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1
Appendix 1
Towers Watson Report UMC Call to Action Vital Congregations Research Project Findings Report for Steering Team
CALL TO ACTION, page 45 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
.
UM
C C
all t
o A
ctio
n:Vi
tal C
ongr
egat
ions
Res
earc
h Pr
ojec
tFi
ndin
gs R
epor
t for
Ste
erin
g Te
am
June
28,
201
0
Dav
id d
e W
ette
rIle
ne G
ochm
an, P
h.D
.R
ich
Luss
Ric
k Sh
erw
ood
CALL TO ACTION, page 46 of 248
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com
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Exec
utiv
e Su
mm
ary
Tow
ers
Wat
son
cond
ucte
d co
mpr
ehen
sive
, rob
ust r
esea
rch
(usi
ng p
rove
n da
ta
colle
ctio
n an
d an
alys
is te
chni
ques
) on
data
from
var
ious
sou
rces
and
type
s of
su
rvey
s ac
ross
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Res
pons
e ra
te to
the
surv
eys
was
goo
d, w
hich
ens
ures
the
findi
ngs
are
relia
ble
at a
95
% le
vel o
f con
fiden
ce
Tow
ers
Wat
son
calc
ulat
ed a
vita
lity
inde
x fo
r eac
h ch
urch
bas
ed o
n in
dica
tors
of
vita
lity
iden
tifie
d by
the
Ste
erin
g C
omm
ittee
Cal
cula
tion
was
don
e fo
r chu
rche
s w
here
dat
a w
ere
avai
labl
e (n
=32,
228)
Als
o ca
lcul
ated
thre
e su
b-fa
ctor
s of
vita
lity
–at
tend
ance
, gro
wth
and
eng
agem
ent
Bas
ed o
n vi
talit
y in
dex,
Tow
ers
Wat
son
foun
d th
at a
ll ki
nds
of U
MC
chu
rche
s ar
e vi
tal –
smal
l, la
rge,
acr
oss
diffe
rent
geo
grap
hies
, and
chu
rch
setti
ng (e
.g.,
urba
n, ru
ral)
Tow
ers
Wat
son
cond
ucte
d re
gres
sion
ana
lyse
s to
iden
tify
driv
ers
of th
e vi
talit
y in
dex
and
four
key
driv
ers
of v
italit
y st
and
out –
crys
tal c
lear
find
ings
that
are
ac
tiona
ble
The
four
key
driv
ers
of v
italit
y ar
e fa
irly
cons
iste
nt a
cros
s di
ffere
nt ty
pes
of
chur
ches
CALL TO ACTION, page 47 of 248
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com
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10 T
ower
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atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
or• E
xcel
lenc
e in
key
attri
bute
s
•App
oint
men
t len
gth
Wor
ship
Ser
vice
• Mix
of t
radi
tiona
lan
d co
ntem
pora
ry•S
peci
fic a
spec
ts
Smal
l Gro
ups
& P
rogr
ams
• Num
ber o
f Gro
ups
•Chi
ldre
n &
You
thP
rogr
ams
Lay
Lead
ersh
ip• E
ffect
iven
ess
•Spe
cific
pro
gram
s an
d in
volv
emen
t
Four
key
are
as a
re th
e dr
iver
s of
vita
lity
Indi
cato
rs
of V
italit
y
Not
e:Sm
all g
roup
s in
clud
e st
udy,
fello
wsh
ip, a
nd s
ervi
ce.
Prog
ram
s in
clud
e cl
asse
s an
d ot
her a
ctiv
ities
CALL TO ACTION, page 48 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Driv
ing
diffe
rent
fact
ors
of v
italit
yD
river
Ove
rall
Vita
lity
Atte
ndan
ce
Fact
orG
row
th
Fact
orEn
gage
men
t Fa
ctor
Smal
l Gro
ups
Lay
Lead
ersh
ip
Mix
of T
radi
tiona
l and
Con
tem
pora
ry s
ervi
ce
Usi
ng m
ore
topi
cal p
reac
hing
in T
radi
tiona
l ser
vice
Usi
ng m
ore
cont
empo
rary
mus
ic in
Con
tem
pora
ry s
ervi
ce
Usi
ng m
ore
mul
ti-m
edia
in C
onte
mpo
rary
ser
vice
Pas
tor
Focu
sing
on
deve
lopi
ng, c
oach
ing
and
men
torin
g to
ena
ble
laity
lead
ersh
ip to
impr
ove
perfo
rman
ceIn
fluen
cing
the
actio
ns a
nd b
ehav
iors
of o
ther
s to
ac
com
plis
h ch
ange
s in
the
loca
l chu
rch
Prop
ellin
g th
e lo
cal c
hurc
h to
set
and
ach
ieve
sig
nific
ant
goal
s th
roug
h ef
fect
ive
lead
ersh
ip
Insp
iring
the
cong
rega
tion
thro
ugh
prea
chin
g
Leng
th o
f app
oint
men
t
Num
ber o
f sm
all g
roup
s
Num
ber o
f pro
gram
s fo
r chi
ldre
n
Num
ber o
f pro
gram
s fo
r you
th
Effe
ctiv
enes
s of
lay
lead
ersh
ip
Lay
lead
ersh
ip d
emon
stra
ting
vita
l per
sona
l fai
th
Rot
atin
g la
y le
ader
ship
% o
f atte
ndee
s se
rvin
g as
lead
ers
in p
ast 5
yea
rs
Wor
ship
Ser
vice
Den
otes
the
driv
er h
as a
pos
itive
impa
ct o
n th
e fa
ctor
of v
italit
y
CALL TO ACTION, page 49 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
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n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
.
Proj
ect M
etho
dolo
gy
CALL TO ACTION, page 50 of 248
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son.
com
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Res
earc
h pr
ojec
t met
hodo
logy
Esta
blis
hFo
unda
tion
Esta
blis
hFo
unda
tion
Dev
elop
Hyp
othe
ses
Dev
elop
Hyp
othe
ses
Gat
her D
ata
and
Test
Hyp
othe
ses
Gat
her D
ata
and
Test
Hyp
othe
ses
Fina
lize
Find
ings
Fina
lize
Find
ings
Febr
uary
Febr
uary
-M
arch
Mar
ch -
May
May
-Ju
ne
Laun
ch th
e pr
oces
s (p
roje
ct te
am a
nd s
teer
ing
team
)
Iden
tify
key
stak
ehol
ders
Dev
elop
com
mun
icat
ion
plan
and
mes
sage
s
Iden
tify
key
perfo
rman
ce
outc
omes
Ass
ess
exis
ting
data
so
urce
s
Sel
ect i
nter
view
ees
Dev
elop
inte
rvie
w g
uide
an
d co
nduc
t int
ervi
ews
Iden
tify
chur
ches
for
obse
rvat
ion
Dev
elop
obs
erva
tion
guid
e an
d co
nduc
t vis
its
Dev
elop
hyp
othe
ses
base
d on
find
ings
Rev
iew
hyp
othe
ses
with
st
eerin
g te
am
Eva
luat
e qu
ality
and
av
aila
bilit
y of
dat
a
Gat
her e
xist
ing
data
Col
lect
add
ition
al d
ata
Anal
yze
data
Dev
elop
mod
el to
pre
dict
ch
urch
per
form
ance
ou
tcom
es
Dra
ft re
sear
ch fi
ndin
gs
base
d on
mod
el
Mee
t with
pro
ject
team
to
refin
e re
sear
ch fi
ndin
gs
•Te
st re
sear
ch fi
ndin
gs w
ith
stee
ring
team
•D
eliv
er fi
nal r
esea
rch
repo
rt
Gui
ding
Prin
cipl
es:I
nclu
sive
, Pra
ctic
al, F
act-b
ased
Insi
ght a
nd D
ecis
ions
Gui
ding
Prin
cipl
es:I
nclu
sive
, Pra
ctic
al, F
act-b
ased
Insi
ght a
nd D
ecis
ions
CALL TO ACTION, page 51 of 248
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son.
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Res
earc
h m
odel
Driv
ers
Vita
l C
hurc
hes
Indi
cato
rs o
f C
hurc
h Vi
talit
yO
rgan
izat
iona
l Fa
ctor
s
Wha
t are
the
fact
ors
that
in
dire
ctly
influ
ence
the
desi
red
stat
e?
Wha
t are
the
fact
ors
that
dire
ctly
impa
ct th
e de
sire
d st
ate?
Wha
t ind
icat
es th
at th
e de
sire
d st
ate
has
been
ac
hiev
ed?
W
hat i
s th
ede
sire
d st
ate?
Res
earc
h fo
cuse
d on
id
entif
ying
the
key
driv
ers
of th
e In
dica
tors
of
Chu
rch
Vita
lity
CALL TO ACTION, page 52 of 248
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com
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
8
Res
earc
h m
odel
(con
tinue
d)
Driv
ers
Vita
l C
hurc
hes
Indi
cato
rs o
f C
hurc
h Vi
talit
yO
rgan
izat
iona
l Fa
ctor
s
Iden
tify
List
of I
ndic
ator
s•
Serie
s of
mee
tings
and
di
scus
sion
s w
ith th
e S
teer
ing
Team
Cal
cula
te V
italit
y In
dex
•D
ata
prov
ided
by
GC
F&A
•TW
cal
cula
ted
Vita
lity
Inde
x fo
r eac
h N
orth
Am
eric
an U
M
chur
ch
Dev
elop
Hyp
othe
ses
•26
inte
rvie
ws
with
st
akeh
olde
rs a
cros
s U
MC
•G
roup
mee
tings
•Ap
poin
tmen
t pro
cess
Test
Hyp
othe
ses
•Fi
ve s
urve
ys ta
rget
ed a
t di
ffere
nt s
take
hold
er g
roup
s to
col
lect
dat
a on
the
hypo
thes
es
Res
earc
h M
etho
dolo
gy
CALL TO ACTION, page 53 of 248
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swat
son.
com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Test
ing
hypo
thes
es
Surv
eyTy
pe a
nd N
umbe
r of Q
uest
ions
Bis
hop
Sur
vey
9 qu
estio
ns m
easu
ring
pote
ntia
l driv
ers
such
as:
App
oint
men
t pro
cess
Con
fere
nce
prog
ram
s fo
cuse
d on
vita
lity
Dis
trict
S
uper
inte
nden
t S
urve
y
5 qu
estio
ns m
easu
ring
pote
ntia
l driv
ers
such
as:
Tim
e al
loca
tion
Man
agin
g pe
rform
ance
of P
asto
rs14
que
stio
ns m
easu
ring
a sa
mpl
e of
thei
r Pas
tors
on
aspe
cts
of
lead
ersh
ip
Pas
tor S
urve
y
22 q
uest
ions
mea
surin
g po
tent
ial d
river
s su
ch a
s:P
erso
nal d
emog
raph
ics
(age
, len
gth
in c
urre
nt a
ppoi
ntm
ent,
etc.
