towards national reporting on land use change...

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Towards national reporting on agricultural land use change in Australia

Jodie Mewett, Justyna Paplinska, Georgina Kelley, Rob Lesslie, Phil Pritchard and Christine Atyeo

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural

and Resource Economics and Sciences

Technical Report 13.06 October 2013

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© Commonwealth of Australia Ownership of intellectual property rights Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia (referred to as the Commonwealth). Creative Commons licence All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms.

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en. The full licence terms are available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: Mewett J, Paplinska J, Kelley G, Lesslie R, Pritchard P and Atyeo C 2013, Towards national reporting on agricultural land use change in Australia, ABARES technical report, Canberra, October. CC BY 3.0. Cataloguing data Mewett J, Paplinska J, Kelley G, Lesslie R, Pritchard P and Atyeo C 2013, Towards national reporting on agricultural land use change in Australia, ABARES technical report, Canberra, October.

ISBN: 978‐1‐74323‐150‐0

ISSN: 189‐3128 ABARES project:43089 Internet Report title is available at: daff.gov.au/abares/publications. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010| Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001 Email [email protected] Web daff.gov.au/abares Inquiries regarding the licence and any use of this document should be sent to: [email protected]. The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

Acknowledgements

TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeIanMullen,KevinBurns,RobertSmart,MicheleBarson,DavidCunninghamandKimRitmanfortheirvaluablecommentsonadraftofthisreport.FundingfortheprojectwasprovidedbytheDepartment'sSustainableResourceManagementDivisionandABARES.

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Contents

Summary................................................................................................................................................................1

1 Introduction‐whyisagriculturallandusechangeimportant?.........................................4

2 Sourcesoflanduseinformation......................................................................................................6

Datasources.............................................................................................................................................6 Datainconsistencies..............................................................................................................................7

3 AgriculturallanduseinAustralia...................................................................................................9

Howmuchlandisusedforagriculture?.......................................................................................9

4 Isagriculturallandusechanging:anationalperspective?...............................................11

5 Howarefarmbusinesseschanging?...........................................................................................13

6 Isagriculturallandusechanging:aregionalperspective?...............................................14

Howhasgrazingchanged?..............................................................................................................14 Howhascroppingchanged?...........................................................................................................14 Howhaveotherlanduseschanged?...........................................................................................19

7 Otherpressuresonagriculturallanduse.................................................................................21

Miningandextractiveindustries..................................................................................................21 Peri‐urbangrowth..............................................................................................................................23

Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................................25

References..........................................................................................................................................................26

Tables

Table1Changeinthepercentageofeachstateandterritoryoccupiedbyselectedlandusesbetween1992‐93and2005‐06..........................................................................................12

Table2NumberoffarmholdingsinAustralia,1997‐98and2010‐11...................................13

Table3Changeinplantationforestareainarea,2000to2012................................................20

Table4Valueofagriculturalcommoditiesproduced(VCAP)instatecapitalcitystatisticaldivisionsandtheareaofagriculturalholdings.................................................23

Table5HorticultureasproportionofVACPforcapitalcitystatisticaldivisionsandstates.....................................................................................................................................................................23

Figures

Figure1ProportionofmajorlandusesinAustralia(2005‐06)................................................10

Figure2AreaoflandusedforagricultureinAustralia,1992‐93to2010‐11......................11

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Figure3Changeinareaofselectedlandusesbetween1992‐93and2005‐06basedonABARESnationalscalelandusemap..........................................................................................12

Figure4Changeinpopulationsize,areaofagriculturalholdingsandthenumberofagriculturalbusinessesbetween2009‐10and2010‐11inselectedstatecapitalcitystatisticaldivisions.............................................................................................................................24

Maps

MapS1Changeintheareausedforgrazingbetween1992‐93and2005‐06........................2

MapS2Changeintheareausedforcroppingbetween1992‐93and2005‐06.....................2

Map1ABARESnationalscalelandusemap(2005‐06)....................................................................9

Map2Changeintheareausedforgrazingbetween1992‐93and2005‐06........................15

Map3Changeintheareausedforcroppingbetween1992‐93and2005‐06.....................16

Map4Changeintheproductionofcanolabetween1985‐86and2005‐06.........................17

Map5Changeintheproductionofcottonbetween1985‐86and2005‐06.........................18

Map6Changeintheareaofformalnatureconservationbetween1992‐93and2005‐06.....................................................................................................................................................................19

Map7CoalbasinsunderexplorationandthevalueofagriculturalproductionbySLA2010‐11...................................................................................................................................................22

Boxes

Box1Describinglandusechange..............................................................................................................4

Box2Coalseamgas(CSG)..........................................................................................................................22

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Summary Landusedescribesthepurposesassignedtoland.Itreferstothepurposeforwhichthelandiscommitted.Itisfundamentaltounderstandinglandscapes,agriculturalproductionandthemanagementofnaturalresources.Landusecanincludetheproductionofgoods(suchascrops,timberandmanufactures)andservices(suchasdefence,recreations,biodiversityandnaturalresourcesprotection).Italsoincludesurbanandruralsettlement.Landusechoiceshaveamajoreffectonfoodproduction,thenaturalenvironmentandcommunities.

LandusechangeiscentraltomuchcurrentdebateinAustraliaaroundagricultureandfoodandfibresecurity,forestry,watermanagement,mining,climatechangemitigationandadaptation,population,urbanexpansion,biodiversityprotection,communitydevelopmentandlandscapeaesthetics.

Thisreportprovidesthelatestavailableinformationonnationallanduseandlandusechange.ItdrawsheavilyontheABAREStimeseriesofnationalscalelandusemapsandAustralianBureauofStatistics(ABS)agriculturalstatisticsasthesearethemostreliableandconsistentforreportingonlandusechangeatthenationallevel.ThestrengthoftheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsisthattheycombineABSagriculturalstatisticswithotherlanduseinformationintoonecompletespatialdatasetforAustralia.

Thebroadtrendsinagriculturallandusechangeareasfollows:

AgricultureremainsAustralia'sdominantlanduse,coveringaround456millionhectares(ha)or59percentofthecontinentin2005‐06,adecreaseofaround18.8millionha(4percentoftheagriculturalarea)since1992‐93.

Themostcommonagriculturallandusebyareaisgrazingonnativevegetationandmodifiedpastureswhichoccupies428millionhaoraround56percentofAustraliaandoccursmostlyinthearidandsemi‐aridregionsofinlandAustralia.

Theareaofgrazingdecreasedby6percentbetween1992‐93and2005‐06.Overthesameperiod,theareaoflandusedforcroppingincreasedby39percentto27millionha(3.5percentofAustralia’slandarea).Thesechangesvaryacrossthecountry,seeMapsS1andS2.

