tüpraş presentation - microsoft...local market dynamics •growth trends •supply / demand...
TRANSCRIPT
Q1 2016 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Investments03
Company
Overview02
Refining
Industry01
Key
Financials04
Refining Industry
Brent Crude Oil Prices
108,0 115,3106,1
101,2
94,6
84,3
71,7
65,760,4
55,0
55,0
45,2
62,0
66,7
26,0 28,7
50,6
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
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01
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15
01
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15
01
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15
01
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15
01
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15
01
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15
01
.01
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16
01
.02
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16
01
.03
.20
16
01
.04
.20
16
01
.05
.20
16
01
.06
.20
16
4
$/Barrel
CONS
Already existing excess crude
supply
Cooling of Chinese economy
High production from the OPEC
and non-OPEC producers
Entry of Iranian production
Increase in the prices
encouraged swing producers
PROS
Disruptions in Canada, Venezuella,
Libtya & Nigeria
Decreased shale production
High consumption due to the lower
price environment.
Narrowed spread between the
Brent and WTI and increased
spread between the light and heavy
crudes
Refinery Capacity Change
810 640
160 195 52-255
-543 -486
334
150
340 13540
-145
-109 -266
160
250
181
84180
-240
65
-421
530
526
0 302
-5
-775
-546
520
400
120
390
-140
305
-352
270
510
0
198
-443
63
-189
200
880
0
309
-100
20
-218
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan NorthAmerica
Europe
Tho
usa
nd
Bar
rels
/Day
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5Source : Tüpraş, Reuters, Reports
1.6781.790
1.041 1.110
799885
1.000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Refinery Value
Value Added•Ability to upgrade
•Correlated to complexity
Cost Base•Energy Efficiency•Raw Material costs•Scale•Automation
Local Market Dynamics•Growth trends•Supply / Demand balance
Market Position•Proportion of products sold domestically•Local Competition•Infrastructure
6
7
Product Crack $/bbl
5,00
7,00
9,00
11,00
13,00
15,00
17,00
19,00
21,00
23,00
Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec
Jet Fuel
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F
5,00
7,00
9,00
11,00
13,00
15,00
17,00
19,00
Oca Şub Mar Nis May Haz Tem Ağu Eyl Eki Kas Ara
Gasoil
2014 2015 2016 T
Note: 2009-March 2016 Platts Data, 2016 (June-December estimation PIRA
8
Product Crack $/bbl
-60,00
-50,00
-40,00
-30,00
-20,00
-10,00
0,00
10,00LPG
2009 2010 2011 2012
-20,00
-15,00
-10,00
-5,00
0,00
5,00
Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec
Naphta
2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 F
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec
Gasoline
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F
Note: 2009- March 2016 Platts Data, 2016 (June-December) estimation PIRA
Quarterly Crack
9,54
14,1216,49
6,82
13,60
12,06 9,72
4,53
7,99
13,01
15,13
10,06
13,03
19,43 18,86
13,8015,205
1,003,005,007,009,00
11,0013,0015,0017,0019,0021,00
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Gasoline
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
16,7317,96 20,94
18,8816,97
15,83 16,39
16,36
15,3113,59
16,12 16,29
15,67
15,22 14,58
10,71
7,90
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Diesel
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
13,4415,69
18,27 17,0315,9712,96
13,1914,68
12,5711,16
15,0115,80
14,43
11,28 10,709,46
7,333
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Jet Fuel
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-14,42-11,81 -14,27
-20,24-18,76 -13,90 -18,92
-20,39-20,06-20,91
-15,72
-15,01
-11,64-12,10 -13,18
-15,73-0.013
-25,00
-20,00
-15,00
-10,00
-5,00
