tracking development progress in the pacific facts, fiction and some follies gerald haberkorn...

Tracking Development Progress in the Pacific facts, fiction and some follies

Gerald HaberkornManager, Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific CommunityNoumea, New [email protected]; www.spc.int/sdp

Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community

2011 International Conference on MDG StatisticsManila, 19 – 21 October 2011

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.spc.int/sdp

Pacific Island Countries and Territories

Marshall Islands

Kiribati

Tuvalu

French Polynesia

Tokelau

AmSamoa

SamoaWallis etFutuna

PitcairnIslands

CookIslands

Niue

Fiji

Vanuatu

New Caledonia

SolomonIslands

Papua New Guinea

Tonga

Nauru

Palau

Guam

CNMI

Federated States of Micronesia

One of hundreds

and another one

1. Sea of islands – multiple diversities2. Tracking MDG progress in the Pacific, 2011 3. Opinions versus facts – some data management follies4. Reflecting on way forward


Structure of presentation

• 15 countries, 7 territories• Population, 2011: 10 million (PNG 6,9 million -> Pitcairn 48 people)• 1 country 2/3 of Pacific population <---> 8 countries < 20,000 pop• 3 sub-regions: Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia• Substantial diversity: bio-physical environment, economies,

demography, cultural and politicalo 0.1% of world population – 1/3 of world’s known and documented languages

(700)• Considerable similarities:

o Small size of domestic marketso Heavy reliance on importso Isolation/transport challenges and costso Dominance of public sectorso Weak manufacturing base and high cost structure


A sea of islands – multiple diversities

• Clearly reflected in 2011 MDG tracking report• It also illustrates the danger of regional aggregation of

values, with one country biasing regional picture.• If aggregates are required, might be beneficial to work

along the lines of established three sub-regions (see next slide)


A sea of islands – multiple diversities

• Accurate assessment of MDG developments over time hampered by both lack and abundance of specific MDG indicators, as well as data communication and data management hiccups.

• Current scenarios and challenges with Pacific Island Countries’ MDG reportingi. parallel reporting of multiple values for the same indicator, ii. use of estimates when national data are available, iii. references to data unavailability where information does existiv. misinformed assertions about development status of countries,

including the lack of development progress made.


Opinions versus facts – some data management follies


Parallel reporting facilitated by abundance, not simply because of lacking MDG related data and information

National Regional International Cook Islands 2005 and 2010 Fiji Islands 2004 and 2009 Kiribati 2007 Marshall Islands 2005 and 2009 Niue 2007 Palau 2008 Papua New Guinea 2005 and 2009

(forthcoming) Samoa 2010 (2nd progress report) Solomon Islands 2004 Tonga 2005 and 2010 Tuvalu 2006 Vanuatu 2005 and 2010

SPC: First Regional

MDG Report, 2004 PFIS: 2011 Pacific

MDGs Tracking Report (annual since 2009)

UNSD Annual MDG Report ESCAP/ADB/UNDP Annual

MDG report for Asia-Pacific WHO Progress import on

achieving Health related MDGs in Western Pacific Region, 2010

i. Parallel reporting of multiple values for the same indicator

Table 2: MDG 8.15 – Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population, Marshall islands

Description Value Year Data Source Percentage of population owning a cellular phone

40.6

2007

2007 Marshall islands DHS survey

Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population

17.5 2008 Marshall Islands National MDG Report


3.78 (7.03)

2008 (2010)

UNSD MDG Indicators


1.68 2009 ADB PIPI Draft report


1.6 2009 World Bank ICT at a glance


24.0 2011 National Telco Authority /Ministry of Transport and Communication

ii. Use of estimates when national data are available

iii. References to data unavailability where information exists

iv. Misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made.

Two key challenges (illustrated with reference to IMR)

• Conceptual: choice of meaningful targets (focus on halving or reducing something by 2/3 not always conducive to accurately reflect true achievements)

• Fiji (national data): 17 (1990) –> 15 (2009)• 2015 target: unlikely to achieve two-third reduction (2015) and get

to 5.7 (going by developments since 1990). • Positive view: 15/1000 = below 20/1000 level and reflects small

improvement since 1990;• Critical view: not much change since 1990, despite considerable

investments in MCH/EPI/nutrition/water and sanitation over last two decades.

• Pragmatic view: examine IMR’s two components, to ascertain developments in neonatal/post-neonatal mortality.

iv. misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made.

Two key challenges – examples, IMR

• Vanuatu (national data): 45 (1990) –> 21 (2009)• 2015 target: on track to achieve two-third reduction (2015)

and get to 15.

iv. misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made.

Two key challenges – examples, IMR

2. Methodological: choice of realistic 1990 benchmark. … too many indicators, not enough agreement ….


Table 6: Comparison of Infant Mortality rate, 1990 baseline (or nearest year)

Revisiting Fiji and Vanuatu achievements

• Statistics collected (sourced) at national level;• Indicators derived at national (with assistance from regional

and other statistical TA providers) and international levels;• Indicators compiled and published nationally, regionally,

internationally.• Data management increases in complexity from statistical

collection to translation into information, involving diverse players with diverse interest:o NSOs doing their job, to the best of their ability, complying with

their mandate to produce “official statistics”;o International statistical stakeholders doing their job, complying with

their mandate(s), to assist in producing comparable information.o Somewhere, somehow, something, it seems, has gone astray with

communication and coordination


Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management

What tangible contribution can we make?

• Ten year Pacific Statistics Strategy, 2011 – 2020o Key focus on harmonization of statistical concepts, classifications,

systems of collections to provide core set of comparable, quality and timely statistics across key sectors – political mandate by Pacific Leaders in pacific plan

o Revamp/develop administrative databases in key sectors to facilitate regular statistical compilations, to improve sustainability of collecting/dissemination key core statistics on a more real-time basis

o Phase 1 (2011 – 2012) priorities in economic statistics , vital statistics and civil registration, health and education information systems:




• National Minimum Development Indicator databaseo Comprises of 192 indicators ( at the moment) across ten thematic

areas, comprising all population-based MDG indicatorso Phase 1 completed, with sourcing of 67% of 2,880 data points;o Phase 2 about to start with

o Countries reviewing their NMDI files;o SPC to review agency comments plus include some additional indicators

from key technical and financial partners (so far Pacific-based UNDAF group , UNFPA, UNICEF, WHO, ILO; FAO; AusAID and ADB)

o Phase 3: gradual incorporation of indicators pertaining to critical cross-cutting themes such as climate change and food security;




• National Minimum Development Indicator databaseo NMDI database, once Phase 2 completed in early 2012, can provide

the go-to place for Pacific island countries MDG indicators; o Provides good basis to contribute to improved statistical

communication , coordination and data management regards MDGs




Vanuatu - PD.5.2.1 – Current Primary School Enrolment (MDG.2.1)


Tonga - H.4.3 – Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (MDG.5.3)Tonga - H.4.4 – Adolescent Birth Rate (Teenage Fertility Rate) (MDG.5.4)Tonga - H.4.5 – Antenatal care coverage (% of women who had at least one antenatal session with a skilled provider) (MDG 5.5)


• Improved regional statistical governance o Pacific Statistics Steering Committee, comprising of 6 Government

statisticians and four representatives of key technical (UNFPA as chair of UNDAF; University of the South Pacific) financial partners (AusAID and ADB, representing bilateral and multilateral partners) meets twice yearly to monitor implementation of Ten Year Pacific Statistics strategy

o PSSC provides forum for regular dialogue between national, regional and international statistical stakeholders



What tangible developments would we like to see?

• UNSD consolidation/expansion of MDG labo Recognizes importance of national data/official statistics o Adds value to UNSD MDG country database, by publishing

international and national MDG indicators side-by-side

Regional Dialogue on MDG statistics in 2012o SPC acknowledges UNSD’s proposal to collaborate in convening a

Pacific Regional MDG forum involving national and international statistical stakeholders to address Pacific-specific data management challenges pertaining to MDG statistics

o Provides timely and welcome opportunity to move forward in improving communication, coordination, data management regards MDGs.

Thank you



tracking development progress in the pacific facts, fiction and some follies gerald haberkorn...

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