)La
ity le
ader
ship
9 qu
estio
ns m
easu
ring
aspe
cts
of d
iffer
ent t
ypes
of w
orsh
ip
serv
ices
Chu
rch
Sur
vey
54 q
uest
ions
mea
surin
g po
tent
ial d
river
s su
ch a
s:C
hurc
h pr
ogra
ms
offe
red
and
atte
ndan
ce in
thos
e pr
ogra
ms
Laity
lead
ersh
ipC
ongr
egat
ion
Wor
ship
SP
RC
Sur
vey
15 q
uest
ions
mea
surin
g th
eir P
asto
r on
aspe
cts
of le
ader
ship
CALL TO ACTION, page 54 of 248
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swat
son.
com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Test
ing
hypo
thes
es (c
ontin
ued)
Surv
eyW
ho W
as A
sked
to T
ake
the
Surv
ey?
Bis
hop
Sur
vey
All
Bis
hops
–N
orth
Am
eric
a
Dis
trict
S
uper
inte
nden
t S
urve
yA
ll D
istri
ct S
uper
inte
nden
ts –
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Pas
tor S
urve
y
Chu
rch
Sur
vey
SP
RC
Sur
vey
Sam
ple
of P
asto
rs/C
hurc
hes
–N
orth
Am
eric
a
CALL TO ACTION, page 55 of 248
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swat
son.
com
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Surv
ey a
dmin
istr
atio
n
Em
ail i
nvita
tions
wer
e se
nt o
n M
ay 1
1, 2
010
Bis
hop
invi
tatio
n ca
me
from
the
Cou
ncil
of B
isho
ps o
ffice
Dis
trict
Sup
erin
tend
ent,
Pas
tor,
Chu
rch,
SP
RC
invi
tatio
ns c
ame
dire
ctly
from
To
wer
s W
atso
n
Rem
inde
r em
ails
wer
e se
nt to
boo
st p
artic
ipat
ion
Sur
vey
was
ope
n fo
r tw
o an
d a
half
wee
ks to
ens
ure
that
eve
ryon
eha
d th
e op
portu
nity
to p
artic
ipat
e
Goo
d re
spon
se ra
te a
cros
s fo
ur o
f the
five
sur
veys
CALL TO ACTION, page 56 of 248
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son.
com
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Surv
ey re
spon
se ra
tes
Surv
ey
(All
Nor
th A
mer
ica)
# In
vite
d#
Res
pond
ing
Res
pons
e R
ate
Bis
hop
Sur
vey
6233
53%
Dis
trict
Sup
erin
tend
ent S
urve
y45
816
436
%
Pas
tor S
urve
y17
,943
3,39
219
%
Chu
rch
Sur
vey
17,9
432,
208
12%
SP
RC
Sur
vey
3,50
654
2%
CALL TO ACTION, page 57 of 248
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
.
Surv
ey R
epre
sent
ativ
enes
s
CALL TO ACTION, page 58 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Test
ing
for r
epre
sent
ativ
enes
s
Surv
ey
(All
Nor
th A
mer
ica)
Res
pons
e R
ate
Com
men
t
Bis
hop
Sur
vey
53%
TW ti
ed P
asto
r and
Chu
rch
data
to
conf
eren
ces
whe
re th
e B
isho
p re
spon
ded
Dis
trict
Sup
erin
tend
ent
Sur
vey
36%
Base
d on
TW
ana
lyse
s, th
e re
spon
dent
s to
th
is s
urve
y ar
e re
pres
enta
tive
of th
e po
pula
tion
Pas
tor S
urve
y19
%Ba
sed
on T
W a
naly
ses,
the
resp
onde
nts
to
this
sur
vey
are
repr
esen
tativ
e of
the
popu
latio
n
Chu
rch
Sur
vey
12%
Base
d on
TW
ana
lyse
s, th
e re
spon
dent
s to
th
is s
urve
y ar
e re
pres
enta
tive
of th
e po
pula
tion
SP
RC
Sur
vey
2%R
espo
nse
rate
was
too
low
to u
se th
ese
surv
ey re
spon
ses
in o
ur a
naly
ses
CALL TO ACTION, page 59 of 248
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com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Why
thes
e fin
ding
s ca
n be
trus
ted
In a
rese
arch
stu
dy li
ke th
is, w
e lo
ok a
t tw
o fa
ctor
sR
epre
sent
ativ
e –
do th
e fin
ding
s ap
ply
acro
ss a
ll of
the
popu
latio
n? Y
ESR
elia
bilit
y –
wou
ld th
e fin
ding
s be
repl
icat
ed if
we
did
the
stud
y ag
ain?
YES
Rep
rese
ntat
ive
(Nor
th A
mer
ica)
Eac
h of
the
conf
eren
ces
are
repr
esen
ted
Chu
rche
s of
all
size
s ar
e re
pres
ente
dC
hurc
hes
of a
ll le
vels
of v
italit
y ar
e re
pres
ente
dC
hurc
hes
from
eth
nic
min
oriti
es (A
sian
, Bla
ck,
His
pani
c) a
re re
pres
ente
d
Rel
iabi
lity
Bas
ed o
n th
e nu
mbe
r of r
espo
nses
, we
can
be 9
5%
conf
iden
ce in
the
resu
lts w
ith a
mar
gin
of e
rror
of +
/-2
perc
enta
ge p
oint
s
The
findi
ngs
appl
y ac
ross
the
who
le N
orth
Am
eric
an U
MC
pop
ulat
ion
and
wou
ld b
e re
plic
ated
if th
e st
udy
wer
e do
ne a
gain
.
CALL TO ACTION, page 60 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Ana
lysi
s: V
italit
y in
dex
Tota
l chu
rch
popu
latio
n vs
. sam
ple
vs. r
espo
nden
ts
15% 49
%
36%Con
clus
ion:
Res
pond
ent p
opul
atio
n is
repr
esen
tativ
e of
bot
h S
ampl
e an
d To
tal
Pop
ulat
ion
for N
orth
Am
eric
aC
oncl
usio
n: R
espo
nden
t pop
ulat
ion
is re
pres
enta
tive
of b
oth
Sam
ple
and
Tota
lP
opul
atio
n fo
r Nor
th A
mer
ica
Tota
l Chu
rch
Popu
latio
nSa
mpl
e C
hurc
h Po
pula
tion 18
%
50%
32%
19%
52%
29%
Res
pond
ent
Popu
latio
n
Med
ium
Vita
lity
Low
Vita
lity
Hig
h Vi
talit
y
CALL TO ACTION, page 61 of 248
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
.
Dat
a A
naly
sis
CALL TO ACTION, page 62 of 248
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Indi
cato
rs o
f vita
lity
base
d on
Ste
erin
g Te
am in
put
1.A
vera
ge w
orsh
ip a
ttend
ance
as
perc
enta
ge o
f mem
bers
hip
1.a.
Sin
gle
poin
t and
ove
r fiv
e ye
ars
1.b.
Incr
ease
or d
ecre
ase
over
five
yea
rs
2.To
tal m
embe
rshi
p 2.
a. S
ingl
e po
int a
nd o
ver f
ive
year
s
2.b.
Incr
ease
or d
ecre
ase
over
five
yea
rs
3.N
umbe
r of c
hild
ren,
you
th, a
nd y
oung
adu
lts a
ttend
ing
as a
per
cent
age
of m
embe
rshi
p3.
a. S
ingl
e po
int a
nd o
ver f
ive
year
s
3.b.
Incr
ease
or d
ecre
ase
over
five
yea
rs
4.N
umbe
r of p
rofe
ssio
ns o
f fai
th a
s pe
rcen
tage
of (
a) a
ttend
ance
and
(b) m
embe
rshi
p 4.
a.S
ingl
e po
int a
nd o
ver f
ive
year
s
4.b.
Incr
ease
or d
ecre
ase
over
five
yea
rs
5.A
nnua
l giv
ing
per a
ttend
ee
5.a.
Sin
gle
poin
t and
ove
r thr
ee y
ears
5.b.
Incr
ease
or d
ecre
ase
over
thre
e ye
ars
6.Fi
nanc
ial b
enev
olen
ce b
eyon
d th
e lo
cal c
hurc
h as
a p
erce
ntag
e of
chur
ch b
udge
t6.
aSi
ngle
poi
nt a
nd o
ver f
ive
year
s
6.b.