0,001Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Fuel Oil2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
9
Crude Differentials $/Barrel
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009-2012 Min/Max 2012 2014 2011 2013 2015 2016
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
Differentials Trends
Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC
Ural Crude Differentials $/Barrel
10
Med Complex Refining Margins
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gro
ss M
argi
n $
/bb
l
Max-Min 2004-2009 Average 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11
Turkish Sector Outlook
Primary driver of demand is
growing vehicle parc
Auto sales continue to massively
outstrip removals
Very high gasoline tax has led to LPG
& Diesel substitution
Gasoline car sales improving35,8 41,2 50,6 58,3 64,5 76,1 85,4 97,543,6 44,3
52,259,4
65,473,4
80,383,9
79,4 85,5102,8
117,6130,0
149,5165,7
181,4
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Air Passengers - Mill ion
Domestic International
4,6 5,4 6,1 6,8 7,1 7,5 8,1 8,6 9,3 9,9 10,6 10,84,1
4,86,1
7,0 7,2 7,6 8,0 8,4 8,7 9,09,4 9,5
8,710,2
12,213,8 14,3 15,1
16,117,0 17,9 18,8
20,0 20,4
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ion
Veh
icle
s
Vehicle Parc
Passenger Car Other
Jet Fuel demand growing strongly Highly competitive liberalised market
Big infrastructure investments
Istanbul has become a hub for Turkish Airlines
Fuel Oil demand is declining Natural gas substitution
Switching is dependent on price
Long Term Asphalt Demand Growth Infrastructure investments
*By the end of April12
2 Month 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million ton)
2,75 2,96
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
2015 2016
Diesel
0,190,23
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
2015 2016
Jet Fuel*
0,29 0,30
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
0,3
0,4
2015 2016
Gasoline
0,15 0,16
0,00
0,10
0,20
2015 2016
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA
*bunker excluded.
+6.6%
+7.8% +17.6%
+1,2%
4
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)
-3,0
2,1
-10,0
1,5
-3,0
2,5
-10,8
1,6
-3,1
2,4
-12,0
1,0
-3,1
2,5
-12,7
1,8
-3,0
3,0
-12,3
1,6
-14,0-13,0-12,0-11,0-10,0
-9,0-8,0-7,0-6,0-5,0-4,0-3,0-2,0-1,00,01,02,03,04,0
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Million Ton
Export
Import
Company Overview
Tüpraş Refining Assets
İzmir
İzmit
Ankara
İstanbul
Kırıkkale
Batman
Kirkuk
Baku
MARMARA
Kırıkkale
5.0 MT Capacity
NC: 6.32
Storage Capacity :
1.4 Mn m3
Batman
1.1 MT Capacity
NC: 1.83
Storage Capacity :
0.3 Mn m3
İzmit
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 14.5
Storage Capacity :
3.0 Mn M3
İzmir
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 7.66
Storage Capacity :
2.5 Mn M3
Lube Oil Production 400
thousand ton
Black Sea
Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million Tons – 100% of Turkey’s refining Capacity
Current Nelson Complexity(NC): 9.5
16
OPET Tüpraş Share 40.0 %
1.457 Stations
1.024 Opet Brand
433 Sunpet Brand
1.1 Million M3 Storage
•Major Terminals in Marmara, Agean, Black Sea & Mediteranean
International Trading
•London
Jet Fuel Sales
•Turkish Airlines JV
Lubricants
•Fuchs JV
A Sector Leader
•2nd Biggest Player
•# 1 Brand
17
DİTAŞ – Marine Transportation – Tüpraş Share %79.98
19,314,8
6,4 4,8 6,6
2,6
3,1
3,13,5
5,2
18,0
9,6
9,68,4
11,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
To
ns
Crude Products
Million $ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Sales 146,4 159,0 103,7 101,7 113,6
Op. Profit 17,9 22,8 25,2 27,3 36,8
• Crude• 2001
• 164,86 K DWT
Cumhuriyet
• Products • 2008
• 10,98 K DWT
Sevgi
• Products • 2009
• 10,98 K DWT
Gönül
Products
2011
6 K DWT
Leyla
Products201255 K DWT
Suna
• Bitumen
• 2x20 K DWT
• Esra 2014
• Aylin 2015
Esra & Aylin
Financials
19 Tugboats
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1 0
