towards eu breakup ? three ideological dimensions and a case study
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Towards EU breakup ? three ideological dimensions and a case study. William Brett, presentation to AUGUR Rome meeting, 16-03-12. Starting points Theories of political realignment Populist extremism Three dimensions of ideology Case study: Greece Questions for the future. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Towards EU breakup?three ideological dimensions
and a case study
William Brett, presentation toAUGUR Rome meeting, 16-03-12
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
1. Starting points
2. Theories of political realignment
3. Populist extremism
4. Three dimensions of ideology
5. Case study: Greece
6. Questions for the future
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
• How might politics develop around the world?
• What are the pressure points where major political changes could originate?
• Under what circumstances could extremist parties come to power?
• How do these futures relate to the AUGUR scenarios?
Starting points
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Stumbling blocks• The contingency of political processes
- Different time, different place, different outcome- Causal mechanisms are always obscure owing to the open and highly
complex nature of political and economic systems
• The heterogeneity of political systems
- Different processes for democracies and autocracies (not applicable at EU level)- The level of analysis problem: Individuals? Parties? Countries? Regions?
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Extremist parties (partic. of the right) present a significant threat to the liberal democratic order
We know from the 1930s that times of global economic crisis create opportunities for political realignments to occur
But these opportunities can be seized by very different types of political actor
Narrowing the focus: populism and economic crisis
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Theories of political realignment• “Political realignment”: the fundamental restructuring of political
representation, through…a) the emergence of new parties or the disappearance of established partiesb) a significant and long-lasting shift in support from one party (or parties) to
another, and/or…c) the development of new social coalitions in support of particular parties
Explanatory frameworks• “Society-first” theoriesa) social cleavages (Lipset and Rokkan)b) modernisation/ postmaterialism and the “silent counter-revolution”
(Inglehart, Ignazi)• “Politics-first” theories: party competition, political articulation (eg. BJP in
India)
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
“… the danger of political polarization and extremism is greater in some national circumstances than others. It is greatest in countries with relatively recent histories of democracy, with existing right-wing extremist parties, and with electoral systems that create low hurdles to parliamentary representation of new parties. Above all, it is greatest where depressed economic conditions are allowed to persist.”
(de Bromhead et. al. 2012)
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Populist extremism: a core definitionAnti-establishment, anti-system, but not anti-democracy• Populism: a discourse rather than a term describing a party• The populist appeal is made on behalf of “the people”, in opposition to
a vilified “elite”• This appeal can be made from the left or the right, from a welfare
state or anti-welfare state position, from a nativist or internationalist perspective etc.
• In democracies, the populists that really matter claim to be democrats. Indeed, the appeal to the people is at its core (pseudo)-democratic. But different conceptions of “democracy” can be framed within the populist appeal. Existing democratic arrangements are not a given
• Populist extremism: those who use the populist appeal to attack the existing mainstream – “anti-system”
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Populist extremism today
1. European parties and movements• Neoliberal populists (FPO, List Pim Fortuyn)• Welfare chauvinists (Front National, Dansk Folkeparti)• Left-populists (Coalition of the Radical Left, Occupy)• Extremists/fascists (Golden Dawn, English Defence League)
2. USA• Tea Party Republicans• Occupy
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
BIG GOVERNMENT(welfare spending,public ownership, increased regulation)
SOCIALLY LIBERAL(pluralist tolerance)
INTERDEPENDENCE(pro-EU, pro regional/global decision-making structures)
SMALL GOVERNMENT(spending cuts, tax cuts, privatisation, deregulation)
SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE(support for traditional values)
SOVEREIGNTY(Anti-EU, support for the nation state)
Three dimensions of ideology
1. Economy
2. Values
3. International relations
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
BIG GOVERNMENT(wealth redistribution, NB: potential
for populist appeal, anti-1%)
SOCIALLY LIBERAL(respect for others, a modern sense
of pluralism)
INTERDEPENDENCE(globalisation, technological
progress)
SMALL GOVERNMENT(“government is out to get you”, tax as an unacceptable imposition, “welfare scroungers” etc.)
SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE(homophobia, chauvinism)
SOVEREIGNTY(nationalism, xenophobia)
Appeals to identity
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Data source: the Comparative Manifesto Project• Manifestos from the parties over 50 countries (not India) since 1945• Pros: large-N, longitudinal, malleable• Cons: suspect reliability, missing data
Codes for “socially liberal”• Eg. “anti-morality”
Codes for “socially conservative”• Eg. “pro-morality”
Codes for “big government”• Eg. “pro-welfare state”
Codes for “small government”• Eg. “anti-welfare state”
Codes for “sovereignty”• Eg. “anti-EU”
Codes for “interdependence”• Eg. “pro-EU”
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Interdependence Sovereignty
Big Government
Small Government
PS (France)
FN (France)
FPO (Austria)Many E. European parties in the 1990s
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Socially Liberal
Socially Conservative
Big Government
Small Government
DF (Denmark)
SVP (Swiss)
LPF (Dutch)
Greens (eg. Germany)
???
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Socially Liberal
Socially Conservative
Big Government
Small Government
Obama
RomneySantorum
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Interdependence Sovereignty
Big Government
Small Government
MAP COUNTRIES? REGIONS? SCENARIOS?
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Case study: Greece
• Parliamentary elections in April
• The present context: 20% unemployment, 50% youth unemployment etc.
• The future context: a decade of austerity?
• Public opinion: 87% “disappointed” with Papandreou government; 52% disagree with Parliament’s recent approval of austerity measures etc.; but 67% want to stay in the euro
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Party Ideology SupportAusterity measures
Coalition of the Radical Left Left 12.5% ANTIEcologists-Greens Left 4% ANTI
Communists Left 12.5% ANTI
Democratic Left Centre-left 10.5% ambivalent
Pasok Centre-left 13.5% PRO
New Democracy Centre-right 23% PROIndependent Greeks Centre-right 4% ANTI
Laos Right 4% ANTI
Golden Dawn Far Right 3.5% ANTI
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Interdependence Sovereignty
Big Government
Small Government
Coalition of the Radical Left
Communists
Democratic LeftPASOK
New DemocracyIndependent Greeks
LAOS
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Sovereignty
Socially Liberal Socially Conservative
Interdependence
Coalition of the Radical Left
CommunistsLAOS
Democratic Left
PASOKNew Democracy
Independent Greeks
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Volatility factors
• Mass discontent
• Baseline economic problems, particularly extended austerity (cf. de Bromhead et. al. 2012)
• Emergence of new parties, speed at which they are gaining enough support to cross representation threshold
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Stability factors
• Electoral system (“reinforced” proportional representation)
• Representation threshold (3%)
• Potential correction in PASOK support
• Disagreement among far left parties
Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR
AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012
Questions for the future
• What are the tipping points which could spark populist protest on a scale which threatens the continuation of the existing order and the power of existing elites?
• Which of the AUGUR scenarios, if any, accounts for this risk?
• Policy proposals? Or exhortations to parties (primarily of the centre-left)?
• What about the other scenarios? What are the political routes towards “federalism” and “multi-speed Europe”?