In2005‐06,areasofminimaluse,natureconservationandotherprotectedareasincludingIndigenoususesoccupiedaround282millionhectaresor37percentofAustralia.BasedontheCollaborativeAustralianProtectedAreaDatabase(CAPAD),between1992‐93and2005‐06,theareaofformalnatureconservationincreasedby15millionha(37percent).Insomeregions,decreasesintheareaoflandusedforgrazingareassociatedwithincreasesintheareaoflandusedforcroppingandnatureconservationalthoughlocationswheredirectconversionsfromonelandusetoanotherhaveoccurredcannotbeidentifiedfromthenational‐scaledatareviewedinthisreport.

Thenumberoffarmbusinessesdecreasedfrom144860in1997‐98to135447in2010‐11.However,decreasesbyfarmsizewereonlyreflectedinthemedium(50to2500ha)category.Thenumberoflargefarms(greaterthan2500ha)andsmallfarms(lessthan50ha)bothincreasedbetween1997‐98and2010‐11.Changesinfarmsizecanarisefromarangeoffactorsincludingpressurestoincreaseeconomicproductivityandefficiencyaswellassub‐divisionforperi‐urbanlifestyleblocksorformoreintensiveproduction.

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Map S1 Change in the area used for grazing between 1992‐93 and 2005‐06

Data source: ABARES national scale land use maps (BRS 2006; ABARE‐BRS 2010).

Map S2 Change in the area used for cropping between 1992‐93 and 2005‐06


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Whilethegrowthinperi‐urbanareas(thosethatlieonthefringeofthemajorbuilt‐upareasofcities)cancompetewithagriculturallandandthelossofagriculturallandtourbangrowthisimportant,thesechangesdonotnecessarilytranslateintoadecreaseinthevalueofagriculturalproduction.TheMelbourneStatisticalDivision,forexample,hadonly2percentofthetotalareaofVictoria'sagriculturalholdingsin2010‐11,butthisareaproduced13.4percent($1.2billion)oftheState’sagriculturalcommoditiesbyvalue.Miningisalsoexpandingintoagriculturallandsandsomenewcoalseamgasdevelopmentsoccurinareasofhighvalueagriculturalactivity.

Whilethenationalpicturesuggestsrelativelymodestchangesinareaforkeylanduses(grazing,croppingandnatureconservation)overtheperiod1992‐93to2005‐06,regionallandusechangepatternscanvarysignificantlyfromnationaltrends.Overthelongertermtheimpactsofincreasedclimatevariabilityandpopulationpressuremaystronglyimpactthelocationofagriculturalandnon‐agriculturalactivities.Changesinthelocationoftraditionalagriculturalactivities(grazingandcropping)arealreadyemerging.

Australiaisimprovingitscapacitytotracklandusechange,drawingoninformationsourcesincludingsatelliteremotesensingandstatisticalcollections.Thenextnationalscalelandusemap,basedon2010‐11agriculturalcensusinformation,isdueforreleasebyABARESlatein2013andwillprovidetheopportunitytoanalysechangeacrossthecountryforanumberofkeylanduses(grazing,croppingandconservation)from1992‐93to2010‐11.Itwillalsobepossibletoanalysechangeforawiderrangeoflandusesbetween2005‐06and2010‐11.ThisisbeingdevelopedbytheAustralianCollaborativeLandUseandManagementProgram(ACLUMP),aconsortiumofnationalandstateagenciescoordinatedbyABARES.

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1 Introduction ‐ why is agricultural land use change important?

Landusedescribesthepurposeassignedtoland.Itreferstothepurposewhichthelandiscommitted,includingtheproductionofgoods(suchascrops,timberandmanufactures)andservices(suchasdefence,recreations,biodiversityandnaturalresourcesprotection)(ACLUMP2010).Thewaythatlandisusedhasprofoundeffectsoneconomic,socialandenvironmentalsystems.Landusechangearisingfromintensification,diversificationandinnovation(Box1)providesincreasedeconomicreturnstofarmers,improvedproductivityandoutcomesthathaveimplicationsfornaturalresourcessuchassoil,waterandbiodiversity.Informationaboutthearealextentoflanduseandlandusechangeisthereforecentraltodecision‐makinginAustraliaaroundissuessuchasfoodandfibresecurity,watermanagement,mining(includingcoalseamgasextraction),biodiversityprotection,climatechangemitigationandadaptation,urbangrowthandcommunitydevelopment.

Box 1 Describing land use change

Commonconceptsandapproachestocharacterisinglandusechange(Lesslieetal.2011)are:

•Area—thespatialextentoflanduse.Thisisabasicexpressionofthestatusofalanduse,usuallymeasuredinhectaresorsquarekilometres.

•Productivity—theefficiencywithwhichlanduseinputsareconvertedintooutputs.

•Intensification—thedegreeofconcentrationoflanduseinputsandoutputs.

•Innovation—improvementintheapproachtakentoachievealanduseoutcome.Innovationusuallyoccursthroughchangesinlandmanagementpractice.

Conceptsrelevanttotrackingaspectsoflandusechangeoverspaceandtime(Lesslieetal.2011)include:

•Spatiallocation—positioninspace.Spatiallocationdescribeswherealanduseisphysicallylocatedusinggeospatialcoordinates.

•Trend—persistenceinaconditionovertime.Trendisoftenrepresentedasunidirectionalchangeagainstabaselineperiodorpointintime.

•Dynamics—ratesofchangeandperiodicity.Thismayrevealimportanttrendsinlanduseandlandmanagementnotevidentinexpressionsofsimpleareachangeortransformations.Successfulanalysisoflandusedynamicsrequiresconsistent,highquality,time‐seriesdata.

•Prediction—forecastingspatialortemporalpatternsofchange.Modelsareusedtoreplicatethepastandtopredict.

Examplesoflanduseanalysisbasedonproductivity,intensificationandinnovationarepresentedinLesslieetal.2011.

Researchers,policymakersandlandmanagersneedaccurateandtimelyinformationonlandusechangetohelpanalyseitsimpactsandmanageitsconsequences.Abetterunderstandingofagriculturallandusechangeiscentraltoaninformedanalysisofthefutureofagricultural

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productionandagriculturallandmanagementinAustralia.Atanationallevel,theevidencesuggeststhatchangeintheareaoflandusedforagriculturefrom1992‐93to2005‐06wasmodest(ABARES2011a;ABS2011a).Attheregionallevel,however,theeffectsofchangemaybefarmoresignificant,particularlyinareaswithhighgrowthratesofurbandevelopment.Thepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonagriculturemayalsoaffectlanduseinthefuture(ABARES2011b).

ThistechnicalreportbuildsontheABARESScienceandEconomicsInsightsReportLandscapesintransition:trackinglandusechangeinAustralia(Lesslieetal.2011)inscopingourcapacitytoconsistentlyreportonlandusechangeatthenationallevelusingcurrentlyavailablenationaldatasets.ItoutlinesthecurrentextentofagriculturallanduseinAustralia,anddescribeshowagriculturallanduseischanging.Ithighlightsthedynamicnatureofagriculturallanduseandthepressuresforchangefromalternativelanduses.Changesinsomelanduses,suchasgrazing,cropping,natureconservationandplantationforestryaswellaschangesinperi‐urbanenvironments,arealsodiscussed.

Challengestothereportingoflandusechangeincludetheavailabilityofaccurateandtimelylandusechangeinformation,particularlyvariabilityinthespatialandtemporalscaleofsourceinformation.Changesindatacollectionmethodscanalsoaffectthereliabilityoflandusechangeestimates.ThisreporthighlightshowdifferentdatasourcescanbeusedtopaintapictureoflandusechangeinAustralia.Italsoidentifiessomeofthefactorstobeawareofwhencomparinglanduseinformationfromdifferentsources.

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2 Sources of land use information KeysourcesoflanduseinformationforAustraliaincludenationallycoordinatedcatchmentscalelandusemaps,ABARESnationalscalelandusemaps,theAustralianBureauofStatistics(ABS)agriculturalstatistics,ABARESfarmsurveys,industryreportsandsurveysandforestrydataincludedintheNationalForestInventory.

DatasourcesCatchmentscalelandusemappingisproducedusinglandtenureandothertypesoflandusedata,fine‐scalesatellitedataandinformationcollectedinthefield.Theoperationalscaleofcatchmentscalelandusemappingvariesaccordingtotheintensityofland‐useactivitiesandlandscapecontext.Mappingrangesfromfinescale(1:10000to1:25000)forirrigatedandperi‐urbanareastocoarserscalesforcroppingregions(1:100000)andforthesemi‐aridandaridpastoralzone(1:250000).Catchmentscalemappingiscommonlyusedtohelpaddressnaturalresourcemanagementissuesaffectingsoils,waterandvegetation(ABARES2011a).Thismappingisgenerallyproducedbystateandterritorygovernmentswithinvolvementfromnaturalresourcemanagementbodies.

NationalscalelandusemappingisproducedbyABARESusingcoarse‐scalesatellitedata(pixelsizeof1.1squarekilometres),ABSagriculturalstatisticsandgroundcontrolpointdatafortheagriculturallandusesandvariousotherdigitalmaps,includingthefinerresolutioncatchmentscalelandusedata,forthenon‐agriculturallanduses.ABARESnationalscalelandusemapsareusedforbroad‐scalelanduseassessmentsandforstrategicplanningandevaluation(ABARES2011a).Themostcurrentmapisfor2005‐06andthenextmap(2010‐11)iscurrentlyinproductionanddueforreleaseinlate2013.

TheABSAgriculturalCensusisafive‐yearlycensusofallagriculturalbusinesseswithanestimatedvalueofagriculturaloperations(EVAO)inexcessof$5000(ABS2012a).TheAgriculturalCensuscollectsareaandproductiondataaswellasdataoninputs(i.e.waterandfertilisers)forawiderangeofagriculturalcommodities.Incertainyearssomelandmanagementandotherenvironmentaldataarealsocollected.Datafromthecensusareusedtoprovidestatisticstoprimaryproducers,industryorganisationsandsuppliers,otheragriculturalserviceandsupportindustriesandthenationalandstategovernments.Asstatedabove,dataarealsousedtoinformtheABARESnationalscalelandusemaps.IntheyearswhenthecensusisnotundertakentheABSconductsanAgriculturalSurveywhichsamplesapproximately20percentofallagriculturalbusinesseswithanEVAOinexcessof$5000.Nationalestimatesofproductionandareadataarecalculatedfromthissample(ABS2012a).

ABARESfarmsurveys(theAustralianAgriculturalandGrazingIndustriesSurvey‐AAGIS;andAustralianDairyIndustrySurvey‐ADIS)samplearound1600broadacrebusinessesandaround300dairybusinesses.Thesurveyscollectdetailedfinancial,physicalandsocioeconomicinformationtoprovideprofilesandforecastsofthefinancialperformanceoffarmbusinessesinthegrains,livestockanddairyindustries.Therelativelysmallsamplesizesofthesesurveyslimittheuseofthesedatafordetailedspatialanalysis.However,areainformationforkeycommodities,intheformofthepastandforecastnationalarealextent,isreportedinthequarterlyAgriculturalCommoditiesreport(ABARES2011c).

Industryreportsandsurveysalsoexistforkeyagriculturalindustrybodies.Thesegenerallyidentifynumbersofregisteredbusinesseswithinanindustryandaveragefarmsize,orsurveyandreportonbestpractices.Thisinformationissometimescollectedinconjunctionwithland

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usedata.Forexample,theGrainsResearchandDevelopmentCorporation(GRDC)carriedoutafarmpracticessurveyof1300graingrowingbusinessesin2011whichincludedacollectionoflanduseinformationtoexaminehowwellfarmerswerematchinglandcapabilitytolanduse(Edwardsetal.2012).Thegenerallysmallsamplesizesofindustrybodysurveyslimittheuseofthedatainanalysisofchangeatthenationalscale.

NationalforestdataarecollectedbyallstateandterritoryagenciesandarestandardisedandcollatedintotheNationalForestInventory(NFI)anditsconstituentNationalPlantationInventory(NPI)byABARES(ABARES2012).Thesedatacanbeusedtocalculate,amongstotherthings,thelocationandextentofnativeandplantationforestinAustralia.NationalforestisallocatedtooneofsixNFI‐recognisedlandtenurecategories(multiple‐usepublicforests,natureconservationreserves,forestson‘otherCrownland’,privateforests,leaseholdforestandunresolvedtenure).Theareaofnativeforestsisbasedonacoverassessmentthatdoesnottakeintoaccountuse(e.g.woodproduction,conservation,grazing,etc).Woodproductiongenerallyoccursinmultiple‐usepublicforestsandprivateforestscategories.TheNFIincludestheareaofforestplantationswhichiscollated(fromstateandterritoryagenciesandprivatecompanies)undertheNationalPlantationInventory(NPI)(Gavran2013).TheNPIincludesareasofnativespeciesandareasofexoticspecies,butonlyincludescommercialplantations.

DatainconsistenciesInconsistenciesevidentindatafromdifferentdatasourcespresentachallengetolandusechangeassessment.Thesegenerallyresultfromdifferentgeographicortemporalscales,samplingframes,measurementmethodsand/ordefinitions.Eachinformationsourcehasdifferentstrengthsandweaknesses.Carefulthoughtmustbegiventotheoriginalintentions,comparabilityandplanneduseofdatasourceswhenconsideringthemtoinformanalysisandreporting.

