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1Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company

Budget 2016

TOWARDS AN INCLUSIVE AND EMPOWERED INDIA

2 BUDGET 2016: THE NIELSEN VIEW

C O N T E N T S

INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 03

FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS ............................................... 05

RURAL AND AGRICULTURE .............................................................. 08

FINANCIAL SERVICES ........................................................................ 11

TELECOMMUNICATIONS ..................................................................14

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY .........................................................16

KEY INDUSTRIAL SECTORS .............................................................. 19

PHARMACEUTICALS ......................................................................... 22

MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT..........................................................25

THE AUTOMOBILE SECTOR...............................................................27


TO WA R D S A N I N C LU S I V E A N D E M P O W E R E D I N D I ABusinesses can breathe easy now that the government has shown

commitment to fiscal consolidation. Union Budget 2016 holds an

actionable promise of growth and casts the net much wider than in

previous years, resulting in the inclusion of rural India alongside

established urban economies. Considering businesses can thrive

best in thriving communities, Budget 2016-17 has paved the way

for sustained and inclusive growth. However, businesses that

were expecting immediate sweeping changes, may be in for some

disappointment.

Balanced Budget over short-term gains: There is considerable

stress in rural India because of the poor rains, the investment

environment is weak, public sector banks could do with a push and

the global economy is still uncertain. Under these circumstances,

the government has planned a measured increase in tax revenues,

provisioned for growth of infrastructure and shown significant support

for manufacturing in India.

Steady pace over populism: Global markets remain volatile and

sizeable tremors have been felt as close to home as China. In a bid

to remain strong against negative global economic influences, the

government has been pushing the ‘Make in India’ agenda. To this

end, the finance minister made several announcements including

tax benefits to start-ups, ‘Residency status’ to foreign investors, and

modifications in the structure of customs and excise duty to give

impetus to domestic manufacturing by bringing down costs and

increasing competitiveness. What is also reassuring is that Budget

2016-17 projects a realistic commitment by maintaining the fiscal

deficit target at 3.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the

financial year 2017.


Inclusion over indulgence: The clear focus of the Budget this year

has been on inclusion. The reforms will bring much cheer to rural

India, small tax payers across the country as well as citizens below

the poverty line. These measures are aimed at bringing relief to the

extremely stressed rural segment, which has been brought to its

knees by poor rains and unfavourable circumstances. Substantial

allocations have been made for farmer welfare, the development of

safe groundwater, a dedicated irrigation fund and a digital literacy

plan. For businesses marketing to rural India or considering and

entry into these areas, this implies that consumers will have higher

disposable incomes and more access. Small tax payers have got relief

by way of an increase in the ceiling of tax rebate for people with an

income of up to INR 500,000. The measures have been matched with

announcements that cars will get costlier and the super-rich will have

to pay an additional income tax surcharge.

Empowerment over entitlement: The government has made it clear

that they will not hand benefits over on a platter, and would rather

play the role of facilitating inclusive growth and performance. This

is apparent in the provisions made to encourage start-ups, the

impetus given to the Make in India initiative, enablement through

digital programs and financial inclusion. The focus on infrastructure

and roadways points to a strategy that seeks to connect, enable and

empower in the long term.

What stands out in this Budget is the government’s priority of

promoting entrepreneurship to further the Make-in-India vision, and

the development of rural India. By supporting capability development

and promoting inclusion, the Budget shows foresight. What remains

to be seen is how plans of infrastructure and development shape up

and how businesses adapt to the rise of rural India and low income

households.


The big expected consequence from Budget 2016-17, for the Fast

Moving Consumers Goods (FMCG) sector, is the rise in demand from

rural India. This is on the back of reforms that will raise the standard

of living among rural citizens. Additionally, this is a candidly ‘pro-

poor’ Budget with the raising of the tax rebate ceiling and deduction

of additional interest for first time home buyers. Among other similar

reforms, these measures make it very clear for marketers as to which

end of the price scale their product innovations should focus on.

Stable inflation at 5.4%, GDP growth at 7.4%, a disciplined Budget

and stability in the face of global uncertainty bode well for the FMCG

sector. On the other hand, continued investment in infrastructure

and rural development will take time to show results, although it will

certainly help in lifting the sentiment even in the short term.

BOOSt tO RuRAL eCONOMY

The Budget unveiled a target of 100% village electrification by May 1,

2018 alongside the vision to double farmer income by 2020.

To deliver on these targets, the Budget set aside an unprecedented

amount for agriculture and farmer welfare - INR 47,912 crore - a rise

of 84% from INR 25,988 crore last year. This includes INR 6,000 crore

for groundwater management, INR 12,500 crore for irrigation, and

INR 5,500 crore for crop insurance. Moreover, road infrastructure,

including rural roads, has been allocated a sizeable INR 97,000 crore.

SOMIK ROYDIRECTOR NIELSEN INDIA

FA S T M O V I N G C O N S U M E R G O O D S

THE BudgET uNVEILEd A TARgET OF 100% VILLAgE ELECTRIFICATION BY MAY 1, 2018 ALONgSIdE THE VISION TO dOuBLE FARMER INCOME BY 2020.

These measures should ease the burden of the monsoon shortfall of

14%, the receding groundwater and failing crops for the agriculture

sector and farm workers. With higher disposable incomes, the next

wave of growth for FMCG brands may well come from rural India.


SKILLS deVeLOPMeNt & JOB CReAtION

The Budget set aside INR 38,500 crore for the Mahatma Gandhi

National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) – the world’s

largest public jobs programme. There was also a greater focus on skill-

development schemes like the Digital Literacy Mission for villages.

In addition, higher education financing schemes to the tune of INR

1000 crores and the development of a digital repository of educational

certificates should both aid job-seekers.

By developing capabilities and creating jobs, consumers are more

likely to make positive lifestyle changes creating a favourable impact

on FMCG manufacturers.