Incr
ease
or d
ecre
ase
over
five
yea
rs
NO
TE:T
he in
dica
tors
of v
italit
y w
ere
chos
en a
s pr
oxie
s fo
r vi
talit
y by
the
stee
ring
team
as
the
indi
cato
rs n
eede
d to
be
mea
sura
ble
and
have
ava
ilabl
e da
ta
CALL TO ACTION, page 63 of 248
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Vita
lity
inde
x
Tow
ers
Wat
son
used
a s
tatis
tical
tech
niqu
e ca
lled
fact
or a
naly
sis
to
grou
p th
e In
dica
tors
of V
italit
y in
to th
ree
fact
ors
as s
how
n be
low
Fact
orIn
dica
tors
of V
italit
y
Atte
ndan
ceA
vera
ge w
orsh
ip a
ttend
ance
as
perc
enta
ge o
f mem
bers
hip
Num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n, y
outh
, and
you
ng a
dults
atte
ndin
g as
a p
erce
ntag
e of
m
embe
rshi
p
Gro
wth
Cha
nge
in a
vera
ge w
orsh
ip a
ttend
ance
as
perc
enta
ge o
f mem
bers
hip
over
fiv
e ye
ars
Cha
nge
in m
embe
rshi
p ov
er fi
ve y
ears
Cha
nge
in a
nnua
l giv
ing
per a
ttend
ee o
ver t
hree
yea
rsC
hang
e in
fina
ncia
l ben
evol
ence
bey
ond
the
loca
l chu
rch
as a
per
cent
age
of c
hurc
h bu
dget
ove
r fiv
e ye
ars
Enga
gem
ent
Pro
fess
ions
of f
aith
per
mem
ber
Ann
ual g
ivin
g pe
r atte
ndee
CALL TO ACTION, page 64 of 248
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
A s
core
was
cal
cula
ted
for e
ach
chur
ch in
Nor
th A
mer
ica
whe
re d
ata
wer
e av
aila
ble
(n=
32,2
28) f
or e
ach
of th
e th
ree
fact
ors
Chu
rche
s w
ere
segm
ente
d in
to th
ree
grou
ps b
ased
on
the
dist
ribut
ion
of th
eir s
core
s
Vita
lity
inde
x (c
ontin
ued)
Exam
ple
Gro
wth
Fac
tor S
core
Bot
tom
25%
Chu
rch
AC
hurc
h B
Mid
dle
50%
Chu
rch
CC
hurc
h D
Chu
rch
EC
hurc
h F
Top
25%
Chu
rch
GC
hurc
h H
Low
Hig
h
CALL TO ACTION, page 65 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Vita
lity
Inde
x (c
ontin
ued)
A n
umer
ic s
core
(eith
er 1
, 2, o
r 3) w
as a
ssig
ned
to e
ach
of th
e fa
ctor
s fo
r eac
h ch
urch
dep
endi
ng o
n w
heth
er th
ey w
ere
in th
e To
p, M
iddl
e, o
r B
otto
m s
egm
ent o
f the
dis
tribu
tion
Fact
orIn
dica
tors
of V
italit
yTo
p 25
%M
iddl
e 50
%B
otto
m
25%
Atte
ndan
ceA
vera
ge w
orsh
ip a
ttend
ance
as
perc
enta
ge o
f m
embe
rshi
pN
umbe
r of c
hild
ren,
you
th, a
nd y
oung
adu
lts a
ttend
ing
as
a pe
rcen
tage
of m
embe
rshi
p3
21
Gro
wth
Cha
nge
in a
vera
ge w
orsh
ip a
ttend
ance
as
perc
enta
ge o
f m
embe
rshi
p ov
er fi
ve y
ears
Cha
nge
in m
embe
rshi
p ov
er fi
ve y
ears
Cha
nge
in a
nnua
l giv
ing
per a
ttend
ee o
ver t
hree
yea
rsC
hang
e in
fina
ncia
l ben
evol
ence
bey
ond
the
loca
l chu
rch
as a
per
cent
age
of c
hurc
h bu
dget
ove
r fiv
e ye
ars
3 3
1
Enga
gem
ent
Pro
fess
ions
of f
aith
per
mem
ber
Ann
ual g
ivin
g pe
r atte
ndee
2 21
CALL TO ACTION, page 66 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Vita
lity
Inde
x (c
ontin
ued)
A s
ingl
e in
dex
was
cal
cula
ted
for e
ach
chur
ch b
y ad
ding
up
the
num
eric
sco
res
on e
ach
of th
e th
ree
fact
ors
Chu
rch
Atte
ndan
ceG
row
thE
ngag
emen
tV
italit
y In
dex
A3
33
9
B3
21
6
C2
22
6
D1
11
3
Exam
ple
CALL TO ACTION, page 67 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Vita
lity
Inde
x (c
ontin
ued)
To fa
cilit
ate
the
anal
ysis
, the
vita
lity
inde
x w
as c
olla
psed
into
thre
e ca
tego
ries:
Hig
h V
italit
y, M
ediu
m V
italit
y, a
nd L
ow V
italit
y
Vita
lity
Inde
xC
ateg
ory
% o
f Tot
al* U
MC
N
A C
hurc
hes
# of
UM
C N
A
Chu
rche
s9 8
Hig
h V
ital
15%
4,96
1
7 6M
ediu
m V
ital
49%
15,5
46
5 4 3Lo
w V
ital
36%
11,7
21
*Bas
ed o
n th
e 32
,228
chu
rche
s w
ith a
vaila
ble
data
on
the
Indi
cato
rs o
f Vita
lity
CALL TO ACTION, page 68 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Whi
le la
rger
chu
rche
s ar
e m
ore
likel
y to
be
vita
l tha
n sm
alle
r chu
rche
s th
ere
are
man
y hi
gh v
ital c
hurc
hes
acro
ss a
ll ch
urch
siz
es
Vita
lity
inde
x by
chu
rch
size
18%
41%
29%
12%
Larg
e C
hurc
hes
(AW
A o
f 350
or m
ore)
Med
ium
Chu
rche
s (A
WA
from
100
to 3
49)
Sm
all c
hurc
hes
(AW
A fr
om 3
5 to
99)
Ver
y S
mal
l chu
rche
s (A
WA
less
than
35)
Per
cent
of T
otal
Vita
l Chu
rche
s by
Chu
rch
Siz
e
n=59
6
n=1,
424
n=2,
080
n=87
1
CALL TO ACTION, page 69 of 248
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Cal
cula
ting
the
key
driv
ers
of v
italit
y
Sta
tistic
al te
chni
que
used
to id
entif
y th
e im
pact
of v
aria
bles
on
a de
sire
d ou
tcom
eD
irect
ion
-Doe
s th
is v
aria
ble
have
a p
ositi
ve o
r neg
ativ
e im
pact
on
the
desi
red
outc
ome?
Mag
nitu
de–
How
muc
h im
pact
doe
s th
is v
aria
ble
have
on
the
desi
red
outc
ome?
Com
mon
ly u
sed
stat
istic
al te
chni
que
in c
onsu
mer
, em
ploy
ee a
nd
polit
ical
rese
arch
to h
elp
iden
tify
and
prio
ritiz
e ac
tions
that
will
hav
e th
e gr
eate
st im
pact
on
a de
sire
d ou
tcom
e
CALL TO ACTION, page 70 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Cal
cula
ting
the
key
driv
ers
of v
italit
y (c
ontin
ued)
Reg
ress
ion
anal
ysis
qua
ntifi
ed th
e re
latio
nshi
p be
twee
n th
e va
riabl
esin
ea
ch h
ypot
hese
s an
d th
e In
dica
tors
of V
italit
yS
ome
fact
ors
had
a po
sitiv
e im
pact
Som
e fa
ctor
s ha
d a
nega
tive
impa
ctS
ome
fact
ors
had
no s
igni
fican
t im
pact
Reg
ress
ions
sho
wed
als
o th
at th
e va
riabl
es in
eac
h hy
poth
esis
im
pact
ed th
e fa
ctor
s of
vita
lity
(Atte
ndan
ce, G
row
th, E
ngag
emen
t) in
di
ffere
nt w
ays
Thro
ugho
ut th
e fin
ding
s, w
e w
ill h
ighl
ight
whe
n th
e hy
poth
eses
had
an
impa
ct o
n th
e V
italit
y In
dex
and
whe
n th
e hy
poth
eses
had
an
impa
ct o
n sp
ecifi
c fa
ctor
s of
vita
lity
CALL TO ACTION, page 71 of 248
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
.
Find
ings
CALL TO ACTION, page 72 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Four
key
are
as a
re th
e dr
iver
s of
vita
lity
Past
or•E
xcel
lenc
e in
key
attri
bute
s
•App
oint
men
t len
gth
Wor
ship
Ser
vice
•Mix
of t
radi
tiona
lan
d co
ntem
pora
ry•S
peci
fic a
spec
ts
Smal
l Gro
ups
& P
rogr
ams
•Num
ber o
f Gro
ups
•Chi
ldre
n &
Yout
hPr
ogra
ms
Lay
Lead
ersh
ip•E
ffect
iven
ess
•Spe
cific
pro
gram
s an
d in
volv
emen
t
Indi
cato
rs
of V
italit
y
Tow
ers
Wat
son
calc
ulat
ed a
vita
lity
inde
x fo
r eac
h ch
urch
(n=3
2,22
8) b
ased
on
indi
cato
rs o
f vita
lity
iden
tifie
d by
the
Ste
erin
g C
omm
ittee
Bas
ed o
n vi
talit
y in
dex,
Tow
ers
Wat
son
foun
d th
at a
ll ki
nds
of U
MC
chu
rche
s ar
e vi
tal –
smal
l, la
rge,
acr
oss
diffe
rent
ge
ogra
phie
s, a
nd c
hurc
h se
tting
(e.g
., ur
ban,
rura
l)
Tow
ers
Wat
son
cond
ucte
d re
gres
sion
an
alys
es to
iden
tify
driv
ers
of th
e vi
talit
y in
dex
and
four
key
driv
ers
of v
italit
y st
and
out –
crys
tal c
lear
find
ings
that
ar
e ac
tiona
ble
The
four
key
driv
ers
of v
italit
y ar
e fa
irly
cons
iste
nt a
cros
s di
ffere
nt ty
pes
of
chur
ches
Not
e:Sm
all g
roup
s in
clud
e st
udy,
fello
wsh
ip, a
nd s
ervi
ce.
Prog
ram
s in
clud
e cl
asse
s an
d ot
her a
ctiv
ities
CALL TO ACTION, page 73 of 248
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Reg
ress
ions
iden
tifie
d th
at th
e nu
mbe
r of s
mal
l gro
ups
(stu
dy,
fello
wsh
ip, s
ervi
ce) i
mpa
cts
vita
lity
60%
of c
hurc
hes
with
hig
h vi
talit
y ha
ve o
ver 5
sm
all g
roup
s
Onl
y 1/
3 of
chu
rche
s w
ith lo
w v
italit
y ha
ve o
ver 5
sm
all g
roup
sN
ote:
Smal
l gro
ups
incl
ude
stud
y, fe
llow
ship
, and
ser
vice
Smal
l gro
ups
& p
rogr
ams
Num
ber o
f sm
all g
roup
s –
all c
hurc
hes
46%
20%
20%
14%
Low
Vita
l Chu
rche
s
19%
21%
27%
33%H
igh
Vita
l Chu
rche
s
Thre
e or
few
er g
roup
sFo
ur o
r fiv
e gr
oups
Six
to 1
0 gr
oups
Mor
e th
an 1
0 gr
oups
CALL TO ACTION, page 74 of 248
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wer
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son.
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Reg
ardl
ess
of s
ize,
mor
e vi
tal c
hurc
hes
have
mor
e sm
all g
roup
s
Smal
l gro
ups
& p
rogr
ams
Num
ber o
f sm
all g
roup
s –
by c
hurc
h si
ze
# of
Gro
ups
in a
H
igh
Vita
l Chu
rch
# of
Gro
ups
in a
Low
Vita
l Chu
rch
Larg
er C
hurc
hes
(AW
A of
350
or m
ore)
37.5
22.5
9.8
4.5
Ver
y S
mal
l chu
rche
s
(AW
A le
ss th
an 3
5)2.
92.
516
%
66%
Med
ium
Siz
e C
hurc
hes
(AW
A be
twee
n 10
0 an
d 34
9)12
.1
% D
iffer
ence
23%
Sm
all c
hurc
hes
(AW
A be
twee
n 35
and
99)
5.1
12%
Not
e:Sm
all g
roup
s in
clud
e st
udy,
fello
wsh
ip, a
nd s
ervi
ce
CALL TO ACTION, page 75 of 248
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Reg
ardl
ess
of s
ize,
mor
e vi
tal c
hurc
hes
have
mor
e pr
ogra
ms
for
child
ren
(und
er 1
2 ye
ars
old)
Smal
l gro
ups
& p
rogr
ams
Num
ber o
f pro
gram
s fo
r chi
ldre
n
# of
Pro
gram
s in
a
Hig
h Vi
tal C
hurc
h#
of P
rogr
ams
in a
Low
Vita
l Chu
rch
Larg
er C
hurc
hes
(AW
A of
350
or m
ore)
16.9
6.8
4.7
2.5
Ver
y S
mal
l chu
rche
s
(AW
A le
ss th
an 3
5)2.
21.
