trade sustainability impact assessment of the fta to be...
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Trade Sustainability Impact
Assessment of the FTA to be
negotiated between the EU and
ASEAN
TRADE07/C1/C01 – Lot 2
Inception Report
Client: European Commission, DG-Trade
Submitted by:
In cooperation with:
Centre for the Advancement of Trade Integration and Facilitation (CATIF), Philippines
Centre of European Studies (CES), Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
International Trade Institute of Singapore (ITIS), Singapore
Mekong Economics (MKE), Vietnam
PT Inacon Luhur Pertiwi, Indonesia
Rotterdam, 06 May 2008
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 3
ECORYS Nederland BV
P.O. Box 4175
3006 AD Rotterdam
Watermanweg 44
3067 GG Rotterdam
The Netherlands
T +31 (0)10 453 88 00
F +31 (0)10 453 07 68
W www.ecorys.com
Registration no. 24316726
ECORYS Macro & Sector Policies
T +31 (0)31 (0)10 453 87 53
F +31 (0)10 452 36 60
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 4
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 5
Table of Contents
1 Introduction 7
2 Methodology 9
2.1 General methodology 9
2.1.1 Economic variables 10
2.1.2 Social variables 10
2.1.3 Environmental variables 11
2.2 Modelling and Data 11
2.2.1 Model Specifications 11
2.2.2 Model Output 12
2.2.3 Model Assumptions and Limitations 14
2.2.4 Model Data 15
2.2.5 Modelling Approach 16
2.3 Screening & Scoping 19
2.4 Consultation & Dissemination 20
2.4.1 Stakeholder Analysis 21
2.4.2 Website consultation 24
2.4.3 Trade SIA Workshop in Bangkok 25
3 Organisation & Planning 27
3.1 Recent Developments in the FTA negotiations 27
3.2 Progress from this point forward 27
3.2.1 Inception phase 27
3.2.2 Phase 1: Global Analysis 28
3.2.3 Phase 2: Sector studies & Workshop 28
3.2.4 Phase 3: Policy recommendations 28
3.2.5 Working meetings with the Commission and Public Meetings 28
3.3 Revised timeline of key deliverables and project milestones 28
3.4 Reporting requirements 29
Annex A: Kick-off Note TSIA EU-ASEAN 31
Annex B: Minutes of the Kick-off Meeting 37
Annex C: Theoretical Foundations of the Model 43
Annex D: Model Technical Annex 45
Annex E: Key stakeholders ASEAN Member States – Preliminary lists 47
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 6
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 7
1 Introduction
On 20th December 2007, the contract for execution of this study, the ‘Trade
Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and
ASEAN’ (Reference: TRADE07/C1/C01 – Lot 2), was signed between DG Trade and the
consulting team, led by ECORYS.
ECORYS is aware of the important role of this study in providing input to the ongoing
EU-ASEAN FTA negotiations. Accordingly, the planning provided in this report has
been formulated to coincide as closely as possible with the pace of the FTA negotiations.
We recognise that in order for the results of this study to be relevant, the study must
conclude before the end of the FTA negotiations. Therefore, in addition to a solid
methodological approach, we will pay special attention to maintaining a continuous and
constructive dialogue with the European policy-makers involved in the negotiations so
that we remain abreast of all new developments and deliver results that are relevant and
realistic.
This inception report is based on the Terms of Reference, the proposal that was handed in
by ECORYS and subsequent discussions and insights, including the constructive kick-off
meeting that was held on 21st January 2008. The kick-off note is added as Annex A, and
the minutes of the kick-off meeting (general part and ASEAN part) can be found in
Annex B.
It is not our intention to repeat what has already been said in our proposal, as its contents
are still valid and available. With this inception report, we aim to address the main issues
that warrant further attention and focus, in order to bring this study to a successful end.
The issues addressed focus on:
1. Methodology
2. Organisation and planning
‘This report was commissioned and financed by the Commission of the European
Communities. The views expressed herein are those of the Consultant, and do not
represent any official view of the Commission’.
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2 Methodology
2.1 General methodology
The TSIA methodology consists of:
• Quantitative modelling of economic, social and environmental effects
• Qualitative description of economic, social and environmental effects
The quantitative model is described in more detail below in response to discussions with
the Commission. The qualitative assessment focuses on economic, social and
environmental effects of the FTA between the EU and ASEAN.