PRO-POOR Budget

Citizens living below the poverty line have reason to cheer on a

number of fronts. This section of society will get incentives through

subsidised cooking gas. Financial inclusion will also get a shot in the

arm with the increase in the number of ATMs and micro-ATMs in post

offices. Together with the job creation and skill development schemes

these measures will increase disposable income.

tAX MeASuReS

This Budget has proposed a Krishi Kalyan Cess at 0.5%, for the welfare

of farmers. This is applicable on all taxable services like hospitality,

communication, property, insurance and travel, effectively making

the central service tax 15%. This could possibly add to the expense

of manufacturers and traders. Cars are set to become dearer and

consumers saving up to buy a new set of wheels may want to curb

their daily expenses as compensation. New taxes have also been

introduced on cars across segments.

For the fifth successive year, taxes on cigarettes have been increased

by the government. There is a 10-15% increase in excise duty on

tobacco products apart from bidi, which will result in volume decline.

However this excise hike is lower than what was expected and

reflected positively on ITC share prices the day after the Budget.

BY dEVELOPINg CAPABILITIES ANd CREATINg JOBS, CONSuMERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO MAKE POSITIVE LIFESTYLE CHANgES WITH FAVOuRABLE REPERCuSSIONS FOR FMCg MANuFACTuRERS.


FOOd ANd RetAIL

The food-processing industry will see growth and increased

competition from the likes of Walmart and Tesco, with foreign direct

investment (FDI) being allowed for produce grown and processed

in India. There will also be schemes to provide efficient access to

markets and retail. In addition, increased investment in organic

farming and produce, including honey, will drive the growth of organic

produce in retail.

There is a proposal to allow small and mid-size shops to remain

open on all days of the week if they choose to do so. All said, FMCG

retail has complexities arising out of its largely unorganised nature.

Consequently, the exact impact of this will need to be evaluated as and

when it plays out. However, it is safe to assume that these measures

have the potential to drive growth in lower volume-class outlets in

traditional trade through increased competitiveness.

The NielseN View

Determined and sustained investment in infrastructure development

initiatives will provide a constructive impetus in a scenario of stunted

rural growth. The agriculture and farmer security measures will mean

continued growth in disposable income, improved quality of life,

improved accessibility to rural markets and therefore growth in FMCG.

The job creation and skills development measures will hasten the

percolation of positive GDP growth to all economic stratas of society,

and spur consumption across sectors including FMCG.

The middle-class will have to bear the burden of the ambitious rural

plans, with increased costs of tickets for air and rail travel, readymade

clothes, cars, diamonds, mobile bills, movies and cable television,

gold, cigarettes and dining out.

With the big push for rural India in this and the previous Budget, the

economically empowered consumer in the hinterland is expected to

continue to drive growth. Though the middle class will feel the pinch

of higher taxes, stable inflation may temper the tightening of the

consumers’ purse strings. This Budget could turn out to be the trigger

to ignite much-needed domestic demand in an environment of global

slowdown.


R U R A L A N D A G R I C U LT U R EThe proposals in Budget 2016-17 are geared to give farmers income

security. The aim is to double their income in five years, increase

employability and improve infrastructure along the farming supply

chain. Cognisant of the prolonged hardships due to weather

uncertainties in the last two years, the reforms attempt to empower

rural India.

FARMINg ASSIStANCe

The government allocated INR 35,984 crore for agriculture and

farmers’ welfare. Irrigation, central to farm productivity and

consequently farmer income, will have the Pradhan Mantri Krishi

Sinchai Yojana to irrigate 28.5 lakh hectares. Another 80.6 lakh

hectares would be irrigated, with INR 17,000 crore in the FY17 under

the Accelerated Irrigation Benefits Programme, while a Long Term

fund will be set up by the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural

Development (NABARD) for INR 20,000 crore. INR 6,000 crore would

go into a major programme for sustainable management of ground

water resources, and at least 500,000 farm ponds and dug wells in

rain-fed areas and 1 million compost pits for organic manure will be

created by using the allocations under the Mahatma Gandhi National

Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA).

The Soil Health Card Scheme will cover all 140 million farm-holdings

by FY17 and supply farmers with information about nutrient level of

their soil. It will also suggest judicious uses of fertilizers with INR 368

crore provided for the National Project on Soil Health and Fertility.

Fertilizer companies will start having soil and seed testing facilities

in their retail outlets, and also co-market city waste converted into

compost under the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan.

An impetus to organic farming in rain-fed areas will be given under

two schemes that will cover 500,000 acres in three years, for INR 412

crore.

The biggest piece in safeguarding farm income will see INR 5,500

crore for the new crop insurance, Prime Minister’s Fasal Bima Yojana,

for compensation at a nominal premium amount. The target for

agricultural credit has been set at INR 9 lakh-crore for FY17, an all-

time high. Another INR 15,000 crore will go into interest subvention

to reduce the burden of loan payments.

Animal husbandry, dairy and fisheries will get investments to improve

productivity and self-reliance in rural areas.

dIBIYA CHAtteRJeeMANAGER NIELSEN INDIA

THE BIggEST PIECE IN SAFEguARdINg FARM INCOME WILL SEE INR 5,500 CRORE FOR THE NEW CROP INSuRANCE – PRIME MINISTER’S FASAL BIMA YOJANA, FOR COMPENSATION AT A NOMINAL PREMIuM AMOuNT.


eMPLOYABILItY

To boost employability, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural

Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) allocation stands at INR

38,500 crore in FY17. New urban clusters will provide infrastructure

amenities and market access, and expand employment opportunities

for the youth. There are also plans for a rural digital literacy scheme.

INFRAStRuCtuRe HeLP

The critical piece of market access is aimed at implementing the

Unified Agriculture Marketing Scheme for a common e-market

platform spanning 585 regulated wholesale markets. This can be

effected once Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) of

the states are amended, for which 12 states are ready. To ensure

the maximum selling price for farmers, states will be encouraged

to decentralise procurement. The Food Corporation of India will

undertake an online procurement system for transparency and

convenience, and pulses procurement will be made more effective.

The recent ‘mayhem’ with pulses has triggered an allocation of INR

500 crore under the National Food Security Mission for pulses,

covering 622 districts, while INR 900 crore has been allocated for a

Price Stabilization Fund.

The government has Budgeted to spend a total of INR 27,000 crore in

FY17 together with the states, to connect 65,000 eligible habitations by

2019 with roads.

