towards a ‘classical keynesian’ analysis of effective demand in the long period
TRANSCRIPT
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Towards a ‘Classical-Keynesian’ Analysis of Effective Demand in the Long Period
The 12th Post Keynesian International ConferenceUMKC
25 Sept 2014
Man-Seop Park, Korea University
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• To provide a framework for the (long-period) analysis of (Keynesian) effective demand which is compatible with the Classical/Sraffian perspective
(Arising from criticisms of the Cambridge and the Kaleckian approaches)
• (To show how the ‘given’ quantities of output in the Sraffa system can be interpreted as those being determined in accordance with Keynes’s principle of effective demand)
2
The objective(s)
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• Part I: main ideas in terms of the aggregate economy• Part II: a formalisation for the aggregate economy• Part III: a multi-sector model
3
The paper(s)
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Part I
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• given - the methods of production - the ‘normal’ real wage rate (or the ‘normal’ rate of profits) - the saving propensities of social classes
the ‘normal’ rate of accumulation is determined:
• the principle of effective demand: generating saving through changes in the size of capital stock
cI s rK
Effective demand in the long period: the Classical-Keynesian perspective
5
cg s r
cg s r
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( )r f w
w g
r
Effective demand in the long period
6
rcg s r
*g
*r*r
w
g
K
*g
I gK
0I
1I
0K
1K
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• The ‘long period position capital equipment’ / A ‘fully-adjusted position’
• ‘The long period position exists in the present’
• Two parts of a long-period analysis
• Three states of the economy for the first part of a long-period analysis
7
Key ideas/concepts for a ‘Classical-Keynesian’ approach
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The long-period position capital equipment
tK
1tK
*1tK
tK
time
log Klog Y
*tY
tY*tI
tI
8
warranted investment
autonomous investment
long period positioncapital equipment
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The size (and composition) of the capital equipment ( ) that would have been utilised at the normal level for a given level of investment
• the autonomy of investment not necessarily
• why ‘long period’ ?:(1)‘fully-adjusted’ to the level of output (= utilised at the normal
level) [the first part of the long-period analysis]
(2) regarded ‘normal’ with respect to the current state of effective demand, thus guiding investment in the next period (‘reference point’ /‘centre of gravity’) [the second part]
'K
The long-period position capital equipment
'K K
9
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The long-period position capital equipment
tK
1tK
*2tK
'tK
time
log Klog Y
*1tY
tY
*1tI
1tI
'1tK
2tK
1tY
10
WG
‘realised’
LP
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First part: analysis of the long-period position ‘existing in the present’
Second part: analysis of the sequence of the long-period positions existing in the present
Two parts of the long-period analysis
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The long-period analysis (first part): three states of the economy
tK
'tK
time
log Klog Y *
tY
tY
*tI
tI
The Warranted Growth state
The state of effective demand
The long-period position
The ‘realised’ state
12
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Effective demand in the long period
tK
tK
time
log Klog Y
13
WG
rLP
eLP
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0K
time0 T
0K
rLP
eLP
capacity
autonomous investment
warranted investment
WG
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‘erasing the traces of output loss’:
‘[t]he elasticity of the capitalist economy … in reacting to incentives for a more rapid growth by bringing about additional productive capacity, or, symmetrically, by … erasing the visible traces of the losses in output due to a low such incentive’
(Garegnani, 1992, p. 53)
• the observed tendency, if any, to the ‘normal’ utilisation of the existing productive equipment is a result of the adjustment of supply to demand
15
Effective demand in the long period
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Policy implications(against neoclassical)
• No existence of spontaneous market mechanism which would lead to the optimal use of available resources
• No welfare properties of the paths that the system spontaneously realises
• No trade-off between consumption and investment• No trade-off between public and private expenditure• No unique set of prices compatible with (output) equilibrium• No unique path of optimal growth wide scope for policy
action
16
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Scope for policy action
• Demand policies: both short-run and long effects• Industrial policies: to remove growth constraints• Economic growth is figured partly by the relative power of the
different groups of the society: the conscious social choice of policies
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Part II
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The relation between the quantities of the means of production and the quantities of output in the respective industries is such that
