tracking the impacts of covid-19€¦ · 07/09/2020 · 16-nov. 23-nov. 30-nov. 7-dec. 14-dec....
TRANSCRIPT
Updated January 19, 2021
Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19
2
» Air cargo demand reached an all-time high in 3Q 2020.
» In contrast, air-travel demand remains severely depressed, but could pick up meaningfully if harmonized testing regimes replace travel restrictions and vaccination rates increase.
» As an industry, U.S. airlines are unlikely to achieve cash break-even during 1H 2021.
» It will take years for airlines to retire the newly accumulated billions of dollars of debt.
» The sizable associated interest expense will limit their wherewithal to rehire and reinvest.
Key Points
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We Are Unlikely to See a Return to 2019 Passenger Volumes Before 2023-20242021-2022 Clouded by Uncertainty re: State of Pandemic, Vaccination/Therapeutics, Economy
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2020E 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
Pessimistic OptimisticSource: A4A and various airline equity analysts
U.S. Airline Passenger Traffic Change (%) vs. 2019The Bull Case• Better-than-expected vaccine efficacy• Accelerating rates of vaccination (worldwide)• Standardization of testing in lieu of restrictions• Better-than-expected economic outlook/stimulus• Business travel resurgence (healthy markets)• Personal travel resurgence (record savings)• Virtual interactions and dispersion of office workers
(“self remotification”) and facilities stimulate demand
The Bear Case• Vaccines fail to address new strain(s) of COVID• Low rates of vaccine deployment or acceptance• Virus persists as people avoid masks and distance• Travel restrictions remain despite vaccines/testing• Economy falters• Business travel lags as companies conserve cash• Virtual meeting technologies displace future travel
due to cost and/or climate considerations
4
Aviation Is in the Early Innings of a Multiyear, Multistage Recovery
Traffic Recovery
Revenue Recovery
Financial Recovery
Reduce Cash Burn
Restore Profitability& Rebuild Margins
Repair Balance Sheets
Contain the Virus
Stabilize the Economy
Increase Efficiency
Aviation-Government Collaboration on Health/Facilitation/Safety/Technology
Business Model Adaptation + Cost-Reduction Initiatives + Debt ReductionCost-Reduction Initiatives + Business Model Adaptation + Debt Reduction
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Airlines Are Making an Unprecedented Level of Investment in the Safety and Wellbeing of Their Customers and Workers, Instituting Multiple Layers of Protection Throughout the Experience
Requiring face coverings
Using HEPA filtration systems
Disinfecting surfaces (e.g., tables, buckles)
Sterilizing w/electrostatic sprayers & foggers
Sanitizing counters, kiosks & gate areas
Reducing touchpoints (e.g., beverage service)
Adjusting security screening
Offering touchless check-in
Source: AirlinesTakeAction.com
Partnering With Premier
Medical Institutions
“When the use of masks is implemented in combination with other measures built into aircraft operations, such as increased ventilation…and disinfection of surfaces, these layered NPIs offer significant protection from acquiring
COVID-19 through air travel.”
“The use of face masks is critically important throughout the air travel process, from entering the airport for departure to leaving the destination airport…”
This study is the first comprehensive research looking at the entire inflight experience.
The multiple layers of protection against COVID-19 make being on an airplane as safe as if not substantially safer than other routine activities, such as grocery shopping or going to a restaurant.
The research found that there is a very low risk of virus transmission on airplanes.
The scientists concluded that the ventilation on airplanes is so good that it effectively counters the proximity travelers are subject to during flights.