THE RECENT MAYHEM WITH PuLSES HAS TRIggEREd AN ALLOCATION OF INR 500 CRORE uNdER THE NATIONAL FOOd SECuRITY MISSION FOR PuLSES, COVERINg 622 dISTRICTS, WHILE INR 900 CRORE HAS BEEN ALLOCATEd FOR A PRICE STABILIzATION FuNd.


gOVeRNANCe ANd WeLL-BeINg

An enhanced allocation of INR 80 lakh in aid to each Gram Panchayat

on the recommendation of the 14th Finance Commission, will

transform villages. Panchayat Raj institutions will be restructured at

a cost of INR 655 crore in FY17 for sustainable development. INR 150

crore will go into modernising national land records into an integrated

land information management system. Electrification and sanitation

in rural areas are already being orchestrated under nation-wide urban-

rural schemes.

The NielseN View

Such large-scale farming assistance will lead to better yields, boosting

income in the hand of farmers. Ground water recharging will revive

fields where yields are deteriorating, and the organic farming impetus

will open doors in both foreign and domestic markets, in a scenario

where consumers grow health-conscious. Focus on pulses would not

only address locals’ protein deficiency but reduce dependence on

imports and allow food companies to procure at stable prices and

quantities.

The multi-disciplinary approach to the agrarian economy with support

for animal husbandry and crop failure would infuse stability and

sustain rural consumption. Crop insurance schemes could shield

farmers from the vagaries of nature.

Efforts for fair price and better access would reduce farmers’

dependence on debt because they will bring in more liquidity.

Turning to electronic platforms for farm commerce, stock-taking

and information dissemination would lead a more connected rural

populace to more income and employment opportunities, as would

MNREGA’s higher allocation. Companies without inroads to rural

India could unlock a new segment in rural consumers.

Finally, by devising plans for rural governance and other amenities, the

Budget lays the foundation for a more empowered and independent

population, ready to be connected to the rest of the world.


F I N A N C I A L S E R V I C E SDespite a lingering uncertainty in the global economy, India continues

to maintain a steady growth; GDP increased to 7.6% and the fiscal

deficit target of 3.9% of GDP for the financial year 2015- 16 has been

met. In this scenario, what is ambitious in Budget 2016-17 are the

government’s goals on the rural front, because the aim is to double

farmer income over the next five years. To this end, rural employment,

crop insurance and rural credits have been given a distinctive push in

the right direction.

tAXAtION ANd tHe tAX-PAYeRS

While there has been no change in income tax slabs, the Budget

made concessions for small and marginal income tax payers. Reforms

include an additional tax rebate for those earning less than INR 5

lakh per annum and an increased deduction in house rent allowance

from INR 20,000 to INR 60,000 for people living in rented houses.

This will result in about two crore tax payers getting a relief of up

to INR 3000. For first-time home buyers, there is also an additional

exemption of INR 50,000 proposed for housing loans up to INR 35

lakh, on houses valued below INR 50 lakh. The home loan market will

however, see a boost only if the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) follows up

with an expected rate cut. Since the fiscal deficit is under check, there

is definite room for the RBI to cut rates soon.

The proposed reforms are not as kind to the high-income group

with the government tabling an additional 3% surcharge on income

for those earning above INR 1 crore per annum. Other significant

points are the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) contribution by the

government at 8.33% for new employees, and the announcement

that only 40% of withdrawal at the time of retirement under National

Pension Scheme will be tax exempt. This last proposed reform has

faced strong headwinds from the public resulting in its rollback.

The levy of Krishi Kalyan Cess on all taxable services has increased

the overall service tax from 14.5% to 15%. It is clearly an effort by the

government to bring the service tax closer to the proposed GST rate of

18%. However, the insurance sector is set to benefit with a reduction

of service tax from 3.5% to 1.4% of the premium charged on single-

premium annuity plans.

deVBRAt KuMAR DIRECTOR NIELSEN INDIA

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANgE IN INCOME TAX SLABS, THE BudgET MAdE CONCESSIONS FOR SMALL ANd MARgINAL INCOME TAX PAYERS. THE REFORMS WILL EFFECTIVELY RESuLT IN ABOuT TWO CRORE TAX PAYERS gETTINg A RELIEF OF uP TO INR 3000.

12 BUDGET 2016: THE NIELSEN VIEW Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company

BANKINg ANd tHe INSuRANCe SeCtOR

Public sector banks have reason to cheer with an allocation of a

recapitalisation fund of INR 25,000 crore, aimed at easing their stressed

asset situation. Meanwhile, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) norms have

been relaxed to encourage foreign funding in the insurance and pension

sectors. Foreign investment will be allowed through the automatic

route for up to 49%, subject to the guidelines on Indian management

and control, and verification by the regulators. The resultant infusion

of funds will help the capital-intensive insurance sector to grow

aggressively. The limit of FDI in Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARC),

has now catapulted to 100% from the earlier 49%. Moreover, foreign

entities can now invest up to 15% in Indian stock exchanges. This is

likely to enhance competitiveness and result in faster adoption of global

market practices.

FOREIgN INVESTMENT WILL BE ALLOWEd THROugH THE AuTOMATIC ROuTE FOR uP TO 49%, SuBJECT TO THE guIdELINES ON INdIAN MANAgEMENT ANd CONTROL, ANd VERIFICATION BY THE REguLATORS. THE RESuLTANT INFuSION OF FuNdS WILL HELP THE CAPITAL-INTENSIVE INSuRANCE SECTOR TO gROW AggRESSIVELY.

iN This sceNario, which seems coNduciVe To The growTh of The iNsuraNce secTor, healTh iNsuraNce has The scope To grow fasTer, from iTs curreNT modesT peNeTraTioN of 21% iN urbaN iNdia.

healTh iNsuraNce is growiNg, buT could grow fasTer

life iNsuraNce

2010 2013 2015

63 / 66 / 68healTh iNsuraNce

12 / 15 / 21

21%

Source: Nielsen Syndicated Survey 2015 (Urban India)


In a move that is likely to generate awareness and drive growth in

a small way for the health insurance sector, the government has

announced a new health protection scheme of up to INR 1 lakh per

household. On the general insurance front, companies in the public

sector, like New India Assurance Company Ltd., National Insurance

Company Ltd., Oriental Insurance Company Ltd. and United India

Insurance Company Ltd., are proposed to be enlisted in the stock

exchange. This is likely to give them a boost and level the general

insurance playing field. The resultant aggressive involvement of public

sector companies will improve awareness and the proliferation of

general insurance.

