nowown a second home abroad, with countrieslike Turkey, Oman and Canada amongstthe fastest rising in popularity.

Technology has driven progress

The globalised economy, linked byalways-on communications, is tightlyconnected. Dramatic advances ininformation technology have enhancedthe desire to see the world. Just as in thepast, when television and film inspiredmany new dreams and journeys, todaysonline experiences have fuelled a yearningto experience the real thing. Rapidadvances in technology have beencritical to sustaining the growth in travel,such as the breakthrough in algae-basedfuels that have allowed new fuel mixes.Rapid improvements in efficiencies havealso been crucial to allowing transportto keep pace with regulation.

There are many newreasons to travel

The UKs older population is increasinglymobile, and have the time and cash to travel.This mass market of wealthy retirees, whohave lived with ever expanding opportunitiesto travel, leads the charge in exploring farand wide. Groups of over-65s from theUK are a frequent sight, backpacking alongthe Silk Road in China, whilst the teashopson the south coast of England are filledwith the bustle of Chinese teenagers.

And these silver voyagers have manynew reasons to go abroad. Hordes go oncheap medical and beauty tourism breaks toCosta Rica and India, which offer substantialsavings on operations compared to the UK.Some resorts routinely offer an operatingtheatre on-site. Others boast the mostattractive retirement homes in the world.


The sector pays for expensivecarbon trade-offs

A global carbon price was introducedin 2014, and is steadily rising. The travelsector has contrived to grow whilst theUK tries to stay on track to meet itslegally-binding carbon reduction targets.Carbon-intensive sectors pay a premiumfor their emissions and other sectors ofthe economy have had to make evengreater cuts than planned. The UKstravel and tourism industry has effectivelyfinanced the decarbonisation of othersectors of the economy throughemissions trading. So the UKs legally-binding carbon targets are being met but many are asking how long thiscan continue.

Global growth in travel has had a seriousimpact on emissions and many nowvoice concerns for the future viability

of the sector. Noise pollution and airportexpansion continue to be hotly contestedpolitical issues across the world. But thedemonstrable benefits in destinationshave helped maintain a licence to operate.

A growing global economy has alsopushed up oil prices, but so far thesehave not proved an obstacle to travel,although it is more expensive and marginsare tight. Taken with the rising cost ofcarbon, the conversion to low-carbontransport is no longer an environmental

issue its an economic imperative(and has been for a while).


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By landRail networks have expanded too, as arapid, comfortable and attractive meansof travel with full onboard entertainmentsystems. New high-speed train routes haveopened up to meet this new demand, suchas the direct connection from Birminghamto Barcelona.

Customer expectations:high and diverseConsumers are keen to travel abroadbut are by no means de-sensitised to theimpacts of their movement. Awarenessabout the environmental impacts of travelis high but people seem content that the

industry is taking action. Travel is a guilt-free experience for most and somethingthat people are prepared to invest in.

Business plays a strong role in society. Theindustrys proactive self-regulation has beenessential for making the argument for moretravel. Its effort to demonstrate its positiveimpacts on development overseas has alsohelped. But a vocal minority contest thisnarrow definition and question whetherhuge tourism influxes are really beneficial.

Todays experienced travellers demandexceptionally high levels of comfort andservice always tailor-made to theirpersonal preferences. The generation oncecalled the digital natives who grew up withconnected technology, now approachingits 40s, demands seamless check-in andjoined-up journeys. If UK companies cantprovide that, they pick an international firm

that can. All forms of transport have hadto install larger seats to cope with the onein three UK passengers who are overweightor obese.

British holidaymakers demand a hugerange of choice: very short breaks but alsotwo-year sabbatical experiences; long-haulfrom one megacity to another, but alsoshort hops between towns.

Some demand quick, indulgent trips thattake them far and fast to the exotic endsof the earth for a weekend; many more arelooking at experience-based travel, tailoredaround their current hobby or interest attimes and places that suit them. The fast-paced intensity of the world means that

those offering escapism, adventure andrelaxation are prospering, whilst spreadingglobalisation and massive tourism flowsmean that the top-end market pays for thegenuinely authentic, memorable, isolated,culture-rich and novel. This proliferationof choice means smaller companies haveprospered in their own, innovative niches,whilst international consolidation amongstmedium to large firms from within andoutside sector has been intense.

