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by Ryan Ritz & Mark Ketzner

Passionate about horseracing but frustrated with betting the track favorite for little or no return? Fortu-nately, you are not alone. Thanks to business partners Ryan Ritz and Mark Ketzner, you can impress your friends and family at the track by implementing their brilliant horse racing handicapping system, aptly named Be The Smart Money (BTSM). In his own words, Ryan explains how he and Mark cre-ated the most advanced handicapping system on the market, driven by a mutual love for horseracing.

HANDICAPPINGPROlike a

A HANdICAPPER IS bORN: RyAN RITz

The evolution of my love for horseracing began with my father. Growing up on long island, he read the race results in every news-paper as his mother explained their meaning—a handicapper was born. Pen to paper, he tracked results and attempted to find trends. He quickly learned handicapping wives tales: “never bet on a horse that just broke its maiden,” “gray horse on a gray day,” “lone early speed kills…” A natural mind for math, he was accepted to MIT at the age of sixteen. His first order of business – develop a handicap-ping ‘cheat sheet’ for nearby Suffolk Downs and use the MIT logo to sell them, with a money back guarantee. His second order of business

– promise the Dean he would never sell another “MIT” cheat sheet, money back guarantee or not!

Needless to say, this passion for horseracing became something we shared during my youth. When I was seven years old, my father started taking me to the racetrack, lying about my age to admission attendants from Baltimore to Boston. As I grew older, we continued this tradition. We spent days (and nights) at the track, pouring over racing forms and watching others win; there was so much data and so many factors, that I struggled to figure it all out. I would try to whittle down the field to three or four horses where their most recent works were all good, they had similar speed figures, weren’t jumping in class,

GET SMART. bE SMART. bET SMART. AT THE APRIL KEENELANd MEET

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were familiar with the track, were trained by reputable trainers…the data never seemed to end. Then I would watch, as loud-talking, cigar-smoking, high-fiving blokes stood around with winning tickets chirping off things like, “I knew the chalk wouldn’t win with those front wraps,” as their winning streak continued to the next race on a 10-1 with front wraps.

Fortunately, my education and experience in statistics told me there had to be a better way. Armed with a love for the track, loads of historical data, fast computers, and a gen-eral disdain for the “winners” around me, I began developing Be The Smart Money (aka BTSM).

With BTSM, the goal is to take all the information in the racing forms as well as other pieces of data and boil this down to produce an unbiased odds sys-tem. Given last minute jockey changes, weight changes, scratches, and trying to juggle that for three or more races in exotic wagering – I knew there had to be a better way of combining every significant element into a robust, holistic odds system. The rac-ing form has tons of data, so why not create a group of algorithms that account for all of that data including outside factors? That is exactly what we did with BTSM.

LAuNCH PAd: KEENELANd

Keeneland is absolutely the best track in the country—beautiful grounds, beautiful people, and beautiful tradition = perfection. Every April and October, my now business partner, Mark Ketzner, and I would make a “boys trip” to Keeneland from Charlotte, NC. As a for-mer Louisville Riverfrog minor league hockey player, Mark insisted Kentucky can bring the party any time of day. So doing it right, we would arrive early to tailgate and socialize, my heartbeat escalating as the 1:05 post time neared. The first year I tried the system, I had all Keeneland’s Polytrack data secured. I was ready to test it. Mark “broke his maiden” the first time he tried my system. Never having bet on horses in his life, he was cashing tickets and was hooked.

Originally, my system was not for sale – it was merely a hobby to feed my ego, to prove that I could be smarter than most of the money at the track. It was also to relieve myself of the time demands of pouring through the racing program. Though I enjoy betting the pick 3, hand-icapping three races worth of horses is time consuming. Instead, with my Smart Sheets, I could hang out, drink a few beverages, chat with the bartenders, Tim and Percy, and not worry about handicapping anymore. My Smart Sheets actually highlighted the horses for me to include in my wagers while people around me, reading through the program, watching the horses in the paddock, or listening to “Pro” handicappers on TVG were all just playing catch-up.

