toys and games: global trends, developments and prospects
TRANSCRIPT
© Euromonitor International
1 TOYS AND GAMES
HONG KONG TOYS & GAMES FAIR TOYS AND GAMES: GLOBAL TRENDS, DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS
JANUARY 2015
UTKU TANSEL, HEAD OF TOYS AND GAMES
© Euromonitor International
2 TOYS AND GAMES
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS
OUTLOOK
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY
GEOGRAPHY
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
KEY INSIGHTS
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
3 TOYS AND GAMES
Which Countries Have the Highest-Spending Middle Class Households?
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK
© Euromonitor International
4 TOYS AND GAMES
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Dis
cre
tion
ary
Sp
en
d a
s a
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f
Con
su
me
r E
xp
en
ditu
re (
%)
China India Russia Brazil
BRIC as Large Consumer Markets with Rising Discretionary Spending
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK
Note: Discretionary spending is spending on all items other than food, non-alcoholic beverages and housing
Discretionary Spend as a Proportion of
Consumer Expenditure in BRIC: 2005 – 2030, %
Growing middle class and rising disposable income
© Euromonitor International
5 TOYS AND GAMES
India to Replace China as World’s Largest Population
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK
© Euromonitor International
6 TOYS AND GAMES
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS OUTLOOK
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY
GEOGRAPHY
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
KEY INSIGHTS
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
7 TOYS AND GAMES
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% g
row
th,
co
nsta
nt
US
$ b
illio
n (
RS
P)
Global Toys and Games Sales 2008-2018, Rsp
Size Growth
Accelerating Global Growth
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY
Forecast
© Euromonitor International
8 TOYS AND GAMES
Asia Pacific Set to Become World’s Largest Traditional Toys Market
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Va
lue
Sa
les, U
S$
mill
ion
Western Europe North America Asia Pacific Latin America
Traditional Toys and Games Value Sales, Rsp, Largest Regions
© Euromonitor International
9 TOYS AND GAMES
North America: Flat Sales in World’s Largest Toys Region
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gro
wth
(%
)
North America Toys and Games Growth, 2008 – 2013, Rsp,%
Traditional Toys and Games Video Games 0 5 10 15 20
Dolls &Accessories
Games &Puzzles
Pre-School(3-4 Year Old)
Scientific/EducationalToys
Action Figures &Accessories
Arts & Crafts
ConstructionToys
Growth (%)
US Traditional Toys and Games,
Top Performing Categories, 2013 - 2018, Rsp, %
$306m
$146m
$80m
$32m
$107m
$98m
$124m
© Euromonitor International
10 TOYS AND GAMES
Latin America: Still Rocks
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gro
wth
(%
)
Va
lue
Sa
les, U
S$
mill
ion
Latin America Traditional Toys and Games Value
Sales and Growth, Rsp
862
2,860
3,967
5,696
Latin America Toys and Games Value Sales by Country, 2013, US$ million, Rsp
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other LatinAmerica
© Euromonitor International
11 TOYS AND GAMES
-20
-10
0
10
20Baby
Infant
Pre-School
Action Figures& Access.
Arts & Crafts
Construction
Dolls & Access.