The new means of moving have alsobeen exciting. Things have come a longway from the pioneering days of the firstspace-tourists in 2001. Today, suborbitalspace flights frequently transport thewealthy into near space. Entrepreneurs andresearch teams are developing advancedtwin-fuselage aircraft, hypersonic jets andsuper-jumbos. One company has trialedhigh-tech Carbon scrubbers installed inthe desert and powered by solar energythat, as the slogan alleges, clean theair so we can travel. Trials were heavilydelayed in the hunt to find a secure wayto store the C02 in a way that avoidedleakage. There are even plans for ahydrogen plane and serious talk inthe industry of zero-carbon flying by

mid-century.

By seaOn the seas, the largest ships routinelycarry 7,000 passengers. These cities onwater feature everything you could possiblyneed, from circus entertainment to cosmeticsurgery. One UK University offers a cruiseterm for students, where lectures, tutorialsand site visits take place from the water.

Meanwhile, smaller powercraft criss-cross

the oceans in personalised point-to-pointtravel for the rich, and hybrid electric sailsare being used on some vessels. As a result,shipping lanes are crowded and queuingto get into ports is common.


the UK outboundtravel and tourismindustry

The travel industry today has grown andtransformed to meet the new demandsfor further, faster and more comfortabletravel that meets pollution targets andremains affordable.

By air

For airlines, the pace of innovation hasaccelerated: ambitious year-on-yearimprovements in engine efficiency andhighly efficient air traffic management havebeen essential in making air travel affordablein a world of globally priced carbon.For example, new open-rotor engines arebeginning to enter service on some routes.The skies are still filled with conventionaljets, some of which are now burning algae

fuel blends. Because many consumers andoperators favour clean fuel resupply,certain airports use higher mixes thanothers. Customers can pick their airporton the basis of the fuel mix available butthis also has a bearing on the cost of flights.

However, questions still remain over howsustainable biofuels really are on a largescale. Critics have accused the industryof glossing over the impacts of massivebiofuel production on food supplies.Food prices have continued to rise, with

the worlds population now at 8 billion.This ramps up the pressure on biofuelproducers as jittery investors continue toraise doubts about its long-term viability.


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the holidayjourney 2023

The solo travellerA video message from the Head Teacherwakes Imran at his flat in Cardiff. Theresbeen another heatwave so college is closedfor the rest of the week time to go abroad.Imran rolls over to his digital bedside tableand searches for a quick break. It looks liketheres a good deal to Bolivia, with Chinesecompany Xinzi offering a point-to-pointflight leaving in twenty minutes. So, afterchecking the companys carbonmanagement certification, he checkshis bag in and selects the videos for hispersonalised in-flight magazine. Then itsa short walk to the local airfield and hesaway on one of those new super-efficientplanes that lands at one of Bolivias manyairfields. After 20 minutes by solar-powered

boat across Lake Titicaca, he is relaxing forsix days and experiencing a new culture, butits much more crowded than hed hoped.

The family holidayLike most families, the Lawsons are regulartravellers and have already taken a six-daybreak in Brazil and a weekend in Lebanonearlier this year. For Christmas, they wantsomething really different, and theirsupermarket has offered five tailor-maderecommendations in a video clip, automati-

cally personalised from their feedback onprevious holidays. Their childcare needsand dietary requirements are built in to allof the suggestions. The family selects a15-day rail and waterway extravaganzaacross Russia. The youngest daughter,Violet, has spent weeks exploring all thesights virtually and is excited about seeingthe real thing. The trip is a huge success,

with the highlight on their last day whenthe family put on their digital glasses toexperience a re-enaction of the stormingof the Winter Palace.

The retirement tripMr and Mrs Jones are looking forwardto their retirement: John has sold his onlinebusiness and Anna has opted to workremotely part-time for her job with a bigIndian bank. Theyve saved up the cashand set aside two and a half years to travelthe world. The couple set off with a gentlefive weeks retro-backpacking in Australiaand the nostalgia bungee jump is a big hitwith Anna. Whilst in Singapore, Johnsplanning to have his hip done at a walk-incentre before relaxing for four months at

their favourite Golden Years UK HolidayVillage in Vietnam.



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destinations

Hundreds of millions of tourists travellingacross the world have created seriousmanagement problems in all destinations.But leading destinations have adoptedsome highly innovative managementstrategies in order to continue towelcome large numbers of visitors.

