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Updated January 19, 2021 Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19

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Page 1: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

Updated January 19, 2021

Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19

Page 2: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

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» Air cargo demand reached an all-time high in 3Q 2020.

» In contrast, air-travel demand remains severely depressed, but could pick up meaningfully if harmonized testing regimes replace travel restrictions and vaccination rates increase.

» As an industry, U.S. airlines are unlikely to achieve cash break-even during 1H 2021.

» It will take years for airlines to retire the newly accumulated billions of dollars of debt.

» The sizable associated interest expense will limit their wherewithal to rehire and reinvest.

Key Points

Page 3: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

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We Are Unlikely to See a Return to 2019 Passenger Volumes Before 2023-20242021-2022 Clouded by Uncertainty re: State of Pandemic, Vaccination/Therapeutics, Economy

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2020E 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Pessimistic OptimisticSource: A4A and various airline equity analysts

U.S. Airline Passenger Traffic Change (%) vs. 2019The Bull Case• Better-than-expected vaccine efficacy• Accelerating rates of vaccination (worldwide)• Standardization of testing in lieu of restrictions• Better-than-expected economic outlook/stimulus• Business travel resurgence (healthy markets)• Personal travel resurgence (record savings)• Virtual interactions and dispersion of office workers

(“self remotification”) and facilities stimulate demand

The Bear Case• Vaccines fail to address new strain(s) of COVID• Low rates of vaccine deployment or acceptance• Virus persists as people avoid masks and distance• Travel restrictions remain despite vaccines/testing• Economy falters• Business travel lags as companies conserve cash• Virtual meeting technologies displace future travel

due to cost and/or climate considerations

Page 4: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

4

Aviation Is in the Early Innings of a Multiyear, Multistage Recovery

Traffic Recovery

Revenue Recovery

Financial Recovery

Reduce Cash Burn

Restore Profitability& Rebuild Margins

Repair Balance Sheets

Contain the Virus

Stabilize the Economy

Increase Efficiency

Aviation-Government Collaboration on Health/Facilitation/Safety/Technology

Business Model Adaptation + Cost-Reduction Initiatives + Debt ReductionCost-Reduction Initiatives + Business Model Adaptation + Debt Reduction

Page 5: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

5

Airlines Are Making an Unprecedented Level of Investment in the Safety and Wellbeing of Their Customers and Workers, Instituting Multiple Layers of Protection Throughout the Experience

Requiring face coverings

Using HEPA filtration systems

Disinfecting surfaces (e.g., tables, buckles)

Sterilizing w/electrostatic sprayers & foggers

Sanitizing counters, kiosks & gate areas

Reducing touchpoints (e.g., beverage service)

Adjusting security screening

Offering touchless check-in

Source: AirlinesTakeAction.com

Partnering With Premier

Medical Institutions

Page 6: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

“When the use of masks is implemented in combination with other measures built into aircraft operations, such as increased ventilation…and disinfection of surfaces, these layered NPIs offer significant protection from acquiring

COVID-19 through air travel.”

“The use of face masks is critically important throughout the air travel process, from entering the airport for departure to leaving the destination airport…”

Page 7: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

This study is the first comprehensive research looking at the entire inflight experience.

The multiple layers of protection against COVID-19 make being on an airplane as safe as if not substantially safer than other routine activities, such as grocery shopping or going to a restaurant.

The research found that there is a very low risk of virus transmission on airplanes.

The scientists concluded that the ventilation on airplanes is so good that it effectively counters the proximity travelers are subject to during flights.

Page 8: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

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New U.S. Cases of COVID-19 Reached Peak of 244,700 in Week Ending Jan. 11, 2021UK Exceeding France and Italy Combined; Mexico Cases on the Rise

Source: World Health Organization and the COVID Tracking Project

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USA China Japan India UK France + Italy Brazil Mexico

New Cases of COVID-19 (7-Day Moving Average)

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COVID-Related U.S. Hospitalizations Peaked Above 132,000 on January 6-7, 2021~23,000 COVID-19 Patients Currently in Intensive Care, With ~7,700 on Ventilators

Source: The COVID Tracking Project and Centers for Disease Control

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Hospitalized In ICU On Ventilator Deaths

COVID-19 Hospitalizations* in the United States

* Confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases per the expanded Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists definition of April 5, 2020 approved by CDC

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The Global Economy Is Projected to Grow ~6% in 2021

5.7 4.6 3.2 2.4 3.2 4.1 3.5

9.4 10.4

3.4 3.9

Source: Wells Fargo Securities (Jan. 13, 2021)

“Despite some near-term moderation, we are a bit more constructive on 2021 as a whole thanks to several newdevelopments. For one, the economy stands to benefit from the recent injection of fiscal support... What’s more, …the pace of vaccine deployment is gaining momentum. According to health experts, achieving herd immunity to COVID is still possible by the end of the summer. This would unlock many of the activities rendered unfeasible by a highly transmissible virus… We look for real GDP to expand by 4.6% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022.”