8
New U.S. Cases of COVID-19 Reached Peak of 244,700 in Week Ending Jan. 11, 2021UK Exceeding France and Italy Combined; Mexico Cases on the Rise
Source: World Health Organization and the COVID Tracking Project
025,00050,00075,000
100,000125,000150,000175,000200,000225,000250,000
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-Jan
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USA China Japan India UK France + Italy Brazil Mexico
New Cases of COVID-19 (7-Day Moving Average)
9
COVID-Related U.S. Hospitalizations Peaked Above 132,000 on January 6-7, 2021~23,000 COVID-19 Patients Currently in Intensive Care, With ~7,700 on Ventilators
Source: The COVID Tracking Project and Centers for Disease Control
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
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100,000
120,000
140,000
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Hospitalized In ICU On Ventilator Deaths
COVID-19 Hospitalizations* in the United States
* Confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases per the expanded Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists definition of April 5, 2020 approved by CDC
10
The Global Economy Is Projected to Grow ~6% in 2021
5.7 4.6 3.2 2.4 3.2 4.1 3.5
9.4 10.4
3.4 3.9
Source: Wells Fargo Securities (Jan. 13, 2021)
“Despite some near-term moderation, we are a bit more constructive on 2021 as a whole thanks to several newdevelopments. For one, the economy stands to benefit from the recent injection of fiscal support... What’s more, …the pace of vaccine deployment is gaining momentum. According to health experts, achieving herd immunity to COVID is still possible by the end of the summer. This would unlock many of the activities rendered unfeasible by a highly transmissible virus… We look for real GDP to expand by 4.6% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022.”
Wells Fargo Forecasts for 2021 Real GDP Growth (%)
11
In Most Recent Week, U.S. Airline Passenger Volumes Were 64% Below Pre-Pandemic LevelsDomestic Air Travel Down 64%, International Air Travel Down 67%
(100)(90)(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)
01020
7-Ja
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04-
Feb-
2018
-Feb
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3-M
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31-M
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-Apr
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09-
Jun-
2023
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2018
-Aug
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029
-Sep
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027
-Oct
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10-N
ov-2
024
-Nov
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8-D
ec-2
022
-Dec
-20
5-Ja
n-21
19-J
an-2
12-
Feb-
2116
-Feb
-21
2-M
ar-2
116
-Mar
-21
30-M
ar-2
113
-Apr
-21
27-A
pr-2
111
-May
-21
25-M
ay-2
18-
Jun-
2122
-Jun
-21
Domestic USA Canada Mexico Atlantic Latin (excl. Mexico) Pacific
7-Day Rolling Year-Over-Year Change (%) in Onboard Passengers*
Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners) * Onboard (“segment”) passengers
12
In Most Recent Week, U.S. Passenger Airline Departures Were 43% Below Pre-Pandemic LevelsDomestic Flights Operated Down 43%, International Flights Operated Down 43%
Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners)
(100)(90)(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)
01020
7-Ja
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21-J
an-2
04-
Feb-
2018
-Feb
-20
3-M
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017
-Mar
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31-M
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-Apr
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2018
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8-D
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19-J
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Feb-
2116
-Feb
-21
2-M
ar-2
116
-Mar
-21
30-M
ar-2
113
-Apr
-21
27-A
pr-2
111
-May
-21
25-M
ay-2
18-
Jun-
2122
-Jun
-21
Domestic USA Canada Mexico Atlantic Latin (excl. Mexico) Pacific
7-Day Rolling Year-Over-Year Change in Aircraft Departures (%)
13
DC and Northeast Seeing Largest Service Reductions; Rockies and Great Plains Seeing Least% Change in Scheduled Passenger Flights: January 2021 vs. January 2020
Source: Diio by Cirium published schedules (Jan. 15, 2021) for all U.S. and non-U.S. airlines providing scheduled service to all U.S. and non-U.S. destinations
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U.S. Average
14
Domestic Load Factor Averaged 49% in Most Recent Week, Versus 80% in Same Week of 2020
48.7
0102030405060708090
100
3-Ja
n10
-Jan
17-J
an24
-Jan
31-J
an7-
Feb
14-F
eb21
-Feb
28-F
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Mar
14-M
ar21
-Mar
28-M
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Apr
11-A
pr18
-Apr
25-A
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May
9-M
ay16
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23-M
ay30
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6-Ju
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4-Ju
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18-J
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ug22
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29-A
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12-S
ep19