459
%
149%
Med
ium
Siz
e C
hurc
hes
(AW
A be
twee
n 10
0 an
d 34
9)6.
7
% D
iffer
ence
42%
Sm
all c
hurc
hes
(AW
A be
twee
n 35
and
99)
3.4
34%
Not
e:Pr
ogra
ms
incl
ude
clas
ses
and
othe
r act
iviti
es
CALL TO ACTION, page 76 of 248
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Reg
ardl
ess
of s
ize,
mor
e vi
tal c
hurc
hes
have
mor
e pr
ogra
ms
for y
outh
(a
ge 1
2 -1
8)
Smal
l gro
ups
& p
rogr
ams
Num
ber o
f pro
gram
s fo
r you
th
# of
Pro
gram
s in
a
Hig
h Vi
tal C
hurc
h#
of P
rogr
ams
in a
Low
Vita
l Chu
rch
Larg
er C
hurc
hes
(AW
A of
350
or m
ore)
8.7
4.7
2.4
1.2
Ver
y S
mal
l chu
rche
s
(AW
A le
ss th
an 3
5)1.
30.
775
%
83%
Med
ium
Siz
e C
hurc
hes
(AW
A be
twee
n 10
0 an
d 34
9)3.
5
% D
iffer
ence
45%
Sm
all c
hurc
hes
(AW
A be
twee
n 35
and
99)
1.8
43%
Not
e:Pr
ogra
ms
incl
ude
clas
ses
and
othe
r act
iviti
es
CALL TO ACTION, page 77 of 248
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wer
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com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Smal
l gro
ups
Sev
eral
fact
ors
arou
nd p
rogr
ams
(cla
sses
and
gro
ups)
did
NO
T ha
ve a
si
gnifi
cant
impa
ct o
n vi
talit
yP
erce
nt o
f elig
ible
atte
ndee
s w
ho p
artic
ipat
eW
ho h
as p
rimar
y re
spon
sibi
lity
for l
eadi
ng p
rogr
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Mix
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ocal
vs.
glo
bal m
issi
on o
utre
ach
prog
ram
sN
umbe
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rogr
ams
for y
oung
adu
lts a
nd a
dults
Not
e:Pr
ogra
ms
incl
ude
clas
ses
and
othe
r act
iviti
es
CALL TO ACTION, page 78 of 248
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com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Lay
lead
ersh
ipEf
fect
iven
ess
of la
y le
ader
ship
84%
mor
e lik
ely
to b
e a
high
vita
l ch
urch
48%
mor
e lik
ely
to b
e hi
gh
atte
ndan
ce c
hurc
h
54%
mor
e lik
ely
to b
e a
high
gro
wth
ch
urch
30%
mor
e lik
ely
to b
e a
high
en
gage
men
t chu
rch
Dem
onst
rate
vita
l pe
rson
al fa
ith
Rot
ate
Mor
e at
tend
ees
serv
ing
as la
y le
ader
s
Chu
rche
s w
ith e
ffect
ive
lay
lead
ersh
ip a
re:
Wha
t driv
es la
ityEf
fect
iven
ess?
Effe
ctiv
enes
s of
lay
lead
ersh
ip h
as a
stro
ng im
pact
on
vita
lity
CALL TO ACTION, page 79 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Lay
lead
ersh
ipB
uild
ing
effe
ctiv
e la
y le
ader
ship
Hig
hly
effe
ctiv
e la
y le
ader
ship
is s
trong
ly a
ssoc
iate
d w
ith th
ose
who
de
mon
stra
te v
ital p
erso
nal f
aith
Hig
hly
Effe
ctiv
eLa
y Le
ader
ship
Inef
fect
ive
Lay
Lead
ersh
ip
Lay
lead
ersh
ip te
am d
emon
stra
te v
ital p
erso
nal f
aith
(e.g
., re
gula
r dis
cipl
ines
of p
raye
r and
Bib
le S
tudy
, reg
ular
at
tend
ance
at w
eekl
y w
orsh
ip, p
ropo
rtion
al g
ivin
g,
parti
cipa
tion
in m
issi
on o
ppor
tuni
ties,
per
sona
l fai
th-
shar
ing)
61%
12%
Rot
ate
lay
lead
ersh
ip77
%66
%
CALL TO ACTION, page 80 of 248
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wer
swat
son.
com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Nee
d to
reac
h cr
itica
l mas
s eq
ual t
o 25
–50
% o
f atte
ndee
s w
ho h
ave
serv
ed a
s le
ader
s to
cre
ate
effe
ctiv
e la
y le
ader
s an
d dr
ive
vita
lity
Lay
lead
ersh
ipB
uild
ing
effe
ctiv
e la
y le
ader
ship
Perc
ent o
f atte
ndee
s th
at h
ave
serv
ed a
s le
ader
s in
pas
t fiv
e ye
ars
21%
38%
52%
53%
0%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Less
than
5%
6-25
%26
%-5
0%O
ver 5
0%
Percent Favorable on Lay Leader Effectiveness
CALL TO ACTION, page 81 of 248
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wer
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son.
com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Lay
lead
ersh
ipB
uild
ing
effe
ctiv
e la
y le
ader
ship
Pas
tors
who
wer
e ra
ted
as e
ffect
ive
at d
evel
opin
g, c
oach
ing
and
men
torin
g la
y le
ader
s ar
e m
ore
likel
y to
hav
e hi
gh v
ital c
hurc
hes
Lead
ersh
ip A
ttrib
ute
Chu
rche
s w
ith
Hig
h Vi
talit
yC
hurc
hes
with
Lo
w V
italit
y
Focu
sing
on
deve
lopi
ng, c
oach
ing
and
men
torin
g to
ena
ble
laity
lead
ersh
ip to
impr
ove
perfo
rman
ce70
%47
%
Not
e:N
umbe
rs s
how
n re
pres
ent t
he %
of c
hurc
hes
that
are
hig
h vi
tal w
hen
the
past
or w
as ra
ted
effe
ctiv
e
CALL TO ACTION, page 82 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Wor
ship
ser
vice
Mix
of c
onte
mpo
rary
and
trad
ition
al
Hig
h vi
tal c
hurc
hes
tend
to p
rovi
de a
mix
of b
oth
tradi
tiona
l and
co
ntem
pora
ry s
ervi
ces
% o
f Chu
rche
s th
at
are
Hig
h Vi
talit
y%
of C
hurc
hes
that
ar
e Lo
w V
italit
y
Trad
ition
al S
ervi
ce O
NLY
31%
55%
Con
tem
pora
ry S
ervi
ce O
NLY
21%
15%
Trad
ition
al A
ND
Con
tem
pora
ry
Ser
vice
s43
%24
%
Nei
ther
Con
tem
pora
ry N
OR
Trad
ition
al S
ervi
ces
6%6%
CALL TO ACTION, page 83 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Wor
ship
ser
vice
Mix
of c
onte
mpo
rary
and
trad
ition
al b
y ch
urch
siz
e
% o
f Chu
rche
s th
at
are
Hig
h Vi
talit
y%
of C
hurc
hes
that
ar
e Lo
w V
italit
yLa
rger
Chu
rche
s w
ith T
radi
tiona
l AN
DC
onte
mpo
rary
S
ervi
ces
(AW
A of
350
or m
ore)
42%
(n=8
6)
4% (n=8
)M
ediu
m S
ize
Chu
rche
s w
ith T
radi
tiona
l AN
DC
onte
mpo
rary
Ser
vice
s
(AW
A be
twee
n 10
0 an
d 34
9)
22%
(n=1
25)
21%
(n=1
21)
Sm
all c
hurc
hes
with
Tra
ditio
nal A
ND
Con
tem
pora
ry
Ser
vice
s
(AW
A be
twee
n 35
and
99)
19%
(n=4
5)
29%
(n=7
0)V
ery
Sm
all c
hurc
hes
with
Tra
ditio
nal A
ND
Con
tem
pora
ry S
ervi
ces
(AW
A le
ss th
an 3
5)
16%
(n=8
)
53%
(n=2
7)
CALL TO ACTION, page 84 of 248
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wer
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Trad
ition
al w
orsh
ip s
ervi
ceB
asis
for p
reac
hing
Pre
achi
ng in
trad
ition
alw
orsh
ip s
ervi
ces
at h
igh
vita
l chu
rche
s te
nds
to b
e m
ore
topi
cal a
nd le
ss b
ased
on
the
lect
iona
ry th
an in
chu
rche
s w
ith re
lativ
ely
low
vita
lity
65%
22%
13%
Low
Vita
l Chu
rche
s
50%
37%
13%
Hig
h Vi
tal C
hurc
hes
Lect
iona
ryTo
pica
lB
lend
ed
Wha
t is
the
mak
e-up
of p
reac
hing
in y
our T
radi
tiona
lser
vice
?
CALL TO ACTION, page 85 of 248
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wer
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Wor
ship
ser
vice
Insp
iratio
nal P
reac
hing
Pas
tors
who
wer
e ra
ted
as e
ffect
ive
at in
spiri
ng th
e co
ngre
gatio
n ar
e m
ore
likel
y to
hav
e hi
gh v
ital c
hurc
hes
Lead
ersh
ip A
ttrib
ute
Chu
rche
s w
ith
Hig
h Vi
talit
yC
hurc
hes
with
Lo
w V
italit
y
Insp
iring
the
cong
rega
tion
thro
ugh
prea
chin
g81
%65
%
Not
e:N
umbe
rs s
how
n re
pres
ent t
he %
of c
hurc
hes
that
are
hig
h vi
tal w
hen
the
past
or w
as ra
ted
effe
ctiv
e
CALL TO ACTION, page 86 of 248
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wer
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Con
tem
pora
ry w
orsh
ip s
ervi
ceTy
pe o
f wor
ship
mus
ic
Hig
h vi
tal c
hurc
hes
are
mor
e lik
ely
to u
se c
onte
mpo
rary
mus
ic in
thei
r co
ntem
pora
ry s
ervi
ces
6%1%
57%
36%
0%Lo
w V
ital C
hurc
hes
2%
2%
39%
56%
1%H
igh
Vita
l Chu
rche
s
Trad
ition
alB
lend
edC
onte
mpo
rary
Wha
t typ
e of
mus
ic d
o yo
u us
e in
you
r Con
tem
pora
ryse
rvic
e?
Glo
bal
Oth
er
CALL TO ACTION, page 87 of 248
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wer
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
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use
onl
y.
Con
tem
pora
ry w
orsh
ip s
ervi
ceU
se o
f mul
ti-m
edia
Hig
h vi
tal c
hurc
hes
are
mor
e lik
ely
to u
se m
ulti-
med
ia in
thei
r con
tem
pora
ry
serv
ices
66%
34%Lo
w V
ital C
hurc
hes
86%
14%
Hig
h Vi
tal C
hurc
hes
Yes
No
Do
you
use
mul
ti-m
edia
in y
our C
onte
mpo
rary
serv
ices
?