Wells Fargo Forecasts for 2021 Real GDP Growth (%)

Page 11: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

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In Most Recent Week, U.S. Airline Passenger Volumes Were 64% Below Pre-Pandemic LevelsDomestic Air Travel Down 64%, International Air Travel Down 67%

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Domestic USA Canada Mexico Atlantic Latin (excl. Mexico) Pacific

7-Day Rolling Year-Over-Year Change (%) in Onboard Passengers*

Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners) * Onboard (“segment”) passengers

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In Most Recent Week, U.S. Passenger Airline Departures Were 43% Below Pre-Pandemic LevelsDomestic Flights Operated Down 43%, International Flights Operated Down 43%

Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners)

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Domestic USA Canada Mexico Atlantic Latin (excl. Mexico) Pacific

7-Day Rolling Year-Over-Year Change in Aircraft Departures (%)

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DC and Northeast Seeing Largest Service Reductions; Rockies and Great Plains Seeing Least% Change in Scheduled Passenger Flights: January 2021 vs. January 2020

Source: Diio by Cirium published schedules (Jan. 15, 2021) for all U.S. and non-U.S. airlines providing scheduled service to all U.S. and non-U.S. destinations

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Domestic Load Factor Averaged 49% in Most Recent Week, Versus 80% in Same Week of 2020

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2019 2020 2021

Weekly Average Domestic U.S. Load Factor* (%)

Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners) * Revenue passenger miles divided by available seat miles

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15

In Most Recent Week, Domestic U.S. Flights Averaged 58 PassengersDomestic Flights Averaged ~99 Passengers per Departure Over the Course of 2019

Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners) * Onboard (“segment”) passengers

7-Day Moving Average Onboard Passengers* per Flight

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U.S. Airline Capacity Cuts Have Not Caught Up With the Severe Drop in Demand

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Traffic (RPMs)Capacity (ASMs)

* RPM = revenue passenger mile; ASM = available seat mile

7-Day Rolling YOY Change (%) in Systemwide Traffic and Capacity*

Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners)

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Except for March-May, 2020 Flight Completion Factor Outperformed 2019

U.S. Passenger Airline Flight Completion Factor*

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics * Departures performed as a percent of those scheduled, as reported on a marketing-carrier basis

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2020 2019

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In Most Recent Week, TSA Checkpoint Volumes Fell 64% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Source: Transportation Security Administration

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* U.S. and foreign carrier customers (excluding Known Crewmember® personnel) traversing TSA checkpoints

TSA Traveler Throughput* (7-Day Moving Average, in Thousands)

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19

At U.S. Airports in December, Passenger Volumes Declined Most in Vermont, Least in USVI% Change in Traveler Throughput by U.S. State – December 2020 vs. December 2019

Source: Transportation Security Administration

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20

Hawaii’s Testing-Based Exemption From Quarantine Has Boosted Air TravelMaterially Improved From 94% in First Half of October

Source: Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism

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-Feb

-21

10-M

ar-2

124

-Mar

-21

7-Ap

r-21

21-A

pr-2

15-

May

-21

19-M

ay-2

12-

Jun-

2116

-Jun

-21

30-J

un-2

1

* Daily passenger counts include returning residents, intended residents and visitors but exclude interisland and Canada passengers

% Change vs. 2019 in Air Travel to Hawaii* (7-Day Moving Average)

On 3/26/2020, the State of Hawai’i initiated a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine for all passengers arriving from out of state. Beginning 10/15/2020, subject to specific COVID-19 negative test results, passengers can avoid quarantining.