,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
11
,54
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0 1,4
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
IRA N RUSS İA S .A RA BİA TURKEY IRA Q KA Z A KSTA N ITA LY L İBYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API
19
63%
30%7%
Crude Type - 2015
Heavy / SourMedium Heavy / SourLight & Sweet
Margin Environment
20
Tüpraş Refining Margins ($/bbl)Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers’ refining
margin due to:
► Refined products deficit characteristic to the Turkish
market (for diesel, jet fuel, LPG and specialist products
such as lube oil and extract)
► Access to cheaper sources of crude oil
Ability to use heavier and sour crudes
► Proximity to major suppliers
Reduces transport costs
► Implemented cost reduction measures
Energy efficiency programs
► Capacity to produce higher value added range of
refined products
► Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients
► High export capability
Tüpraş Gross Margin Tüpraş Net Margin
Mediterranean Ural Complex Margin
5,30 5,32 5,54
1,95
2,89
1,17
4,21
1,67 2,01
4,834,77
-10123456789
10
J-0
6
J-0
6
N-0
6
A-0
7
S-0
7
F-0
8
J-0
8
D-0
8
M-0
9
O-0
9
M-1
0
A-1
0
J-1
1
J-1
1
N-1
1
A-1
2
S-1
2
F-1
3
J-1
3
D-1
3
M-1
4
O-1
4
M-1
5
A-1
5
J-1
6
Month Annual
Med Complex
9,6210,55
11,86
2,453,21
6,47
1,67 1,95
4,83
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2013 2014 2015
Annual
Gross Refinery Margins, $/bbl
21
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
J-9
9A
-99
J-9
9O
-99
J-0
0A
-00
J-0
0O
-00
J-0
1A
-01
J-0
1O
-01
J-0
2A
-02
J-0
2O
-02
J-0
3A
-03
J-0
3O
-03
J-0
4A
-04
J-0
4O
-04
J-0
5A
-05
J-0
5O
-05
J-0
6A
-06
J-0
6O
-06
J-0
7A
-07
J-0
7O
-07
J-0
8A
-08
J-0
8O
-08
J-0
9A
-09
J-0
9O
-09
J-1
0A
-10
J-1
0O
-10
J-1
1A
-11
J-1
1O
-11
J-1
2A
-12
J-1
2O
-12
J-1
3A
-13
J-1
3O
-13
J-1
4A
-14
J-1
4O
-14
J-1
5A
-15
J-1
5O
-15
J-1
6
Mediterranean
Tüpraş
USA WTI
Singapore
21
Capacity Utilisation (%)9
1,1
86
,1
60
,4
69
,6 74
,4 78
,7
76
,8
71
,3
98
,1
80
,7
94
,5
8,7
7,55,5
2,9 2,43,6
4,4
3,5
5,2
69,2
77,181,6
79,174,9
102,5
84,1
99,7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015/ 1q
2016/ 1q
Crude Oil Other
Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)
4,554,63 5,41
5,515,60
6,93
7,32 7,42
6,59
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015 2016
Production
22
+15,6%
1st Quarter Product Yields
White Product 73.75%
Production 5.6 mn ton
API:33.14
White Product 72.94%
Production 6.6 mn ton
API:31.14
Gasoline22,0%
Naphtha0,8%
Jet17,8%
ULSD27,9%
Other2,5%
LPG3,3%
Fuel Oil18,2%
Bitumen7,5%
Gasoline21,5%
Naphtha0,9%
Jet15,5%
Diesel29,9%
Other2,6%
LPG3,5%
Coke1,5%
Fuel Oil15,2%
Bitumen9,4%
Light Distil.22,8%
Mid. Distil.45,8%
Other 5,8%
Black Prod.25,6%
Light Distil.22,4%
Mid. Distil.45,4%
Other6,1%
Black Prod.26,1%
2015 2016
23
12M Product Yields
24
Due to102,5 CapacityutilizationRate
Refining Sales
1,8
7,9
2,8 3,0
1,8
8,6
3,32,8
1,8
8,1
3,62,9
1,8
6,7
3,9
1,92,0
9,2
4,8
2,9
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Bitumen
2011 2012 2013
2014 2015
Domestic Sales, Million Tons
16,9
22,2
5,3
6,522,2
28,7
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
2014 2015
ExportDomestic
%+31,9
%+29,5
4,2
8,0
3,0 3,0
4,6
8,8
3,52,8
4,6
8,2
3,72,9
4,3
6,8
3,9
1,9
5,6
9,3
5,1
2,9
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Bitumen
2011 2012 2013
2014 2015
► Sales to distributors in Turkey are
made at prices established by Tüpraş
In accordance with a formula based on
Italian "CIF" prices plus a margin
below a maximum approved by EMRA
Tüpraş's prices are affixed to all
distributors, including Opet, on an
equal basis
► Export sales are generally made to
traders, on FOB basis
Total Sales, Million Tons
Sales Breakdown & Comparison
Million
tons
12M Trading Activities
Exports
High CUR = big increases in export
Finished Products
High Sulfur Diesel imports decreased due to
low desulphurisation arbitrage profits.
ULSD imports were higher due to the trading
arbitrage.
Intermediates
Additional HVGO + LCGO imported to increase
Capacity Utilisation of conversion units.
0
882
692
24
532
274
0
637
804
49
588
61
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
Product Imports, Ton*000
2014
2015
2.508
129
2.670
27
3.559
349
2.551
350
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
Gasoline Middle Dist. Fuel Oil Other
Exports, Ton*000
2014
2015
436
733
0
200
400
600
800
HVGO + LCGO ASR F.Oil
Intermediate Imports , Ton*000
12M 2014 12M 2015
26
Sales By Customer 2015
27
Distributors44%
THY Opet10%
Jet Fuel4%
LPG Dist.4%
Petkim0%
Other5%
Export24%
Asphalt7%
Military2%
OMV POAŞ26%
OPET18%Shell
17%
BP2%
TP3%
TOTAL4%
Others30%
Customer Groups Sales to Distributors
Total: 9.41 million tonDistributors : 4.15 million ton
Investments, million $
397
761
1.006
701
190150
231
213
207
258
153
268
177
628
974
1.213
959
344268
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RUP with Supplementary Projects
Others
Other Major ProjectsProject Aims
•To reduce the need for fresh water
What the Project Entails
•A water treatment plant to process municipal & refinery waste water
•Two temporary systems were built to serve until the main system was completed
•Project completed in 2015
Investment
•22 Million USD
30
İzm
it W
aste
Wat
er
Tre
atm
en
t
Project Aims
•Eliminating low energy efficiency in the furnaces
•Enables sustainable full capacity utilization
What the Project Entails
•Configuration Changes
•De-salter & Pre-flash column
•Heat recycling – Heat Exchanger
•Replace column internals
•New pre-flash drum
Expectations
•Investment: 31.9 Million USD
•IRR > 40%
İzm
ir C
rud
e O
il R
eva
mp
ing
Project Aims
•Improving Energy Efficiency at Kırıkkale with a combined heat & power plant
•The other refineries are already equipped
•Expected completion: 2016
What the Project Entails
•A new gas turbine
•New steam turbines
•New boilers
•One existing steam turbine will be utilized
•Total power: 60 MW
Investment
•84 Million USD
•IRR: >30%
Kır
ıkka
le P
ow
er
Pla
nt
Profitability Indicators , 2014-2015 Full Year & 1Q-2015-2016
* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB rules is that these should be included in
operationg profit
32
1st Q(%)
Full Year(%)
2015 2016 2014 2015
53,97 33,89 -37 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 98,99 52,46 -47,01
33,14 31,14 -6,0 Processed Crude API 32,29 31,35 -2,91
73,75 72,94 -0,8 White Product Yield, (%) 72,20 75,40 3,20
5,98 3,84 -35,8 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 1,95 4,83 148,2
4,69 2,81 -40,0 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 3,21 6,47 101,6
42,3 92,9 120 Operating Profit, (mn. $) 199,3 1.012,2 408
119,7 68,2 -43 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 220,1 1.218,6 454
72,1 138,5 92 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 317,3 1.191,0 275
