towards healthy public policy: assessing & mitigating health burden from air policy analysis for...
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Towards Healthy Public Policy:Assessing & Mitigating Health
Burden from Air
Policy Analysis for Air Quality and Health
Workshop at Metro Hall, Toronto – May 19, 2005
Monica Campbell
Environmental Protection Office
Toronto Public Health
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People can spend a lot of time close to pollution sources
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Presentation Overview
“Healthy Public Policy” Areas of activity Integration of assessment tools Policy questions of local
significance
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Healthy Public Policy
Fundamental concept in public healthParticularly relevant for environmental threats
to healthAdvocates for shifts in public policies that
adversely impact health (eg. transportation, energy, urban form)
Need good assessment tools
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Areas of Activity in Influencing Policies Related to Air
Exposure assessment and health risk
Risk communicationBroad determinants of health (e.g.
social aspects)
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Exposure Assessment & Health Risk
Local point sources of community concern
- St. John’s Crematorium (2000)
- Lakeview coal-fired power plant (2000)
Ambient air pollution
- Toronto Air-Pollution Burden of Illness
study (2004)
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St John’s Crematorium (Toronto)Method:
Stack testing to establish emission rates of PM10, heavy metals including mercury, dioxins & furans
Ambient air monitoring before & after crematorium started operations
Dispersion modelingComparison of modeled and actual ambient levelsBenchmarks:
- Ambient air quality criteria (OMOE)- Toxicological criteria (RfD & RsD from US EPA)
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St John’s Crematorium (Toronto)
Results and Conclusions:
Crematorium actual and modelled emissions were very low and far below provincial standards
Worst-case concentrations were at most 1% of AAQC and 25% of health criteria
Background levels of PM10 high and sometimes exceeded provincial standard but crematorium contribution very small
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Lakeview Coal-Fired Power Plant
Modelling study (2000) to estimate ambient concentrations of NOx and SO2 with different operating conditions
Lakeview (1997 base year operating at 19% capacity) found to contribute:
< 0.3% of ambient annual NOx in GTA;
< 9.2% of ambient annual SO2 in GTA.
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Annual Air Emissions from Lakeview Plant
1997 1998 Predicted ifCoal-Fired
Predicted ifGas-Fired
Operating Capacity 19% 28% 80% 80%
Electrical Generation(GW-h)
1,933 2,800 8,000 8,000
Sulphur Dioxide (tonnes) 13,420 18,820 45,600* 0*
Nitrogen Oxides (tonnes) 5,480 7,820 21,600* 2,000*
Mercury (kilograms) 48* 70 200* 0*
Carbon Dioxide(kilotonnes)
1,933* 2,800* 8,000* 2,800*
Annual Emissions, Emission Rates & Operating Capacity provided by Environment Canada;Full Capacity – 1,140 MW x 8760 hours = 9.9864 million MWh (*Estimates)
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Air Pollution Burden of Illness Study
Why Do One?
To estimate magnitude of health impact in cost-effective manner
To provide health status information on which to base public health programs
To communicate health riskTo influence decision makers
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What’s Involved in Conducting a BOI Study?
Is a form of risk assessmentApplies risk coefficients from existing
epidemiological studies worldwideUses community-specific data on daily
pollution levelsUses community-specific data on adverse
health outcomes such as hospitalizations and mortality (e.g. for respiratory and cardiac causes)
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Calculating Burden of Illness
Hp(outcomes/yr) = Hb x Fp
Where:
Hp =estimated air-pollution burden of illness
Hb =background rate of adverse health outcomes/year
Fp =fraction due to air pollution
(Fp= Hp/unit x P; where Hp/unit is the ‘risk coefficient’ per unit pollutant from published epidemiological studies, and P is the effective annual pollutant concentration)
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Air Pollution Burden of Illness - Toronto
1,700 premature deaths/year 6,000 hospitalizations/year Would likely not have occurred when they did
without exposure to air pollutionPreventable Increases severity or frequency of common
medical conditions and illnesses
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Impact of 2000 BOI Study
Gave rise to first Smog Summit in June 2000Catalyzed creation of 20/20 The Way to Clean
AirInitiated low-sulphur fuel purchases by CityGave rise to further research – Condition
Critical: Fixing our Smog Alert Warning SystemIncreased participation in policy discussionsFacilitated NGOs in advocating for clean air
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Risk Communication
Studies that influence communication
policies:Toronto Air Quality Index - Health Links
AnalysisCondition Critical: Fixing the Smog
Warning System Evaluation of smog advice
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The Air Quality Index (AQI)
AQI Scale Category
0 - 15
16 - 31
32 - 49
50 - 99
100+
Very Good
Good
Moderate
Poor
Very Poor
Smog Alert
At AQI = 50, OMOEcalls Air Quality Advisory
Incr
easi
ng
sev
erit
y o
f h
ealt
h e
ffec
ts
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Mixed Messages
Toronto’s air quality is “good” or “very good” almost all the time
Triggers smog alerts only in the summer months