Forexample,therearedifferencesintheareaofagriculturallandasreportedbytheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsandtheABSagriculturalstatistics.TheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsreportedthattheareaofagriculturallanduseswas61percentofthetotalareaofAustraliain2000‐01and59percentin2005‐06(ABARES2011a).TheABSreportedtheareaofagriculturalholdingsas59percentin2000‐01and57percentin2005‐06(ABS2002andABS2008).Thisisduetothedifferentsamplingframesandmethodologiesusedtodeterminetheareaofagriculture.TheABARESnationalscalelandusedatasetisconstructedbyintegratingdatafromavarietyofsourcesasalreadydiscussed.TheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsdefineagriculturallandasthatusedforgrazing,croppingandhorticulturallanduses.TheagriculturallandfigurespublishedbytheABSarebasedonagriculturalcensusorsurveywhichareself‐reportedbytherespondentsandinclude;thetotalareaofagriculturalholdings,abreakdownofthisintoareasforkeyon‐farmlanduses(suchasgrazing,cropping,farminfrastructure,forestryandconservation),andavarietyofmoredetailedinformation(suchasareaandproductionfiguresforawiderangeofcommoditiesandcommoditygroups).Notallagriculturalbusinessescompletethesesurveys,onlythosewithanestimatedvalueofoperationsof$5,000ormore.Therefore,smallerpropertiessuchashobbyfarmsmaynotbeincluded.

TheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsandABSagriculturalstatisticsarefitfordifferentpurposes.TheABSagriculturalstatisticsarebestusedwhenanalysingchangeforparticularcommoditiesovertime(providedtheyhavebeenconsistentlycollected).TheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsarebestusedwhenreportingongroupingsofagriculturalcommodities(suchascroppingorhorticulture)orlandusesthatarenotcollectedregularlybytheABS(suchasgrazingandnatureconservation).ThestrengthoftheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsis

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thattheycombineABSagriculturalstatisticswithotherlanduseinformationintoonecompletespatialdatasetforAustralia.

TherearealsodifferencesintheareaofforestasreportedbytheNFIandABARESnationalscalelandusemaps.FortheABARESnationalscalelandusemap,mostoftheforestsreportedundertheNFIareallocatedtolandusecategoriesbasedonprimeusethatdonotseparatelyidentifytheforestscomponent.MuchofAustralia’snativeforestsandwoodlandsarethereforeallocatedtootherclassessuchasconservationandgrazingastimberproductionisnottheprimeuse.Productionforestsareseparatelyidentifiedwherethepredominantuseofnativeforestsistimberproductionforsawlogs,pulpwoodandothernon‐woodproducts.PlantationforestsfortheABARESnationalscalelandusemaparesourcedfromacombinationoftheNFIplantationsandareasreportedasplantationforestryinthecatchmentscalelandusemaps.Thecatchmentscalelandusemapsvarytemporallyacrossthecountryandsomayincludeareasthathavebeenconvertedtoplantationsorfromplantationstoanotheruse.PlantationforestsfortheABARESnationalscalelandusemapincludelandonwhichplantationtreesandshrubs(nativeorexotic)havebeenestablishedforproduction,orenvironmentalandresourceprotectionpurposes,includingfarmforestry,exceptwheretheplantedtreesaregrowninconjunctionwithpasture,fodderorcropproduction.PlantationforestsintheNPIincludeplantationtreesbutnotshrubs,andonlyincludecommercialplantationsgrownforwoodproductionandnotenvironmentalplantingsorsmall‐scalefarmforestry.TheimportantdifferencetonotebetweentheNFIandtheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsisthattheNFImapsforestsintermsoftreecoverwhiletheABARESnationallandusemapallocatesforeststotheirprimarylanduse.

ThisreportprovidesagriculturallandusechangeanalysisforAustraliausingthemostcurrentnationallyconsistentlanduseinformationsources.ItdrawsheavilyontheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsandABSagriculturalstatistics.Whereapplicable,thisreportanalysesandexplainsspecificinstanceswheredifferentinformationsourcesappeartoconflict.

Catchmentscalelandusemaps,whileveryhighresolution,differincurrencyacrossthecountryandarethereforenotsuitablefornation‐wideanalysisatthistime.Atitsannualmeetingin2013,TheAustralianCollaborativeLandUseandManagementProgram(ACLUMP),aconsortiumofnationalandstateagenciescoordinatedbyABARES,investigatedmethodstoimprovethetemporalconsistencyofhighresolutioncatchmentscalelandusemappinginAustralia.Thiswouldresultinmoreup‐to‐datecatchmentscalelandusemapsforAustraliaandalsoincreasethepotentialtoreportonlandusechangeaspartofthemappingprocess.InformationdeliveredthroughACLUMPinformslanduseplanningandcaninformthedevelopmentofresponsestoissuessuchasurbanexpansion,sustainableresourcemanagement,andclimatechangeadaptationandmitigation.ThismayalsocontributetonationalinitiativessuchastheNationalUrbanPolicy(AustralianGovernment2011)andtheMultipleLandUseFrameworkforthemineralandenergyresourcesector(SCER2012)forthemineralsandenergyresourcesectorandtorelevantstateandregionallanduseplanningandpolicyinitiatives.FurtherinformationonACLUMPproductsisavailableatwww.daff.gov.au/abares/aclump.

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3 Agricultural land use in Australia In2011‐12Australianagriculturallanduseswereworth$42.6billioninproduction.Inthesameyearagricultureandforestry(includingsupportservices)employedaround478000people(ABS2013).Agriculturallandusesalsoprovidedarangeofbenefitsforbiodiversity,soilandwatermanagement,overandabovetheirvalueforfoodproduction.

Howmuchlandisusedforagriculture?Map 1 ABARES national scale land use map (2005‐06)

Note: This 2005–06 land use map for Australia is the latest in a series produced since 1992–93. Seven national land use

maps are available, for the years 1992–93, 1993–94, 1996–97, 1998–99, 2000–01, 2001–02 and 2005–06. The 2010‐11 map

is in prep.

Data source: ABARES national scale land use map (ABARE‐BRS 2010).

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ThetotalareaoflandusedforagricultureinAustraliain2005‐06wasalmost456millionhaorabout59percentofthecontinent(ABARE‐BRS2010).Livestockgrazingonnaturalvegetationandmodifiedpasturesisthemostwidespreadactivity,accountingfor429millionhaor55.8percentofAustralia(Map1;Figure1).Muchofthisoccursinthearidandsemi‐aridregionsofAustralia.Otheragriculturalusesoccupyamuchsmallerportionofthecontinent,including:cropping(27millionhaor3.5percentofAustralia)andhorticulture(0.5millionhaorlessthan0.1percent)(Figure1).

In2005‐06intensivelanduses,aclasswhichincludesintensiveplantproduction(e.g.glasshousesandnurseries)andanimalproduction,manufacturing,residential,services,utilities,transportation,miningandwaste,occupiedarelativelysmallproportionofthecontinent(3millionhaor0.4percent;Figure1),mainlycentredaroundthecapitalcities(ABARE‐BRS2010).

Approximately283millionha(36.7percent)ofAustraliawasusedforconservationandnaturalenvironments.Thiswasmadeupofformalnatureconservationwhichoccupied7.4percentofAustralia,otherprotected(includingIndigenous)landswhichoccupiedaround13percentandminimaluse(othernaturalareaswithminimalproductionuse)whichoccupiedafurther16percent(ABARE‐BRS2010).

In2005‐06,accordingtotheABARESnationalscalelandusemap,productionforestry(commercialproductionfromnativeforestsonpublicandprivateland)used11.4millionha(1.5percentofAustralia)andplantationforestry(includingenvironmentalandotherplantings)used2.3millionha(0.3percent)(ABARE‐BRS2010).

Figure 1 Proportion of major land uses in Australia (2005‐06)

Note: These statistics are drawn from national scale land use mapping produced by ABARES through the Australian

Collaborative Land Use and Management Program (ACLUMP).

Data source: ABARES national scale land use map ABARE‐BRS 2010.

Grazing (55.8%)

Conservation and natural environments (36.7%)

Cropping (3.5%)

Forestry (1.8%)

Water (1.6%)

Intensive uses (0.4)

Horticulture (0.1%)

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4 Is agricultural land use changing: a national perspective?

Overall,thetotalareaofagricultureinAustraliahasdecreasedovertime,thoughtherateofchangeismodest(Figure2).BasedontheABARESnationalscalelandusemaps,theareaofagriculturallandusesdecreased4percentbetween1992‐93and2005‐06(relativetothe1992‐93area),withthemajorityofthisdecreaseoccurringsince2001‐02.BasedontheABSagriculturalstatisticsthetotalareaofagriculturalholdingsalsoshowadownwardtrend,withtheareaofholdingsdecreasingby5percentbetween1992‐93and2005‐06and11percentbetween1992‐93and2010‐11.

Figure 2 Area of land used for agriculture in Australia, 1992‐93 to 2010‐11

Note:* Agricultural survey rather than agricultural census, survey years are subject to greater sampling errors than census

years. The years given correspond to financial year endings i.e. 1992 corresponds to 1991‐92.

Data source: ABARES 2011a; ABS 2012a, 2011a, 2008, 2003, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1995 and 1994.

Themajorityofthedecreaseinagriculturallandareabetween1992‐93and2005‐06evidentfromtheABARESnationalscalelandusemapsisassociatedwitha6percentdecreaseintheareaoflivestockgrazing(relativetothe1992‐93area)(Figure3).Althoughthepercentagedecreasewasmodest,inabsolutetermsthedecreasewas26millionha.Duringthesametimeperiodtheareaofcroppingincreasedby7millionha(39percent)andtheareaofformalnatureconservation(asubsetofconservationandnaturalenvironmentsbasedonchangesrecordedthroughtheCollaborativeAustralianProtectedAreaDatabase(CAPAD))increasedby15millionha(37percent).Inabsolutetermstheincreaseinareaofformalnatureconservationwasmorethandoublethatofcropping(Figure3).ItisdifficulttoreportchangeinthesemajorlandusecategoriesusingtheABSagriculturalstatisticsastheyareeithernotcollected(inthecaseofconservationareasonpublicland)orinconsistentlycollected(forgrazing,sownpastureshaveregularlybeencollectedbutnativepastureshavenot).

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2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Percentage

area

Agricultural land use as percentage of Australia (as mapped in ABARES national land use time series)

Area of agricultural businesses as percentage of Australia (as reported by ABS agricultural statistics)

410 million hectares

460 million hectares

474 million hectares 456 million hectares

** * ** * ** * **

ABARES

12

Figure 3 Change in area of selected land uses between 1992‐93 and 2005‐06 based on ABARES national scale land use map

Note:* Agricultural survey rather than agricultural census.

Data source: BRS 2006; ABARE‐BRS 2010. Data for nature conservation (comprising strict nature reserves, wilderness areas,

national parks, natural feature protection, habitat/ species management areas and protected landscapes) derived from

ABARES national land use map layers based using CAPAD.

Changesingrazing,croppingandnatureconservationvariesatthestateandterritorylevel(Table1).Between1992‐93and2005‐06theareaofgrazingdecreasedinfiveofthestatesandterritories.ThelargestdecreaseintheareaofgrazingwasinVictoriawhereasthelargestincreaseoccurredinTasmania.TheareaofcroppingincreasedinallstatesandterritoriesexceptQueenslandandtheNorthernTerritorywheretherewasnochange.TheareaofnatureconservationincreasedinallstatesandterritorieswiththelargestincreasesinTasmaniaandSouthAustralia.

Table 1 Change in the percentage of each state and territory occupied by selected land uses between 1992‐93 and 2005‐06

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT

Grazing ‐6.0 ‐12.3 0.3 ‐4.8 ‐3.6 2.8 ‐4.2

Cropping 3.5 7.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.0

Nature Conservation 2.2 1.2 2.1 4.8 0.7 5.1 1.6

Note: The percentage change was calculated as the difference between the area of the state occupied by each land use in

2005‐06 and 1992‐93

Data source: BRS 2006; ABARE‐BRS 2010. Data for nature conservation (comprising strict nature reserves, wilderness areas,

national parks, natural feature protection, habitat/ species management areas and protected landscapes) derived from

ABARES national land use map layers based using CAPAD.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

10

20

30

40

50

601992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Area of grazing (000

000

ha)

Area of cropping and conservation uses (000 000 ha)

Nature conservation (CAPAD) Cropping Grazing (right axis)

*** *** * *

ABARES

13

5 How are farm businesses changing? In2010‐11,theABSestimatedtherewere135447farmbusinessesinAustralia,areductionalmost6.5percentfrom1997‐98(Table2).Thistrendwasnotreflectedacrossfarmsizeclasses(Table2).

Changesinfarmsizecanarisefromarangeoffactorsincludingpressurestoincreaseeconomicproductivityandefficiencyaswellassub‐divisionforperi‐urbanlifestyleblocksorformoreintensiveproduction.Farmsmaybecomebiggerwhentheyareamalgamatedtoimprovetheirfinancialviability‐largerfarmstendtobemoreproductiveandmoreprofitable,andarebetterabletobenefitfromchangesinproductiontechnology(Shengetal.2011).Between1997‐98and2010‐11thenumberofpropertiesgreaterthan2500hainareaincreasedby0.9percent.Alternatively,farmsmaybecomesmallerwhentheyaresubdividedwithmoreintensifiedoperationsinresponsetoincreasinglandvalue.Between1997‐98and2010‐11thenumberofpropertieslessthan50hainareaincreasedby11.7percent.Farmsbetween50and2500hadeclinedfrom101112propertiesin1997‐98to88048propertiesin2010‐11,adecreaseof12.9percent(Table2).