The NielseN View

Budget 2016-17 stands out as pro-low-income group, with clear emphasis

on rural development. Significantly, while the income tax slabs remain

unchanged, small tax payers have been given relief at the cost of the

super-rich.

Additional exemptions on housing loan interest for first time home

buyers and waiver of service tax on small houses, are likely to help the

housing sector. A corresponding reduction in home loan interest rate is

however still required to provide a boost to home loans.

Finally, an increase in FDI limits in the insurance and pension sectors is

likely to pave the way for their aggressive growth.


ABHIJIt MAtKARDIRECTOR NIELSEN INDIA

T E L E C O M M U N I C AT I O N STax revenues for the government are expected to go up by 11% over

the current year’s revised estimates, on the back of nearly INR 20,000

crore worth of fresh levies in the Budget. However, non-tax revenues

are estimated to grow by more than double that amount - about 25%

over the revised estimates. A look at Budget 2016-17 shows that a

chunk of this is expected from the telecom sector.

tHe MAKe IN INdIA AgeNdA

The government’s eagerness to see ‘Make in India’ through, is

reflected in the Budgetary reforms for the coming fiscal. The vision

holds true in the policy announcements made in this financial

year on different aspects in the telecom sector including spectrum

sharing and trading, and the proposed auctions for the 700 MHz

spectrum scheduled for June-July 2016. To give an impetus to local

manufacturing, an exemption of customs duty has been proposed on

components for making telecom equipment like routers, broadband

modems and set-top boxes. On the other hand, exemption on

customs duty on batteries, chargers, adapters and wired headsets

and speakers has been withdrawn to encourage local manufacturing.

Finally, exemption is going to be withdrawn from Special Additional

Duty (SAD) on populated Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) of mobile

phones and tablets, while a concessional SAD of 2% is proposed on

populated PCBs for the manufacture of mobile phones and tablets.

TO gIVE AN IMPETuS TO LOCAL MANuFACTuRINg, AN EXEMPTION OF CuSTOMS duTY HAS BEEN PROPOSEd ON COMPONENTS FOR MAKINg TELECOM EQuIPMENT LIKE ROuTERS, BROAdBANd MOdEMS ANd SET-TOP BOXES.


tAX MAtteRS

A welcome move in Budget 2016-17 is the declaration that taxability of

assignment of right to use spectrum is a service. The implication is

that value-added tax (VAT) will not be applicable, though service tax

will. However, there is cause for concern for both operators as well as

consumers with the introduction of a 0.5% Krishi Kalyan Cess which

will result in higher costs for operators and costlier mobile bills for

consumers if operators pass the burden on.

A sensitive area for telecom operators is the all-important

relationship with distributors. Since distributors are practically the

first ‘customers’ of telecom brands, a healthy working relationship

with them is imperative for operators to win in a fiercely competitive

marketplace. Yet, satisfaction studies undertaken by us show that over

the last two or three years, telecom distributors rate their satisfaction

with operators as just about average. Since most distributors in the

industry are a part of the unorganised sector, it is essential for the

sake of transparency and clarity, to resolve whether or not distributor

margins are liable for withholding tax.

A WELCOME MOVE IN BudgET 2016-17 IS THE dECLARATION THAT TAXABILITY OF ASSIgNMENT OF RIgHT TO uSE SPECTRuM IS A SERVICE. THE IMPLICATION IS THAT VALuE-AddEd TAX (VAT) WILL NOT BE APPLICABLE, THOugH SERVICE TAX WILL.

SINCE MOST dISTRIBuTORS IN THE INduSTRY ARE A PART OF THE uNORgANISEd SECTOR, IT IS ESSENTIAL FOR THE SAKE OF TRANSPARENCY ANd CLARITY, TO RESOLVE WHETHER OR NOT dISTRIBuTOR MARgINS ARE LIABLE FOR WITHHOLdINg TAX.

The NielseN View

The main thrust of the Budget for the telecom industry is on local

manufacturing and clarity on certain key aspects. However, some

other key demands, on the direct tax front for instance, have been

pushed to the backburner. Overall, the telecom sector will certainly

keep growing and will likely see an array of new developments

around spectrum auctions, the ever-increasing demand for data,

the rollout of 3G and 4G services by operators and an intensifying

of the competitive landscape with the entry of new players both

in mobility and broadband. Industry leaders are now waiting to

see how these policies impact and increase the share of local

manufacturing in India over the next few years.


I N F O R M AT I O N T E C H N O L O G YThe announcements around Information Technology (IT) in Budget

2016-17 have been described by apex body – the National Association

of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM), as a ‘mixed

bag’. While the government has broadly stayed true to its vision

of transforming India through technology, there are demands like

the removal of dual levies on software products, which remain

unaddressed. An analysis of the Budget shows that the government

integrated IT in four pronounced ways. It went on to boost domestic

production of IT hardware to sync with its Make in India drive.

E-platforms were also provisioned in various segments of the

economy as a service to the public, aiding transparency and speed. It

set out to improve the ease of doing business that would benefit more

IT start-ups. And, keeping its Digital India drive in mind, pushed for

digital literacy for a larger section of the population.

It HARdWARe BOOSt

As the government focuses on encouraging domestic manufacturing

through its Make in India initiative, it rationalised customs and excise

duties for raw materials and manufacturing for the IT hardware sector

in the following ways:-

1. Domestic manufacture of cellular phones will attract only 2%

excise duty, while imports of foreign-made phones will face

29.4% duty, giving a 27.4% protection to domestic cellular phone

manufacturers vis-a-vis importers.

2. The duty on imports of IT components and their sub-components

such as routers, modems, set-top boxes has been reduced (from

12.5% to 4% or even 0%).

3. A broad category of inputs, including parts, components and sub-

parts, is exempt from excise, as well as Countervailing Duty (CVD)

of customs when used for manufacture.

dIgItAL eNABLeMeNt

The Budget illustrates the government’s agenda to enable the rural

population through digital literacy and skill development. It believes

this will unlock the true benefits of India’s democratic advantage.