142,3 160,9 13 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 554,1 1.379,1 149
149,5 113,8 -24 EBITDA *(mn. $) 338,2 1.397,4 313
219,7 136,2 -38 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 575,0 1.585,5 176
Financial Highlights (mn $)
134262
95 79 150 150 114
256
328
153 78-27
415
271
468
361315 226
410169
272
10689
-11
422
830
1.329
715560
338
1.397
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2011 2012R 2013 2014 2015 201667
194 16172
231112 27
145
16575
75
171273
230
206309 435
175 26847
174 27147 91
285
490
740817
629 667
938
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-1.9
55
57
8
55
1
1.3
40 1.9
94
1.6
96
1.8
69
1.5
98
1.6
63 2
.45
2
2.5
77
2.7
48
2.3
70
2.2
58
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
0,2
2 0,2
5
0,3
4
0,1
1
0,2
2
0,1
9
0,3
0
0,3
2
0,2
4
0,1
0
0,4
0
0,3
3
0,3
0
0,2
6
0,1
8
0,3
0 0,3
5
0,3
5
0,0
4
0,000,050,100,150,200,250,300,350,400,45
EBITDA Net Income
Net Debt/(Cash) Return on Average Equity
33
Balance Sheet Analysis
1,81
1,41
2,16
1,721,69
1,30
1,641,68
1,211,04
0,821,04
1,64
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Mar.13 Jun 13 Sep13 Dec 13Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15Mar.16
Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
1,341,45
1,33
0,930,71
0,520,51
0,090,20
0,66
1,070,88
0,70
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Receivables (Billion $)
2,1 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9
0,8 0,81,0 0,5
0,9 0,3 0,3 0,30,4 0,5 0,6 0,6
1,02,9 3,13,4
3,1
3,73,2 3,2 3,3
3,7 3,6 3,6 3,43,9
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans
2,972,94
3,463,223,103,28
3,04
2,46
1,741,701,591,361,23
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
Payables (Billion $)
34
FX Risk Exposure (31 March 2016)
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
LT Financials: 2819
RUP Loans: 1,555
Eurobond: 700
Other credits 564
ST Financials 374
• RUP 295
Payables
868
Forward
2430
Stock
724
Receivables
68
Cash
896
Million $
+57 million $
Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,637 mn $35
Future Expectations
Brent Price Estimation
• The average Brent price in 2016 is expected to be 45-55 dollars per barrel band.
Med Complex Margin
• We expect Med Complex margins to be 3.5-4.0 dollars per barrel band in 2016.
Tupras Net Margin
• For Tupras net refinery margins, we expect this to be in the region of 5.5-6.0 dollars per barrel
Capacity Utilisation
• Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2016 will be around 100 %.
• Production will therefore be approximately 28 million tons
• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production
• Total sales volume will be 30.0 million tons
Investment
• Total investments for 2016 will be about 270 Million dollars
Income Statement
37
1Q 1Q% Diff. Million USD 2014 2015 % Diff.