Dressing-Up & RolePlay
Games & Puzzles
Model Vehicles
Outdoor & Sports
Plush
Radio/RemoteControl
Ride-On Vehicles
Scientific/Educational
Other Traditional TG
Eastern Europe: Russia Continues to Dominate Sales
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY
Russia Traditional Toys and Games 2013,
% Growth, Rsp
504
1,046
239
3,147
1,055
Eastern Europe TG Sales by Country, US$ million, 2013
Ukraine
Poland
Romania
Russia
$335m
$275m
0 5 10 15
Traditional Toysand Games
Video Games
Russia Toys and Games Growth, %, Rsp
2013 to 2018 CAGR 2013
© Euromonitor International
12 TOYS AND GAMES
Western Europe: Stagnates, Turkey Shines
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHY
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Gro
wth
(%
)
US
$ m
illio
n
Western Europe Traditional Toys and Games
Sales and Growth, 2013, Rsp
Turkey Spain
UK
France
Germany
Italy
Sweden
NL
CH
© Euromonitor International
13 TOYS AND GAMES
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS
OUTLOOK
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY
GEOGRAPHY
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
KEY INSIGHTS
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
14 TOYS AND GAMES
Arts and Crafts
Action Figures and Accessories
Scientific/Educational
Construction
Dolls and Accessories
Games and Puzzles
Infant Toys (19-36 Months)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
20
13
G
row
th,
Rsp
, %
2013 – 2018 CAGR, %
World Traditional Toys and Games Value Sales , Selected Categories
Construction and Dolls to Drive Growth in Absolute Terms
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
Note: Bubble size represents value sales RSP, from US$2.7 billion to 9.9 billion
© Euromonitor International
15 TOYS AND GAMES
Kids’ Tablets: One of the Most Dynamic in New Product Developments
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
16 TOYS AND GAMES
Blurring Boundaries Between Platforms
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
17 TOYS AND GAMES
Cross Platform Collaborations Are on the Rise
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
18 TOYS AND GAMES
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS
OUTLOOK
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY
GEOGRAPHY
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
KEY INSIGHTS
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
19 TOYS AND GAMES
Toys Very Licence Driven…
KEY INSIGHTS
© Euromonitor International
20 TOYS AND GAMES
…Especially Action Figures
KEY INSIGHTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Action Figures andAccessories
Dolls and Accessories Model Vehicles Plush Toys
%
Russia Turkey Japan UK
Penetration of Licensed Toys, Selected Categories, 2013, %, RSP
© Euromonitor International
21 TOYS AND GAMES
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US
$ m
illio
n
% y
-on
-y g
row
th
Video Games Hardware Video Games Software Digital Gaming
Video Games Hardware Packaged video games software Digital gaming
KEY INSIGHTS
Video Games: Where is The Console Cycle?
World Static and Hand-held Consoles Value Growth (% Rsp)
© Euromonitor International
22 TOYS AND GAMES
Global Mobile Phones Volume Sales, ‘000 units Global Laptops vs Tablets Volume Sales, ‘000 units
Phenomenal Growth in Smartphones & Tablets Stimulate Digital Gaming
KEY INSIGHTS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mill
ion
Un
its
Laptops Tablets
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Mill
ion
U
nits
Feature Phones Smartphones
© Euromonitor International
23 TOYS AND GAMES KEY INSIGHTS
Video Games: Key Developments
Console Wars
Asia: Trend Towards
Subscription Model
Enter the Matrix: Virtual Reality Arrives
© Euromonitor International
24 TOYS AND GAMES
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICS
OUTLOOK
TOYS AND GAMES PERFORMANCE BY
GEOGRAPHY
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
KEY INSIGHTS
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
25 TOYS AND GAMES
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Argentina
Brazil
Turkey
US
Germany
Malaysia
Italy
Hong Kong
Poland
Taiwan
Ukraine
South Africa
Sweden
2008 2013
Traditional Toys Stores: Most are Declining/Static But Still Important
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
Toy Sales Through Traditional Toy Stores, %, Rsp, Selected Markets
© Euromonitor International
26 TOYS AND GAMES
Grocery Continues to Muscles in Traditional Toys and Games
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
© Euromonitor International
27 TOYS AND GAMES
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020
Half of Internet Users Will be in Asia by 2020
Western Europe North America
Middle East and Africa Latin America
Eastern Europe Australasia
Asia Pacific
Internet Sales Reach New Heights
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
% of Traditional Toys Sold Through
Internet, Selected Markets
0 5 10 15 20 25
China
India
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Russia
Brazil
US
France
Germany
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
UK
% (RSP)
2013 2008
© Euromonitor International
28 TOYS AND GAMES
Video Games Distribution: Internet Gains Media Products Stores Suffer
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sh
are
(%
)
Share of Media Products Stores in Video Games Value Sales, %, Rsp
Brazil
Japan
Spain
United Kingdom
Russia
South Korea
© Euromonitor International
29 TOYS AND GAMES
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
Utku Tansel – [email protected]