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21

In December, U.S.-International Air Travel* Fell 76% From 2019 LevelsNon-U.S. Citizen Arrivals Fell 83%; U.S. Citizen Departures Fell 68%

1.1

(2.4)

(64.0)

(99.2) (98.8) (97.0) (92.6) (90.0) (87.8) (83.7) (79.3) (75.7)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr-2

1

May

-21

Jun-

21

Non-U.S. Citizen International Arrivals U.S. Citizen International Departures

% Change vs. 2019 in Total* U.S.-International Air Passengers

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office using DHS I-92 / APIS data * Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation

Page 22: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

22

Of the 25 Largest U.S.-Country Pairs in December 2019, 12 Saw YOY Declines Exceeding 90%U.S.-Mexico and U.S.-Dominican Republic Fell the Least

Top-25 U.S. Country Pairs: % Change in Passengers* From December 2019 to December 2020Sorted left to right by highest volume in December 2019

(38)

(93) (94) (94)(89)

(98)(91) (90)

(26)

(82) (82)

(65)

(44)

(85)

(69)

(97)

(64)

(78)

(98) (98) (94) (91)(98)

(45) (48)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office using DHS I-92 / APIS data * Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation

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23

In December 2020, Mexico Was the Clear Leader for U.S.-International Air TravelTop U.S. Country Pairs Propelled by Beach Seekers and Those Visiting Friends/Relatives

December 2020: Top-25 U.S. Country Pairs by Total Nonstop Air Passengers* (000)

1,84

3

467

216

193

152

120

119

111

108

107

100

99

89

86

79

76

72

70

70

68

68

63

62

60

56

Mex

ico

D.R

.

Col

ombi

a

Can

ada

Jam

aica

Cos

ta R

ica

El S

alva

dor

Cub

a

Pana

ma

UK

Indi

a

Ger

man

y

Turk

ey

Net

herla

nds

Braz

il

Gua

tem

ala

Qat

ar

Hai

ti

Ecua

dor

Arub

a

Baha

mas

Kore

a

Fran

ce

Peru

Japa

n

U.S. Citizens Others

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office using DHS I-92 / APIS data * Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation

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24

Latin American Airports Are the Most Popular Foreign Gateways to/from USA

December 2020: Top-30 Foreign Gateways to/from USA by Total Nonstop Air Passengers* (000)

621

364

267

192

192

131

123

121

119

110

110

108

107

106

90

89

89

86

84

80

76

72

68

65

63

61

61

60

50

47

CU

N

MEX

GD

L

SDQ

SJD

STI

PVR

PUJ

SAL

HAV MBJ

BOG

PTY

LHR

FRA

SJO

IST

AMS

YYZ

DEL

GU

A

DO

H

AUA

PAP

ICN

CD

G

GR

U

LIM

MTY

MD

E

U.S. Citizens Others

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office using DHS I-92 / APIS data * Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation

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25

Corporate Air Travel Has Yet to Recover From the Steep Declines That Began in March

Source: Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC)

(71.7)(88.0)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

12-J

an-2

026

-Jan

-20

9-Fe

b-20

23-F

eb-2

08-

Mar

-20

22-M

ar-2

05-

Apr-2

019

-Apr

-20

3-M

ay-2

017

-May

-20

31-M

ay-2

014

-Jun

-20

28-J

un-2

012

-Jul

-20

26-J

ul-2

09-

Aug-

2023

-Aug

-20

6-Se

p-20

20-S

ep-2

04-

Oct

-20

18-O

ct-2

01-

Nov

-20

15-N

ov-2

029

-Nov

-20

13-D

ec-2

027

-Dec

-20

10-J

an-2

124

-Jan

-21

7-Fe

b-21

21-F

eb-2

17-

Mar

-21

21-M

ar-2

14-

Apr-2

118

-Apr

-21

2-M

ay-2

116

-May

-21

30-M

ay-2

113

-Jun

-21

27-J

un-2

1

All Segments Corporate Segment

* Results do not include sales of tickets purchased directly from airlines and are not net of refunds or exchanges.

% Change vs. 2019 in Weekly Tickets Sold* by U.S. Travel Agencies

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26

“Business Travel” Takes Many FormsSome Are Less Vulnerable to Substitution Than Others

Business DevelopmentClient ConsultationsField Work / Site VisitsProduct Demos / Sales

Industry MeetingsConferences / Conventions

Networking

Commuting to/from WorkCompany Meetings or TrainingTeam-Building / Retreats

Page 27: Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19€¦ · 07/09/2020  · 16-Nov. 23-Nov. 30-Nov. 7-Dec. 14-Dec. 21-Dec. 28-Dec. China. Japan. India. Italy. Spain. Brazil. USA (CDC) New Cases of COVID

27

The Rapid Decline of Demand – Especially Business Travel – Has Pummeled Airline Revenues

YOY Change (%) in Operating Revenues

(17)

(86)(74)

