Trade Trade Liberalisation and Liberalisation and the Labour Market the Labour Market

in Moroccoin MoroccoNovella BottiniNovella Bottini

(University of Pavia, and LIUC)(University of Pavia, and LIUC)Michael GasiorekMichael Gasiorek

(University of Sussex, and (University of Sussex, and GREQAM)GREQAM)

Trade and Labour Mkt

Trade and Wages

(Trade Approach)

Trade and Level of Employment(Development

Approach)

Churning

Morocco: Manufacturing SectorMorocco: Manufacturing Sector

0.5

11.

52

Den

sity

-2 -1 0 1 2g_firm2

We examine how trade liberalisation with EU We examine how trade liberalisation with EU and MENA countries impacts on and MENA countries impacts on

Moroccan workers Moroccan workers by changing the composition of by changing the composition of

employment.employment.

Methodology (1)Methodology (1)

EntryEntry POS POS Job Creation Job Creation

HiringHiring

ExitExit NEG NEG Job Destruction Job Destruction

FiringFiring

Methodology (2)Methodology (2)

SUM SUM Turnover = POS + |NEG| Turnover = POS + |NEG| NET = POS – NEGNET = POS – NEG

EXCESS EXCESS Churning Churning

EXC = Between + WithinEXC = Between + Within

TurnoverTurnover

Turnover: Permanent VS Temporary Workers

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.350.4

0.45

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

NEG_Perm

POS_Perm

NEG_Temp

POS_Temp

Entry VS HiringEntry VS Hiring

POS:Entry VS Continuing

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

Entry

Continuing

Exit VS FiringExit VS Firing

NEG:Exit VS Continuing

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

Exit

Continuing

Turnover By Export Status (1)Turnover By Export Status (1)Perm Workers Turnover by ExportStatus

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

SUM_nonExp

SUM_exp

SUM_irreg

Net Employment by Export Status

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002 NET_nonExp

NET_exp

NET_irreg

Turnover By Export Status (2)Turnover By Export Status (2)Temporary Workers Turnover by Export Status

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

SUM_NonExp

SUM_Exp

SUM_Irreg

Temp Work Net by Export Status

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

NET_NonExp

NET_Exp

NET_Irreg

Turnover By Size (1)Turnover By Size (1)Permanent Workers Turnover by Size

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.350.4

0.450.5

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

SUM_Small

SUM_Medium

SUM_Large

Permanent Workers NET by Size

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002 NET_Small

NET_Medium

NET_Large

Turnover By Size (2)Turnover By Size (2)

Temporary Workers: Turnover By Size

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

SUM_Small

SUM_Medium

SUM_Large

Temporary Workers: NET By Size

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

NET_Small

NET_Medium

NET_Large

Main Results: ReviewMain Results: Review

Turnover: Permanent Workers < Temporary Turnover: Permanent Workers < Temporary Workers;Workers;

Turnover Morocco > Turnover USA and UE;Turnover Morocco > Turnover USA and UE; Change in the trend after 1997;Change in the trend after 1997; Exporters Exporters ~ NonExporters in magnitude BUT not ~ NonExporters in magnitude BUT not

in time trend and composition;in time trend and composition; Turnover: Small > Medium > Large;Turnover: Small > Medium > Large; Turnover in the main sectors is higher than the Turnover in the main sectors is higher than the

average value for the whole economy.average value for the whole economy.

Churning among SectorsChurning among SectorsChurning among Sectors: Permanent Workers

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Excess

Between

Within

Churning among Sectors: Temporary Workers

0.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.0014.0016.0018.00

Excess

Between

Within

Churning among ExportStatus Churning among ExportStatus GroupsGroups

Churning By Expost Status: Permanent Workers

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

Excess

Between

Within

Churning By Export Status: Temporary Workers

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Excess

Between

Within

Churning among Size GroupsChurning among Size Groups

Churning By Size: Permanent Workers

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

Excess

Between

Within

Churning By Size: Temporary Workers

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Excess

Between

Within

Conclusion and Further StepsConclusion and Further Steps The analysis suggests that Turnover is higher among:

Temporary Workers,Temporary Workers,Small Firms,Small Firms,(NO difference among Exporters and NonExporters).(NO difference among Exporters and NonExporters).

Trade Liberalisation increase JR mainly among Temporary Workers.Trade Liberalisation increase JR mainly among Temporary Workers.

Simultaneous JC and JD Simultaneous JC and JD within industrieswithin industries, size and Export Status , size and Export Status Groups account for the vast majority of total turnover (70% on Groups account for the vast majority of total turnover (70% on average)average)

Firm heterogeneity is the key issue to understand job is the key issue to understand job reallocation in the Moroccan economy.reallocation in the Moroccan economy.

Grazie!Grazie!