trade flows, economic development and maritime transport ...trade relations (import + export)...

Trade Flows, Economic Development andMaritime Transport in Mediterranean area

Naples, April 15th 2013

Luca ForteSRM – Head of Med Observatory

1

� Italian business in the MED countries

AGENDA

� Trade relations between EU countries and theMediterranean area

� Final remarks

� Maritime Transport in the Mediterranean

� The growing importance of Mediterranean

The growing importance of Mediterranean

2

The weight of the Mediterranean area on some global quantities

2.0% 2.0%

1.3%

2.7%2.5%

2.6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

GDP EXPORT FDI

2001 2010

Source: SRM elaboration on IMF data (WEO october 2012)

The MED Area ( in SRM-Med analysis )

3

�Southern Med : Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt

�Eastern Med : Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey

�Adriatic Med : Albania, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

SOUTHERN MED EASTERN MED ADRIATIC MEDSource: SRM elaboration on IMF data (WEO october 2012)

Med Area countries: per-capita GDP in 2011 – US$

4


AGENDA

� Trade relations between EU countries andMediterranean area

� Final remarks



Trade relations (import + export) between European countries and Non EU Med countries: Italy leader

5

�Italy’s foreign trade with Non EU Med countries increased from €37.2 bn in2001 to €67.5 bn in 2012 (+81.5%). Positive projections to 2014.

Main European countries: Total trade with Non EU Med c ountries

Source: SRM elaboration on Eurostat data

37.2

67.5

75.4

30.1

48.5

53.8

14.8

36.3

41.2

13.5

25.328.231.5

59.7

64.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

€ bn

ITALY FRANCE SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY

Expected values

European countries: geographical distributionof trade flows within the Med Area

6

History and geography count…

Main European countries: Total trade with the Med Ar ea and the 3 sub-areasYear 2012 – €bn and sub-areas’ share (%)


Southern

Med (%)

Eastern

Med (%)

Adriatic

Med (%)

Med Area

(€ bn)

Italy 60.0 30.4 9.6 67.5

Germany 31.1 61.4 7.5 59.7

France 66.6 31.9 1.5 48.5

Spain 71.0 27.5 1.5 36.3

United Kingdom 35.5 63.1 1.4 25.3

Even excluding energy products, trade with Non EU M ed countriesgrew in the 2001-2012 period: Italy rank 3rd among E U countries

7

Main European countries: Total trade, excluding ener gy products, with Non EU Med countries

�for Italy it amounted to €36.1 bn in 2012 (-2.9% compared to 2011), in line withthe foreign trade of France (€37.6 bn; +48.4% vs. 2001), as opposed to moresignificant growth for German trade (€51.0 bn; +89.2% vs 2001).


23.3

36.139.9

25.4

37.6

41.5

8.7

22.726.2

12.420.0 22.3

27.0

51.056.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

€ bn

ITALY FRANCE SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY

Expected values

Italy

Almost 24% of Italian Exports to the Med Area is m ade up of energy products, compared to 0.6% of German Exports

8

Italy and Germany: Exports to the Med Area and the 3 sub-areas Energy and Non-Energy products - €bn

�Italy exports refined petroleum products especially to Turkey (€2.2 billion) andLibya (€1.3 billion)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Italy Germany Italy Germany Italy Germany ITALY GERMANY

Southern Med Eastern Med Adriatic Med MED AREA

NON ENERGY ENERGY


AGENDA


� Final remarks



SRM’s «Business Project»: a survey on Italian Business in the Med Area countries

�A multi-year project that aims to estimate the “value” of Italian business presence

in the Mediterranean countries

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT:

�From micro economics to macro economics.

�Work carried out on the field.

�Western countries’ performances used as a benchmark.

ITALIAN BUSINESS IN

TURKEY MOROCCOand

12

9.28.5

3.04.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2011 2012E 2013E

Turkish EconomyReal GDP growth rate

Business structureEnterprises (%) by size

Trade, €bn

Source: SRM on IMF – World Outlook Oct.2012

Source: SRM on Eurostat and Turkstat

Source: SRM on UnctadSTAT

97.9

95.6

88.9

97.6

1.8

3.7

8.9

2.1

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102

Turkey

EU (27)

Germany

Italy

Small and Micro Medium Large

46.2

184.1

35.0

118.7

04080

120160200240

2001 2012

TurkeyImport Export

-65.4 €bn

264378

543

909

273389

638

1,095

0200400600800

1,0001,200

2001 2012 2001 2012

Italy Germany

Import Export

+11.2 €bn

+186.5 €bn

Italian companies in Turkey generate €17,3 bn in reven ue; +4.2% compared with 2011 ( SRM estimate )

Source: SRM on Ministry of Economy of the Rep. of Turkey and BV-DEP(Orbis) data

Italian and German Business in Turkey

� Employees are about 130,250.

� There are more German companies (5,158) in Turkey than Italian ones (1,000).but the estimated turnover is lower (€15,7 bn ; +4.8% on Oct. 2012).