Overcrowding anddisappearing wildernessOvercrowding has presented the greatestchallenges to most destinations, and thenatural environment has suffered as a result.Many coastal resorts in popular places likeMorocco and the Black Sea have reachedsaturation. Here, criminal gangs have takento trucking lorry-loads of stolen beachsand to places in short supply.

The erosion of many natural areas

has put off some visitors. This leadsto a constant pressure to open upmore and more land to tourism.

Wilderness is the scarcest resource.Unclimbed peaks, uncharted riversand unlittered beaches are a thing of thepast. The paved road to Mount Everestsbase camp with its commercial vendingmachines has provoked furious protests.

It is becoming increasingly difficult tooffer genuinely isolated experiences.

One high-profile court case in Londonrecently ruled that a company had mis-sold a remote adventure that wasspectacularly disrupted by 500 Chinesemotor-racing enthusiasts. Expectationsare now better managed: tour operatorshave been forced to redefine remoteto mean non-urban, and the luxuryof reaching some of the planets

last remaining untouched areas isreserved for billionaires.

From local town halls in destinations toconcerned holidaymakers back in the UK,many are now asking: how long can thisgrowth be maintained? Have we sacrificedour wild spaces forever?

Innovative strategies toovercome the crowdsIn order to manage this growth, alldestinations have changed. Cities like Paris,New York and London are feeling the strain,with infrastructure close to breaking point.Tight management is an imperative: visitorsare timed and ticketed as they are herdedbetween popular attractions.

Increased demand for travel combined

with a warmer climate has brought aseasonal shift, with autumn and springin Europe increasingly popular and lessexpensive. Destinations are keen to promotethis: spreading demand across a longertourism season not only keeps cash flowingthroughout the year, but also helps to dilutesome of the intense pressures on water andenergy supplies during the summer months.

Glamorous campsites have sprungup near some of the worlds mostpopular tourist sites to meet the need for

accommodation. Booking ahead is essentialin these places. Online communities havealso developed to connect would-becampers with sites in peoples gardens,fields and forecourts.

Pop-up hotels that can be re-assembledin any location during peak times provideanother solution; stackable modules

delivered by ship provide cheap rooms,bathrooms and the latest digital technolo-gies within a simple container. Floatingresorts that are towed to new locationsare booming along the crowded coastlines.

Technology provides some respite, helpingholidaymakers navigate saturated placesand offering attractive new handheldentertainment to make up for disappointingsights. Personal communication devices areall fitted with GPS, and optimised searchesmake it easy to find places to sleep, eator be entertained, tailored to the usersown needs and mood.

At the larger attractions, just as audiohandsets used to offer a spoken voicein a museum, todays augmented realityheadsets allow you to visualise your guideand show you how a place would have

looked in a different era. For example,The Real Pyramids Experience, part-fundedby a global drinks brand, allows visitorsto walk amongst digitally-created AncientEgyptians, while the illusory guide sipsmodern branded beverages.


Cooperation for successSome destinations have been successfulat managing overcrowding and createda more sustainable pattern of growth.The UK market increasingly views theseplaces as sanctuaries of inspirationamid this hot and crowded world.

For tour operators, cooperation is key.They audit their supply chains closely andtheyve needed to invest in strong relation-ships with communities to manage growth.Good salaries and improved conditions,demonstrating to visitors the benefits oftourism, have been crucial in all destinationsto maintain an attractive experience thatgenuinely welcomes visitors in this highlycompetitive market.

Hoteliers and tour operators in the most

successful locations have cooperated toachieve shared outcomes. For example,collective water management systemsare popular in the Mediterranean, whilstrenewable micro-power is pooledbetween sites in Latin America.


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fastestgrowingholidaydestinations

for UKvisitors

1 The DemocraticRepublic of Burma

2 Yemen

3 Beyond BotswanaPlc (Privatised SpecialEconomic Zone)

4 Somalia

5 Argentina

6 Brazil

7 Antarctica

8 Near space voyages

9 Papua New Guinea10 Kazakhstan



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how we got here

2010 World Trade Organisation warns of a new

era of global protectionism in response tothe economic recession.

2011 Association of South East Asia Nationsannounces a focus on intra-regional tourism.

2012 Weeks before the London Olympics,air traffic control at Heathrow is temporarilyshut down due to an electronic attackby unidentified militants.

2013 Breakthrough in affordable telepresencetechnology. Major US company declaresa permanent one flight per year policyfor senior executives to cut costs.