Table 2 Number of farm holdings in Australia, 1997‐98 and 2010‐11

Number of holdings Per cent change Farm size (ha) 1997‐98 2010‐11 1998 to 2011

50 ha and below 30 043 33 571 11.7 50 to 2 500 ha 101 112 88 048 ‐12.9

Greater than 2 500 ha 13 705 13 828 0.9 Total 144 860 135 447 ‐6.5

Data source: ABS 1999; ABS 2012a.

Currently,foreignownershipofagriculturalbusinesses,agriculturallandandwaterentitlementsisquitelow.AnABSsurveyinDecember2010foundthat:

99percentofagriculturalbusinessesinAustraliawereentirelyAustralianowned

89percentofagriculturallandwasentirelyAustralianowned,thatisagriculturalbusinesseswhichwereentirelyAustralianownedaccountedfor89percentofagriculturalland

91percentofwaterentitlementsforagriculturalpurposeswereentirelyAustralianowned(ABS2011b).

ThestateofQueensland,maintainsaregisterofforeignownedruralandurbanlandaswellaswaterentitlementsunderitsForeignOwnershipofLandRegisterAct1988.UndertheAct,thetitlesofficemustbenotifiedofanytransactionsinvolvingforeignindividualsorcompanies.Thetitlesofficereportsonholdingsbyforeignerstoparliamentannually(Moir2011).TheAustralianGovernmentannouncedin2012thatitwillimplementanationalforeignownershipregisterforagriculturallandfollowingconsultationswithstakeholders.

ABARES

14

6 Is agricultural land use changing: a regional perspective?

Trendsinthechangeofagriculturallandusevarybetweendifferentagriculturallanduses,andthereareimportantregionaldifferences.ThiscanbeassessedbycomparingchangesinkeyagriculturallandusesusingtheABARESnationalscalelandusemaps,inthiscase,aggregatedtothestatisticallocalarea(SLA)level.Thisenablestherelativeproportionoflandusebyareatobedetermined.

Howhasgrazingchanged?Livestockgrazing(onbothnativeandmodifiedpastures,includingdairy)accountedformorethan429millionhaor56percentofthecontinentin2005‐06(ABARE‐BRS2010).Regionally,changesintheareaundergrazingbetween1992‐93and2005‐06werevariable.IncreasesintheproportionofareaundergrazingwerelargestinthecoastalregionsofNewSouthWalesandsouthernQueensland.DecreasesintheareaundergrazingweremostevidentacrossmuchofthesouthernAustralia(Map2).

Between1992‐93and2005‐06sheepnumbersdeclinedfrom138millionheadto91millionhead(‐34percent;ABS2012a)mainlythroughwesternVictoria,centralNewSouthWalesandsouth‐westernWesternAustralia.Thismayhavebeenduetoasignificantchangeinrelativereturnsfromwoolascomparedwithcroppingandotherlivestockenterprises.Ashiftfromwooltomeatsheepalsooccurred(ABARE2007).Beefcattleincreasedbyaround19percent,anddairycattlealsoincreasedbyaround11percent.Regionally,declinesintheareaoflandusedforgrazingaregenerallyassociatedwithincreasesintheareaoflandusedforcropping,andnatureconservation(Maps3and6).Grazingdecreasedandcroppingincreasedin62percentofstatisticallocalareas(SLAs)wherebothlandusesoccurred.Grazingdecreasedandnatureconservationincreasedin44percentofSLAswherebothlandusesoccurred.Areaswheredirectconversionsfromonelandusetoanotherhaveoccurredcannotbeidentifiedfromthedatausedinthisanalysis.

Howhascroppingchanged?Between1992‐93and2005‐06theareaoflandusedforcroppingincreasedbyaround7.5millionhaor39percentto27millionha(Map3).IncreaseswereevidentacrossmuchofsouthernAustralia‐forexampleinlandNewSouthWales,westernVictoria,partsofSouthAustraliaandsouth‐westWesternAustralia,probablyinresponsetoclimaticandeconomicconditions.Therewasasmalldeclineintheareaofnortherncropping.

Investigationofchangesincanolaandcottonproductionbetween1985‐86and2005‐06alsoshowincreaseswithintheMurrayDarling‐Basinforbothcommodities(Maps4and5).Canolahadlowerproductionandasmallspatialdistributionin1985‐86butby2005‐06ithadexpandedtomostofsouth‐westWesternAustraliaandsouth‐eastSouthAustralia.Cottonalsoexpandeditsdistributionwiththehigherproductionareasmovingsouth.Thismaybearesponsetoclimaticfactorssuchaswateravailability.

ABARES

15

Map 2 Change in the area used for grazing between 1992‐93 and 2005‐06

Note: Change in land used for grazing derived from the 1992‐93 (BRS 2006) and 2005‐06 (ABARE‐BRS 2010) national land

use maps. Change is represented at the statistical local area (SLA) level by subtracting the percentage of the SLA area

grazed in 1992‐93 from that in 2005‐06.


ABARES

16

Map 3 Change in the area used for cropping between 1992‐93 and 2005‐06

Note: Change in land used for grazing derived from the 1992‐93 (BRS 2006) and 2005‐06 (ABARE‐BRS 2010) national land

use maps. Change is represented at the statistical local area (SLA) level by subtracting the percentage of the SLA area

grazed in 1992‐93 from that in 2005‐06.


ABARES

17

Map 4 Change in the production of canola between 1985‐86 and 2005‐06

Note: Statistical local areas (SLAs) with less than 100 ha of canola or less than three businesses reporting canola have been

excluded.

Data source: ABS 1988 and 2008.

ABARES

18

Map 5 Change in the production of cotton between 1985‐86 and 2005‐06

Note: Statistical local areas (SLAs) with less than 100 ha of cotton or less than three businesses reporting cotton have been

excluded.

Data source: ABS 1988 and 2008.

ABARES

19

Howhaveotherlanduseschanged?Changesintheareaoftwonon‐agriculturallanduses‐natureconservationandplantationforestry‐arebrieflydiscussedbelow.

Conservationandnaturalenvironmentsisdefinedaslandusedfornatureconservation,managedresourceprotectionandotherusesincludingstockroutes,residualnativecover,defenceandIndigenoususe.In2005‐06,anareaof283millionha(37percentofAustralia)wasclassifiedasconservationandnaturalenvironmentswiththelargestareaslocatedincentralandnorthernAustralia.

Map 6 Change in the area of formal nature conservation between 1992‐93 and 2005‐06

Note: Change in land used for nature conservation derived from the 1992‐93 (BRS 2006) and 2005‐06 (ABARE‐BRS 2010)

national land use maps layers based on CAPAD categories Ia‐V. Change is represented at the statistical local area (SLA) level

by subtracting the percentage of the SLA area under conservation and other minimal use in 1992‐93 from that in 2005‐06.


