DEWAYNE DERRYBERRY

TOURNAMENT POKER

GAMES OF CHANCE

• Roulette wheel

• Deck of cards

• Dice

• Unplayed events• Unplayed events

• Slot machines

SKILL IN GAMES OF CHANCE

No skill

• Roulette

• Slots

• Most casino games

skill

• Poker

• Blackjack

• Sports events• Most casino games • Sports events

• backgammon

SKILL?

• Research –

• Collecting and interpreting lots of data

Decisions

Must matterMust matter

Must be counter-intuitive and/or involve factors of which

many players are unaware.

May involve caclulations which many players are too lazy

to do.

GAME THEORY

• The is a “best” strategy at any form of poker, chess,

checkers, backgammon, bridge, etc.

• It could be written down.

• Even if you knew I was using this approach, you

could not beat it.

• It might involve randomization.

HOLD’EM POKER

• Hole cards Y-Y

• Flop X-X-X

• Turn X-X-X-T

• River X-X-X-T-R• River X-X-X-T-R

• Best five card hand

POSITION

WHY RANDOMIZE

• Best strategy is to only raise from early position with

AK, AA, KK, and QQ and to raise more with QQ and

less with AA.

If you have a lot of chips and I have 55… • If you have a lot of chips and I have 55…

• Randomization reduces predictiability

“BEST” IS NOT BEST

• Guarantee you win

• Minimize winnings

• Optimal strategy exploits the way others deviate

from “best”

EXAMPLE

• Player consistently over bets: Play a few hands

passively at first.

• Player consistently under bets:

• Play many drawing hands to catch big hand.

TOURNAMENTS

• Fixed number of chips

• Blinds double at fixed time periods.

• How much longer can I live? M• How much longer can I live? M

• M > 32

• 32> M> 8

• 8 > M

• M ≈ 3 or 4

EXAMPLES OF PLAY

• How do I play 55?

• M = 40, call and hope to hit 3 of a kind.

• M ≤ 5 go all in, if no one else is in the pot. Fold, it

someone raised.

EXAMPLES OF PLAY

• You hold A-3 spades

• Flop spade – spade – other

• (M ≤ 12) Go all in, if no one else has acted, fold if • (M ≤ 12) Go all in, if no one else has acted, fold if

someone else has gone all in.

• Deception -- Also go all in with three of a kind or top

two pairs in the same situation.

FOLD, CALL, RAISE

• Fold or raise often the only choices.

• M low…

• Bottom two pair on the flop. If someone in front of

you raises, re-raise or fold, never call.

A COMMON SITUATION

• Someone raises early, you have 5-5.

• What might they have

• How might you win (1-8)

POKER STRATEGY

• Knowing all the factors relevant to a decision

• Developing an intuitive feeling for when people are

weaker or stronger than they appear to be.

• Don’t make any big mistakes. Realize most of the

game falls into about 50 common situations.

• Become emotionally disciplined.

SUMMARY

• “Best” strategy

• Game theory

• Odds and quick calculations

• Developing a feel for people and situations