2014 Ecuadorian government suspends alltourism permits for three years to protectthe Galapagos Islands from furtherenvironmental degradation.

2015 New round of international climate changenegotiations collapses. Asian nations accuseUS and Europe of neo-colonial bullying whilstChina is accused by the US delegation ofsubmitting totally fabricated emissions data.

2016 Caribbean Islands battered by series of stormsthat wreck hotels and cause major disruptionto food supplies. British holidaymakers trappedafter rioting breaks out in several towns.

2017 Devastating bio-chemical attack shuts downUK transport for three days and results inharsh and intrusive increases in travel security.

2018 Two airliners collide after botchedreconfiguration of Pariss air trafficsystems to cope with increased demand.Campaign for Safe Flying organisationholds a rally in London.

2019 Malaria outbreak in Greece sees mass ofcancellations by British holidaymakers.

2020 British cruise ship refused permission todock in Mediterranean after pandemicflu spreads onboard.

2021 Dutch residents describe anarchy after 1,000English, French and German retirees go on aviolent, drink-fuelled rampage in Amsterdam.

2022 Newly elected Mayor of one Mediterraneantown declares the beginning of the endof tourism after voters turn against massvisitors following local damage.

the world in 2023

Devastating impacts ina divided and fearful world

Climate change has begun to severelyimpact on travel and tourism worldwide,and the knock-on effects have beenprofound. Rising sea levels and morefrequent, extreme weather events batteronce popular destinations; unexpectedsocial unrest, population movements andfood rioting create problems elsewhere.Parts of the Mediterranean are fast becominguncomfortably hot during the holidaymonths, and fierce fighting over watershortages has obliterated tourism in partsof North Africa. The financial cost of climatechange from higher insurance premiumsto increased taxation to fund recovery efforts has hit both businesses and consumers.

A lack of global cooperation over theinterrelated issues of trade, climate changeand key resource shortages has split theworld into protectionist blocs. The prevailingmentality is to look out for ones nationalinterest. Borders are closed down with tightsecurity, and the hassle of visas and extrasecurity checks impedes travel acrossthe world. Obtaining the correct papersto travel to some parts of the Far Eastis now so complicated that it has put offmany holidaymakers, whilst some regionsin Europe have withdrawn from visacooperation meaning extra paperwork

is required to visit certain cities.

International trade is lower andprotectionism is much stronger inthis world of moderated, regionalisedglobalisation. Costly oil and uncertainresource supplies mean supply chainsare shorter and international migrationis more tightly confined to regions.

24 Scenario 2: divided disquiet


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political unrest has fuelled instability andgovernments are struggling to maintaincontrol, particularly in areas with largedisplaced communities. This has disruptedtourism: recent rioting over food suppliesin South Asia has caused a sharp drop invisitor numbers. Always-on communicationsthat instantly transmit the news in vivid videoto UK consumers make such experienceseven more alarming.

Europe has changed

Hotter summer temperatures makesouthern Europe more uncomfortable.Heatwaves, flash flooding and malarialoutbreaks continue to put off many visitorsand make people much more picky aboutwhere and when they go. Competition forhotel rooms, compounded by new restric-tions in some areas, has driven up prices.Air routes are more crowded and costlyfor operators.

There has been a marked decline in thepopularity of winter sports. Snowlineshave risen and the seasons shortenedwith severe economic consequencesfor these communities.

Travel is highly selective

The mindset of the UK holidaymaker haschanged. Looking out on the world, manyin the UK have become more fearful, lesscurious and more sensitive about their travel.

The idea of holidaying abroad is stillattractive, but British visitors are highlyselective in where and when they go, andthey seek out large amounts of informationin advance. They may want to avoid aparticularly dangerous time of year forweather events, or refuse to travel on

a certain form of transport thats perceivedto be more risky. But not everyone sharesthe same views: perceptions of risk arecomplex and very personal.

When people do travel to far-flung places,the journey is generally long and frustrating.Recent bio-chemical attacks have ledto intense security, long queues andmind-boggling bureaucracy acrossthe world. Travel is no longer seen asrelaxing but as a time-consuming burden.

Once there, the experience frequentlydisappoints. Poor management of keyresources, energy blackouts, expensivefood, clear exploitation of workers, andendemic poverty all make people thinktwice about returning. The pockets ofwell-managed destinations that actedearly are heavily in demand.