(1) output is produced at the normal utilisation of the means of production
(2) each type of output is produced of the quantity that is exhausted for gross investment and consumption in the economy as a whole (supply = ‘(effectual) demand’)
• The Warranted Growth state (WG)• The long-period position (LP)
A fully-adjusted position
19
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The Warranted Growth state
WG
( )r f w /cs r S K g r r
*r
w / ,S K g*g
*
( )u / ( )K J g
(1)
* *( , , )J K
K
K
*g gumaxu1
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The Warranted Growth state
21
* /Y K v
** *( )Y Kr wlY
** *( )gY CK
• normal utilisation - depreciation: - output:
• price equation
• quantity equation
• saving
* * * * *( )Y C S sr K
*( ), 1u u
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The state of effective demand
– autonomous investment decision in individual industries
22
*, , ,i t i t i tJ z J
- (the volume of gross investment)- the capacity-generating effect: - the effective-demand-constituting effect: - the autonomy of investment: not necessarily
*,i tJ
,i tz
, 1i tz
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(The recurrence relation)
Some examples:
1(1) 1t tz z
1(2) ( 1)t tz z z
1(3) 1t tz z K K
23
(7) too complex to formalise (completely autonomous)
(WG)
(Kaleckian)
(Harrod)
(Supermultiplier)
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WG
( )r f w/cs r S K g
r r
*r
w / ,S K g*g
*
( )u / ( )K J g
(1)
* *( , , )J K
K
K
*g gumaxu1
The effective long-period position (eLP)
eLPK *,J
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The effective long-period position (eLP)
25
• normal utilisation - depreciation: - output:
• price equation
• quantity equation
• autonomous investment
*( ), 1u u
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26
WG
( )r f w/cs r S K g
r r
*r
w / ,S K g*g
*
( )u / ( )K J g
(1)
* *( , , )J K
K
K
*g gumaxu1
eLP nLP
The notional long-period position (nLP)
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The notional long-period position (nLP)
27
• utilisation
• depreciation
• autonomous investment
• price equation
* quantity equation not holding
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28
WG
( )r f w/cs r S K g
r r
*r
w / ,S K g*g
*
( )u / ( )K J g
(1)
* *( , , )J K
K
K
*g gumaxu1
eLP nLP
The realised long-period position (rLP)
u
( )ur
g
g
( , , )J K rLP
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The realised long-period position (rLP)
29
(' / )'Y Ku v
'' ( ' ) 'Y K wlYr
' ( ' ) ' (1 '' )Y K wlY s rg K
(' ')u
* * *(1) ( ') ' ' , 'u u r zr g zg * * * * * * *(2) ( ') ' ( ) , ' ( )u r z r g z g
*( ' ')g K J zJ
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• in the short period, the rate of real wages is not necessarily at the ‘normal’ level
• the short period rate of real wages is determined in reference to
- the given money wage rate (determined by short-period wage bargaining)
- the short-period price level (determined by some short-period price setting procedure
such as mark-up pricing)
Short period
30
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( , )Y Y w J Y
WP
w
Short period
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LP for
SP for
SP for
WP
w
( , , )w J W
( ; , ) *Y P J W Y
( ; , ) *Y P J W Y
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(SP-1) (SP-2) (SP-3) (SP-4) (SP-5) (SP-6)(SP-7)
32
Short period
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33
~𝑃 𝐴
𝐴𝑎𝑏
𝑃𝑎
𝑃𝑏
Short period
𝒀
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• the ‘employment curve’:
- from the rLP, one obtains for each w
• The ‘wage bargaining curve’
34
The normal real wage rate
( )/d e wL L e
dL lY
0
( ); (0( )
) 0, 0 1w w e
w if e e
w f e f f if e e
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35
𝑤
1
𝐴
𝑤𝐵
𝑒𝐴
𝑤𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑒𝐵
𝐵
𝑤=𝑤(𝑒)
𝑒=𝑒(𝑤)
The normal real wage rate
the existence
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36
𝑤
1
𝐴
𝑒𝐴
𝑤𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑤=𝑤(𝑒)
𝑒=𝑒(𝑤)𝑒=𝜀(𝑤′ ′)
𝑤𝑚𝑎𝑥′ ′
The normal real wage rate
the stability
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Part III
37
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Multi-sector model
• The prices of production
• The financial market for allocating aggregate saving
38
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* * * * * * * * * *
*
[ ]([ ] ) [ ] [ ]
1
i i i ix r w x x
I A p l B p
dp
* * * * * * *[ ]i ig h x B x A d
* * * * * *[ ]i ig S x A p
A fully-adjusted position
39
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* * * * **
*
*[ ]([ ] ) [ ] [ ]
1i i i ix w xr x
I A l Bp
dp
p
* * ** *[ ]ii g h x B x A d
* * * * *[ ]i ix S x Ap
* * * * *( )i i i i iJ g x a p
The Warranted Growth state
40
*i iixk a
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41
[ ]ig h B xA x A dx
*[ ]( ) [ ] [ ]
1i i i ix w xr x
I A l
d
p Bp
p
(1 )i i i i ig x z J a p
The effective long-period position (eLP)
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[ ][ ] [ ] [ ]
1i i ii ixrx w x
Ap l Bp
dp
( )i i i i ii x z Jg a p
The notional long-period position (nLP)
*( )i i i ix x
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43
[ ][ ] [ ] [ ]
1i i i i ix w x xr
A p l B p
dp
( )i i i i ii zg x J a p
The realised long-period position (rLP)
*( )i i ii x x
[ ]ig S x A p
[ ]i hg B x A x Ax d