Sustainability impacts are assessed according to a number of indicators or variables
related to economic, social and environmental issues. These variables are listed in Table
2.1 below
Table 2.1 Sustainability impact indicators
Theme Core Indicator Specific Indicators
1. Economic a) Real Income
b) Fixed capital formation
c) Trade
a) GDP per capita, Net value added, consumer
effects, effect on prices, variety of goods and
services
b) Gross fixed capital formation, Private and
public capital formation, FDI
c) Balance of trade in goods and services,
Volume of trade in goods and services, Terms
of trade
2. Social a) Poverty
b) Health
c) Education
d) Labour issues (incl. Employment
and decent work)
e) Equality
a) People living under poverty line, GINI index,
regional effects
b) Life expectancy, Mortality rates (maternal,
child), Access to health services, sanitation,
nutritional levels
c) Primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment
rates, literacy rates
d) Unemployment, Productivity and quality of
work, Rights at work, Employment
opportunities, wage effects, self-employment
e) Gender equality in employment and
employment opportunities, gender equality in
education, social protection, social dialogue
3. Environmental a) Atmosphere a) CO2 emissions, air quality, quantity of
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Theme Core Indicator Specific Indicators
b) Land
c) Biodiversity
d) Environmental quality
e) Fresh and waste water
dangerous chemicals in atmosphere
(dangerous to ozone layer or to humans)
b) Land use in agriculture, forest, desertification,
urbanization, natural resource stocks
c) Number of species, protected areas,
ecosystem
d) Waste management, energy resources
e) Quantity of water use, Access to safe drinking
water, Water quality, Quantity of waste water,
Cleaning of waste water, Water supply
These indicators will be assessed either quantitatively (through CGE modelling) or
qualitatively (through causal chain analysis and consultations).
The impact assessment aims to be comprehensive, implying both positive and negative
impacts will be considered.
2.1.1 Economic variables
A number of variables are included in the CGE model (e.g. changes in growth, welfare,
output, prices, trade flows). They are listed in Table 2.2 (section 2.2.2). In addition there
is a number of variables that is not captured by the model, but assessed quantitatively.
This includes for example consumer effects, variety of goods & services, FDI flows and
terms of trade effects. For this we use a variety of methods, including causal chain
analysis, interviews with sector experts and literature review, and gravity analysis for the
FDI flows, data permitting.
2.1.2 Social variables
The social variables are partially covered in the CGE model and overlap to an extent with
some of the economic variables (e.g. employment, changes in wages for the high- and
low-skilled workers)1. For the social impact analysis, in addition to the CGE variables,
we use causal chain analysis, in-depth analysis through consultations with civil society
and interviews with sector experts to get more insights into specific social aspects related
to these variables (e.g. their links to poverty) and additional social impact variables such
as unemployment (vis-à-vis the model outcomes), poverty, child labour, self-
employment, life expectancy, education, gender equality, rights at work, decent work,
social protection, social dialogue and access to health services. We will pay specific
attention to the concepts of productivity and poverty and the links between trade and
poverty, based for instance on the work by Winters (2000).2 Several of these issues can
not be analysed quantitatively, but we aim for a structured approach:
1 With certain limitations to the modelling parts. For example, overall there is no net job creation or destruction, but at
sectoral level, the CGE model allows explicitly for employment effects. 2 Winters, L. A. (2000) “Trade, Trade Policy and Poverty: What are the Links?” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2382
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 11
• Review of available literature, reports and data;
• Definition of core aspects that influence the variable;
• Determination of the effects transmission mechanisms;
• Discussions with sector and other key experts for validation and insights.
2.1.3 Environmental variables
The environmental variables are partially covered in the CGE model, e.g. CO2 emissions.
In addition to the CGE variables, we use causal chain analysis, in-depth analysis through
consultations with civil society and interviews with sector experts to get more insights
into air quality, forestry effects, bio-diversity issues, land use in agriculture, ecosystem,
waste management, water quality and access to safe drinking water, desertification.
As regards fisheries, the model does not make a distinction between captured and
cultivated fish. Therefore, in the second phase, we will compare model outcomes with
available data and information in the specific ASEAN countries, so as to determine the
shares of these two modes of fisheries in total output and subsequently link these to
sustainable development indicators.
Several other issues are also impossible to analyse quantitatively, but we aim for a
structured approach:
• Review of available literature, reports and data;
• Definition of core aspects that influence the variable;
• Determination of the effects transmission mechanisms;
• Discussions with sector and other key experts for validation and insights.
2.2 Modelling and Data
2.2.1 Model Specifications
The CGE model to be used for this project, as well as the specific advantages and
improvements it offers over earlier studies on this topic, have been previously described
in our technical proposal. The model is based on Francois, Van Meijl, and Van Tongeren
(FMT 2005)3 and incorporates a number of key issues relevant to the EU-ASEAN FTA,
including:
• Taxes;
• Trade policy instruments;
• International trade costs; and
• Frictional trading costs.
Further theoretical and technical details on the model can be found in Annexes C and D
and on the following website: http://www.i4ide.org/francois/data.htm.
3 Francois. J.F., H. van Meijl and F. van Tongeren (2005), “Trade Liberalization in the Doha Development Round,” Economic
Policy April: 349-391.
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2.2.2 Model Output
We use the model to quantify as many variables as possible describing economic, social
and environmental changes in the EU and ASEAN economies. We aim to approach the
ideal situation as presented in the DG Trade Handbook for TSIAs as much as is feasible.
Table 2.2 specifies the specific variables to be indicated by the CGE model. As
mentioned above, the table does not include the full list of variables that we will analyse
during the study, but summarises CGE quantifiable variables. If needed – and possible –
we will provide additional quantifiable analysis through gravity work and/or GSIM
partial equilibrium simulations.