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26-S
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10-O
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24-O
ct31
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ov14
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21-N
ov28
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ec12
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19-D
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2019 2020 2021
Weekly Average Domestic U.S. Load Factor* (%)
Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners) * Revenue passenger miles divided by available seat miles
15
In Most Recent Week, Domestic U.S. Flights Averaged 58 PassengersDomestic Flights Averaged ~99 Passengers per Departure Over the Course of 2019
Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners) * Onboard (“segment”) passengers
7-Day Moving Average Onboard Passengers* per Flight
0255075
100125150175200225250
7-Ja
n-19
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9
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1
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1
Domestic USA Canada Mexico Atlantic Latin (excl. Mexico) Pacific
16
U.S. Airline Capacity Cuts Have Not Caught Up With the Severe Drop in Demand
(68)
(46)
(100)(90)(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)
01020
7-Ja
n-20
21-J
an-2
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Feb-
2018
-Feb
-20
3-M
ar-2
017
-Mar
-20
31-M
ar-2
014
-Apr
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28-A
pr-2
012
-May
-20
26-M
ay-2
09-
Jun-
2023
-Jun
-20
7-Ju
l-20
21-J
ul-2
04-
Aug-
2018
-Aug
-20
1-Se
p-20
15-S
ep-2
029
-Sep
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13-O
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027
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024
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8-D
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022
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5-Ja
n-21
19-J
an-2
12-
Feb-
2116
-Feb
-21
2-M
ar-2
116
-Mar
-21
30-M
ar-2
113
-Apr
-21
27-A
pr-2
111
-May
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25-M
ay-2
18-
Jun-
2122
-Jun
-21
Traffic (RPMs)Capacity (ASMs)
* RPM = revenue passenger mile; ASM = available seat mile
7-Day Rolling YOY Change (%) in Systemwide Traffic and Capacity*
Source: A4A member passenger airlines as reported to A4A on a consolidated company basis (including branded code share partners)
17
Except for March-May, 2020 Flight Completion Factor Outperformed 2019
U.S. Passenger Airline Flight Completion Factor*
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics * Departures performed as a percent of those scheduled, as reported on a marketing-carrier basis
98.7 99.0
83.1
58.7
93.699.6 99.2 98.9 99.3 99.5 99.5
50556065707580859095
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2019
18
In Most Recent Week, TSA Checkpoint Volumes Fell 64% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
Source: Transportation Security Administration
0250500750
1,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,750
1-Ja
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Jan
15-J
an22
-Jan
29-J
an5-
Feb
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eb19
-Feb
26-F
eb5-
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12-M
ar19
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26-M
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Apr
9-Ap
r16
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23-A
pr30
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ay14
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21-M
ay28
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31-D
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2019 2020 2021
* U.S. and foreign carrier customers (excluding Known Crewmember® personnel) traversing TSA checkpoints
TSA Traveler Throughput* (7-Day Moving Average, in Thousands)
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At U.S. Airports in December, Passenger Volumes Declined Most in Vermont, Least in USVI% Change in Traveler Throughput by U.S. State – December 2020 vs. December 2019
Source: Transportation Security Administration
20
Hawaii’s Testing-Based Exemption From Quarantine Has Boosted Air TravelMaterially Improved From 94% in First Half of October
Source: Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism
(100)(90)(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)
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029
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May
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Jun-
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04-
Nov
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02-
Dec
-20
16-D
ec-2
030
-Dec
-20
13-J
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127
-Jan
-21
10-F
eb-2
124
-Feb
-21
10-M
ar-2
124
-Mar
-21
7-Ap
r-21
21-A
pr-2
15-
May
-21
19-M
ay-2
12-
Jun-
2116
-Jun
-21
30-J
un-2
1
* Daily passenger counts include returning residents, intended residents and visitors but exclude interisland and Canada passengers
% Change vs. 2019 in Air Travel to Hawaii* (7-Day Moving Average)
On 3/26/2020, the State of Hawai’i initiated a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine for all passengers arriving from out of state. Beginning 10/15/2020, subject to specific COVID-19 negative test results, passengers can avoid quarantining.
21
In December, U.S.-International Air Travel* Fell 76% From 2019 LevelsNon-U.S. Citizen Arrivals Fell 83%; U.S. Citizen Departures Fell 68%
1.1
(2.4)
(64.0)
(99.2) (98.8) (97.0) (92.6) (90.0) (87.8) (83.7) (79.3) (75.7)
(100)
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr-2
1
May
-21
Jun-
21
Non-U.S. Citizen International Arrivals U.S. Citizen International Departures
% Change vs. 2019 in Total* U.S.-International Air Passengers
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office using DHS I-92 / APIS data * Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation
22
Of the 25 Largest U.S.-Country Pairs in December 2019, 12 Saw YOY Declines Exceeding 90%U.S.-Mexico and U.S.-Dominican Republic Fell the Least
Top-25 U.S. Country Pairs: % Change in Passengers* From December 2019 to December 2020Sorted left to right by highest volume in December 2019
(38)
(93) (94) (94)(89)
(98)(91) (90)
(26)
(82) (82)
(65)
(44)
(85)
(69)
(97)
(64)
(78)
(98) (98) (94) (91)(98)
(45) (48)
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office using DHS I-92 / APIS data * Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation
23
In December 2020, Mexico Was the Clear Leader for U.S.-International Air TravelTop U.S. Country Pairs Propelled by Beach Seekers and Those Visiting Friends/Relatives
December 2020: Top-25 U.S. Country Pairs by Total Nonstop Air Passengers* (000)
1,84
3
467
216
193
152
120
119
111
108
107
100
99
89
86
79
76
72
70
70
68
68
63
62
60
56
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U.S. Citizens Others
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office using DHS I-92 / APIS data * Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation
24
Latin American Airports Are the Most Popular Foreign Gateways to/from USA
December 2020: Top-30 Foreign Gateways to/from USA by Total Nonstop Air Passengers* (000)
621
364
267
192
192
131
123
121
119
110
110
108
107
106
90
89
89
86
84
80
76
72
68
65
63
61
61
60
50
47
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MEX
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GR
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MD
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U.S. Citizens Others
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office using DHS I-92 / APIS data * Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation
25
Corporate Air Travel Has Yet to Recover From the Steep Declines That Began in March
Source: Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC)
(71.7)(88.0)
(100)
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
12-J
an-2
026
-Jan
-20
9-Fe
b-20
23-F
eb-2
08-
Mar
-20
22-M
ar-2
05-
Apr-2
019
-Apr
-20
3-M
ay-2
017
-May
-20
31-M
ay-2
014
-Jun
-20
28-J
un-2
012
-Jul
-20
26-J
ul-2
09-
Aug-
2023
-Aug
-20
6-Se
p-20
20-S
ep-2
04-
Oct
-20
18-O
ct-2
01-
Nov
-20
15-N
ov-2
029
-Nov
-20
13-D
ec-2
027
-Dec
-20
10-J
an-2
124
-Jan
-21
7-Fe
b-21
21-F
eb-2
17-
Mar
-21
21-M
ar-2
14-
Apr-2
118
-Apr
-21
2-M
ay-2
116
-May
-21
30-M
ay-2
113
-Jun
-21
27-J
un-2
1
All Segments Corporate Segment
* Results do not include sales of tickets purchased directly from airlines and are not net of refunds or exchanges.
% Change vs. 2019 in Weekly Tickets Sold* by U.S. Travel Agencies
26
“Business Travel” Takes Many FormsSome Are Less Vulnerable to Substitution Than Others
Business DevelopmentClient ConsultationsField Work / Site VisitsProduct Demos / Sales
Industry MeetingsConferences / Conventions
Networking
Commuting to/from WorkCompany Meetings or TrainingTeam-Building / Retreats
27
The Rapid Decline of Demand – Especially Business Travel – Has Pummeled Airline Revenues
YOY Change (%) in Operating Revenues
(17)
(86)(74)
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20
14.71
15.58 15.06 15.30
12.82
9.96 9.25
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2019 2020
Total Operating Revenues (Cents) per ASM
Source: A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United on a consolidated company basis for systemwide operations
28
First Nine Months of 2020: U.S. Passenger Airline Operating Revenues Down 61.5% YOYPre-Tax Losses Exceeding $36 Billion Through September
1. Traffic = revenue passenger miles (down 63.5%); yield = revenue per passenger-mile flown (down 5.0%)2. Sale of frequent flyer award miles to airline business partners, transportation of pets, in-sourced aircraft and engine repair, flight simulator rentals, inflight sales, etc.3. Aircraft rents, professional fees, food/beverage, insurance, commissions, GDS fees, communications, advertising, utilities, office supplies, crew hotels, payments to regionals
Change (%) in Operating Revenues and ExpensesYTD 3Q20 vs. YTD 3Q19
(65.