CALL TO ACTION, page 88 of 248
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wer
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son.
com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Wor
ship
ser
vice
Sev
eral
fact
ors
arou
nd th
e w
orsh
ip s
ervi
ce d
id N
OT
have
a s
igni
fican
t im
pact
on
vita
lity
Use
of e
xper
ient
ial a
ctiv
ities
(e.g
., pr
ayer
sta
tion,
art,
stra
wpo
lls) d
urin
g th
e se
rvic
eLe
ngth
of s
erm
onM
ake-
up o
f pre
achi
ng in
Con
tem
pora
ry w
orsh
ip s
ervi
ces
Type
of m
usic
and
use
of m
ultim
edia
in T
radi
tiona
l wor
ship
ser
vice
s
CALL TO ACTION, page 89 of 248
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swat
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
orLe
ader
ship
effe
ctiv
enes
s
Ove
r 1,2
00 P
asto
rs, f
rom
all
chur
ch s
izes
acr
oss
Nor
th A
mer
ica,
wer
e as
sess
ed o
n 14
lead
ersh
ip a
ttrib
utes
Wor
king
in p
artn
ersh
ip w
ith o
ther
s (e
.g.,
lay
lead
ers,
con
greg
atio
n) to
acc
ompl
ish
goal
sR
ecog
nizi
ng, a
ddre
ssin
g, a
nd m
anag
ing
disc
ord
in a
fair
and
posi
tive
man
ner
Enc
oura
ging
and
em
pow
erin
g ot
hers
to ta
ke o
wne
rshi
pFo
cusi
ng o
n de
velo
ping
, coa
chin
g an
d m
ento
ring
to e
nabl
e La
ity le
ader
ship
to im
prov
e pe
rform
ance
Insp
iring
pas
sion
and
ent
husi
asm
in o
ther
s fo
r spi
ritua
l dev
elop
men
t, di
scip
lesh
ip, a
nd o
utre
ach
Dev
elop
ing
pers
onal
kno
wle
dge,
ski
lls, a
nd a
bilit
ies
to c
ontin
uous
ly im
prov
e an
d gr
ow o
nese
lfD
efin
ing
and
artic
ulat
es a
futu
re v
isio
n fo
r the
loca
l chu
rch
Insp
iring
con
fiden
ce a
nd tr
ust t
hrou
gh w
ords
and
dee
dsD
emon
stra
ting
effe
ctiv
e m
anag
emen
t of t
he lo
cal c
hurc
h (e
.g.,
finan
cial
, ope
ratio
nal,
staf
f)In
fluen
cing
the
actio
ns a
nd b
ehav
iors
of o
ther
s to
acc
ompl
ish
chan
ges
in th
e lo
cal c
hurc
hR
ecog
nizi
ng, u
nder
stan
ding
, and
em
path
izin
g w
ith th
e fe
elin
gs a
nd n
eeds
of o
ther
s an
d re
spon
ds
acco
rdin
gly
Pro
pellin
g th
e lo
cal c
hurc
h to
set
and
ach
ieve
sig
nific
ant g
oals
thro
ugh
effe
ctiv
e le
ader
ship
Und
erst
andi
ng a
nd le
adin
g in
the
cont
ext i
n w
hich
they
ser
veIn
spiri
ng th
e co
ngre
gatio
n th
roug
h pr
each
ing
CALL TO ACTION, page 90 of 248
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wer
swat
son.
com
©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
orLe
ader
ship
effe
ctiv
enes
s (c
ontin
ued)
Four
of t
he le
ader
ship
attr
ibut
es h
ave
a st
rong
er im
pact
on
vita
lity
than
th
e ot
hers
Lead
ersh
ip A
ttrib
ute
Chu
rche
s w
ith
Hig
h Vi
talit
yC
hurc
hes
with
Lo
w V
italit
y
Focu
sing
on
deve
lopi
ng, c
oach
ing
and
men
torin
g to
ena
ble
laity
lead
ersh
ip to
impr
ove
perfo
rman
ce70
%47
%
Influ
enci
ng th
e ac
tions
and
beh
avio
rs o
f oth
ers
to
acco
mpl
ish
chan
ges
in th
e lo
cal c
hurc
h79
%53
%
Pro
pellin
g th
e lo
cal c
hurc
h to
set
and
ach
ieve
si
gnifi
cant
goa
ls th
roug
h ef
fect
ive
lead
ersh
ip76
%51
%
Insp
iring
the
cong
rega
tion
thro
ugh
prea
chin
g81
%65
%
Not
e:N
umbe
rs s
how
n re
pres
ent t
he %
of c
hurc
hes
that
are
hig
h vi
tal w
hen
the
past
or w
as ra
ted
effe
ctiv
e
CALL TO ACTION, page 91 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
orLe
ader
ship
effe
ctiv
enes
s (c
ontin
ued)
The
four
key
lead
ersh
ip a
ttrib
utes
hav
e st
rong
er im
pact
on
som
e of
the
fact
ors
of v
italit
y th
an o
ther
s
Lead
ersh
ip A
ttrib
ute
Atte
ndan
ceFa
ctor
Gro
wth
Fact
orEn
gage
men
tFa
ctor
Focu
sing
on
deve
lopi
ng, c
oach
ing
and
men
torin
g to
en
able
laity
lead
ersh
ip to
impr
ove
perfo
rman
ce
Influ
enci
ng th
e ac
tions
and
beh
avio
rs o
f oth
ers
to
acco
mpl
ish
chan
ges
in th
e lo
cal c
hurc
h
Pro
pellin
g th
e lo
cal c
hurc
h to
set
and
ach
ieve
si
gnifi
cant
goa
ls th
roug
h ef
fect
ive
lead
ersh
ip
Insp
iring
the
cong
rega
tion
thro
ugh
prea
chin
g
Den
otes
the
varia
ble
has
a po
sitiv
e im
pact
on
the
fact
or o
f vita
lity
CALL TO ACTION, page 92 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
orLe
ngth
of a
ppoi
ntm
ent
Con
tribu
tion
of th
e P
asto
r to
vita
lity
is e
vide
nt a
fter t
hree
yea
rs
14%
11%
19%
25%
21%
36%
0%5%10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1 yr
(n=5
36)
2 yr
s (n
=545
)3-
4 yr
s (n
=857
)5-
6 yr
s (n
=480
)7-
10 y
rs (n
=495
)ov
er 1
0 yr
s (n
=242
)
Percent of High Vital Churches
Leng
th o
f Cur
rent
App
oint
men
t
NO
TE:P
atte
rns
and
findi
ngs
are
cons
iste
nt w
hen
Past
ors
who
had
sev
eral
sho
rt-te
rm a
ppoi
ntm
ents
are
incl
uded
or r
emov
ed fr
om a
naly
sis
CALL TO ACTION, page 93 of 248
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
orLe
ngth
of a
ppoi
ntm
ent (
cont
inue
d)
Pas
tor c
ontri
butio
n to
vita
lity
build
s qu
ickl
y fo
r the
eng
agem
ent p
art o
f vi
talit
y co
mpa
red
to th
e ot
her t
wo
sub-
fact
ors.
29%
18%
21%
24%
17%
17%
36%
23%
25%
35%
30%
31%
32%
25%
29%
41%
36%
46%
0%5%10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Atte
ndan
ce F
acto
rG
row
th F
acto
rEn
gage
men
t Fac
tor
1 yr
2 yr
s3-
4 yr
s5-
6 yr
s7-
10 y
rsov
er 1
0 ye
ars
Percent of High Vital Churches
CALL TO ACTION, page 94 of 248
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wer
swat
son.
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©20
10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
or
Sev
eral
fact
ors
arou
nd th
e P
asto
r did
NO
T ha
ve a
sig
nific
ant i
mpa
ct o
n vi
talit
yG
radu
atin
g fro
m s
emin
ary
or n
otY
ears
eng
aged
in p
asto
ral m
inis
tryW
heth
er p
asto
ral m
inis
try is
firs
t or s
econ
d ca
reer
CALL TO ACTION, page 95 of 248
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wer
swat
son.
com
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
or• E
xcel
lenc
e in
key
attri
bute
s
•App
oint
men
t len
gth
Wor
ship
Ser
vice
• Mix
of t
radi
tiona
lan
d co
ntem
pora
ry•S
peci
fic a
spec
ts
Smal
l Gro
ups
& P
rogr
ams
• Num
ber o
f Gro
ups
•Chi
ldre
n &
You
thP
rogr
ams
Lay
Lead
ersh
ip• E
ffect
iven
ess
•Spe
cific
pro
gram
s an
d in
volv
emen
t
Four
key
are
as a
re th
e dr
iver
s of
vita
lity
Indi
cato
rs
of V
italit
y
Not
e: S
mal
l gro
ups
= st
udy,
gro
up a
nd fe
llow
ship
CALL TO ACTION, page 96 of 248
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wer
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son.
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Driv
ing
diffe
rent
fact
ors
of v
italit
yD
river
Ove
rall
Vita
lity
Atte
ndan
ce
Fact
orG
row
th
Fact
orEn
gage
men
t Fa
ctor
Smal
l Gro
ups
Lay
Lead
ersh
ip
Mix
of T
radi
tiona
l and
Con
tem
pora
ry s
ervi
ce
Usi
ng m
ore
topi
cal p
reac
hing
in T
radi
tiona
l ser
vice
Usi
ng m
ore
cont
empo
rary
mus
ic in
Con
tem
pora
ry s
ervi
ce
Usi
ng m
ore
mul
ti-m
edia
in C
onte
mpo
rary
ser
vice
Pas
tor
Focu
sing
on
deve
lopi
ng, c
oach
ing
and
men
torin
g to
ena
ble
laity
lead
ersh
ip to
impr
ove
perfo
rman
ceIn
fluen
cing
the
actio
ns a
nd b
ehav
iors
of o
ther
s to
ac
com
plis
h ch
ange
s in
the
loca
l chu
rch
Prop
ellin
g th
e lo
cal c
hurc
h to
set
and
ach
ieve
sig
nific
ant
goal
s th
roug
h ef
fect
ive
lead
ersh
ip
Insp
iring
the
cong
rega
tion
thro
ugh
prea
chin
g
Leng
th o
f app
oint
men
t
Num
ber o
f sm
all g
roup
s
Num
ber o
f pro
gram
s fo
r chi
ldre
n
Num
ber o
f pro
gram
s fo
r you
th
Effe
ctiv
enes
s of
lay
lead
ersh
ip
Lay
lead
ersh
ip d
emon
stra
ting
vita
l per
sona
l fai
th
Rot
atin
g la
y le
ader
ship
% o
f atte
ndee
s se
rvin
g as
lead
ers
in p
ast 5
yea
rs
Wor
ship
Ser
vice
Den
otes
the
driv
er h
as a
pos
itive
impa
ct o
n th
e fa
ctor
of v
italit
yN
ote:
Smal
l gro
ups
incl
ude
stud
y, fe
llow
ship
, and
ser
vice
CALL TO ACTION, page 97 of 248
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wer
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son.