Some voice concerns that going onholiday makes the worlds problemsworse: saturating destinations; destroyingsensitive environments; encouragingappalling working conditions; contributingto climate change; and leaving few realbenefits to local communities. The casefor the real economic and social benefitsto host destinations has not been made;instead, stories of child labour and lowwages in hotels and on tours regularlyfeature on the news sites.

Holidaying in the UK is more common,

as it is in the more easily accessible andfamiliar parts of Northern Europe. Thewarmer temperatures in these safe areasare an extra attraction. When peopledo venture further, English-speakingcountries are favoured.

Unprepared destinationshave been battered

Although the forecasts for climate changewere relatively clear, many destinationsfailed to prepare adequately and the knock-on impacts and security implications havebeen dramatic. Sea level rises, increasedflooding and more frequent droughts createphysical barriers to visiting some places,but it is the human problems of foodshortages and malnutrition, malaria,and conflict over scarce resourcesthat create the greatest obstacles.

The global population of 8 billionpeople has created huge pressures onfood and energy. Nearly 2 billion areliving in areas of absolute water scarcity.Large scale movements of populationshave created big social challenges, andtourism is an adventure activity foronly the bravest in the worst hit areas:the Sahara to the Middle East andCentral Asia, sub-Saharan Africa,South Asian waterways and SmallIsland States.

Some destinations that once welcomedBritish tourists, like the Maldives, DominicanRepublic and The Gambia, have foundthe changing climate too much to handlealongside the intense pressure on localresources like water, land, timber and fish.The collapse in visitors has shattered localeconomies, causing further environmental

catastrophe as populations are forced toransack natural resources as with theboom in illegal logging just to survive.

In the Middle East and Africa, water warshave been particularly violent. Famine anddrought continue to pose massive problemsin ever more places. Across the world,



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the UK outboundtravel and tourismindustry

The UKs travel and tourism industry hastried to evolve to cope with this challengingand uncertain world. Much of the industryfocuses on getting higher value from smallernumbers of visitors. However, the challengeshave been immense and there has beenmass consolidation.

Long-term planning is very difficult; flowsof visitors are fragile and often appear highlyunpredictable as events unfold. Access tokey air routes is disrupted by conflict; piracyattacks on cruises are much more common;key resources such as food and energysupplies are subject to erratic price spikes;and repeated safety failures across manydifferent forms of travel perpetuate aclimate of fear for travellers. The resultantnew legislation, checks, restrictions andmonitoring further burden the process oftravel, inhibiting movement and makingpeople think twice about holidaying.So far, the industry has failed to bounceback from a series of crises and makethe case for travel.

Customer Priorities: selectivesafety and lots of Information

Customers are highly selective in whereand when they travel and how they get

there. Movement within regions is muchmore common than long internationaljourneys. Holidays are sold on thebasis of protection, safety and stability.Avoiding natural disasters, crime andpolitical instability are amongst the keyconcerns for where and when peopleholiday in unfamiliar places.

The high-end market is particularly keenon isolation from the outside world and itsproblems. Larger, walled resorts that allowvisitors to forget whats beyond them arepopular as people seek calm escapes.Security guides a tour guide with amilitary background are often hired aspart of a holiday package to help keepsafe when travelling overseas.

Once theyve found a good place, holiday-makers want to stay for longer and go backtime and time again. People listen to word ofmouth in this complex world, taking advicefrom others but seeking a personalisedtravel experience.

Above all, customers are used to and valuelots of accessible information. For example,British visitors are particularly interested inthe working conditions of those abroad.The media coverage and public debatesover tourisms impacts have made all thisessential. Customers routinely boycottareas employing child labour or offeringpoor wages. This discerning interest appliesto environmental issues too: a zero-carbonhotel is no longer a niche interest itsan essential requirement for many Britishholidaymakers who take environmentalissues more seriously now they can

see the impacts.

Tour operators provide clear safety andsustainability advice, and visitors followit closely. Websites offer prospective visitorsdetailed audit data on the credentialsof hotels, restaurants and attractions.Customers are much more familiar with thesocial and environmental impacts of travel;

they are interested in how well local peopleare being paid and treated; whether localfood and resources are used and managedsustainably; and how much of their cashstays within communities.