Besides Digital Saksharta Abhiyan (DISHA) or National Digital

Literacy Mission (NDLM) scheme that has been formulated to

promote digital learning and adoption, there will be a new Digital

Literacy Mission Scheme just for rural India covering 60 million

households in the next three years.

RAJAt guPtA ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR NIELSEN INDIA

THE BudgET ILLuSTRATES THE gOVERNMENT’S AgENdA TO ENABLE THE RuRAL POPuLATION THROugH dIgITAL LITERACY ANd SKILL dEVELOPMENT. IT BELIEVES THIS WILL uNLOCK THE TRuE BENEFITS OF INdIA’S dEMOCRATIC AdVANTAgE.


SKILL deVeLOPMeNt FOR ANd BY It

There will be 1,500 new multi-skill training institutes across the

country. This together with the National Skill Development Mission

that is training lakhs of youth and the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas

Yojana to promote entrepreneurship, will see spends worth INR 1,700

crore. Entrepreneurship education and training will be provided in

2,200 colleges, 300 schools, 500 government Industrial Training

Institutes and 50 vocational training centres through massive open

online courses. Aspiring entrepreneurs, particularly those from remote

parts of the country, will be connected to mentors and credit markets.

PuBLIC SeRVICe tHROugH e-PLAtFORMS

Services have been lined up on electronic and mobile platforms to

enable effective citizen services, particularly for the rural sector. The

automation of 300,000 fair-price shops has been planned for farmers.

Agricultural input information dissemination, food grain procurement

markets, livestock markets would be put on electronic platforms for

ready access by their users. Digital learning programmes too will go

live on e-platforms.

A digital depository for educational certificates and marksheets

to validate their veracity, easy retrieval and safe storage has been

proposed, aimed at helping students, higher education institutions

and employers alike. INR 1,000 crore has been set aside to form a

Higher Education Financing Agency to improve the infrastructure of

our institutions.

Digital record-keeping will be extended to an integrated land

information management system with an allocation of INR 150 crore.

Post offices will sport automated teller machines (ATM) in three

years. 300 rurban clusters in rural areas are planned to act as both

information and skilling centres through use of IT. In addition to

these reforms, a grant of INR 2.87 lakh crore to Gram Panchayats and

municipalities, an increase of 228%, will help speed up IT adoption

too.

eASe OF dOINg BuSINeSS

The Budget extended the deduction under section 10AA of the Income

Tax act for manufacturers commencing work in Special Economic

Zones (SEZs) before 31 March, 2020. The allocation of INR 500 crore

for the Stand Up India scheme would promote entrepreneurship

among backward castes and women. Startups have been given 100%

deduction on profits for three years out of five, except for Minimum

Alternative Tax (MAT), which will apply from April 2016 to March 2019.

The profit-linked tax incentives will also get phased out by March 2020

enabling businesses to plan investments and expansions unhindered.

SERVICES HAVE BEEN LINEd uP ON ELECTRONIC ANd MOBILE PLATFORMS TO ENABLE EFFECTIVE CITIzEN SERVICES, PARTICuLARLY FOR THE RuRAL SECTOR.

AN ALLOCATION OF INR 500 CRORE FOR THE STANd uPINdIA SCHEME WOuLd PROMOTE ENTREPRENEuRSHIP AMONg BACKWARd CASTES ANd WOMEN.


The NielseN View

This year’s Budget has primarily focused on taking the merits

of IT to India’s lesser developed demographics, right down

to the person at the very bottom of the hierarchy. The digital

literacy mission and Skill India initiative will enable the youth

to use technology to their advantage, increasing penetration

of the Internet. This will have a positive effect on IT hardware

manufacturers and service providers. Also, the e-service

delivery platforms shall bring business to IT service providers

as well as system integrators and device manufacturers.

However, there were gaps that were left unaddressed such as:-

1. No policy announcements to improve ease of business for

the IT services sector.

2. Imposing MAT on start-ups could be a dampener for the

Startup India action plan unveiled in mid-January.

3. No change in the dual levies on software products.

4. Continuation of angel taxation, leaving domestic investors

to face a higher tax rate.

5. There remain the issues of high long-term capital gains

taxes and transfer-pricing.


K E Y I N D U S T R I A L S E C TO R SThe Union Budget 2016 - 17 has been crafted in a fairly challenging

economic environment, made up of rising rural distress due to poor

rains, sluggish domestic demand, stressed banks and private sector,

weak investment environment and a volatile global economy. Even

then, the Budget sticks to a realistic commitment by maintaining the

fiscal deficit target at 3.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the

financial year (FY) 2017, after having achieved the target of 3.9% in

FY16.

The total Budgeted productive spending, that is capital spending and

the money for assets for capital creation, amounts to INR 3.13 lakh-

crore, representing a rise of 14.2%. Rather than increase outlays in

one or two key sectors, this Budget approaches infrastructure in an

all-inclusive way with substantial boosts to all the critical sectors such

as road, railways, airports and ports.

The total outlay for infrastructure development is INR 2.21 lakh-crore.

Of this the total investments in the road sector, including the Pradhan

Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana allocation, is INR 97,000 crore for FY17.

ARJuN VASHISHtHAASSOCIATE DIRECTOR NIELSEN INDIA

RATHER THAN INCREASE OuTLAYS IN ONE OR TWO KEY SECTORS, THIS BudgET APPROACHES INFRASTRuCTuRE IN AN ALL-INCLuSIVE WAY WITH SuBSTANTIAL BOOSTS TO ALL THE CRITICAL SECTORS SuCH AS ROAd, RAILWAYS, AIRPORTS ANd PORTS.

There is also a new credit rating system proposed for infrastructure

projects.

Provisions facilitating the entry of private players to run buses in state

transport have also been introduced.

The Budget reiterated the goal announced in 2015 to electrify over

18,000 villages by 2018, with 5,542 villages already covered till

February, 2016.


The Budget announced incentivising gas production from areas that

are not exploited due to high cost risk. It would involve calibrated

marketing freedom, at pre-determined prices, for new discoveries and

areas which are yet to commence production.

There will also be a comprehensive plan, spanning the next 15 to 20

years, to augment investment in nuclear power generation.

A Public Utility (Resolution of Disputes) Bill will be introduced during

FY17, along with guidelines for re-negotiation of public-private-

partnership (PPP) concession agreements.