I would watch the live-odds board like a stockbroker finding the under-valued, under-bet stock looking for the 10:1 horse that I have

at 5:1. On the other hand, it isn’t too difficult to find the favorite; it is usually listed in the program, picked by handicappers, and has the lowest odds on the board. It’s hard to go against the over-bet favor-ite but there is no better feeling than betting against the favorite (the chalk) and being right. Particularly when the cutest girl in the room asks you how to bet the next race because, “you seem to know what you’re doing,” as her eyes widen and she smiles at you.

PRINTING MONEy

As the years passed, Mark and I showed up every April and October perfecting the system, add-ing new algorithms, and bringing more friends to show off the BTSM system – they were the first test market. If it wasn’t enough to show my friends the mecca of hedonism with a renais-sance twist that is Keeneland, we would more often than not pay for our trips with Be The Smart Money tips.

While I never planned to retire from my day job to run numbers at the track, Mark saw how much our other friends loved the sys-tem. Mark and I had been business partners in the banking industry first; I ran numbers and he did marketing. He is competitive by nature, understands numbers and likes to gamble – on anything. He understood

the predictive modeling and my theory behind BTSM, but he also understood the power of sales and marketing. This, combined with his entrepreneurial spirit, guaranteed we could sell BTSM – just like I had guaranteed him winners at the track. He saw the potential and with a sky’s-the-limit attitude, his enthusiasm was infectious. Naturally he took his place as the voice, the salesman, and the marketing rep for BTSM.

Despite our excitement, launching this system brought two prob-lems to the mix: one, rolling out to other tracks and two, gaining market trust. As to the first, I certainly wanted to focus on tracks with national appeal – more appeal means a bigger audience and therefore more gamblers. So I tackled more than twenty years of racing data and performance at Gulfstream Park, Del Mar, Churchill Downs, and Saratoga. I found significant differences in how the public bets these tracks and where the betting edge existed at different tracks. Without sharing too much of the secret sauce, I can tell you that combining data from different tracks is the worst thing you can do from a handi-capping perspective. For example, trainers and jockeys have edges at certain tracks. You may know jockeys and trainers that have that edge at Keeneland, but when you follow them to another track, it seems to disappear. BTSM Smart Sheets account for these track biases.

To gain market trust, I wanted to change the future of horse betting and be different than all the other online tip sheets and handicap-pers, while demonstrating that the system really works. How to do this, you ask? Show real return on investment (ROI) tracking, every week, for months and months. That’s what Be The Smart Money does

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GRAy HORSE? GRAy dAy? — STAy AwAy!Short:

Gray days at Keeneland...they happen... just stay away from the Gray horses when they do. Gray horses produce 9.4% win-ners and -33% ROI. Chestnuts get a nice edge winning 12.2% and returned -5.7% ROI.

Verbose:

Gray Horse on a Gray day / Myth (BUSTED)

you’ve planned your trip to Keeneland, excited to visit with friends and maybe hit a few winners. unfortunately, the clouds have not cleared and all indications point to overcast weather – a gray day. At some point, as your horse takes the final turn with the lead – going off at 7:1 – you’re already thinking what your $10 straight win bet will produce. That is until that gray streak of lightning crushes the field and comes from 10 lengths back down the stretch to win. That horse showed final odds of 23:1 – of course you and everyone around you is thinking the same thing – a gray horse on a gray day! BTSM set out to confirm if there was any truth behind “a gray horse on a gray day” or if that was simply a track myth – Myth busters as we like to call it.

Here is what we found specifically for Keeneland. Over a six year span – 827 races – on a day that is in fact “a gray day”, now that’s cigar rich analytics folks. As the illustration shows, gray horses rank last in win rate and ROI. This is one myth that is exactly that – a myth.

better yet, focus on the Chestnuts 12% win-rates and -5.7% ROI—getting close to a winning proposition.