A major focus for the industry iscustomer loyalty combined with hand-picked itineraries that meet complexand overlapping needs. For example,a young familys combined work-leisure tripmight demand telepresence technologies,24-hour childcare facilities and guaranteedminimum waiting time at travel ports.

The sector thats booming:Doomsday Tourism

One sector that is prospering isdoomsday tourism, where affluent visitorsrush to see fast-disappearing or threatenedattractions. The melting glaciers ofPatagonia, the disappearing snow capof Mount Kilimanjaro, the vanishing islandsof the Pacific, and the bleached corals ofAustralias Great Barrier Reef are a particularsell. UK holidaymakers are developinga desire to visit the sites that the worldis losing forever.

But there are big risks with such tourism

and the impacts of large visitor numbersare increasingly being felt. There wasrecent uproar after a self-styled ClimateCatastrophe Cruise lost power in theAntarctic whilst viewing glacier degradationand left 7,000 passengers stranded.


Consumers are increasingly recognisinga tragic irony: the large numbers rushingto see a fast-disappearing attraction or atruly unique culture are accentuating theproblems. Environmentalists have begunmassive campaigns to put visitors offgoing to these precious sites.


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excursion around Ireland. The tailor-made itinerary seamlessly integrates theirrequirements: baby care needs; digitallinks for Johns work; and guaranteedwater supplies for the whole trip.

Retired couple

Barry and Adella are approaching retirement,and were thinking about going on a three-month trip. But all the stories in thenews, from the health scares on cruisesto companies going bust and strandingholidaymakers, have put them off goingtoo far. So theyve chosen a two-week tripby boat and rail around the tranquillity ofScandinavia. Simple security and safetyare what sells it for Barry and Adella. Butthat doesnt mean they cant be active:the simulated white water rafting in thehotel pool is a huge hit just like the realthing, but fortunately not as dangerous.

the holidayjourney 2023

Solo traveller

Mark considers himself an ambitioustraveller. Perhaps not as ambitious ashis father, who once told him he flew toThailand twice in a year, but hes still keento see the world, despite being acutelyaware of the risks. The big attraction forMark is to see places hes heard about thatmight not exist when hes older. This year,hes going to visit glaciers in Canada.Whilst hes there, hes going to makea trip to the USA if hes bothered todo all those security checks to get there,he might as well stay for a month.

The Doomsday Canada video lookslike the perfect trip three weeks ofmelting glaciers, declining fish stocks,eroded landscapes and battered coastalcommunities that, the brochure only halfjokingly assures him, wont be therenext year! Apparently, if he pays a specialsupplement, he can also get a boat tovisit a remote part of Alaska that touristshavent been to for almost three years.

Family holiday

The Lowen family are pretty picky abouttheir holiday plans. With a young baby,they are definitely keen to avoid the lengthy

security delays associated with any long-distance travel. And they tried going backto the Mediterranean last year, but thesweltering summer heat and vast numbersof other tourists meant that its not how itused to be: barely a sandy beach left andthe power cuts and water shortages proveda massive inconvenience. So instead,this year theyve opted for a three-week



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in 2015. Revenues from tourism arere-invested in protective schemes,in a desperate attempt to defend a keysource of income from rising sea levels,drought and extreme weather events.But for some, this comes too late: thegovernment-run Tourism Fund in theMaldives has begun relocating residentsto the insurance land in India dueto the relentless rise of the sea.

Businesses and local governmentshave stepped in with innovativeresponses. Local authorities in Spainhave pioneered a water levy for holidayingin water-stressed areas, with the proceedsre-invested in water efficiency measuresand advanced desalination plants. One touroperator has set aside a train carriage tocarry water alongside holidaymakers toBarcelona, dubbed the Hydro Express.More arid conditions mean that someoperators are promoting golf and skiingon sand as the new hot activity.

Governments have sold off key resourcessuch as water, energy or cultural sites tobusinesses in order to secure capital tomaintain them. Some travel companieshave bought into other sectors, like thelarge tour operator that runs the waternetwork in one part of Turkey.

Sponsored heritage is one favoured wayof trying to showcase ancient attractionswhilst managing them sustainably. The EiffelTower was recently auctioned off to a largecorporation which now demands royaltieswhenever the image is used aroundthe world.

destinations

The fortune of destinations is somethingof a lottery. Some have prospered in thesense that more and more visitors havebeen attracted, concentrated into smallpockets of affordability, safety

tourism 2023 full report web version

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