There were also service tax exemptions and additional exemptions

made towards affordable housing such as a 100% deduction for

profits, except Minimum Alternative Tax, from affordable housing

projects in cities. Home-buyers of affordable housing will also get

income tax deduction on additional interest of INR 50,000 a year on

loans of up to INR 35 lakh for houses costing not more than INR 50

lakh.

To spur the food industry and benefit farmers, 100% foreign direct

investment (FDI) was allowed through Foreign Investment Promotion

Board (FIPB) - government permission, in marketing of food products

made in India. There were also various changes made in customs

and excise duties on components needed in sectors like IT hardware,

capital goods, defence production, textiles, mineral fuels and mineral

oils, chemicals and petrochemicals, paper, paperboard and newsprint,

maintenance repair and overhauling of aircrafts and ship repair; all

geared to improve competitiveness of domestic production.

TO SPuR THE FOOd INduSTRY ANd BENEFIT FARMERS, 100% FOREIgN dIRECT INVESTMENT (FdI) WAS ALLOWEd THROugH FOREIgN INVESTMENT PROMOTION BOARd (FIPB) - gOVERNMENT PERMISSION, IN MARKETINg OF FOOd PROduCTS MAdE IN INdIA.


The NielseN View

The Budget has an all-inclusive approach to boosting infrastructure.

Constructive competition is expected in transport, with the entry of

private buses in state transport.

Improving road connectivity and conditions will bring down a major

cost component in logistics of building materials such as cement

and paint that is transported over long distances by road. So, the

government’s focus on roads will raise manufacturers’ confidence and

help them achieve better economic efficiency in the long term.

The expenditure on rapid electrification is bound to bring smiles to

electrical and lighting players. Even though these sectors are set to

grow, their manufacturers will have to innovate to offer products that

can effectively address the needs of the rural consumer.

The Budget also commits to freeing up gas price, which should help

to speed up gas exploration and production in the Oil & Gas sector.

The Public Utility (Resolution of Disputes) Bill will almost certainly

revitalise PPPs in this industry.

Exemptions in taxes for affordable housing makers will bridge the

significant supply gap, while exemptions for buyers will let pent-up

demand materialise into actual purchase.

The changes in customs and excise duty rates on input components

for a host of industries producing in India will improve domestic

competitiveness and boost the Make in India initiative.


Budget 2016-17 was a mixed bag for the pharmaceuticals industry. On

the one hand, there is reason to celebrate the tax rebate on earnings

from global patent filings, but on the other, there is the proposed cut

on tax rebates on Research and Development (R&D) expenditure.

Public health measures saw further encouragement in this Budget.

PRO-POOR Budget

In a hugely significant move, a health insurance scheme was

announced, which protects one-third of India’s population against

hospitalisation expenditure. The government will provide INR 1 lakh to

families from weak economic backgrounds in the event of catastrophic

health events, where related costs will push the family below the

poverty line. There will be a top-up of INR 30,000 for people in this

category who are above 60 years.

Below-poverty-line (BPL) families will benefit from a new initiative to

ensure a cooking gas or Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) connection

supported by government subsidy. This is to reduce the suffering from

the pollution due to chulha cooking, which is particularly harmful

to women’s health. INR 2,000 crore has been set aside for such

connections that will reach 15 million BPL in FY17 and expand in two

years to cover 50 million such households.

PHARMACEUTICALS

PAttABHIRAMAN IYeRASSOCIATE DIRECTOR NIELSEN INDIA

IN A HugELY SIgNIFICANT MOVE, A HEALTH INSuRANCE SCHEME WAS ANNOuNCEd, WHICH PROTECTS ONE-THIRd OF INdIA’S POPuLATION AgAINST HOSPITALISATION EXPENdITuRE. THE gOVERNMENT WILL PROVIdE INR 1 LAKH TO FAMILIES FROM WEAK ECONOMIC BACKgROuNdS FOR CATASTROPHIC HEALTH EVENTS, IN WHICH RELATEd COSTS WILL PuSH THE FAMILY BELOW THE POVERTY LINE.


ReduCed BuRdeN ON HeALtHCARe eXPeNSeS

Health insurance premium deduction was hiked from INR 15,000 to

INR 25,000 and for senior citizens to INR 30,000. The rebate would

encourage enhanced coverage, thereby reducing the burden on ‘out of

pocket expenses’. Consumers would be less constrained by the tax limit

and would maximize their health coverage.

For senior citizens, the tax exemption on expenditure on specific illness

such as heart ailments or cancer has been increased from INR 60,000

to INR 80,000. For those above 80 years, tax exemption has been

allowed up to INR 30,000 for any medical treatment for self.

Increased tax exemption would have a domino effect among payers.

Increased penetration could persuade insurance companies to decide

inclusion of drugs in the reimbursement list.

Deductions under expenditure towards specific diseases of a serious

nature would see the launch of more disease-specific insurance. The

affordability of drugs, too, will rise given the insurance coverage.

General insurance services provided under the ‘Niramaya’ Health

Insurance Scheme launched by the National Trust for the Welfare of

Persons with Autism, Cerebral Palsy, Mental Retardation and Multiple

Disability have been exempted from service tax. Moreover, generic

drugs, which are lower priced than branded drugs but are as effective,

will have 3,000 new Jan Aushadhi stores selling them in FY17.

The Budget also launched a National Dialysis Services programme

with funds from a public-private-partnership (PPP) model. There is a

demand from 220,000 new patients with renal failure every year for

dialysis centres. Tragically, only half the demand is met, and that too

only in major towns and private hospitals. To answer this pressing

need, the Finance Minister announced dialysis services in all district

hospitals. To cap the cost of each session at about INR 2,000, he

exempted certain parts of dialysis equipment from basic customs

duty, excise or Countervailing Duty (CVD), and Special Additional Duty

(SAD).

The Budget limited the benefit of weighted deductions on research

spends to 150% from 200%, starting FY18, and to 100% starting

FY2020, that would have an impact on pharmaceutical and biotech

companies.

In a positive move, a 10% tax rebate was announced on income

from patents developed and registered in India, which would help

pharmaceutical companies who heavily rely on patents for new drug

filings.