– proves its results. We show you a tough weekend where our ROI is -10% and instead of just talking about the winners that we cashed, we talk about the losers because we all lose sometimes, that’s why they call it gambling. However, gambling doesn’t have to be without method or designed outcome. “Luck is the residue of design” and BTSM can design your wagers so that luck fills your pockets.

Any bettor can bet smarter and print money with BTSM. It is a value system designed to maximize earnings with ease and convenience. The Smart Sheets are real-time updated with scratches, jockey chang-es, and track conditions based on weather. This provides an immedi-ate leg up on tip sheets from any other source. Other tip sheets issue with no regard for changes that occur race day. BTSM Smart Sheets give you the most current information and estimated odds available. Horses in every race are ranked based on their probability to win, as well as pointing out where the value bets exist. BTSM factors in speed, jockey stats, trainer stats, track biases, lay-offs and more. For every type of race: maiden, claiming, stakes, turf, dirt, sprints, routes, and poly. With BTSM odds, you can throw away the morning line

because BTSM odds have outperformed the morning line over the past six years.

Because BTSM odds outperform the morning line – the best value is in exotic bets such as a Pick 3. Think about it , if you know the price of a stock before the market opens, you have an advantage over every-one else. At the track, if you know the odds of the fourth race before the second race goes off, you have an advantage over all the other players. With BTSM Smart Sheets, we give you the answers before the test even starts.

For us at BTSM, it’s more than selling Smart Sheets and sharing the knowledge we’ve accumulated through years of compiling and ana-lyzing data. It’s about creating a community and a presence as the go-to source for horse betting information on the web. We will al-ways provide an unbiased and straightforward analysis and hey, who doesn’t want to get smarter. So send us your Myth Buster, like us on Facebook, or find us at the Sports Bar and we can talk about it over a cold one while we print money and Stay in the Black.

THE bE THE SMART MONEy dIFFERENCE

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LIKE TO bET THE LONG SHOT?  LOOK FOR NON-MAIdEN RACES ON THE POLy - THEy HAvE AN ROI OF 5.9% OvER THE PAST 6 yEARSShort:

betting bias at Keeneland in April. From meets from 2007-2012, horses that went off at 10:1 or higher produced a +6% ROI. Strong favorites have the highest win-rate of 26% but produce a very unattractive -43% ROI. Check out those long-shots on the All-weather this April.

Verbose:

As we mentioned earlier, bTSM was designed to develop a handicapping system that not merely picks winners but also applies a formula based on proprietary odds to take advantage of differences in track odds and expected payout to make smarter betting decisions and maximize your earnings.

This is accomplished by balancing how much you flex your wager on the favorite and what other horses in a particular race show value. This means they are not the track favorite, but the bTSM data and statistical models predict a horse is underval-ued and you have a very good chance of getting paid 10 to 1 money on a horse we believe is really a 6 to 1 horse.

So if you are the type that wants to hit the big payout rather than betting on the heavy favorite, then consider the ROI on All weather Non-Maiden races at Keeneland. As one of the tougher type of races to pick, bTSM analysis shows horses going off with final odds greater than 10 have an ROI of +6%! - with 1,668 horses ran at those odds. yes, your win percentage will be higher on the favorites, but the smart money is taking a long odds horse in an All weather Non-Maiden race. Now that’s staying in the black!

Selecting the best 10+:1 horse on the All-weather, bTSM helps you there.

You can go to topsinlex.com for the daily tip sheet by clicking on TOP Tips.

For more information about how to ensure that you can Be The Smart Money, please visit Mark and Ryan’s website, bethesmartmoney.com.

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POST POSITION: TAKE THE INSIdE IN APRIL ANd THE OuTSIdE IN OCTObER.Short:

April 2007-2012, all races, all surfaces, inside Post Position (1&2), produced a 13.2% win-rate and a -10.7% ROI, as opposed to horses that ran on the outside in April who won only 8.1% of their races and produced a nasty -22.4% ROI.

The ‘inside’ looks like a decent bias until October rolls-around, where the betting money over wagers the 1&2 post positions and produces enemic return of -29% ROI.

The betting market over-corrects and can give you a competitive edge!