2015 2016
2.829,3 2.101,3 -26 Net Sales 18.164,8 13.570,7 -25
203,1 166,5 -18 Gross Profit 577,5 1.535,7 166
-70,0 -76,9 10 Operating Expenses -334,6 -322,6 -4
-90,8 3,3 -104 Income/Loss from other operations -43,6 -200,9 361
42,3 92,9 120 Operating Profit 199,3 1.012,2 408
-9,2 4,9 -154 Income/Loss from equity investment -7,6 26,7 -450
33,1 97,9 196 Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 191,6 1.038,9 442
180,7 61,6 -66 Financial Income 228,1 317,3 39
-225,7 -126,9 -44 Finance Expenses -335,8 -537,7 60
-11,9 32,5 -373 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 84,0 818,6 875
112,0 26,8 -76 Net Profit 667,2 938,0 41
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets
38
Million USD 31.03.2016 31.12.2015 Difference%
Difference
Current Assets 3.320 2.984 337 11
Cash & C. Equivalents 1.637 1.041 596 57
Receivables 700 882 -182 -21
Derivatives 5 6 -2 -26
Inventories 785 723 62 9
Pre-paid expenses 45 45 0 0
Other Current Assets 148 285 -137 -48
Long Term Assets 5.912 5.776 135 2
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 261 264 -3 -1
Fixed Assets 4.057 3.950 107 3
Derivatives 71 86
Pre-paid expenses 91 62 29 47
Deferred Tax 1.087 1.101 -14 -1
Other Long Term Assets 345 314 31 10
Total Assets 9.232 8.760 472 5
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities
39
Million USD 31.03.2016 31.12.2015 Difference % Difference
Short Term Liabilities 3.210 3.036 174 6
Financial Loans 977 644 334 52
Payables 1.234 1.363 -129 -9
Derivatives 39,45 13,89 25,56 184
Deferred Incomes 6 8 -1,77 -22
Provisions 35 24 10 43
Other ST Liabilities 919 984 -65 -7
Long Term Liabilities 3.010 2.845 164 6
Financial Loans 2.917 2.768 149 5
Payables & Provisions 70 67 3 4
Derivatives 21 9 12 127
Other LT Liabilities 1 1 0 -3
Equity 2.988 2.856 132 5
Minority Interests 24 22 2 9
Total Liabilities 9.232 8.760 472 5
Dividends (TL)
1,73
3,242,94
4,96
5,83
4,78
0
10,18
2,31 2,502,98
3,93 3,85
1,58
6,50
579626
746
985 964
396
1.628
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tota
l Pay
ou
t (M
illio
n T
L)
Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive 40
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company
management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is
believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable,
they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying
assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other
person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this
presentation.
The Investor Relations section of our company website has a rich content of updated
information for the interested investors
www.tupras.com.tr
Investor Relations Manager
Deniz Değirmenci
Investor Relations and Reporting DirectorsTel. : 262 316 3269Fax : 262 316 30 10-11Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No .25 PK.41790 Körfez-Kocaeliwww.tupras.com.trE-mail: [email protected]
Supplements
HIGH DEMAND (12 Month 2015 - Turkish Consumption (Million ton))
17,43 20,18
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2014 2015
Diesel
4,104,64
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2014 2015
Jet Fuel*
1,92 2,09
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
2014 2015
Gasoline
0,540,44
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
2014 2015
Fuel Oil
* Tüpraş sales + Distributor’s Imports
+9,1%
+15,8%+13,1%
-18,5%
2 Month 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million ton)
2,75 2,96
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
2015 2016
Diesel
0,190,23
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
2015 2016
Jet Fuel*
0,29 0,30
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
0,3
0,4
2015 2016
Gasoline
0,15 0,16
0,00
0,10
0,20
2015 2016
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA
*bunker excluded.
+6.6%
+7.8% +17.6%
+1,2%
4
HIGH COMPLEXITY #1(Nelson Complexity of Refinining Companies)
14,5
13,012,6
11,8 11,6 11,511,0
10,49,9 9,8 9,6 9,5 9,4 9,2 9,2 9,0 8,8 8,7
8,48,0
7,3 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,16,8
6,5
5,9 5,8 5,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Tüpraş Before RUP
Tüpraş After RUP
İzmitAfter RUP
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 2(Resid Upgrading Units Production – (Thousand Tons))
Raw Materials
Natural Gas 246
Vacuum Resid1,214
Atm. Straight Run Fuel Oil3,036
Total Feed 4,496 Total Production 4,250
(kton)
Products(kton)
47
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 3(Tüpraş Total Production Change After RUP)
4,7
3,6
5,6
1,4
2,9
1,7
0,9
5,5
0,3
0,35
0,7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Gasoline&Naptha
Jet Fuel
Diesel
Others
Fuel Oil
Coke
BitumenBefore RUP After
%35
%25
%19
%-87
Million ton
48
2,7
RUP production + 4 Refineries Capacities increase 9,1 mn tons, instead of 4,2 mn ton
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 4(Tüpraş Tax Incentive From RUP)
• Valued at 30% of project cost
• Realised after completion
• Tax rate of 10% on project earnings until total incentive is reached
Large ScaleInvestment Incentive
21.10.2010
• Valued at 50% of project cost
• Partly realised during construction
• Tax rate of 2% on project earnings until total incentive is reached
Strategic Investment Incentives 19.10.2012
• is 3,66 billion TL.