IN A POSITIVE MOVE, A 10% TAX REBATE WAS ANNOuNCEd ON INCOME FROM PATENTS dEVELOPEd ANd REgISTEREd IN INdIA, WHICH WOuLd HELP PHARMACEuTICAL COMPANIES WHO HEAVILY RELY ON PATENTS FOR NEW dRug FILINgS.


The NielseN View

The reforms are a welcome move to enhance health coverage for the

poor, especially hospitalisation charges. So far, India had only the

Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana providing health insurance to BPL

families with hospitalisation coverage of up to INR 30,000 for most

diseases. The top-up clause will reduce the burden of healthcare

expenditure on the aged, a section which needs it the most.

The national dialysis programme will go a long way to improve the

situation in the country, as dialysis is a recurring treatment, needed

almost every week, with patients having to travel miles to reach

the nearest centre. According to the Budget, about 220,000 new

patients with end-stage renal disease emerge every year and there

is an additional annual demand for 34 million dialysis sessions. But

there are only around 4,950 dialysis centres in all of India to service

the demand. The PPP-funded programme would help save patients’

money thereby improving their quality of life. In future, similar policies

could be hoped for cancer care, easing the burden of chemotherapy

and radiation, and increasing access.

The push for wider distribution for generic drugs will bring quality

medicines at affordable prices to people. It alleviates the huge stress

created by medical expenditure in households with diabetes, for

example; given that India has the dubious distinction of being the

Diabetes capital of the world, this would have a sizeable impact.

It would lead to drug compliance, in turn leading to better control on

disease management. Indigenous pharmaceutical companies would

see demand rise while multinational branded players would be forced

to come up with India-friendly pricing.

However, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology players will be

affected by the proposed reduction of weight tax rebate on R&D

expenditure as they heavily depend on it for growth.

For pharmaceutical companies looking at expansion, the tax rebate on

income from global use of patents developed and registered in India,

would be a boon, though.

The digital literacy drive in rural India may pave the way for start-ups

to develop new-age healthcare structures to reach rural India. It would

make it easier to educate the rural audience about disease awareness,

early diagnosis and timely intervention.


M E D I A A N D E N T E R TA I N M E N TNovember 2015 saw some significant announcements made for the

media and entertainment (M&E) sector. These included the much-

awaited increase of FDI limit in news channels and FM Radio stations

to 49%, and 100% overseas ownership of digital cable and Direct to

Home (DTH) services. Under these circumstances, Budget 2016-17

understandably, had little to offer the industry. However, it does stand

out as being ‘inclusive’. Though not ground-breaking, there are three

announcements that are going to impact consumers.

13.8% INCReASe IN tHe OVeRALL Budget ALLOCAtION tO tHe INFORMAtION ANd BROAdCASt (I&B) MINIStRY

A 13.8% increase from the 2015 allocation amounts to INR 4084

crore. Of this, a mere INR 30 crore has been set aside to ‘strengthen

broadcast activities’. These ‘broadcast activities’ include the I&B

ministry’s Electronic Media Monitoring Centre (EMMC), contribution

to the Asian Institute of Broadcasting Development, digitization,

building and machinery, private FM radio stations, as well as the

Community Radio Support Scheme that provides financial assistance

to community radio stations.

The increase also includes an allocation of INR 52 crore for

Doordarshan’s Kisan channel, up from a revised estimate of INR 26.25

crore last year. The channel was set up in 2015 to educate farmers on

the latest technologies in the sector.

BOOSt tO tHe RuRAL SeCtOR

Beyond the I&B Budget, there is a sizeable allocation of INR 87,765

crore for the development of the rural sector. This amount is aimed

at facilitating the creation of jobs, promoting education, boosting

connectivity and achieving the goal of 100% electrification by May

2018. Our studies in rural India and smaller cities have indicated

that television viewership is linked to electrification and general

wellbeing, brought about by availability of jobs and an increase in

disposable income. This boost to the rural sector is likely to result in a

corresponding surge of television viewership in the mid to long term.

ANuPAM AStHANADIRECTOR NIELSEN INDIA

1

2

OuR STudIES IN RuRAL INdIA ANd SMALLER CITIES HAVE INdICATEd THAT TELEVISION VIEWERSHIP IS LINKEd TO ELECTRIFICATION ANd gENERAL WELLBEINg, BROugHT ABOuT BY AVAILABILITY OF JOBS ANd AN INCREASE IN dISPOSABLE INCOME. THIS BOOST TO THE RuRAL SECTOR IS LIKELY TO RESuLT IN A CORRESPONdINg SuRgE OF TELEVISION VIEWERSHIP IN THE MId TO LONg-TERM.


KRISHI KALYAN CeSS

An additional Krishi Kalyan Cess of 0.5%, to be levied on all taxable

services, has been proposed in the Budget. It has been provisioned to

finance and promote initiatives to improve agriculture. This is likely

to positively impact the lifestyle of rural India, leading to increased

media consumption.

There are some other factors which are likely to supplement the

Budgetary momentum and positively impact television viewership in

rural areas and towns with less than 100,000 population.

1. Aggressive marketing and affordable pricing of Doordarshan’s

DTH arm; DD free Dish has increased viewership.

2. The new joint industry council for audience measurement; the

Broadcast Audience Research Council (BARC), has now started

releasing viewership numbers on rural areas and towns with a

population of less than 100,000. Since the introduction of these

measures, marketers and media professionals are looking at these

markets afresh.

POSSIBLe dRAWBACKS

Though fairly insignificant, there may be some negative ramifications

of the reforms proposed in the Budget. For instance, an increase

in service tax as a result of two cesses, namely Swachh Bharat Cess

and Krishi Kalyan Cess makes the tax figure on services 15%. This

is likely to have an impact on marketing spends and other service-

related expenses. Since Internet, cable, television and DTH are

considered services, consumers’ monthly bills will rise. To add to this,

entertainment will get dearer. Film tickets will get marginally costlier.

Apart from the consumer, a short term impact will probably be felt by

broadcasters and publishers as well with the added expenses affecting

advertising revenues. Although not a big increase, these expenses will

pinch the penny-wise public, and may result in a temporary plateau in

entertainment revenues in urban areas.