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

14.71

15.58 15.06 15.30

12.82

9.96 9.25

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2019 2020

Total Operating Revenues (Cents) per ASM

Source: A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United on a consolidated company basis for systemwide operations

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28

First Nine Months of 2020: U.S. Passenger Airline Operating Revenues Down 61.5% YOYPre-Tax Losses Exceeding $36 Billion Through September

1. Traffic = revenue passenger miles (down 63.5%); yield = revenue per passenger-mile flown (down 5.0%)2. Sale of frequent flyer award miles to airline business partners, transportation of pets, in-sourced aircraft and engine repair, flight simulator rentals, inflight sales, etc.3. Aircraft rents, professional fees, food/beverage, insurance, commissions, GDS fees, communications, advertising, utilities, office supplies, crew hotels, payments to regionals

Change (%) in Operating Revenues and ExpensesYTD 3Q20 vs. YTD 3Q19

(65.

3)

(6.4

)

(21.

1)

(61.

5) (47.

2)

(61.

1) (39.

3) (17.

7)

3.3

(1.0

)

(32.

2)

Psgr

. (1)

Car

go

Oth

er (2

)

Tota

l OpR

ev

Labo

r

Fuel

Mai

nten

ance

Airp

orts

Airc

raft

Oth

er (3

)

Tota

l OpE

xp

Quarterly Pretax Income/Losses ($Billions)

($6.8)

($14.2) ($15.3)

($36.3)1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 YTD

Source: A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United on a consolidated company basis for systemwide operations

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29

Domestic U.S. Air Cargo Demand Continues to Outperform InternationalTrade With Asia Continues to Lead the Recovery for U.S.-International Air Cargo

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, T1 (U.S. carriers) and T-100 International Market (U.S. and foreign flag carriers)

0.5 1.9 3.4

3.8 4.7

13.3

15.8

7.2

21.7

14.3

13.2

(6.7

)

(6.7

)

(13.

6)

(15.

4) (8.4

) (0.7

)

4.5

1.6

10.5

9.5

10.2

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

DecDomestic International

(26.3)

(12.7)

10.5

1.2

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Europe Latin America Asia Canada

% Change YOY in Air Cargo*U.S. Airlines Only

* Pounds of freight and mail enplaned in scheduled and nonscheduled services

% Change YOY in U.S.-International Air Cargo*U.S. and Non-U.S. Airlines

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30

Through 2019, U.S. Airline Passenger Traffic Held Steady, But Air Cargo Volumes Weakened2020 Was An Entirely Different Animal

Sources: Bureau of Transportation Statistics T1 for all airlines providing scheduled and nonscheduled services

(100)(80)(60)(40)(20)

02040

Jan-

16

Apr-1

6

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr-2

1

Jul-2

1

Oct

-21

Jan-

22

Cargo Traffic (RTMs) Passenger Traffic (RPMs)

Change (%) YOY in Traffic* – U.S. Passenger and Cargo Airlines

* RTMs = freight, mail and express revenue ton miles; RPMs = revenue passenger miles

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31

Airlines Are Taking a Wide Variety of Self-Help Actions to Reduce Cash BurnSelected Examples of Actions to Improve Cash Flow From Operations, Investing and Financing

Source: A4A and member companies

» Making historic capacity cuts, parking and/or retiring older aircraft (and, in some cases, entire fleet types)» Utilizing passenger planes on cargo-only missions, either belly-only or belly and main cabin» Cutting executive compensation and implementing voluntary leave and early retirement programs» Freezing hiring and non-essential spending (e.g., employee travel, consultants, events, marketing, training)» Consolidating footprint at airport facilities (e.g., concourses); shuttering lounges; halting real estate projects» Simplifying onboard product (e.g., food and beverage)» Negotiating with vendors: cobranded credit cards, airports (i.e., zero-interest rent deferrals), regional airline

partners (i.e., reduced block hours), fuelers, caterers, etc. to achieve relief on payment terms/timing» Deferring aircraft deliveries and reducing non-aircraft (e.g., ground equipment, IT) capital expenditures» Raising funds via capital markets: borrowing funds via unsecured or secured loans and/or selling stock» Selling/mortgaging aircraft/engines/other assets» Suspending capital return programs, including share repurchases and the payment of future dividends

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32

The Pandemic Has Taken a Material Toll on U.S. Airline EmploymentVoluntary Reductions, Retirements, Job Changes, Employer Shutdowns and Other Factors at Play

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics based on payroll near the 15th of the month