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Driv
ing
vita
lity
in d
iffer
ent t
ypes
of c
hurc
hes
In a
dditi
on to
the
four
key
driv
ers
of th
e in
dica
tors
of v
italit
y, s
ome
nuan
ces
by
chur
ch s
ize
and
juris
dict
ion
incl
ude
Nua
nces
by
size
of c
hurc
h in
clud
e:—
For l
arge
chu
rche
s (A
WA
of 3
50 o
r mor
e), b
eing
repr
esen
tativ
e of
the
com
mun
ity a
roun
d th
em a
nd h
avin
g pa
stor
s w
ho s
pend
mor
e tim
e on
pre
achi
ng, p
lann
ing
and
lead
ing
wor
ship
ha
s a
stro
ng re
latio
nshi
p w
ith v
italit
y
Nua
nces
by
juris
dict
ion
incl
ude:
—In
the
Sou
th C
entra
l and
Sou
th E
aste
rn ju
risdi
ctio
ns, t
he le
ngth
of te
nure
of t
he c
lerg
y as
pa
stor
s ha
s a
stro
ng re
latio
nshi
p w
ith v
italit
y
—In
the
Nor
th E
aste
rn ju
risdi
ctio
n, p
asto
rs s
pend
ing
mor
e tim
e on
pers
onal
dev
otio
n an
d w
orsh
ip h
as a
stro
ng re
latio
nshi
p w
ith v
italit
y
—In
the
Wes
tern
juris
dict
ion,
chu
rche
s th
at a
re re
pres
enta
tive
ofth
e co
mm
unity
aro
und
them
an
d ha
ve a
pas
tor t
hat l
eads
in th
e co
ntex
t of t
he c
omm
unity
hav
e a
high
er a
ssoc
iatio
n w
ith
vita
lity
No
varia
tions
by
pred
omin
ant e
thni
city
The
four
key
driv
ers
of th
e in
dica
tors
of v
italit
y (s
mal
l gro
ups,
lay
lead
ersh
ip, w
orsh
ip s
ervi
ce, a
nd th
e pa
stor
) are
con
sist
ent r
egar
dles
s ch
urch
siz
e, p
redo
min
ant e
thni
city
, and
juris
dict
ion
The
four
key
driv
ers
of th
e in
dica
tors
of v
italit
y (s
mal
l gro
ups,
lay
lead
ersh
ip, w
orsh
ip s
ervi
ce, a
nd th
e pa
stor
) are
con
sist
ent r
egar
dles
s ch
urch
siz
e, p
redo
min
ant e
thni
city
, and
juris
dict
ion
CALL TO ACTION, page 98 of 248
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wer
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10 T
ower
s W
atso
n. A
ll rig
hts
rese
rved
. Pro
prie
tary
and
Con
fiden
tial.
For T
ower
s W
atso
n an
d To
wer
s W
atso
n cl
ient
use
onl
y.
Past
or• E
xcel
lenc
e in
key
attri
bute
s
•App
oint
men
t len
gth
Wor
ship
Ser
vice
• Mix
of t
radi
tiona
lan
d co
ntem
pora
ry•S
peci
fic a
spec
ts
Smal
l Gro
ups
& P
rogr
ams
• Num
ber o
f Gro
ups
•Chi
ldre
n &
You
thP
rogr
ams
Lay
Lead
ersh
ip• E
ffect
iven
ess
•Spe
cific
pro
gram
s an
d in
volv
emen
t
Four
key
are
as a
re th
e dr
iver
s of
vita
lity
Indi
cato
rs
of V
italit
y
Not
e:Sm
all g
roup
s in
clud
e st
udy,
fello
wsh
ip, a
nd s
ervi
ce
CALL TO ACTION, page 99 of 248
This page is intentionally blank.
CALL TO ACTION, page 100 of 248
Appendix 2
2 Towers Watson Additional Analysis
CALL TO ACTION, page 101 of 248
Additional Analysis Q: How do we know that theological orientation of the congregation, theological orientation of the Pastor, predominant ethnicity of the congregation, and jurisdiction don’t have an impact on church vitality? A: To identify whether or not a specific factor such as theological orientation or geography (shown through jurisdiction) has an impact on vitality, we used a regression analysis to estimate the impact of these factors. This approach allows us to isolate the impact of each factor individually while controlling for the impact of other factors. In the regression analysis, none of these factors had a statistically significant impact on church vitality. This finding is very consistent with what we saw when we examined the distribution of those factors between churches with high vitality vs. churches with low vitality. Figure 1: Distribution Across Churches with High Vitality vs. Low Vitality
Theological orientation of your current congregation (pastor perception)
% of High Vitality
Churches
% of Low Vitality
Churches Very Liberal 1 1 Somewhat Liberal 6 7 Partially Liberal/ Conservative 32 37 Somewhat Conservative 43 34 Very Conservative 19 21
Theological orientation of Pastor (self-reported)
% of High Vitality
Churches
% of Low Vitality
Churches Very Liberal 9 9 Somewhat Liberal 26 18 Partially Liberal/ Conservative 30 30 Somewhat Conservative 25 28 Very Conservative 9 14
Ethnic Group
% of High Vitality
Churches
% of Low Vitality
Churches
% of UMCs in North America
Asian 0.3 1.3 1.1Black 5.6 5.9 6.9Hispanic 0.1 0.8 0.9White 94.0 92.1 90.2
Jurisdiction
% of High Vitality
Churches
% of Low Vitality
Churches
% of UMCs in North America
North Central 22 20 21Northeastern 12 12 21South Central 20 18 17Southeastern 41 45 35Western 5 4 5
Distributions based on survey responses to UMC’s CTA 2010 Research From the data shown above in Figure 1, you can see how the distribution or percentages of each of the groups are very similar regardless of whether the churches are vital or not. From this, we
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can conclude that theological orientation of the congregation, theological orientation of the Pastor, predominant ethnicity of the congregation, and jurisdiction do not have a strong correlation on whether or not a church is vital. Both of these analyses support our conclusion that these factors are not drivers of church vitality. Q: How is it that “lay leadership demonstrating vital personal faith” and “% of attendees serving as leaders in past 5 years” can be drivers of overall vitality but don’t drive any of the factors of engagement (attendance, growth, or engagement)? A: The drivers of overall vitality were shown to have a strong statistical relationship with overall vitality as defined by combination of all the indicators of vitality outlined by the CTA steering team. Each of those drivers were then also looked at to determine whether or not they had a strong statistical relationship with any of the individual factors of vitality (attendance, growth, engagement). While “lay leadership demonstrating vital personal faith” and “% of attendees serving as leaders in past 5 years” are not strong drivers of specific aspects of vitality individually, they can be expected to help enough across each of the three aspects that their aggregate impact on overall vitality is significant.
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Appendix 3
Towers Watson Project Overview Call to Action
3 Vital Congregations Research Project Overview
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Call to Action Vital Congregations Research Project Overview
The Call to Action Steering Team has engaged Towers Watson, a leading global professional services organization, to help gather objective data on what works and does not work in churches and to create a platform of common understanding of relative factors. Research Model There are many widely-recognized expressions of church vitality. This research project will not attempt to define church vitality per se, but instead mine data in order to identify the specific, measurable factors that promote vitality. The research will focus on the identification of:
• Outcome Measures—how do we recognize church vitality when we see it? • Drivers of Vitality—what factors specifically promote vitality and enable it
to flourish? Research Tools The research process will use two proven, widely used research tools: data mining and regression analysis. Data mining is the process of collecting and statistically analyzing very large amounts of quantifiable data to uncover and clarify complex relationships. Data mining is widely used in all types of research because it is objective—only quantifiable data is used to test relationships. Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to identify the impact of multiple factors on a specific desired outcome. Regression analysis shows both the direction and magnitude of any identified relationships. Research Methodology The research methodology involves two simple steps:
Step 1: Develop Hypotheses What potentially impacts vitality?
Step 2: Test Hypotheses What statistically impacts vitality?
Goal is to develop hypotheses based on the perceptions of a selected, broad
sample
Goal is to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on local church
vitality for steering team consideration
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In Phase 1 performed in February and March 2010, Towers Watson engaged in input and discovery. We conducted a number of interviews, surveys, church visits, and observations and worked with the Steering Team to develop several hypotheses that could potentially impact church vitality. We interviewed over two dozen Bishops, pastors, lay leaders, and Agency leaders, collected several hundred survey responses, and captured additional qualitative input from Conference Appointment Meetings and other meetings. We drew upon a variety of perspectives from across the organization so that the resulting hypotheses fully reflected the range of factors that possibly impact vitality. We collected sufficient information to identify common thematic areas of focus and draft specific hypotheses for vetting by the project Steering Team prior to being finalized. Towers Watson working with the Steering Team used the information gathered to identify specific Outcome Measures that reflect church vitality. While many individuals across the Church indicate that they “know church vitality when they see it,” the purpose of establishing quantitative Outcome Measures is to introduce objectivity to the understanding of what drives vitality. While the Outcome Measures do not reflect all of the many expressions of vitality, they address certain quantitative aspects where data is readily available, reliable, and valid. In Phase 2, to be performed in April and May 2010, Towers Watson will discern what the meaning of the results in Phase 1. Each hypothesis will be tested to identify relationships between factors and outcomes. We will use both data mining and regression analysis to collect and analyze very large amounts of data. Much of this data has been collected and tracked for some years by the United Methodist Church and we will augment the existing data by capturing significant additional quantitative data via organization-wide surveys. We anticipate conducting targeted follow-up interviews with a spectrum of respondents to ensure that captured data is fully understood. In the final phase, Towers Watson will prepare a findings report that details the outcomes of the statistical analysis, showing specifically which of these measurable factors drive church vitality as reflected in Outcome Measures and which do not. Recognizing that there are many expressions of church vitality, some of which are not readily measurable, the research findings will serve as only one input to decisions taken by the project Steering Team in determining the implications and significance of the drivers of church vitality.
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Appendix 4
Towers Watson Research Methodology Call to Action Vital Congregations Research Project Overview of Research Methodology
4
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Call to Action
Vital Congregations Research Project Overview of Research Methodology
The Call to Action Steering Team (hereafter the “Steering Team”) engaged Towers Watson (hereafter “TW)”, a leading global professional services organization with 14,000 associates in 34 countries, to conduct empirical research to determine factors that affect church vitality. This paper provides an overview of the research methodology. Research Approach The research approach is based on the standard research methodology of data mining. Data mining is the process of collecting and statistically analyzing very large amounts of data to uncover and clarify complex relationships. Data mining is widely used in all types of research, such as public health and marketing studies, because it is objective and reliable. When large quantities of data are available across many units of observations, such as churches, data mining can be used to identify strong existing statistical relationships between the desired state and other factors that impact that desired state. As shown in Figure 1, the Vital Congregations Research Project used data mining to identify the factors that impact an outcome measure of church vitality.
