tourism and climate change: towards a new methodology and conceptual model of assessment of...
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TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE: TOWARDS A NEW METHODOLOGY
AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY
BY
ESTHER KAGURE MUNYIRI
Lecturer, Kenyatta UniversityDepartment of Tourism Management
Ecotourism Conference 2012
Economic activity worldwide is estimated at some 5%
contribute 6-7% employment worldwide
1 million tourists in 2010 generated US$1 billion
One of the largest foreign exchange earner – 10% GDP and 9% employment
Kenya
World
BACKGROUNDINTRODUCTION
Climate is ‘average weather.
Climate is average of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time
Climate change - any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity
Late 1800’s - Evidence of anthropogenic climate change first emerged
Late 1950s –Measured the concentration of Co2 levels in the atmosphere
1988 - IPCC - provides scientific view of climate in IPCC Assessment Reports.(1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007)
1992 - Earth Summit - Outcome - UNFCC (key international treaty to reduce GHG
First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism - Djerba – 20032nd - in Davos, Switzerland - 2007.
Tourism
Development of interest on climate change
Impacts of climate change Increased temperature - 0.76°C (1850-1899 & 2001-2005)
Greater tropical storm intensity and peak
More intense precipitation events
longer and more severe droughts
Aim of the study
• To develop a methodology and model for the assessment of vulnerability of tourism to climate change.
• To develop stakeholders’ collaborative and participatory strategies and encourage political commitment in order to tackle present and future impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.
Tourism and Climate
Tourism is a major contributor of Tourism is a major contributor of greenhouse gases which in turn greenhouse gases which in turn contribute to climate change.contribute to climate change.
Key resource for tourismKey resource for tourism
Tourism can be a tool for climate change Tourism can be a tool for climate change mitigationmitigation
LITERATURE REVIEW
increased infrastructure damage
additional emergency preparedness requirements
higher operating expenses (e.g., insurance, backup water and power systems, and evacuations)
business interruptions
Competitiveness
Profitability
Impacts on tourism
Most vulnerable - the Caribbean, Small Island Developing States, Southeast Asia and Africa.
Climate poses a severe risk to tourism in relation to extreme events such as floods, droughts and heat waves,
Tourist mobility and flows - mitigation policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions
Shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes is very likely
Poverty reduction, health and environmental Millennium Development Goals affected.
Through - transport costs and changed environmental attitudes
National tourism economies of many long-haul destinations
Political instability of some nations
Effect on tourism
Climate-induced environmental changes
changes in biodiversity loss
water availability
increased natural hazards
reduced landscape aesthetic
altered agricultural production
coastal erosion and inundation
damage to infrastructure and the increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases
The case of Kenya
Tourism in Kenya:Contributes 18% - foreign exchange
12% - GDP Faces a number of challenges
–safari and coastal tourism - western markets - leakages, and - climate change.
A leading economic sector in the achievement of Vision 2030 and attainment of the MDGs.
Climate change in Kenya
Kenya’s climate varies considerably
Geography
substantial arid
semi-arid area
coastal tourism resources
unique biodiversity
natural heritage
largely depends on natural resources
the 1999 and 2000 droughts costed 2.4% of GDP
Recent El Niño (1997/98) and La Niña (1999/2000) episodes were the most severe in 50 years
More frequent and severe floods
Kenya’s famine cycles have reduced from :-20 years (1964-1984) to 12 years (1984-1996) to two years (2004-2006) to yearly 2007/2008/2009)
Impacts on Kenya
Declines in annual rainfall
Average annual temperatures increased by 1°C (15 % rise) between 1960 and 2003
Rising temperatures
glaciers on Mount Kenya - disappearing, leading to the drying up of some river streams.
82% of the icecap on mountain Kilimanjaro is gone
projected to vanish in 15 years
Rising sea levels
The destruction of ecosystems essential for the survival of wildlife would be a great loss not only to Africa, but to the planet.
Poverty weak institutions poor infrastructure lack of information poor access to financial resources Low management capabilities armed conflicts high interest rates
Ability to cope compounded by:
An assessment of vulnerability and adaptation is crucial in responding to the changing climate.
Efforts are still preliminary
Vulnerability and adaptation assessment
METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS
Methods of vulnerability assessment
Lacks
PersistenceTimingLikelihoodAdaptationFuture
The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies
Methodologies of vulnerability assessment
Require a lot of data input
Methodologies and theories - limited and mostly address demand side
Most emphases temperature
New methodology should be Bottom - up
2. Describe the current vulnerability of impacts
3. Describe current adaptation strategies
1. Identify issues & determine the scope
4. Estimate future potential impacts and implications
5. Identify additional adaptation strategies
6. Communicate recommendations to stakeholders
New Methodology for tourism vulnerability assessment to climate change
Vulnerability
SensitivityLivelihoodsSpecies habitatTourists perceptionsInfrastructureAttraction characteristics
Magnitude% of people affected% of damage% revenue loss% cost of adaptation% loss of culture% loss of heritage% loss of biodiversity
TimingFrequencySuddennessLinearity
DistributionPopulation groupsRegional groupsHeterogeneityConsequencesSalience level
Persistence & ReversibilityPermanencyCycles changesLand cover changesLoss of snowExtinction of speciesLoss of unique cultures
LikelihoodExpert elicitationsSpread
Exposure
Adaptation (Adaptive capacity)Ability/ capacityResourcesFeasibilityCostsTimeliness(Dis) incentivesCompatibility
SupportDiversificationWarning systemsResearch and monitoringCarrying capacityProtectionConservation
Current Without adaptation
New Conceptual model for assessment of tourism vulnerability to climate change
The proposed conceptual model and methodology are intended to help destination managers and other stakeholders assess in a systematic and structured way the vulnerability of their destinations to climate change, and to identify feasible adaptation options.
A tourism industry that anticipates potential changes is less affected by these changes (less vulnerable), has more possibilities to recover from external and internal shocks (more resilient), has more possibilities to take advantage of the new conditions and is more likely to be successful in the current era of rapid change.
Conclusion
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