Toronto’s air pollution leads to 1,000 premature deaths and 5,500 hospitalizations each year
Air pollution affects health year round
AQIHealth Evidence(based on 2000 study)
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Distribution in Health Outcomes by AQI Category
(based on 2000 study)
% of Health Outcomes
Health Outcome
Very Good Good Moderate Poor
PrematureDeaths
64 32 3 <1
RespiratoryHospitalizations
61 35 3 <1
CardiacHospitalizations
47 35 14 4
All Outcomes 58 34 7 1
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Why the AQI MisrepresentsHealth Risk
It did not include fine particulates (PM10/PM2.5)
It is based on out-of-date air quality standards
It is based on a single “driver” pollutant, not the total mix of AQI pollutants
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Days of “Poor” Air Quality in Toronto resulting from inclusion of PM2.5 in the AQI
7 810
3
5
9 4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1997 1998 1999 2000
Nu
mb
er
of
da
ys
PM2.5 not in AQI Additional days when PM2.5 included in AQI
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Evaluation of Smog AdvicePersonal exposure monitoring that compares ‘typical
day’ exposures to PM<1, PM2.5, VOCs and ozone levels among paired scenarios of individuals who did or did not follow smog alert advice
Tries to understand how much total daily exposures can be reduced by shifting individual behaviours
Collaboration among Chemical Engineering & Applied Chemistry at U of T, Health Canada, Environment Canada and Toronto Public Health
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Incorporating Broad Determinants of Health: Social Aspects
Air emissions and health status studies related to Ashbridges Bay Treatment Plant
Health Impact Assessment – Designated bus route
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Ashbridges Studies
Air emissions study modelled 17 key pollutants under 4 scenarios, including with full incineration and no incineration at sewage treatment plant
Health status study examined mortality, hospitalization and cancer rates in South Riverdale and Beaches community, in comparison to SES- matched communities
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Ashbridges StudiesOverall, the emissions profile improved over time
as incinerator use was phased out and with projected improvements for odour control (including fugitive emissions)
Both communities had higher mortality and hospitalization rates (overall) than their respective comparison communities
South Riverdale has been burdened with more illness and pollution sources than other communities, although it is not possible to suggest a causal relationship
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Ashbridges Studies
Policy recommendation arising:
That the OMOE considers the cumulative impact of emissions from any new or modified industrial facility on adjacent residential areas with elevated rates of illness or mortality prior to issuing a C of A
‘Cumulative’ currently means taking into account all emission sources from a facility
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TPH Perspective on Cumulative Impact
Total impact of
all emission sources
Impact of current
ambient air pollution
levels
Impact of modelled
new source contribution
= +
Cumulative impact is:
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Environmental Justice Aspects
Should consider integrating social dimensions such as environmental justice concepts when developing public policy
Environmental justice concepts can lead to an examination of spatial distribution of pollution sources and correlations with community characteristics such as income levels, minority status or ethnicity.
Can take into account that people of lower income are more likely to be exposed to air pollution and likely more susceptible to adverse effects from air pollution
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Health Impact Assessment
Methodology may be quantitative but typically includes a qualitative assessment of social aspects
HIA results supported introduction of congestion charges (“toll roads) in London, England
Toronto Public Health is completing a pilot HIA on the designated bus route planned to connect subway users to York University
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Rapid Bus Route Pilot Health Impact Assessment
Vehicle pollutionStress (commuting; driving)Equity issues (who benefits)Commute timeAccident rates
Outcomes Examined
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Integration of Assessment Tools
Policy Options
Air Emissions
Health Burden
Ambient Levels
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How to Deal with Different Health Outcomes?
Premature mortality (acute)177
Cardiovascular hospitalization421
Respiratory hospitalizations597
Adult chronic bronchitis 1,186
Emergency room visits 5,981
Bronchitis in children
11,997
Asthma symptom days 71,930
Pyramid of Health Effects Toronto Annual Estimates for Inhalable Particulates (PM10)
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Some Policy Questions of Local Significance
How does health burden shift if:
Network of surface designated transit lanes introduced? Road congestion pricing is introduced? Bicycle network is created that reduces space for cars? Older vehicles are required to be retrofit or retired? Zoning is changed to reduce urban sprawl? Existing point sources are required to meet health-based air
quality standards? Comprehensive energy conservation plan is implemented? Coal-fired power plants are replaced with natural gas?
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For More Information
Visit our Healthy People Healthy Environment home page at:
www.toronto.ca/health/hphe