Carrier Universe Scheduled U.S. Passenger Airlines

All U.S. Passengerand Cargo Airlines

Measure FTEs* (000) Headcount (000)

All-Time High Jun-2001: 545.9 May-2001: 760.8

Post-2000 Low Point Apr-2010: 376.7 Apr-2010: 562.3

Pre-COVID Peak Mar-2020: 460.0 Feb-2020: 757.0

Latest Available Data Point Nov-2020: 366.8 Nov-2020: 678.3

Change vs. Pre-COVID (93.3) (78.7)

* Full-time equivalents (FTE) = full-time workers plus 0.5 * part-time workers

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33

CARES Act Payroll Support Program Kept Airline Workers Employed But Left a $3.7B ShortfallPSP Enabled Airlines to Maintain Full Payroll and Accelerate the U.S. Economic Recovery

Sources: U.S. Treasury, A4A, carrier reports, equity analysts and Compass Lexecon

» CARES Act PSP was a pass-through to airline workers –a combination of grants and loans (to be repaid with interest to U.S. Treasury) – for the period April 1-Sept. 30, 2020.

» The law required that airlines: 1) not conduct involuntary furloughs or reduce benefits or rates of pay, 2) comply with minimum air service obligations 3) abide by restrictions on executive compensation, 4) repay ~29% of the funds (plus interest) to Treasury and 5) issue warrants to Treasury.

» For the nine largest passenger airlines – after deducting the amount repayable to U.S. Treasury – PSP awards covered just 82% of payroll expenses, leaving them with a $3.7B shortfall for the applicable six-month period.

» Economic consulting firm Compass Lexecon estimated that, by keeping their workers employed through Sept. 30, PSP awards to U.S. passenger carriers saved U.S. Treasury $6.0-10.2B and state treasuries $3.2-5.5B.

* Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United for April 1-Sept. 30, 2020

$16.3

$22.8

$6.6

($3.7)

Total PSPAwards

Repayable toGovernment

PayrollExpenses

PSP Shortfall

$19.9

PSP Tally ($ Billions) for Large U.S. Passenger Carriers*

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34

U.S. Passenger Carriers Have Drawn ~$19 Billion in CARES Act LoansFunds Intended to Help Airlines Continue Operations While Demand Remains Impaired

$7,500

$5,170$1,948

$1,928 $725 $622 $574 $201 $77 $45 $34 $18,824

Source: U.S. Treasury * For AAL/ALK/HA/JBLU/UAL, interest rates range from LIBOR + 2.5% to LIBOR + 3.5% and maturities range from 6/30/2024 to 9/29/2025

CARES Act Secured Loans (Millions)

“The loan proceeds will be used to provide liquidity to continue the Company’s operations… Treasury will receive warrants to purchase common

stock equal to 10% of the total loan amount drawn.” (U.S. Treasury)

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35

From March to November 2020, U.S. Passenger Airline Employment Fell by 93,283 FTEs (20%)Over the Past Two Decades, Job Growth Has Closely Tracked the Industry’s Financial Health

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics for scheduled U.S. passenger airlines (i.e., all that report scheduled passenger revenue)

Jun-2001, 545.9

Apr-2010376.7

Mar-2020460.0

Nov-2020366.8

325350375400425450475500525550

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

U.S. Scheduled Passenger Airline Full-Time Equivalent Employees (000s)

All-Time High

Lowest Since 1Q87

Pre-COVID Peak

Down ~169K (31%)

Up ~83K (22%)

Lowest Since 2Q86

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36

U.S. Passenger Airlines Entered 2021 With a 19% Smaller FleetAccounting for Retirements, Disposals and Deliveries = Net Reduction of 1,109 Aircraft

Number of Active Aircraft*

1,810 1,517

3,475 2,847

495

307

5,780

4,671

12/31/2019 12/31/2020

Regional Single-Aisle Twin-Aisle

Source: Global Eagle's masFlight Aviation Platform * Operated by or on behalf of Alaska/Allegiant/American/Delta/Frontier/Hawaiian/JetBlue/Southwest/Spirit/Sun Country in any of the previous seven days

» 293 (16%) fewer regional aircraft

» 628 (18%) fewer single-aisle aircraft

» 188 (38%) fewer twin-aisle aircraft

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37

U.S. Airlines Have Faced a Highly Elevated Breakeven Load Factor in 2020Expected to Remain Elevated Through First Quarter of 2021 on Low Yield and High Unit Cost

77 75 75 7679

124

100 938974

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2019 2020 2021

Breakeven Load Factor* (%)

