traces of transition: a region at a crossroads?
TRANSCRIPT
Stockholm Institute of Transition
Economics (SITE),
Stockholm, Sweden
International School of Economics Policy
Institute (ISET-PI),
Tbilisi, Georgia
Baltic International Centre for Economic
Policy Studies (BICEPS),
Riga, Latvia
Centre for Economic Analysis
(CENEA), Szczecin, Poland
Belarusian Economic Research and
Outreach Center (BEROC),
Minsk, Belarus
Kyiv School of Economics (KSE),
Kyiv, Ukraine
Centre for Economic and Financial Research
(CEFIR),
Moscow, Russia
Michał Myck, CenEA
SITE Development Day 2016
Stockholm, 26 May 2016
Traces of transition:
A region at a crossroads?
Traces of transition: reflections of growth
1992
Traces of transition: reflections of growth
Source: US NOAA data and Mapbox; compiled by Mateusz Najsztub
Traces of transition: reflections of growth
2002
Source: US NOAA data and Mapbox; compiled by Mateusz Najsztub
Traces of transition: reflections of growth
2012
Source: US NOAA data and Mapbox; compiled by Mateusz Najsztub
Traces of transition: reflections of growth
2012
Source: US NOAA data and Mapbox; compiled by Mateusz Najsztub
Traces of transition: reflections of growth
Belarus – Poland – Ukraine: development at the crossroads
1992
Source: US NOAA data and Mapbox; compiled by Mateusz Najsztub
Traces of transition: reflections of growth
Belarus – Poland – Ukraine: development at the crossroads
2012
Source: US NOAA data and Mapbox; compiled by Mateusz Najsztub
Traces of transition: growth and the labor market
1991
2001
20111991
2001
2011
1991
2001
2011
1991
2001
2011
19912001
2011
35%
40%
45%
50%
52%
Em
plo
ym
ent ra
te
8.2 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 10.7
Log of real GDP per capita
BLR CZE POL UKR DEU
Total employment to population ratio
and real GDP per capita
Source: Penn World
Tables, PWT 8.1
Productivity, employment and output:
- Different starting points (1991) – different paths – different outcomes:
Traces of transition:
key challenges for policy
• Labor market: increasing participation and productivity:
1991
2001
20111991
2001
2011
1991
2001
2011
1991
2001
2011
19912001
2011
35%
40%
45%
50%
52%
Em
plo
ym
ent ra
te
8.2 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 10.7
Log of real GDP per capita
BLR CZE POL UKR DEU
Increasing employment and
restructuring:
• important role of education
for ability to respond to
changes on labor market;
• technological changes and
the role of FDI.
How to tax labor?
(tax system reforms)
Education reforms and
education funding.
Employment to population ratio and
real GDP per capita
LV
PT
HU
DE
RO
AT
PL
ES
SK
IT
MT
CZ
CY
GR
SL
LT
BG
LU
EE
NL
DKBE
FI
SE
UK
FR
IE
.35
.4.4
5.5
.55
.6
Old
age
de
pe
nde
ncy r
atio
, 20
50
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1Fertility rate, 2009
Traces of transition:
key challenges for policy
• Demographics: the consequences of success of living longer:
Challenges of aging:
• labor market shortages;
• fiscal stability: pressures
on pensions, health, social
assistance.
How to fund pensions?
(pensions system reforms)
How to increase fertility?
How to manage migration?
Fertility rate today and old age
dependency in 2050
Source: EUROSTAT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NL
D
FR
A
DE
U
BE
L
AU
T
SW
E
GB
R
CZ
E
SV
K
HU
N
PO
L
BG
R
ES
T
UK
R
LT
U
BL
R
RO
M
LV
A
RU
S
KA
Z
GE
O
AR
M
Traces of transition:
key challenges for policy
• Demographics: public expenditures and quality of life:
Public health expenditure as % of
GDP in 2013
Source: World Bank
Improving quality of life: health
care
• implications of ageing;
• direct and indirect effects of
better health on quality of
life (productivity, human
capital accumulation).
How to fund health care?
(tax system reforms)
Long term perspective on
health policy.
A region at a cross-roads: securing a brighter future
• Different scale of challenges in different countries of the region:– High diversity within countries – need for regional strategies?
– Economic development, distributional issues and the role of democratic foundations.
2012
1
Thank you