3)
(6.4
)
(21.
1)
(61.
5) (47.
2)
(61.
1) (39.
3) (17.
7)
3.3
(1.0
)
(32.
2)
Psgr
. (1)
Car
go
Oth
er (2
)
Tota
l OpR
ev
Labo
r
Fuel
Mai
nten
ance
Airp
orts
Airc
raft
Oth
er (3
)
Tota
l OpE
xp
Quarterly Pretax Income/Losses ($Billions)
($6.8)
($14.2) ($15.3)
($36.3)1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 YTD
Source: A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United on a consolidated company basis for systemwide operations
29
Domestic U.S. Air Cargo Demand Continues to Outperform InternationalTrade With Asia Continues to Lead the Recovery for U.S.-International Air Cargo
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, T1 (U.S. carriers) and T-100 International Market (U.S. and foreign flag carriers)
0.5 1.9 3.4
3.8 4.7
13.3
15.8
7.2
21.7
14.3
13.2
(6.7
)
(6.7
)
(13.
6)
(15.
4) (8.4
) (0.7
)
4.5
1.6
10.5
9.5
10.2
Jan
Feb
Mar Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
DecDomestic International
(26.3)
(12.7)
10.5
1.2
Jan
Feb
Mar Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Europe Latin America Asia Canada
% Change YOY in Air Cargo*U.S. Airlines Only
* Pounds of freight and mail enplaned in scheduled and nonscheduled services
% Change YOY in U.S.-International Air Cargo*U.S. and Non-U.S. Airlines
30
Through 2019, U.S. Airline Passenger Traffic Held Steady, But Air Cargo Volumes Weakened2020 Was An Entirely Different Animal
Sources: Bureau of Transportation Statistics T1 for all airlines providing scheduled and nonscheduled services
(100)(80)(60)(40)(20)
02040
Jan-
16
Apr-1
6
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr-2
1
Jul-2
1
Oct
-21
Jan-
22
Cargo Traffic (RTMs) Passenger Traffic (RPMs)
Change (%) YOY in Traffic* – U.S. Passenger and Cargo Airlines
* RTMs = freight, mail and express revenue ton miles; RPMs = revenue passenger miles
31
Airlines Are Taking a Wide Variety of Self-Help Actions to Reduce Cash BurnSelected Examples of Actions to Improve Cash Flow From Operations, Investing and Financing
Source: A4A and member companies
» Making historic capacity cuts, parking and/or retiring older aircraft (and, in some cases, entire fleet types)» Utilizing passenger planes on cargo-only missions, either belly-only or belly and main cabin» Cutting executive compensation and implementing voluntary leave and early retirement programs» Freezing hiring and non-essential spending (e.g., employee travel, consultants, events, marketing, training)» Consolidating footprint at airport facilities (e.g., concourses); shuttering lounges; halting real estate projects» Simplifying onboard product (e.g., food and beverage)» Negotiating with vendors: cobranded credit cards, airports (i.e., zero-interest rent deferrals), regional airline
partners (i.e., reduced block hours), fuelers, caterers, etc. to achieve relief on payment terms/timing» Deferring aircraft deliveries and reducing non-aircraft (e.g., ground equipment, IT) capital expenditures» Raising funds via capital markets: borrowing funds via unsecured or secured loans and/or selling stock» Selling/mortgaging aircraft/engines/other assets» Suspending capital return programs, including share repurchases and the payment of future dividends
32
The Pandemic Has Taken a Material Toll on U.S. Airline EmploymentVoluntary Reductions, Retirements, Job Changes, Employer Shutdowns and Other Factors at Play
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics based on payroll near the 15th of the month
Carrier Universe Scheduled U.S. Passenger Airlines
All U.S. Passengerand Cargo Airlines
Measure FTEs* (000) Headcount (000)
All-Time High Jun-2001: 545.9 May-2001: 760.8
Post-2000 Low Point Apr-2010: 376.7 Apr-2010: 562.3
Pre-COVID Peak Mar-2020: 460.0 Feb-2020: 757.0
Latest Available Data Point Nov-2020: 366.8 Nov-2020: 678.3
Change vs. Pre-COVID (93.3) (78.7)
* Full-time equivalents (FTE) = full-time workers plus 0.5 * part-time workers
33
CARES Act Payroll Support Program Kept Airline Workers Employed But Left a $3.7B ShortfallPSP Enabled Airlines to Maintain Full Payroll and Accelerate the U.S. Economic Recovery
Sources: U.S. Treasury, A4A, carrier reports, equity analysts and Compass Lexecon
» CARES Act PSP was a pass-through to airline workers –a combination of grants and loans (to be repaid with interest to U.S. Treasury) – for the period April 1-Sept. 30, 2020.