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Num

ber

of p

erso

ns e

mpl

oyed

Number of enterprises

Presence of a smaller number of companies but larger in size

Presence of a greater number of companies but smaller in size

Italy:- Companies: 1,000- Employees: 130,250- Turnover: €17.3 bn

Germany:- Companies: 5,158- Emloyees: 174,011 - Turnover: €15.7 bn

Business in Turkey: Italian and German companies’ performances

14

Source: SRM elaboration on BV-DEP (ORBIS) data

�The first three sectors as for Italian companies in Turkey (by Turnover) are:Motor vehicles (49.6%), Machinery (18.6%) and Rubber and Plastic (8.3%).

�As for German companies, Turnover is more proportionally distributed amongthe sectors; the first 3 sectors in terms of turnover are: Machinery andequipment (29.7%), Chemicals , (11.6%), Construction (7.4%).

�Growth and Profitability : Italian companies’ Turnover has grown more thanGerman companies’ (respectively +33.5% and +21.7% between 2009 and 2010);but German companies are more profitable (25% was the RoE in 2010, while theItalian one was 20.8%). However, for both Italian and German companies,economic and financial performances are positive.

15

Morocco EconomyReal GDP growth rate

Business structure

Enterprises (%) by size

Trade, €bn

Source: SRM on IMF – World Outlook Oct.2012

Source: SRM on Eurostat and Haut Commissariat au plan au Maroc data

Source: SRM on UnctadSTAT

12.3

31.6

8.015.4

01020304050

2001 2011

Morocco

Import Export

€-16.2 bn

3.6

5

2.4

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012E 2013E

75.5

95.6

96.2

97.6

17.0

3.7

3.0

2.1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Morocco

EU (27)

France

Italy

Small and Micro Medium Large

264378 328

524

273389

323443

0100200300400500600700800

2001 2012 2001 2012

Italy FranceImport Export

+11.2 €bn-81.4 €bn

Italian companies in Morocco generate €956.9m in revenue;

Source: SRM elaboration on Association des Entreprises Italiennes au Maroc, Chambre Italienne de

Commerce au Maroc, Ambassade de France au Maroc and Cribis D&B data

Italian and French Business in Morocco

� Employees are about 7,000.

� There are more French companies (1,000) in Morocco than Italian companies(140). The estimated turnover of French companies (€24.0 bn ) is higher than theturnover generated by the Italian companies operating in Morocco (€957 m)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Num

ber

of p

erso

ns e

mpl

oyed

Number of companies

Italy:- Companies: 140- Employees: 7,000

- Turnover: €956.9 m

France:- Companies: 1,000- Employees: 115,000- Turnover: €23,981 m

Business in Morocco: Italian and French companiescomparison

17

Source: SRM on Chambre de Commerce Italienne au Maroc and Ambassade de France au Maroc data

�The first three sectors as for Italian companies in Morocco (by Turnover) are:Metals, machinery and motor vehicles (13.5%), Food and beverages (9.9%)and Textile and apparel (9.9%).

�As for French companies, the consulting servicies have the lion’s share(23.3%), followed by Metals, machinery and motor vehicles (14%) andElectronics and ICT (12.4%).

Italian and French companies in Morocco

Manufacturing: 45.4%

Manufacturing: 49.0%

Services:46.1%

Services:43.3%

Italian companies

French companies

Metals, Machinery and Motor vehicles 13.5% 14.0%Food and Beverage 9.9% 6.5%Textile and apperal 9.9% 6.5%Electronics and ICT 7.1% 12.4%Chemicals and Pharmaceutics 3.5% 8.5%Paper and print 1.4% 1.1%Mine and Building 8.5% 7.7%Wholesale and retail trade 9.2% 2.0%Culture and Turism 8.5% 1.5%Consulting services 6.4% 23.3%Transport and logistic 4.3% 5.3%Finance 2.8% 5.5%Utilities 0.7% 2.7%Other sectors 14.2% 3.0%TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPANIES 200 1,000

Italian companies French companies

� Italian business in MED countries

AGENDA


� Final remarks



Source: SRM elaboration on Istat data (2012)

Maritime trade accounts for 70.2% of total Italiantrade with the Non EU Med Countries in 2012

The increase of Italian maritime trade with the Non EU Me d Countries

Traffic trend in Mediterranean hubs

20

Market shares in Mediterranean hubs2005-2011 comparison

0%20%

10%

20%4%

8%

16%

8%

4%9%

Tanger Med9%

Gioia Tauro10%

Port Said17%

Algeciras16%

Taranto3%

Damietta3%

Valencia20%

Malta11%

Cagliari3%

Pireaeus8%

20052011

Source: SRM on Assoporti and Port Authorities data, 2012

� Italian business in MED countries

AGENDA


� Final remarks



In conclusion of the presentation

I would like to express

a hope for our Mezzogiorno…

3.8

10.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

East Europe *

Mezzogiorno Germany

The weight of Eastern Europe on foreign trade of Southern Italy and Germany

The weight of the Med Area on foreign trade of Southern Italy and Germany

12.4

2.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Med Area

Mezzogiorno Germany

Thanks for your attention

trade flows, economic development and maritime transport ...trade relations (import + export)...

Documents