Source: Analyst estimates for publicly traded U.S. passenger airlines

Estim

ate

Estim

ate

Estim

ate

* Includes interest expense and non-operating costs but excludes special items (e.g., CARES Act Payroll Support Program receipts) and cargo revenue

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38

Collectively, U.S. Airlines Expect Cash Burn to Persist Through Much of 2021Given the Dearth of Demand (Especially Business Travel), Cost Reduction Is Paramount

Source: A4A and various airline equity analysts

($156) ($147) ($143)

Jan Feb Mar

U.S. Passenger Airlines: Estimated Average Daily Cash Burn* (in Millions)

* Ticket and cargo sales - cash operating expenses - cash refunds - capital expenditures - interest expense – repayment of debt

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39

Airlines Are Coping by Taking on Billions in Debt – Up ~63% From YE2019 to YE2020Net Interest Expense Doubled From 2019 to 2020 and Will Approach $14.7B in 2021-2023

108.

1

105.

4

172.

1

167.

2

161.

2

155.

3

2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F 2023F

Year-End Total Debt ($ Billions)

2.0 1.9

3.8

5.24.9

4.6

2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F 2023F

Interest Expense, Net ($ Billions)

“For 2021 and beyond, we anticipate a major deleveraging cycle as the industry will have no choice but to address its significant debt load.” (Deutsche Bank, “Airline Industry Update,” July 1, 2020)

+$67

B

Source: A4A, equity analysts and filings of Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United

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40

In 2020, S&P Has Lowered Its Credit Ratings on Eleven U.S. and Canadian Airlines*Ratings Actions Taken to Reflect Weakened Financial Condition and Heightened Risk

Source: Standard & Poor’s

Alaska Allegiant American Delta Hawaiian JetBlue Southwest Spirit United Air Canada WestJet

15-Mar 24-Aug

BBB+BBBBBB-BB+BBBB-B+BB-CCC+CCCCCC-CCCD

* Publicly traded U.S. carriers in S&P Global coverage universe

A-

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41

After 9/11 and the Global Financial Crisis, It Took Years for Air-Travel Demand to RecoverPassenger Volumes Took More Than Seven Years to Recover From the Financial Crisis/Oil Spike

Source: A4A Passenger Airline Cost Index and Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Form 41 Schedule T1)

Four-Quarter Rolling Passenger Volume (Millions) and Operating Revenues (Billions)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

4Q00

2Q01

4Q01

2Q02

4Q02

2Q03

4Q03

2Q04

4Q04

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

4Q17

2Q18

4Q18

2Q19

4Q19

2Q20

4Q20

2Q21

4Q21

2Q22

4Q22

2Q23

4Q23

2Q24

4Q24

Passengers Enplaned (Mils) Operating Revenues ($ Bils)

* Passengers enplaned systemwide on U.S. airlines in scheduled and nonscheduled services

9/11

Global Financial Crisis + $100 Oil

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42

In 3Q 2020, Air-Cargo Demand Reached an All-Time HighAir Cargo Had Taken 10 Years to Recover From the Global Financial Crisis and Subsequent Oil Spike

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Form 41 Schedule T1)

Four-Quarter Rolling Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles* (Billions)

05

101520253035404550

4Q00

2Q01

4Q01

2Q02

4Q02

2Q03

4Q03

2Q04

4Q04

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

4Q17

2Q18

4Q18

2Q19

4Q19

2Q20

4Q20

2Q21

4Q21

2Q22

4Q22

2Q23

4Q23

2Q24

4Q24

* Cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) flown on U.S. passenger and cargo-only airlines in scheduled and nonscheduled services

9/11 Global Financial Crisis + Oil Spike

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Pandemic-Driven Technology Acceptance, Digital Competence and Enhanced Cleaning Protocols Will Endure, and Airlines and Airports Will Continue to Invest Accordingly

Source: McKinsey & Company interview with Massachusetts Port Authority CEO Lisa Wieland (Nov. 20, 2020)

“COVID-19 has brought about an acceleration of digital competency across demographic cohorts. We have a lot of different people who fly through the airport. We are constantly thinking about the experience we present to them. And if people have become more technology savvy, more digitally competent, that means we can accelerate and roll out the contactless passenger journey across many platforms—and there will be an acceptance of and a desire for them.”

“Airports and airplanes are cleaner than they’ve ever been and will continue to be that way because it’s important for restoring confidence in air travel. We expect the new hygiene and enhanced-cleaning protocols we’ve implemented to continue. Passengers can expect that from airports and airlines going forward.”

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