ABARES

20

Therewasanincreaseintheareaofformalnatureconservation(acomponentofconservationandnaturalenvironmentscomprisingstrictnaturereserves,wildernessareas,nationalparks,naturalfeatureprotection,habitat/speciesmanagementareasandprotectedlandscapes)between1992‐93and2005‐06,especiallyinsouth‐westWesternAustralia,thesouthernpartsofSouthAustralia,andcoastalNewSouthWales(Map6).Small(lessthan10percent)decreasesinareawererecordedmainlyinremoteareasofcentralAustralia.

Australia’stotalcommercialplantationforestryareawas2millionhain2011‐12(0.26percentofAustralia'sarea),anincreaseof36percentsince2000(Gavran2013).Themajorityoflargescaleplantationsareinthehigherrainfallareas(greaterthan600mmperyear)withonlyasmallproportionoccurringinmajoragriculturalareassuchastheMurray‐DarlingBasin.In2011‐12,Victoriahadthelargestareasofplantations,followedbyWesternAustraliaandNewSouthWales(Table3).

Theareaofplantationshasincreasedsignificantlysince2000inalljurisdictionsexcepttheAustralianCapitalTerritory,withthelargestproportionalincrease(504.5percent)occurringintheNorthernTerritory(fromalowbaseline)andthelargestincreasesinarea(126000hectares)occurringinTasmania(Gavran2013).Newplantationsaredefinedasthoseestablishedonlandnotpreviouslyusedforplantationforestry.About4200haofnewplantationswereestablishedin2011‐12,orabout0.2percentofallplantations.Thisisthesmallestareaofnewplantationsestablishedsincetheearly1990s(Gavran2013).

Table 3 Change in plantation forest area in area, 2000 to 2012

2000 2012 Change 2000‐2012 ‘000 ha ‘000 ha Per cent

Australian Capital Territory 15 8 ‐48.1 New South Wales 319 392 22.9 Northern Territory 7 42 504.5

Queensland 191 233 22.2 South Australia 136 188 39.0

Tasmania 185 311 67.8 Victoria 319 434 36.1

Western Australia 314 405 29.1 Total 1 485 2 013 35.6

Data source: from Gavran 2013.

ABARES

21

7 Other pressures on agricultural land use

FactorsinfluencingagriculturallandusechangeinAustraliaincludeeconomic,environmentalandsocialdrivers,aswellasgovernmentpolicy.Economicdriversincludechangesinindustryperformancearisingfrommarketandproductioncostpressures,theintroductionofnewtechnologiesandnewmarketopportunities.Environmentaldriversforagriculturallandusechangeresultfrompressuresonresourceavailabilityincludingtheconditionoflandandtheavailabilityandqualityofwaterforagriculture.Socialfactorsincludechangingincomedistributions,urban‐ruralinteractions,thevulnerabilityandadaptivecapacityofcommunitiesandpopulationchange.Policyinterventionsbygovernmentssuchassubsidies,taxes,propertyrights,infrastructureandgovernancearrangementsarealsoinfluential(Lambinetal.2003).

Currentpressuresonlandresourcesandissuessurroundinglandusechangeincludeminingandotherextractiveindustries(suchascoalseamgas)andperi‐urbangrowth.Policyinterventionstopromoteclimatechangemitigation,includingcarbonfarming,arealsoamongthosefactorslikelytoinfluencelandusechangeinthefuture.

Theproductivityoflandusedforagriculturevarieswidely,andthereisconcernthatevenagriculturallandatthemoreproductiveendofthespectrumisunderpressurefromcompetinglanduses.Asaresult,agrowingnumberofAustralianstateagenciesarereviewingtheclassificationofagriculturallandswiththeaimofidentifyingproductiveorstrategicallyimportantagriculturalland.

Thedefinitionsandtermsusedtocategorisethesuitabilityoflandforagriculturevaryaccordingtopurpose,andsomestatesareusingclassificationstoimplementpoliciesthatconstrainthetypesofdevelopmentthatcanoccuronsomeclassesofagriculturalland.Forexample,theQueenslandgovernmenthaslegislatedthatdevelopmentapplicationsonlanddefinedas"strategiccroppingland"aresubjecttoadditionalassessmentstominimisepermanentimpactsonthelandthatwouldmakeitunsuitableforcropping.TheNewSouthWalesgovernmentisalsoimplementingstrategicregionallanduseplanninginordertoaddressconcernsaboutcompetinglanduseinterestssuchasagricultureandmining.

MiningandextractiveindustriesAnumberofregionsacrossAustraliaarebeingexploredanddevelopedformineralandenergyresources.Miningoperationsoccupiedapproximately0.02percentofAustraliain2005‐06(ABARE‐BRS2010).Someoftheseindustrieshavebeenoperatingforalongtimeandincludeextractionofcoal,uranium,ironore,nickel,bauxite,gold,lead,copper,zinc,mineralsands,coalseamgas(CSG)anddiamonds.Dependingontheresourcebeingmined,extractiongenerallyinvolvessurface(opencut)orsub‐surfacetechniques.

Thesurfacefootprintofindividualminingactivitiescanvaryandhasthepotentialtoimpactlandandwaterresourcesnotjustwithinlandoccupiedbythemine,butinthesurroundingarea.Thismaybesignificantwheretherearepotentialcumulativeimpacts.OfparticularinterestisthesignificantexpansionoftheCSGindustryinAustralia,whichhasledtoincreasedpressuresonlandandwaterresourcesinsomeregions(Box2).

ABARES

22

Box 2 Coal seam gas (CSG)

AustraliahassignificantreservesofCSG.ThegrowthoftheCSGindustryislikelytobeimportantintermsofitseconomicimpactatthelocal,stateandnationallevels.

CoalbasinsintheSuratandBowenBasinsinQueenslandandtheSydney,GunnedahandClarence‐MoretonBasinsinNewSouthWales,amongothers,arecurrentlybeingexploredanddevelopedfordomesticsupplyandoverseasexport(Map7).

Unlikeotherformsofminingwhicharegenerallyconcentratedaroundspecificlocations,CSGcaninvolverelativelydispersedactivityacrossalargerareaundersomecircumstances.CSGoperationscanoperatewitharangeoflanduses,includingagriculture.ThescaleandrateofexpansionoftheCSGindustrymayimpactexistinglanduseandlandmanagementpractices.TherearealsopotentialimpactsofCSGongroundwaterandsurfacewaterresources,somenegative,butalsopotentialpositiveimpactsofincreasesinwatersuppliesforagriculturalandotheruses.