3

BEYONd THE I&B BudgET, THERE IS A SIzEABLE ALLOCATION OF INR 87,765 CRORE FOR THE dEVELOPMENT OF THE RuRAL SECTOR. THIS AMOuNT IS AIMEd AT FACILITATINg THE CREATION OF JOBS, PROMOTINg EduCATION, BOOSTINg CONNECTIVITY ANd ACHIEVINg THE gOAL OF 100% ELECTRIFICATION BY MAY 2018.

The NielseN View

With a 7.6% growth of GDP, India is viewed as the relatively grounded and steady economy in a

gloomy global scenario. Moreover, initiatives like ‘Make in India’, ‘Digital India’, and ‘Skill India’

have generated a lot of interest in corporate circles resulting in more investments coming India’s

way. It will also result in more marketing spends therefore keeping advertising spends healthy.

Overall, the 2016-17 Budget is likely to push media consumption higher in rural areas and

towns with a population of less than 100,000. Along with the transformation push, the overall

investments and advertising spends are also likely to remain positive.


T H E A U TO M O B I L ES E C TO R The automobile industry in 2015 saw one of the highest production

growths so far. There were plenty of new vehicle launches and

introduction of new segments such as crossovers and compact sports

utility vehicles (SUVs). But this also meant more cars on the roads,

leading to high air pollution and traffic, especially in the capital

city. The finance ministry took cognisance of the repercussions and

devised the Budget accordingly.

INCReASe OF tAXeS ON dIeSeL VeHICLeS, SuVs ANd LuXuRY CARS

With the correlation between automobile fumes and air pollution

in mind, diesel vehicles under four meters and with less than 1500

cc engines, will now attract a 2.5% infrastructure cess. This will

compound the effect of continuous increase in diesel prices, and

affect demand for diesel cars such as SUVs. Such moves are in

contrast with the government’s focus on ‘dieselisation’ not too long

ago. Currently, 40% of passenger vehicles are diesel variants. Larger

vehicles with large engines also mean more emissions. Hence, high-

capacity vehicle and SUV sales will be charged an addition levy of 4%.

Small petrol cars which are under four meters with under 1200cc

engines, will have an extra 1% infrastructure cess.

There is also a 1% tax on luxury car sales of above INR 10 lakh. In a

move towards sustainability, electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel-driven

vehicles have been exempted from additional taxes.

tHe PROMISe OF BetteR INFRAStRuCtuRe ANd ROAdWAYS

While it may be taxing times for the passenger cars market, the

Budget held out the promise for better road connectivity and easing

of traffic with a whopping allocation of INR 97,000 crore for roads

and highways. Of this, INR 27,000 crore will be spent on rural roads,

connecting the remaining 65,000 eligible habitations by constructing

223,000 km of roads. Nearly 85% of 70 road projects spanning 8,300

km at the beginning of FY16, have been put back on track, the Finance

Minister said.

The Budget also welcomes private sector participation in public

transport. The move will enable private players to operate buses for

the masses that will consequently make public transport efficient.

SANdeeP PANdeDIRECTOR NIELSEN INDIA

IN A MOVE TOWARdS SuSTAINABILITY, ELECTRIC, HYBRId, ANd HYdROgEN FuEL-dRIVEN VEHICLES HAVE BEEN EXEMPTEd FROM ALL THE AddITIONAL TAXES PROPOSEd IN THE BudgET.


WHILE THERE MAY BE TAXINg TIMES AHEAd FOR THE PASSENgER CARS MARKET, THE BudgET HELd OuT THE PROMISE FOR BETTER ROAd CONNECTIVITY ANd EASINg OF TRAFFIC WITH A WHOPPINg ALLOCATION OF INR 97,000 CRORE FOR ROAdS ANd HIgHWAYS.

uNAddReSSed INduStRY eXPeCtAtIONS

There were some changes expected to be announced in the Budget

but were missing. The industry was expecting a scrappage policy

announcement to address environmental pollution, but was

disappointed. There was also no indication of an anti-dumping policy

for the tyre sector against cheap imports from China, which has been

a sore point for some time now.

The NielseN View

Even though steps have been taken to improve infrastructure and public

transport, the overall focus of the Budget was to limit the sales of passenger

vehicles.

The 4% levy on SUVs would aggravate buyer apprehension as it did in

December, 2015, when the Supreme Court had banned sale of diesel vehicles

with engines of or bigger than 2,000 cc in the National Capital Region till

March 31, 2016.

The idea behind increasing taxes on luxury cars is to promote the use of

hybrid and electric vehicles, but there is limited availability and infrastructure

to support such cars. Hence, the desired impact may elude the government.

Passenger car manufacturers have already initiated the switch to costlier

Euro 6 norms, an advanced norm for limiting vehicle emissions and bring

down pollution, by 2020. Taxation, then, may dent sales as the upfront and

running costs of vehicles will both increase. People with low income or those

yet to graduate to a car would think twice before doing so and stick to two-

wheelers for now.

The Budget did not apply any tax burden on two-wheelers. Couple with a

resurgence in rural demand, this will, in all probability, lead to an increase in

two-wheeler sales.

While excise duty on petrol and diesel have been hiked by the central

government many times in the past year along with different state

governments levying increased VAT, there were no mentions of a reduction.

This will keep fuel prices at the same level as a year ago, despite the fact that

globally they have come down by 50%, further discouraging passenger vehicle

segment growth.

The investment in road connectivity is good news for both the passenger

vehicle segment and public transport, though the effects are long term and

won’t be seen immediately.

The disposable income unlocked by tax relief given to home loan-payers and

those who rent homes will lead to automobile sales. But again, this would

come into effect in the long term while limiting penalties such as taxes

would have an immediate effect. So, in the near term, the Budget will have a

negative impact on the sector but will usher in stable growth over a period of

time by improving purchasing capacity of a wider audience.


AbOuT NIELSEN Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance

management company that provides a comprehensive understanding

of what consumers watch and buy. Nielsen’s Watch segment provides

media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement

services for all devices on which content — video, audio and text

— is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods

manufacturers and retailers the industry’s only global view of retail

performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch

and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen also provides its

clients with analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P

500 company, has operations in over 100 countries, covering more

than 90% of the world’s population. For more information,

visit www.nielsen.com.

Soumendra Dutta, Sucheta Jha and Apeksha Jain contributed to this

report.

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