• 344 mn TL of Investment incentive income deducted from Strategic Investment Incentive total
Total incentive
HIGH QUALITY(Maximum on-road diesel sulphur limits, January 2014)
50
2014 2015 2020 2025
US& Canada 15 15 15 10
Latin America 630 450 195 40
Europe 20 18 12 10
Middle east 900 470 125 45
Russia & Caspian 90 70 55 40
Africa 2.800 2.000 850 390
Asia& Pasific 245 185 105 45
Source:Stratas Advisors
Tüpraş and Turkey have the most stringentproduction limits on sulphur content
HIGH FLEXIBILITY(Tüpraş Refineries Simple Flow Diagram)
Gasoline + Naphtha
%21.9
Jet Fuel +Kerosene
%19.0
Gas Oil%30.5
Vacuum Dist.(8) Bitumen /
Fuel Oil%21.9
Crude Distillation(8)
Lube Oil%0.5
LPG
%3.4Isomerisation
(3)
Hydrocracker (4)
FCC(2)
Kero / DieselHDS (10)
LPG Merox (6)
NaphthaSplitter
(8)
FCC GasolineHDS(2)
Benzene Saturation
(2)
UnifinerReformer
(7)
Lube Oil (1)
Others %1.3
2015Yield
97,000 m3/bbl
43,000 m3/bbl
6,400 m3/bbl
16,900 m3/bbl
37,300 m3/bbl
4,700 m3/bbl
17,400 m3/bbl
400 thousand ton/year
Coker
Bitumen (4)
8,200 m3/day
LOCATIONAL ADVANTAGE & HEAVIER CRUDES(Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons))
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1 0
,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
11
,54
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0 1,4
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
IRA N RUSS İA S .A RA BİA TURKEY IRA Q KA Z A KSTA N ITA LY L İBYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API
52
53www.Tüpraş.com.tr
Baku
Ceyhan
Black Sea
Marmara
Mersin
Ankara
İstanbul
Batman
Kirkuk
İzmir
İzmit
Kırıkkale
COVERING WHOLE COUNTRY
Operations
İzmit
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 14,5
Storage Capacity: 2.2 Mn M3
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Ship, Railway & Truck
İzmir
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 7.66
Storage Capacity: 1.9 Mn M3
Only lubricant, base Oil, producer
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Ship, & Truck
Kırıkkale
5.0 MT Capacity
NC: 6.32
Storage Capacity: 1.2 Mn M3
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Railway & Truck
Batman
1.1 MT Capacity
NC: 1.83
Storage Capacity: 0.2 Mn M3
Asphalt - 70% of product yield
o Semi-finished products sent for
further processing
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Railway & Truck
Tüpraş operates the only 4 refineries in Turkey
• 3 Large Refineries produce Euro V Diesel & Gasoline, plus jet fuel, fuel oils, asphalt, LPG,
naphtha and others
13
0
10
7
15
0
11
8
10
9
80 11
9
11
3
19
6
47
17
4
20
5 17
2
21
4
22
4
21
1 27
5 32
0
24
5304 313 322 331 334 339
394
433 441
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Spa. Ger. Gre. EU19 Fra. TR Ita. Eng. Nor.
