track access charges for the bulgarian railways – technical assistance market demand
TRANSCRIPT
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Track Access Charges for the Bulgarian Railways – Technical Assistance
Market demand
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Transport demand, period 2000 – 2013
Passenger demand dropped down by almost 5% average per yearFreight demand decreased by 3% a year
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
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External factors influencing passenger demand
Number of population: decreasing by 0.7% per year
Population age: 18.5% over 65 years, 13.2 % below 15 year
Territorial distribution: 64% in South Bulgaria; 49.5% in South central and South-western region
Level of incomes: 48% of EU average Level of car ownership: 76% of EU average
Seminar 21/01/2015 Railway infrastructure – Key to achieve sustainable transport
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External factors influencing freight demand
Structure of the national economy: 63.4% of GVA from services, 31.3% from industry
Collapse of big clients (Kremikovtsi) SME generate over 59% of the GVA Shift from large volumes of low-
price bulk materials to smaller-volume high-value general cargoes
60% of international trade is to/from countries served by sea and IWW
Seminar 21/01/2015 Railway infrastructure – Key to achieve sustainable transport
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Result for nowadays demand by rail 20% of the lines serve 80% of the demand
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
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Future perspectives for passenger demand
Negative demographic trends will persist
Incomes and car ownership are will keep growing
Value of time will grow in parallel to GDP pc
Target group for socially oriented services will shrink
Higher demand for suburban services
Lower demand for long distance services and regional services
Forecasted growth in number of passengers: 2020: 3.7% compared to 2013 2030: 9.2% compared to 2013
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
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Passenger demand and supply 2030/2013
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
Assumed new services: Plovdiv – Panagyurishte Plovdiv – Hisarya Plovdiv – Karlovo Stara Zagora – Chirpan Stara Zagora – Nova Zagora Pleven – Cherkvitsa route Mezdra – Montana
Assumed additional supply in train-km: 8-9%
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Future perspectives for freight demand
Domestic demand: Agriculture will keep decreasing Services are expected to grow Industry share anticipated to remain stable: highest growth is expected for ferrous and non-ferrous
metal industries, followed by engineering, and chemical industries Overall 20% growth 2030/2013
Good news: better perspectives for 2030 international demand exist: 30% overall growth of demand 60% more import and export 65% more transit
However, alternative routes and transport modes will compete for this demand!
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
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Freight demand and supply
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges
Estimated additional supply:22% more train-km in 2020 in comparison to 201357% more train-km in 2030 in comparison to 2013
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Conclusions
Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges