Toward the Top: Future Presidential Leadership and the

Realities of the Numbers

Peter Eckel, Ph.D.

Center for Effective Leadership

www.agb.org

Key Questions

• Why focus now on presidential leadership planning, transition and succession?

• What is the state of the leadership pipeline, short- and long-term?

• What can be done to develop the pipeline?

Why leadership for the future?

• Anticipated turnover and little progress on diversity.

• Lack of intentional investment in future leaders.

• Higher education is in a high stakes environment, facing high expectations and difficult challenges with no tested solutions – multi-generational solutions.

The Aging of Presidents: 1986 and 2006

41.6

8.1

44.4

42.6

13.9

49.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1986 2006

61 or older

51 to 60

31 to 50

Women Presidents by Institution Type: 1986 to 2006

13.8

28.8

16.6

3.8

21.5

10.0

23.2

16.1

7.96.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1986 1990 1995 1998 2001 2006

Doctorate-Granting Master's Baccalaureate Associate's Special Focus

Minority Presidents: 1986 and 2006

5

1

1

6

14

2

0

1

5

8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

Hispanic

Asian American

American Indian

African American

Total Minority

1986

2006

Actual and Projected Number of Public High School Graduates,

by Race/Ethnicity, 2001 to 2021

1,588,455

1,859,514

393,363434,234

244,143161,093

780,268

480,187

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2000-01 2003-04 2006-07 2009-10 2012-13 2015-16 2018-19 2021-22

White African American Asian American Hispanic

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.

Facing Challenges with Multi-Generation Solutions

• Obama Administration – “by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.” (Canada leads at 55%)

• 76% of Governors described initiatives to foster partnerships that link the research capacities of college and universities with business needs.

Limited Investment in Leadership:On-Campus Leadership Programs, by

Institutional Type

5838

28

49

26

4262

73

51

74

Doctorate-Granting

Master's Baccalaureate Associate's Special Focus

No

Yes

CAO Participation in Formal Leadership Programs,

by Gender and Race/Ethnicity

37%24% 28%

51%

15%30%

63%76% 72%

49%

85%70%

Women Men White AfricanAmerican

AsianAmerican

Hispanic

No

Yes

The Pipeline Up

First-Time Presidents’ Pathways to the Position: 2006

23

17

5

16

40

Provost/VPAA OtherAcademic

Officer

Chair/Faculty Non-AcademicOfficer

Outside HigherEducation

Academic Positions = 61%

Lost Capacity? Next Career Steps, As Reported by Successors

Other/ unknown, 10%

Moved to a different CAO position, 12%

Took another administrative position , 13%

Took position outside

academe, 4%

Retired, 21%

Moved to a presidency,

20%

Returned to the faculty,

18%

CAOs’ Presidential Aspirations, by Gender and Race/Ethnicity

47% 44% 47%

25% 33% 36%

28%23%

24%

27%

33% 30%

25%33% 28%

48%35% 34%

Women Men White AfricanAmerican

AsianAmerican

Hispanic

Intend toseek apresidency

Undecided

Do notintend toseek apresidency

Select Reasons for Not Aspiring to a Presidency, by Minority Status

16%

68%

25%

3%

27%

20%

33%

12%

53%

24%

13%

26%

29%

24%

Do not feel prepared to succeed inposition

Nature of work is unappealing

Don't want to live "in a fishbowl"

Not comfortable with the searchprocess

Time demands of the position

Want to return to academic workand/or classroom

Ready to retire

Minority

White

Select Reasons for Not Aspiring to a Presidency, by Gender

65

31

26

27

24

23

68

33

13

26

18

27

Nature of work is unappealing

Ready to retire

Too old to be considered

Time demands of position

Want to return to academic workand/or classroom

Don't want to live "in a fishbowl"

WomenMen

Select Reasons for Being Undecided, by Minority Status

19%

26%

73%

35%

25%

17%

10%

64%

37%

22%

Concerns about the search process

Do not know if I have the skills tosucceed

Uncertain if I will like the nature ofthe work

Concerns about balancing familyand job demands

Might want to return to theclassroom/lab Minority

White

Select Reasons for Being Undecided, by Gender

24

3

21

72

40

27

14

13

6

27

71

30

21

18

Concerns aboutsearch process

Do not know enoughabout position

Question skills tosucceed

Nature of the work

Balancing family andjob demands

Might want to returnto the classroom/lab

Considering workingoutside academe

Women

Men

Perceptions of the Presidency

New CAO Frustrations with Their Presidents

• Too driven or Not driven enough

• Insecure or Egotistical

• Micro-manager or Absent

• Indecisive or Autocratic

• Complacent or Too many commitments

The Initial Rung: Faculty at Four-year Institutions

65 or older, 5%

55 to 64, 16%

45 to 54, 17%

35 to 44, 12%34 or younger, 3%

Not on tenure track or no tenure

system, 48%Tenured or Tenure-track, 52%

Succession Planning or Not?

CAOs’ and Presidents’ Previous Institutions

52%

43%

64%

8%

28%

4%

CAOs Presidents

Did not work at acollege oruniversity

Differentinstitution fromcurrent job

Same institutionas current job

Number of CAO Career Moves

40%

15%

4%

42%

Stayed at oneinstitution

Changedinstitutions onceor twice

Changedinstitutions threeor more times

Moved in and outof highereducation

Ensuring the Future Presidency• Restructure the CAO position (terminal position for 53%).

• Expose future leaders to the joys of the presidency.

• Seriously encourage talented people to prepare for a presidency early; intentionally support them.

• Adopt recruitment (not search) approach; think differently about the hiring process and assumptions.

• Explore different career ladders, but understand short-cuts rarely exist.

• Provide deep sources of political capital to internal candidates.

• Can we rethink the structure and demands of the presidency?

Thank You