toward a moist dynamics that takes account of cloud systems (in prep. for jmsj) brian mapes...
TRANSCRIPT
Toward a moist dynamics that takes account of cloud systems(in prep. for JMSJ)
Brian MapesUniversity of Miami
AGU 2011 YOTC session
Motivation
• Disconnect between detailed observations and large-scale desires that justify them
– Observations are 4+ dimensional (xyzt + scales)– rich mesoscale texture (cloud systems)
– How can this truly inform modeling?
Example: mixing in convection
Brooks Salzwedel Plume #1 2009 12" x 8” Mixed Media
“The authors identify the entrainment rate coefficient of the
convection scheme as the most important single parameter...
[out of 31]...[for]...HadSM3 climate sensitivity”
Rougier et al. 2009, J.Clim.doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2533.1.
Find the entrainment rate coefficient
Oct 18-19
30 hour loop
DYNAMO campaign, equatorial Indian Ocean (Maldives)
S-POL radar reflectivity
300 km
Our disconnect: like premodern medicineForm vs. Function
Connecting form to function
• Definitions & measures of function1. Offline diagnostic: sensitivity matrix
2. Test-harness performance: column with parameterized large-scale dynamics
3. Inline tests: global explicit cloud models
• Ways to control for form– Domain size and shape; vertical wind shear– Conditional sampling (obs??)
Connecting form to function: one model approach
• Definitions & measures of function1. sensitivity matrix
• Ways to control form– Domain size and shape
• Work of Zhiming Kuang (2010, 2012)
Sensitivity matrix M:
• a definition & measure of function– Kuang (2010 JAS) devised a way to build it
– using a CRM in eq’m, then matrix inversion– works because convection is linear enough
» as shown also in Tulich and Mapes 2010 JAS
M from 128x128km 2km-mesh CRM in Rad. Conv. Eqm.
0
0 1 2 5 8 12 0 1 2 5 8 12 z (km) z (km)
0 1 2 5 8 12 0 1 2 5 8 12 z (km
)z (km
)
Effect of T’ on subsequent 4h heatingp coordinates view
each built from >100,000 days of CRM time
T’650 >0
inhibits heatingabove
(Kuang 2012)
Sensitivity of column integrated heatingto T’ at various pressure levels
T’70
0 >0
inhi
bits
he
ating
abov
e
Sensitivity of 4h rain to T’
Sensitivity of 4h small domain rain to T’ and q’
WARM AND MOIST PBL IS VERY FAVORABLE
Moisture in free troposphere is favorable
Warm air is a buoyancy barrier. This “effective inhibition“ layer extends up to 400mb!
What is “organized?” Storms in 2048 x 64 km domain (unsheared RCE)
• Midlevel inflows, “layer overturning”• Coherent structures fewer of them, so ZK had
to use >200,000 days of CRM time for...
Organized convection: different sensitivity
Organized convection sensitivities to large-scale (domain-mean) T anomalies:
inhibits heatingabove
Organized 4h heating sensitivities to large-scale (domain-mean) T anomalies:
• The basic column vector (heating profile) is deep heating & PBL cooling
• +/-
• (plus local damping of T’, diagonal blue values)
Sensitivity of 4h big domain rain to T’ and q’
Much more sensitive to domain-mean moisture anomalies at various levels above PBL
Positive influence of T’ now up to 700mb (not just PBL “parcel” level)
“inhibition” layer now 600-300 mb
Kuang pers. comm. Saturday
Organization: A 2D-3D continuum?3D – small- No Shear
3D – With Shear
Strict 2DMapes (2004)
x (km)
doubly periodic
Connecting form to function:• Need definitions / measures of function
1.
2.
3. Full ‘inline’ tests: global models with explicit convection
Super-parameterization vs. Under-resolved convection
‘Super’ vs ‘Under’ explicit convection global models:
• Teraflop for teraflop, which one gives better performance? (by what metrics?)
– ‘Under’ keeps the spectrum-tail mesoscale, but compromises on convection resolution
– ‘Super’ emphasizes convective scales, and accepts (hard-wires) a scale gap
Key points/ conclusions
• Mesoscale/multiscale structure confounds obs-model connections
• Need an account of how form relates to function• We have an accounting system (budgets, primes and bars),
but a scientific account is more than that
• Defining “function” is half the battle• Controlling form is the other half
Results• Offline diagnostic of function: matrix M• 4 hour rain sensitivity, from 128km CRM, shows:
– High sensitivity to PBL (“parcel”)– free trop q ~uniformly important at all levels– inhibition applies up to 600mb
• 4 hour sens. from 2048 x 128 w/ mesoscale org differs:– More sensitive to q’ in free troposphere– T’ at 700mb is a positive influence now– ‘inhibition’ layer extends up to 400-300 mb
• A continuum from isotropic 3D to strict 2D?
• Inline approaches: interesting comparison needs doing– Super-parameterization vs. under-resolved convection
• Working to bring in obs (having model predictions helps)