» The law required that airlines: 1) not conduct involuntary furloughs or reduce benefits or rates of pay, 2) comply with minimum air service obligations 3) abide by restrictions on executive compensation, 4) repay ~29% of the funds (plus interest) to Treasury and 5) issue warrants to Treasury.
» For the nine largest passenger airlines – after deducting the amount repayable to U.S. Treasury – PSP awards covered just 82% of payroll expenses, leaving them with a $3.7B shortfall for the applicable six-month period.
» Economic consulting firm Compass Lexecon estimated that, by keeping their workers employed through Sept. 30, PSP awards to U.S. passenger carriers saved U.S. Treasury $6.0-10.2B and state treasuries $3.2-5.5B.
* Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United for April 1-Sept. 30, 2020
$16.3
$22.8
$6.6
($3.7)
Total PSPAwards
Repayable toGovernment
PayrollExpenses
PSP Shortfall
$19.9
PSP Tally ($ Billions) for Large U.S. Passenger Carriers*
34
U.S. Passenger Carriers Have Drawn ~$19 Billion in CARES Act LoansFunds Intended to Help Airlines Continue Operations While Demand Remains Impaired
$7,500
$5,170$1,948
$1,928 $725 $622 $574 $201 $77 $45 $34 $18,824
Source: U.S. Treasury * For AAL/ALK/HA/JBLU/UAL, interest rates range from LIBOR + 2.5% to LIBOR + 3.5% and maturities range from 6/30/2024 to 9/29/2025
CARES Act Secured Loans (Millions)
“The loan proceeds will be used to provide liquidity to continue the Company’s operations… Treasury will receive warrants to purchase common
stock equal to 10% of the total loan amount drawn.” (U.S. Treasury)
35
From March to November 2020, U.S. Passenger Airline Employment Fell by 93,283 FTEs (20%)Over the Past Two Decades, Job Growth Has Closely Tracked the Industry’s Financial Health
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics for scheduled U.S. passenger airlines (i.e., all that report scheduled passenger revenue)
Jun-2001, 545.9
Apr-2010376.7
Mar-2020460.0
Nov-2020366.8
325350375400425450475500525550
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
U.S. Scheduled Passenger Airline Full-Time Equivalent Employees (000s)
All-Time High
Lowest Since 1Q87
Pre-COVID Peak
Down ~169K (31%)
Up ~83K (22%)
Lowest Since 2Q86
36
U.S. Passenger Airlines Entered 2021 With a 19% Smaller FleetAccounting for Retirements, Disposals and Deliveries = Net Reduction of 1,109 Aircraft
Number of Active Aircraft*
1,810 1,517
3,475 2,847
495
307
5,780
4,671
12/31/2019 12/31/2020
Regional Single-Aisle Twin-Aisle
Source: Global Eagle's masFlight Aviation Platform * Operated by or on behalf of Alaska/Allegiant/American/Delta/Frontier/Hawaiian/JetBlue/Southwest/Spirit/Sun Country in any of the previous seven days
» 293 (16%) fewer regional aircraft
» 628 (18%) fewer single-aisle aircraft
» 188 (38%) fewer twin-aisle aircraft
37
U.S. Airlines Have Faced a Highly Elevated Breakeven Load Factor in 2020Expected to Remain Elevated Through First Quarter of 2021 on Low Yield and High Unit Cost
77 75 75 7679
124
100 938974
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2019 2020 2021
Breakeven Load Factor* (%)
Source: Analyst estimates for publicly traded U.S. passenger airlines
Estim
ate
Estim
ate
Estim
ate
* Includes interest expense and non-operating costs but excludes special items (e.g., CARES Act Payroll Support Program receipts) and cargo revenue
38
Collectively, U.S. Airlines Expect Cash Burn to Persist Through Much of 2021Given the Dearth of Demand (Especially Business Travel), Cost Reduction Is Paramount
Source: A4A and various airline equity analysts
($156) ($147) ($143)
Jan Feb Mar
U.S. Passenger Airlines: Estimated Average Daily Cash Burn* (in Millions)
* Ticket and cargo sales - cash operating expenses - cash refunds - capital expenditures - interest expense – repayment of debt
39
Airlines Are Coping by Taking on Billions in Debt – Up ~63% From YE2019 to YE2020Net Interest Expense Doubled From 2019 to 2020 and Will Approach $14.7B in 2021-2023
108.