COMPETITION # 1(European Pump Price Comparison)
Gasoline (Krş / Lt) Diesel 10 ppm (Krş / Lt)
13
9
10
9
12
3
82
12
7
13
1
11
4
13
1
18
5
43
21
4
27
8 28
2
28
0
28
2 30
5
32
0 32
2
30
2
353
386405 405 409
436 434454
487
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Spa. Ger. EU19 TR Fra. Gre. Eng. Ita Nor.
Tax Distr. Margin Pump No Tax
54Not:e Price valid on 15 Feb 2016. Tukey diesel price 18 Feb. 2016.
COMPETITION # 2 (Regional Competition)
Mediterranean Black Sea
55
17 Refineries
1.6 mn bpd53 Refineries
7.6 mn bpd
COMPETITION # 3 (SOCAR-STAR Refinery)
• Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13
percent stake in SOCAR Turkey for
$1.3 billion.
• Goldman Sachs has the right to resell
10 percent of its stakes to Socar, and
the remaining 3 percent to ‘Sermaye
Investments Limited’ owned by SOCAR
within 6 year at the same price.
56
Credit : 3.3 Billion $
Equity : 2.4 Billion $
Total Investment: 5.7 Billion $
STAR Refinery Production (k ton)
• 3,3 billion dollar credit aggrement. First 4 year grace period total 15-18 year term.
• Project finance is supplied to company (US$ 1.5 billion)
• It is planned to be commissioned in 2018.
Fuels
• Diesel 5.000
• Jet Fuel 1.700
• Sulphur 158
• Petrocoke 698
Petrochemical feedstock
• LPG 260
• Naptha 1.300
• Mixed xylene 460
• Reformate 524
10,100
Million ton
2018 2018*
TurkeyDemand
TüpraşProduction
Turkey-Tüpraş
StarSOCAR
Deficit/(Excess)
Crude Oil 28,1 10,0Semi product+Other charge 0,8Total processed 28,9 10,0Products
LPG 4,1 1,1 -3,0 0,3 -2,7Petrochem. charge: Naptha, Reformate/xylene 2,8 0,6 -2,2 2,3 0,1Gasoline 2,2 5,7 3,5 3,5Jet fuel/Kerosene 5,4 5,6 0,2 1,7 1,9Diesel 21,9 10,2 -11,7 5,0 -6,7Fuel Oil 1,1 0,9 -0,2 -0,2Asphalt 3,3 2,7 -0,6 -0,6Sulphur & other 1,8 0,5 -1,3 0,2 -1,1Coke 3,0 0,8 -2,2 0,7 -1,5
Total 45,5 28,4 -17,1 10,1 -7,0
COMPETITION # 4(Turkey consumption balance & the effect of new refinery)
57
*Expected to be completed by the end of 2018
7,1
7,1
6,9
6,1
4,8
5,0
3,4
3,5
1,9
1,7
1,9
1,7
2,4
2,8
3,4
1,1
3,6
3,2
1,8
2,6
1,4
0,8
1,3
2,0
0,5
3,6
2,5
1,72,2
1,51,1
1,6
2,5
0,7
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2019
Tüpraş Contractor Total
Tüpraş HSE KPI: Loss Time Incident Frequency and Severity Frequency Ratios
Loss Time Severity Frequency Rate (2015 Target 30) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
Tüpraş 92 44 40 53 65 61 59 719 20
Contractor 116 101 81 118 424 17 378 51 20
Total 105 73 57 83 289 26 308 315 20
Incident Frequency
loss time incident freaquency rate =number of incident *1000000/man hours
loss severity frequency rate = loss time*1000000/man hours
58
İncluding contractors
42 73
135
240
345376
398 407
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
59
Energy Index 119,1 99,2
Energy Saving Projects , mn$
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
Tüpraş Energy consumption (TJ) 76.653 65.265 67.010 70.792 71.086 69.147 67.034 90.796 577.783
Energy-saving(TJ) 978 10.891 3.155 3.053 5.255 2.841 1.772 1.031 28.976
Energy Efficiency Project 36 52 65 92 97 40 22 21 425
Savings (mn $) 42 32 62 105 106 31 22 10 407