tracking tropical cyclones in the northwest pacific during el nino
DESCRIPTION
Andy Chan Environmental and Water Resources Engineering University of Texas at Austin. Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific During El Nino. webspace.utexas.edu/zimmeau/www/gis. EAST ASIA. North Korea. South Korea. Japan. China. Taiwan. Macau. The Philippines. Vietnam. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific During
El Nino
Andy ChanEnvironmental and Water Resources
EngineeringUniversity of Texas at Austinwebspace.utexas.edu/zimmeau/www/gis
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EAST ASIA
China
Vietnam
North Korea
SouthKorea
Japan
Taiwan
ThePhilippines
Macau
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Data Source
• Joint Typhoon Warning Centerhttp://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/best_tracks/wpindex.html
• NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
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Dr. Johnny Chan’s Observation
Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Nino and La Nina events. J. Climate,
13, 2960-2972
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Determining El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral Years
Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov ENL
1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 L
1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 N
1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 N
1991 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 E
1992 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N
1993 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
1994 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 E
1995 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 L
1996 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N
1997 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 E
1998 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 L
1999 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 L
2000 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 L
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N
2002 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 E
2003 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
2004 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 E
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Raw Data
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Convert Points to Polygon
http://www.xtoolspro.com/tools.html
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POINTS AND POLYLINE
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THE GRID
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Neutral Years
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El Nino Years
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La Nina Years
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Difference between El Nino and Neutral Years
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Difference between La Nina and Neutral Years
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Conclusion
El Nino La Nina
South China Sea
Below Normal
Above Normal
East Asia (Japan)
Above Normal
Below Normal
Matched with the observations in Dr. Chan’s paper.