Map 7 Coal basins under exploration and the value of agricultural production by SLA 2010‐11

Note: Coal basins under exploration coincide with areas of high production agricultural land in south east Queensland,

north east New South Wales and the southern Murray‐Darling Basin. The value of agriculture is expressed as the total gross

value of agricultural commodities produced (VACP) per km2 for statistical local areas (SLAs) in 2010‐11. This scale of

mapping does not indicate where individual CSG locations overlap with areas of high agricultural production. This map

indicates the location of sedimentary basins with potential for CSG.

Data source: Geoscience Australia 2012; ABS 2012b.

ABARES

23

Peri‐urbangrowthPeri‐urbanlandsareamongAustralia'smostproductiveagriculturallands.Peri‐urbanareasarethosethatlieonthefringeofthemajorbuilt‐upareasofcities.Theycanbecharacterisedasfallinginnon‐urbanzoningcategories,andhavinglowerpopulationdensityandlargerplotsizesthansuburbanareas(Aslinetal.2004).Ascitiesandtownsexpand,thegrowthofbuiltupareasatthefringe(peri‐urbanlands)maycompetewithagriculturallands.Thevalueofagriculturalcommoditiesproduced(VACP)asaproportionofthestatetotalisoftenmanytimeshigherthantheequivalentproportionoflandareausedforagriculture(Table4).TheMelbourneregion(ABSStatisticalDivision),forexample,hadonly2percentofthetotalareaofVictoria'sagriculturalholdingsin2010‐11,butthisareaproduced13.4percent($1.2billion)oftheState’sVACP(Table4).

Table 4 Value of agricultural commodities produced (VCAP) in state capital city statistical divisions and the area of agricultural holdings

Statistical Division (SD) VACP as a per cent of the state

Area of agricultural holdings as per cent of

state Sydney (New South Wales) 6.4 0.2

Melbourne (Victoria) 10.3 2.0 Brisbane (Queensland) 4.3 0.1

Adelaide (South Australia) 3.3 0.1 Perth (Western Australia) 7.6 0.1

Greater Hobart (Tasmania) 3.6 2.5 Darwin (Northern Territory) 13.4 0.6

Data source: ABS 2012a; ABS 2012b.

Asurbanareasexpand,agriculturalproductionmayintensify,withashifttohigheryieldingorhighervalueproduction‐forexample,amovefromgrazingtointensivehorticulture(BuxtonandLowChoy2007).Lessintensiveagriculturalactivitiesmayrelocateordecline.HorticultureaccountsforamuchhigherproportionofVACPforcapitalcitystatisticaldivisionsthanforcorrespondingstatesasawhole(Table5).Peri‐urbanfarmersoftenbenefitfrombeingclosetoalarger,wealthierconsumerbaseandalargerlabourmarket.Theycan,however,benegativelyaffectedbyrestrictionsonfarmactivitiessuchasnoise,odour,stockmovementsandtheuseofagriculturalsprays.

Table 5 Horticulture as proportion of VACP for capital city statistical divisions and states

Statistical Division Horticulture as proportion of VACP for

SD

Horticulture as proportion of VACP for

state Sydney (New South Wales) 47.3 11.9

Melbourne (Victoria) 62.0 22.5 Brisbane (Queensland) 50.7 23.7

Adelaide (South Australia) 92.3 20.5 Perth (Western Australia) 61.0 14.5

Greater Hobart (Tasmania) 49.5 30.1 Darwin (Northern Territory) 79.1 23.6

Note: Horticulture includes cut flowers and turf, fruit, and vegetables.

Data source: ABS 2012a; ABS 2012b.

Thereisacomplexrelationshipbetweentheprocessofurbangrowthandtheconsequentchangesintheareaofagriculturallandandagriculturalintensificationincapitalcityregions

ABARES

24

(Figure4).Forexample,inSydneybetween2009‐10and2010‐11,boththeareaunderagricultureandthenumberofagriculturalbusinessesdeclinedby13percentand11percentrespectively(Figure4),whilepopulationincreased.Incontrast,intheAdelaideregion,theareaunderagricultureandthenumberofagriculturalbusinessesincreasedby18percentand2percentoverthesameperiod.Thisoccurredalongwithanincreaseinpopulationofover9000people(Figure4).Thechangesinareaunderagriculturereflectthedynamicnatureoflandusechangeinresponsetoenvironmental,socialandeconomicfactors,however,itisnotpossibletoconfidentlysaywhichlanduseswereconvertedfromortoagriculture.

Figure 4 Change in population size, area of agricultural holdings and the number of agricultural businesses between 2009‐10 and 2010‐11 in selected state capital city statistical divisions

Note: Change comparison cannot be conducted further back than 2009‐10 as the geographical area of the statistical

divisions are not consistent (statistical divisions expand or contract in size as population increases and decreases). Between

2009‐10 and 2010‐11 there were no changes to the capital city statistical divisions (ABS 2011d). Analysis over a greater time

period would require concording of the population data to a common boundary.

Data source: ABS 2012a, 2012c, 2011c, 2011e.

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

Per cent change

Change in population size 2009‐10 to 2010‐11Change in area of agricultural holdings 2009‐10 to 2010‐11Change in number of agricultural businesses 2009‐10 to 2010‐11

ABARES

25

Conclusion Landusechoiceshaveamajoreffectonfoodproduction,thenaturalenvironmentandcommunities.LandusechangeisthereforerelevanttomuchofthecurrentdebateinAustraliaaroundagricultureandfoodsecurity,forestry,water,mining,climatechangemitigationandadaptation,urbanexpansion,biodiversityconservation,andlandscapeaesthetics.

Currentpressuresonagriculturallandandissuessurroundinglandusechangeincludeminingandexploration(includingcoalseamgasextraction)andurbangrowthatthemarginsofmajormetropolitanareasandincoastalregionsinsouthernandeasternAustralia.

Australiaisimprovingitscapacitytotracklandusechange,drawingoninformationsourcesincludingsatelliteremotesensingandstatisticalcollections.Thenextnationalscalelandusemapbasedon2010‐11agriculturalcensusinformationisdueforreleasebyABARESlatein2013andwillprovidetheopportunitytoanalysechangeacrossthecountryforanumberofkeylanduses(grazing,croppingandconservation)from1992‐93to2010‐11.Itwillalsobepossibletoanalysechangeforawiderrangeoflandusesbetween2005‐06and2010‐11.

Currentlyitisnotpossibletoconductnationalassessmentsoflandusechangeusingdetailedcatchmentscalelandusedataproducedbythestatesandterritoriesasthetimeatwhichthedatawascollectedvariesfrom1997to2009.TheAustralianCollaborativeLandUseandManagementProgram(ACLUMP),isworkingtoimprovethetemporalconsistencyofcatchmentscalelandusemappingacrossthecountryandinvestigatingtechniquestobuildlandusechangeanalysesintothemappingprocess.Thiswillimprovetheabilitytoreportonlandusechangeacrossthecountryatthecatchmentscale.

ABARES

26

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