towards sustainable energy in the power sector edit

7/27/2019 Towards Sustainable Energy in the Power Sector Edit

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wfYdal wNh.=KjOk

Asoka Abeygunawardana

;sridr n,Yla; wkd.;hla WfoidTowards sustainable energy in the

power sector ..


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-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Demand GWh

Electricity Demand Forecast,s b,af wfmalIs; jOkh

100% ,sh

7% jdIsl jOkh

m%jdyk lafIa;%h ,s lrKh

Transport sector electrification

(GWh/y)


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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Energy(GW

h)

CEB Genartion Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032

Oil

Coal

NCRE

New Major Hydro

Existing Major Hydro

,xu ckk ie,eiau jdIsl ^2013-32& jdIsl ,s ckkh


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Existing

Major

Hydro

28%

New

Major

Hydro

0%

NCRE

6%

Coal

34%

Oil

32%

Energy Mix - 2015Existing

Major

Hydro

22%

New

Major

Hydro

2%

NCRE

8%

Coal

62%

Oil

6%Energy Mix - 2020

Existing

Major

Hydro

12%

New Major

Hydro

2%

NCRE

6%

Coal

79%

Oil

1%

Energy Mix - 2032

,s ckkfham Nj ixhq;sh


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m Yak 2 la2 Issuses '''@


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* Oil - Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs(Assuming no reserves increase) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009

Oil*

(billion

barrels)

Gas

(trillion

cubic m)

Coal

(billion T)

Total Reserves in 2008 1260 185 826Consumption in 2008 30 3.96 6.78

Reserves availability at 2008 rate

(years)

42 60 122

Production growth rate during1990-2008 period

1.4% 3.1% 2.4%

Reserves availability at the

increasing rate (years)

30 years 2042

30 years

55 years

47 years

Future of Fossil fuels - fmdis, bkaOk j, wkd.;h

Issue 1- Scarcity of resourcesm Yakh 1 - im;a ysh


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CO2concentrationIn creased by 44%

Global average temperature0.850 C

Sea level rise10 cm

Issue 2- Global Warmingm Yakh 2- ys;,h WKqiq we;swhqre


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ldnka msglsu ms


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Carbon Emissions - Trend in Sri Lanka

Y%S ,xldf ldnka fudapkh

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500 BAU - CO2 % Increase

BAU - CO2 % Increase

250%

jeula


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0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

re,shk

jir

bkaOk wdkhk yd idm%odhsl wmkhk

f;a" rn" fmd,awmkhk

bkaOk wdkhk

Fossil Fuel Imports Vs Earnings from traditional Tea, Rubber

and Coconut exports


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Solutionsi 3


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Think Globally and Act Locallyf.da,Shj is;kk - foYShj lghq; lrkak1. Renewable Energy

mkckkh n,Yla;sh2. Energy Efficiency & Conservation

n,Yla;s ldhlIu;dj yd wrmrsueiu3. Sustainable Life Styles

iliqrej jk rgdj

Solutions i


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14

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Annual energy generation from FiT Projects (GWh)

2020wNsfhda.h- Challenge !

?


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m Yak 3 la3 Issuses '''@


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Issue 1 - RE Potentialm Yakh 1 - mqk ckkSh n,Yla;s NjhTechnology Current

(MW)

Conservative

Potential (MW)

Theoretical Potential

(MW)

Hydro Power (@ 40% pf) 1400 1960

Dendro Power (@ 70% pf) 11 900 3,000 (BEASL estimate)

Wind Power (@ 30% pf) 90 3000 20,000+24,000 (NRELestimate)

Solar Power (@ 16% pf ) 1 (10,000 ha)

Out of 6.5 mil

4.5 to 6.0 kWh/m2/day

Wave Power (@ 65% pf) 0 200 2000 (NARA estimate)

OTEC (80%) 0 200 Trincomalee Canyon: one

of the worlds best places

Geothermal 0 30 (GSMB estimate)

Total 1502 6290


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-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Mini hydro

Wind

Biomass dendro

Coal

Scacity

Coal with tax

Coal with loss

Biomass dendro

with CERs

Escalation due to inflation : fuel - 5.09%; O&M -7.64%

Escalation due to scarcity of coal resources: 3%

R

s/kWh

Year

Issue 2- True cost of Energym Yakh 2 - mqkckkh n,Yla;sfha ienE hou


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Issue 3- Storage .nvd lsrSu


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Pumping from Lower Reservoir with renewables, and save at

Upper Reservoir.

Upper Reservoir

Penstock

Power Plant

Switch Yard

Tunnel

Surge Tank

Intake

GeneratorLower Reservoir

Pumping

Pumped Water Storage Power Plant

Pumping

Myth 3- Storage .nvd lsrSu

P d W S P Pl


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Upper Reservoir

Penstock

Power Plant

Switch Yard

Tunnel

Surge Tank

Intake

Generator

Generation

Lower Reservoir

Generation

Energy Efficiency : 84.23%

Pumped Water Storage Power Plant


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Samanalawewa (Keriketi Oya) 1000 MW

Maussakele (Adam's Peak Falls) 500 MW

Randenigala (Halgran Oya) 500 MW

Kotmale (Maha Oya, Gurugal Oya, Kuda Oya) 900 MW

Upper Kotmale (Dambagastalawa, Agra Oya) 600 MW

Total 3500 MW

500 MW plant: capital - 360 to 500 million USD

- 7301000 USD/kWstudies are currently under way.

Potential sites

R d ti


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RecommendationskfoaYY%S ,xldjg ;srir n,Yla;s b,lal

Sustainable Energy Development Goalsrcfha b,lal - Government Targets1995

98% mqkckkSh n,Yla;s ^c, ,sh& (RE)

2010 - 40% mqkckkSh n,Yla;s ^c, ,sh& (RE)

2016 - 60% demand increase

2016 - 38% mqkckkSh n,Yla;s ^c, ,sh + fiiq- 10%) (RE)

2020 100% demand increase

b,a u l


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Y%S ,xldf ldnkafudapkh

Targeted Emissions ReductionSri Lanka

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

BAU - CO2 % IncreaseIntended Plan

250%

jeula

800%

jeula

500%

jeula


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Set the policy guidelines for financial

sustainability of the CEBMOPE

Set the policy framework for NCRE tariff MERE

Submit tariff proposal for the NCRE

avoided costCEB

Submit the NCRE cost based tariffproposal to PUCSL for achieving the

government announced NCRE target of

20% by 2020

SLSEA

Review the proposals and declare theNCRE avoided cost tariff to be paid by

the CEB and NCRE cost based tariff that

will be offered to the NERE developers

PUCSL

FIT Solution


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wjYH jk m;sm;a; rduqjPolicy Framework

fmdi, bkOk iykdOdr bj;a luRemove Fossil Fuel Subsidies

mkckkh n,Yla;sh i|yd.ld,Sk iyk KhLong term lending scheme for RE

ldnk wdodh ,nd.ekuAccess Carbon credits


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wjYH jk m;sm;a; rduqjPolicy Framework

fjk;a lfI; j, m;s,dNhk n,Yla;slafI; hg ,euAssist power sector to get indirect economic

benefits from other sectors mkckkh n,Yla;sh ms

towards sustainable energy in the power sector edit

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