1
105.
4
172.
1
167.
2
161.
2
155.
3
2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F 2023F
Year-End Total Debt ($ Billions)
2.0 1.9
3.8
5.24.9
4.6
2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F 2023F
Interest Expense, Net ($ Billions)
“For 2021 and beyond, we anticipate a major deleveraging cycle as the industry will have no choice but to address its significant debt load.” (Deutsche Bank, “Airline Industry Update,” July 1, 2020)
+$67
B
Source: A4A, equity analysts and filings of Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United
40
In 2020, S&P Has Lowered Its Credit Ratings on Eleven U.S. and Canadian Airlines*Ratings Actions Taken to Reflect Weakened Financial Condition and Heightened Risk
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Alaska Allegiant American Delta Hawaiian JetBlue Southwest Spirit United Air Canada WestJet
15-Mar 24-Aug
BBB+BBBBBB-BB+BBBB-B+BB-CCC+CCCCCC-CCCD
* Publicly traded U.S. carriers in S&P Global coverage universe
A-
41
After 9/11 and the Global Financial Crisis, It Took Years for Air-Travel Demand to RecoverPassenger Volumes Took More Than Seven Years to Recover From the Financial Crisis/Oil Spike
Source: A4A Passenger Airline Cost Index and Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Form 41 Schedule T1)
Four-Quarter Rolling Passenger Volume (Millions) and Operating Revenues (Billions)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
4Q17
2Q18
4Q18
2Q19
4Q19
2Q20
4Q20
2Q21
4Q21
2Q22
4Q22
2Q23
4Q23
2Q24
4Q24
Passengers Enplaned (Mils) Operating Revenues ($ Bils)
* Passengers enplaned systemwide on U.S. airlines in scheduled and nonscheduled services
9/11
Global Financial Crisis + $100 Oil
42
In 3Q 2020, Air-Cargo Demand Reached an All-Time HighAir Cargo Had Taken 10 Years to Recover From the Global Financial Crisis and Subsequent Oil Spike
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Form 41 Schedule T1)
Four-Quarter Rolling Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles* (Billions)
05
101520253035404550
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
4Q17
2Q18
4Q18
2Q19
4Q19
2Q20
4Q20
2Q21
4Q21
2Q22
4Q22
2Q23
4Q23
2Q24
4Q24
* Cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) flown on U.S. passenger and cargo-only airlines in scheduled and nonscheduled services
9/11 Global Financial Crisis + Oil Spike
43
Pandemic-Driven Technology Acceptance, Digital Competence and Enhanced Cleaning Protocols Will Endure, and Airlines and Airports Will Continue to Invest Accordingly
Source: McKinsey & Company interview with Massachusetts Port Authority CEO Lisa Wieland (Nov. 20, 2020)
“COVID-19 has brought about an acceleration of digital competency across demographic cohorts. We have a lot of different people who fly through the airport. We are constantly thinking about the experience we present to them. And if people have become more technology savvy, more digitally competent, that means we can accelerate and roll out the contactless passenger journey across many platforms—and there will be an acceptance of and a desire for them.”
“Airports and airplanes are cleaner than they’ve ever been and will continue to be that way because it’s important for restoring confidence in air travel. We expect the new hygiene and enhanced-cleaning protocols we’ve implemented to continue. Passengers can expect that from airports and airlines going forward.”
44