The factors that indirectly influence
the desired state
Drivers of Vitality
Organizational Factors
Local Church Vitality
Outcome Measures
The factors that directly
impact the desired state
How to measure theachievement of the
desired state
Focus of Data Mining Portion of CTA
Research
Figure 1
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The data mining process used regression analysis, a long-established statistical technique used to identify the impact of multiple factors on a specific desired outcome. Regression analysis shows both the direction and magnitude of any identified relationships:
• Direction – does this factor have a positive or negative impact on the desired outcome? In this research, does the factor have a statistically significant positive or negative impact on congregational vitality?
• Magnitude – how much impact does this factor have on the desired
outcome? In this research, is the factor of major or minimal significance in driving church vitality?
Regression analysis is commonly used in consumer, employee and political research to help identify and prioritize actions that will have the greatest impact on a desired outcome. In the Vital Congregations research project, regression analysis was used to statistically identify the significant factors that impact the desired outcome – indicators of church vitality. Church Vitality
The first step in the data mining process is to identify the desired outcomes to be measured through the research. For the CTA project the aim was to measure relative levels of congregational vitality – the extent to which a local congregation is effectively pursuing the mission of making disciples of Jesus Christ for the transformation of the world. The question was this: in addition to the informed observations and opinions of various lay, clergy and academic observers, how can we measure levels of vitality in statistically valid and reliable ways?
To do so requires defining the desired outcomes in a manner that can be tabulated using valid, reliable, and objective quantitative measues that are reasonable signs of congregational effectivness. There are many other meaningful, though subjective ways to assess the impact of a church on the faith development of those involved and as demonstrated in vibrant witness in the community and world, but for this project we focused on the subset of indicators that are statistically verifiable.
Working with the Call to Action Steering Team, Towers Watson used a combination of surveys, interviews, church visits, and analysis of available data to identify potential indicators of vitality. As expected in a system as large and complex as the UMC, there were a range of working defintions for what should and does constitute the evidence of congregational vitality, many of which cannot be measured directly using objective observable metrics. The Steering Team
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and Towers Watson used the input from an array of people across all levels of the church to identify a cluster of indicators. In order to be used as an indicator of church vitality, a measure had to meet these criteria:
• Descriptive – the measures had to provide graphic illustrations of an aspect of church life, leadership or processes that people recognize as important and understand.
• Differentiating – the measures used had to be more common in churches with high vitality than in churches with low vitality.
• Quantifiable – the measures used had to be something that can be objectively measured, rather than subjectively assesed. Objective, quantifiable measures avoid the risk of biases that are likely when using subjective measures.
• Available – the measures must have available data for at least three - five years across 95% of all UMC North American churches. There were many metrics that otherwise could have been useful indications of vitality, but they are either based on information that is not collected on a consistent basis across the five jurisdictions or have not been collected over a long enough period of time to allow sufficient time to establish trends.
Applying these criteria, a cluster of seven valid indicators emerged:
• Average worship attendance as a percentage of membership • Total membership • Number of children, youth, and young adults attending as a percentage of
membership • Number of professions of faith as a percentage of attendance • Number of professions of faith as a percentage of membership • Annual giving per attendee • Financial benevolence beyond the local church as a percentage of the
church’s budget
TW used these measures both at a single point in time and examined the trends in these measures over a multiple year period.
To some extent this constellation of indicators of vitality are proxies or stand-ins. For example, average worship attendance as a percentage of membership, or changes in financial benevolence giving beyond the local church are the consequences of vitality and show increases or decreases in how each church is performing in the work of “making disciples” and engaging disciples in transforming the world.
With the assistance of GCFA, Towers Watson was provided with a five year history on each of these indicators for over 32,000 churches in North America. For each church TW applied these measures both at a single point in
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time and over a multiple year period, developing a vitality distribution table of nearly all churches in the five jurisdictions. To assure confidentiality and avoid seeming to grade individual churches, TW has kept the vitality index of each church strictly private.
TW used another statistical technique, factor analysis, to group these indicators of Church Vitality into three factors that encompass different aspects of church vitality. Identifying these factors can help the UMC better understand how to impact different aspects of church vitality. The factors are: attendance, growth, and engagement.
Factor Indicators of Vitality
Attendance • Average worship attendance as percentage of
membership • Number of children, youth, and young adults attending
as a percentage of membership
Growth
• Change in average worship attendance as percentage of membership over five years
• Change in membership over five years • Change in annual giving per attendee over three years • Change in financial benevolence beyond the local
church as a percentage of church budget over five years
Engagement • Professions of faith per attendance • Annual giving per member
To address the multiple dynamics of congregational vitality the indicators are collective, not singular (like vital signs for a person’s health). TW analyzed multiple years of available data on these indicators from nearly all North American UMC churches to identify the distribution of relative vitality. We found that approximately 15% of the 32,228 churches (a total of 4,961) met this threshold – many of these demonstrated excellence in all three factors of vitality. Identifying the Drivers of Vitality: Research Methodology Simply put, the research methodology involved two steps (as shown in Figure 2):
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Goal is to develop hypotheses based on the perceptions of a selected,
broad sample
Goal is to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on local church
vitality for steering team consideration Figure 2
Step 2: Test Hypotheses What statistically impacts vitality?
Step 1: Develop Hypotheses What potentially impacts vitality?
In Step 1, performed in February and March 2010, TW cast a very broad net to identify factors that could potentially be drivers of church vitality. TW gathered a significant amount of qualitative data via surveys, interviews, observations, church visits, and other exercises - e.g., interviews with over two dozen pastors, lay leaders, Bishops, and Agency leaders; several hundred survey responses; input from Conference Appointment Meetings and other meetings. They sought to capture and draw upon a variety of perspectives from across the UMC so that the resulting hypotheses would fully reflect the range of factors that possibly impact vitality - reflecting churches from very small to very large, urban, rural, suburban, conservative, progressive, ethnic minority, etc. TW collected sufficient information to identify common thematic areas of focus and worked very intensely with the Steering Team at its meeting on April 7 & 8. Several hundred hypothesis were examined and 130 were identified to be tested (e.g., age of the church, number of programs designed for youth, type of music used in worship services). In Step 2, TW tested each hypothesis to identify relationships between factors and outcomes. Much of the data has been collected and tracked for some years by the UMC but we supplemented the existing data by capturing significant additional quantitative data via several different types of organization-wide surveys. This data was collected from a representative sample of Churches, Pastors, District Superintendents and Bishops – providing data on the dynamics at thousands of churches. In traditional polling exercises that are reported in the media, sample sizes of approximately 500 people are often used – producing findings that are statistically reliable within a margin of error of plus or minus 4% to 5%. The much larger, fully representative sample of churches on which data was collected for this project allowed us to produce statistically reliable findings within a much smaller margin of error. TW used regression and another statistical technique, ANOVA (analysis of variance) to identify, for all of the churches, which of the drivers had a statistically
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significant impact on the indicators of Church Vitality. In these processes, each factor is independently tested, holding all of the other factors constant, to determine if it has an impact and if so, the extent to which it has a neutral, positive or negative impact on vitality. In this way, we identified for the Steering Team the specific drivers of vitality statistically associated with the 16% of UMC churches that were identified as highly vital churches. Again, for appropriate purposes of confidentiality, TW is holding the results for each church, sharing only the aggregate results with the Steering Team. The analysis identified four areas described in more detail in the Steering Team report: Small Groups and Programs, Worship, Lay Leadership and Pastoral Leadership. These areas were not just related to the vitality of a single church or a handful of churches. These areas were found to have a strong, positive impact on the Indicators of Church Vitality across thousands of churches. There are examples of churches with high vitality that have been successful in each of these areas in every district in North America, in larger churches, in smaller churches, in predominantly minority churches in churches in urban communities and in churches in suburban or rural communities. The findings are also mutually reinforcing. Improvements in any one area are likely to contribute to improvements in the other three.
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Appendix 5
Towers Watson
5
Potential Drivers of Congregational Vitality The United Methodist Church Potential Drivers of Congregational Vitality
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The United Methodist ChurchPotential Drivers of Congregational Vitality
Hypothesis Topic Potential Driver1 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Works in partnership with others (e.g., lay leaders,
congregation) to accomplish goals2 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Recognizes, addresses, and manages discord in a
fair and positive manner3 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Encourages involvement and empowers others to
take ownership4 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Focuses on developing, coaching and mentoring
to enable Laity leadership to improve performance and to reach their full potential
5 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Inspires passion and enthusiasm in others for spiritual development, discipleship, and outreach
6 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Focuses on developing personal knowledge, skills, and abilities to continuously improve and grow oneself
7 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Defines and articulates a future vision for the local church
8 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Inspires confidence and trust through words and deeds
9 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Demonstrates effective management of the local church (e.g., financial, operational, staff)
10 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Has ability to influence the actions and behaviors of others to accomplish changes in the local church
11 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Recognizes, understands, and empathizes with the feelings and needs of others and responds accordingly
12 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Through effective leadership, propels the local church to set and achieve significant goals
13 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Understands and leads in the context in which they serve
14 Pastor leadership How would you rate Pastor XYZ: Inspires congregation through preaching15 Pastor leadership Does local church have a formal, written mission and vision that has been reviewed
in the last five years16 Pastor demographics Pastor age17 Pastor demographics Pastor seminary school18 Pastor demographics Tenure in current appointment19 Pastor demographics Years since first appointment20 Pastor demographics Number of appointments since seminary school21 Pastor demographics First or second career ministry22 Pastor demographics Level of Connection the Pastor has to the overall Church23 Pastor demographics Rate the general orientation of the Pastor from liberal to conservative24 Pastor demographics Level of involvement in local community beyond church25 Pastor demographics How Pastors spend their time (% of time across categories in a typical week)26 Laity leadership Number of lay leaders in all Sunday church school groups27 Laity leadership Number of lay leaders in all other groups28 Laity leadership % of lay leaders who participate in continuing education programs offered through
the Church29 Laity leadership % of lay leader positions filled by young adults30 Laity leadership % of lay leader positions filled by members with less than three years of tenure31 Laity leadership % of attendees who currently serve as lay leaders32 Laity leadership % of attendees who have served as lay leaders in the last five years33 Laity leadership Age make-up of lay leaders (%ages by age brackets)34 Laity leadership Effectiveness of lay leaders in driving vitality in the local church35 Laity leadership How are lay leaders selected for their leadership roles36 Diversity To what extent does the demographic mix of your attendees reflect the
demographic mix of the community
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The United Methodist ChurchPotential Drivers of Congregational Vitality
Hypothesis Topic Potential Driver37 Diversity Rate the general orientation of the congregation from liberal to conservative38 Diversity Percentage of attendees (not members) who are NOT from a UMC background39 Diversity To what extent is your church using and analyzing demographic data to shape the
local church mission and outreach40 Church demographics Age of the physical church41 Church demographics Year when the local church was founded42 Church demographics Has the church moved or combined with another UMC church in past 10 years43 Church demographics Neighborhood category (e.g., rural, urban, suburban)44 Church demographics Average household income of zip code45 Church demographics Years since last remodel46 Church demographics Number of UMC churches in a 10 mile radius47 Church demographics Number of non-UMC churches in a 10 mile radius48 Church demographics Perceived change in community population (increased, decreased, stayed the
same)49 Church demographics Perceived changes in community income (increased, decreased, stayed the same)
50 Church demographics Attendance as a percentage of seating capacity in local church51 Church demographics Allocation of financials52 Church demographics Number of pledges and identified givers53 Church demographics Income sources54 Christian Education Christian Education program attendance as a percentage of worship attendance55 Christian Education Number of children (0-6th grade) in all Sunday church school groups56 Christian Education Number of children (0-6th grade) in all other groups57 Christian Education Number of children (0-6th grade) in alternative Christian Education church school
groups58 Christian Education Number of youths (7-12th grade) in all Christian Education church school groups
NOTE: team wants "Christian Ed" substituted for Sunday church school, but need final wording to come from LCR
59 Christian Education Number of youths (7-12th grade) in all other groups60 Christian Education Number of youths (7-12th grade) in alternative Christian Education church school
groups61 Christian Education % of youth (7-12th grade) (member or non-member) participating in confirmation
preparation classes62 Children's Programs Number of children programs63 Children's Programs % of children (member or non-member) actively participating in programs NOTE: if
percentage, we want to compare to total church attendance64 Children's Programs Responsibility for childrens programs (senior Pastor vs. associate Pastor vs. Staff
vs. unpaid laity) 65 Children's Programs Number of local mission outreach programs designed for children to participate in
themselves66 Children's Programs Number of global mission outreach programs designed for children to participate in
themselves (may be doing work, not physically going overseas themselves)
67 Youth Programs Number of youth programs68 Youth Programs % of youth (member or non-member) actively participating in programs69 Youth Programs Responsibility for youth programs (senior Pastor vs. associate Pastor vs. Staff vs.
unpaid laity) 70 Youth Programs Number of local mission outreach programs designed for youth to participate in
themselvers 71 Youth Programs Number of global mission outreach programs designed for youth to participate in
themselves (the idea is that they can do work, not necessarily go overseas)72 Youth Programs % of youth attendees whose parents are not members of the local church73 Young Adult Programs Number of young adult programs
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The United Methodist ChurchPotential Drivers of Congregational Vitality
Hypothesis Topic Potential Driver74 Young Adult Programs % of young adult (member or non-member) actively participating in programs75 Young Adult Programs Responsibility for young adult programs (senior Pastor vs. associate Pastor vs. Staff
vs. unpaid laity) 76 Young Adult Programs Number of local mission outreach programs designed for young adults to participate
in themselvers77 Young Adult Programs Number of global mission outreach programs designed for young adults to
participate in themselves78 Adult Programs Number of adult programs79 Adult Programs % of adults (member or non-member) actively participating in programs80 Adult Programs Responsibility for adult programs (senior Pastor vs. associate Pastor vs. Staff vs.
unpaid laity) 81 Adult Programs Number of local mission outreach programs designed for adults to participate in
themselves82 Adult Programs Number of global mission outreach programs designed for adults to participate in
themselves83 Committed Congregation How engaged is the congregation in living the mission and vision of the local church
84 Group Ministries Number of small groups (study, fellowship, service)?85 Group Ministries Average number of participants in group ministries 86 Group Ministries % of attendees serving or having served as group ministry leaders during past three
years87 Group Ministries % of non-members participating in small groups 88 Evangelism Number of evangelism outreach ministries excluding weekly worship services89 Evangelism % of attendees participating in evangelism ministries excluding weekly worship
services90 New Members Do you have a new member class offered regularly?91 New Members Percent of members who joined within past year who are members of small group
ministries 92 Welcoming Visitors Established process for welcoming visitors (e.g., designated members to spot and
welcome new members)93 Welcoming Visitors What percentage of first-time guests eventually become members?94 Welcoming Visitors Adequate parking95 Local community outreach Number of new local outreach programs created in the last year96 Worship services Predominant type of music used in the worship97 Worship services Variation of worship from week to week 98 Worship services Average attendees per service by service style99 Worship services Number and type of different services held weekly
100 Worship services Regular use of multi-media format during worship 101 Worship services Regular use of experiential activities during worship (e.g., prayer station, art, straw
polls) 102 Worship services Average length of sermon103 Worship services Percentage of service led by laity, youth, and young adults and children104 Worship services Percentage of preaching by type: lectionary, expository, blended105 Worship services Type of sermon (Inspirational vs. Teaching/Learning vs. Biblical interpretation)106 District % of time (per year) spent with thriving churches107 District % of time (per year) spent with failing churches108 District % of time (per year) spent developing new churches109 District Number of churches in the District110 District Number of new churches started in the District within the last two years111 District % of time spent coaching Pastors on leadership skills and achieving goals112 District Use of formal goal-setting for Pastors113 District Use of formal performance reviews throughout the year with Pastors114 District Use of formal performance evaluation with Pastors
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The United Methodist ChurchPotential Drivers of Congregational Vitality
Hypothesis Topic Potential Driver115 Bishop If a conference-wide performance evaluation exists, to what extent is it formally
used in the appointment process116 Bishop Holding Pastors accountable for performance117 Bishop % of time (per year) providing coaching and support118 Bishop What programs are used in the Conference to promote vitality? (multiple choice -
UMC Training, Non-UMC Training, Coaching, church clusters, etc.)119 Bishop Percent of Pastors who participate in continuing education programs available
through the Conference120 Bishop % of Pastors appointed during three year provisional period121 Bishop # of Pastors on clergy effectiveness performance plans122 Bishop # of Pastors exited through clergy effectiveness (not retirement)123 Bishop Effectiveness of the DS team in coaching and developing Pastors124 Church Connection Number of special communications, events, sermons per year addressing the
connection-wide events125 Church Connection % of apportionment paid over last three years126 Church Connection Number of UMC connectional speakers who visit and present at worship or small
group ministries per year127 Church Connection Percent members/regular attendees participating in District or Conference activities
or on committees, task groups, boards
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Appendix 6
Towers Watson
6
Survey Methodology Call to Action—Research Project Survey Methodology Summary
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CALL TO ACTION PROJECT
Background Information
Towers Watson Research
In the first phase of our Call to Action Research, we conducted a number of interviews, facilitated discussions, and created a brief online survey to gather people’s perceptions of what vitality in congregations is and what are the factors that drive it. That first phase of the research was designed to reveal people’s perceptions in order to develop hypotheses on what they thought drives church vitality. Now that this phase is complete, we are moving on to the second phase of the research, which focuses on using data, not people’s perceptions, to help us better understand what drives church vitality. This second phase of the project relies heavily on data that already exists across the UMC but there is also data that we need that hasn’t been regularly collected. For that reason, we are conducting a number of online surveys designed to gather more quantitative data to test the hypotheses developed in the first phase of this project. Below is a summary of the surveys that we are using.
Summary of Surveys Bishop Survey This online survey will be completed by all active Bishops in North America and contains less than 10 questions, all focused on their annual conferences. • The Bishops will receive an e-mail from Bishop Gregory Palmer, President of the Council of
Bishops, with information about the survey and a link to the online survey. • Bishops will have two weeks to complete the online survey and it should take less than 5 minutes to
complete. District Superintendent Survey This online survey will be completed by all District Superintendents in North America and contains questions about their districts as well as questions about the pastors within the district. When responding to the questions about pastors, a sample of no more than 10 pastors will be selected for each district superintendent to assess. • All district superintendents in North America will receive a “heads up” e-mail from Bishop Gregory
Palmer with information on the survey and when to expect it. • Following Bishop Palmer’s e-mail, all district superintendents will receive an e-mail from Towers
Watson with a link to the online survey. • District Superintendents will have two weeks to complete the online survey. Pastor Survey Approximately 25% of all UMC churches were randomly selected to participate in this research. For each one of those churches, the Lead/Senior Pastor will be asked to complete an online survey asking questions about themselves as well as his or her congregation. • Lead/Senior Pastors at approximately 25% of churches will receive an e-mail from Towers Watson
with a link to the online survey. o If the link is sent to someone other than the Lead/Senior Pastor, the instructions are to
forward the survey to the Lead/Senior Pastor. • Lead/Senior Pastors will have two weeks to complete the online survey.
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Call To Action – Research Project Survey Methodology Summary
Church Survey For the 25% of churches that are sampled for this research, another survey is designed to gather data about the church itself. Pastors can complete this survey themselves or they can send it along to another leader in their church. • The link to the Church Survey will be included in the e-mail from Towers Watson to Pastors. • Pastors will have the option to complete the Church Survey themselves or send the link to another
key leader, paid or volunteer, in their church. • Pastors or their delegates will have two weeks to complete the online survey. Staff Parish Relations Chair Survey For the 25% of churches that are sampled for this research, another survey is designed for the Chair of the Staff Parish Relations Committee to provide their assessment of the Lead/Senior Pastor. The link to this online survey will be sent to the district superintendent, who will e-mail it to the Chair of the Staff Parish Relations Committee. • A link to the Staff Parish Relations Committee Survey will be sent in an e-mail from Towers Watson
to District Superintendents along with a list of the churches in their District that are part of the sample.
• District Superintendents will send the link to the online survey to the Chair of the Staff Parish Relations Committee in the churches that have been sampled.
• The Chair of the Staff Parish Relations Committee will have two weeks to complete the online survey.
Church Leaders Survey It’s important that we get perspectives from across UMC so an online survey with questions about the church will be available on the UMC website. • A link to the Church Leaders Survey will be available at www.umc.org/calltoaction. • Individuals who do not receive a survey directly from Towers Watson or Bishop Palmer can
complete this survey. • The survey will be available on the website for two weeks.
Summary of Roles Bishop’s Role
Complete the Bishop Survey by clicking on the link provided in Bishop Palmer’s e-mail. Encourage participation of the District Superintendents and Pastors in the other surveys that are
part of the CTA Research project. District Superintendent’s Role
Complete the District Superintendent Survey by clicking on the link provided in the e-mail from Towers Watson.
Encourage participation of the Pastors and other church leaders in the other surveys that are part of the CTA Research project.
Send the link to the Chair of the Staff Parish Relations Committee survey (from Towers Watson) to those churches that are part of the sample.
Pastor’s Role
Complete the Pastor Survey by clicking on the link provided in the e-mail from Towers Watson. Encourage participation of the Pastors and other church leaders in the other surveys that are part of
the CTA Research project. Either complete the Church Survey (via second link in e-mail from Towers Watson) or forward it on
to another leader in the Church.
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