With respect to economic variables, the model provides output on the expected changes
in a number of economic indicators. At the sector level the model provides the percentage
change in bilateral export, output, value added and employment. At the aggregate level,
the model includes the percentage change in total imports and exports, in GDP and in
terms of trade. The model also shows the predicted change in national income in billions
of dollars.
Table 2.2 Variables that are generated by the model
Theme Indicator Measurement
1.Sector results a) Bilateral exports
b) Output
c) Value added
d) Employment (skilled and unskilled)
a) Percent change
b) Percent change
c) Percent change
d) Percent change
2. Aggregate results a) Wages (skilled and unskilled)
b) GDP
c) Total exports
d) Total imports
e) National income
f) Terms of trade
a) Percent change
b) Percent change
c) Percent change
d) Percent change
e) Billions of dollars
f) Percent change
3. Environment
variables
a) Emissions
b) Agricultural
c) Fisheries
a) Percentage change in CO2 emissions
b) Percentage change in output
Changes in land use
c) Percentage change in fish catch
(production)
4. Social variables a) Unskilled wage changes
b) Labour displacement
c) Measure of inequality
a) Percent change in household income
b) Percentage of workers required to move
jobs
c) Change in relative share of unskilled
workers in total income.
With respect to social variables, the model includes a number of social indicators, such as
employment effects for high and low-skilled labour, wage effects on these groups and
employment effects per sector. While most economic studies consider employment to be
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an economic variable, the TSIA Handbook of DG Trade places employment within the
labour theme of the social pillar.4 Accordingly, throughout the study we will treat
employment as a social variable. Model outputs on social issues will be supplemented at a
later stage with qualitative analyses on topics such as unemployment, gender equality,
poverty, 5 child labour, labour mobility, etc. (see Table 2.1). After the modelling phase,
social experts will further estimate the social effects qualitatively, based on the model
outcomes, among others through causal chain analysis. We intend to focus specifically on
the poverty and poverty related variables, as an important issue in the context of ASEAN
– particularly for some of the lesser develop member states. For the qualitative analysis of
these variables we will draw on earlier work done by our local partners in ASEAN, and
specific sector/sustainable development experts in the region who have conducted similar
studies (see also section 2.4 below).
In terms of environmental variables, the model provides output on the expected changes
in emissions levels (e.g. of CO2 – at least as CO2 equivalents – depending on what is
available in the GTAP satellite accounts) in the EU and ASEAN as a result of the FTA.
Also important for potential environmental impacts is the fact the model includes
livestock, both living (cattle, sheep, goats & horses) and in the form of processed food
(cattle, sheep, goats & horses). A separate category is ‘other meat’ which includes, for
example, poultry.
The CGE model categories are not able to distinguish between captured and cultivated
fish. At the level of export data, we are also limited by the fact that data are gathered by
type of fish (e.g. trout or salmon) but without discriminating between captured and
cultivated fish. Should this sector be selected for in-depth assessment in phase 2, this is an
issue that will be analysed qualitatively by our sector experts.
In the same manner as the social variables above, we will supplement environmental
quantitative results at a later stage with qualitative analyses from our environmental
experts on the potential effects of the trade agreement on the environment (e.g. air
quality, water pollution and biodiversity). When considering biodiversity, we will aim to
address the impact of the FTA on forests, including deforestation and illegal logging
issues, as well as the spread of invasive alien species (from and to the EU). However, for
the latter we depend on findings – through our array of methodologies – significant
expected impacts and sufficient data sources.
Our environmental impact assessment will take into account the specific local context
(e.g. differing environmental legislation and enforcement of this legislation in different
countries) and ongoing initiatives and agreements, such as the FLEG-T programme and
Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPA).6 In essence these are part of the base scenario
4 See page 54 of the TSIA Handbook.
5 Winters (2000) identifies six key trade poverty links as well as a number of important issues to take into consideration when
assessing these links. His work therefore provides a useful basis for our own analysis with regard to social impact issues.
(CEPR Discussion Paper 2382) 6 The EC is currently negotiating FLEGT VPA with Malaysia and Indonesia, and possibly in the future with more ASEAN
countries. The FLEG-T programme is a global EU Action Plan to combat illegal logging and associated trade. It comprises
a set of measures in producing countries and in Europe to combat illegal timber trade (e.g. promotion of green procurement
policies in Europe). Negotiating of VPA is one of the key measures of the FLEGT Action Plan.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 14
analysis and taking them into account is necessary to capture the specific impacts that an
FTA may have in the different ASEAN member states related to their different levels of
economic and institutional development.
In addition we will look at the implications of changes in land use (e.g. use of fertilisers,
pesticides, water pollution) from a qualitative angle, comparing available data and
information on levels of fertiliser use and pollution for specific land uses and the model
outcomes with regards to changes in specific land uses.
Subsequent policy recommendations will be formulated using both the quantitative
outputs of the model and the qualitative in-depth assessments of our experts. We have
duly noted the Commission’s concern that the social and environmental impact analyses
in previous TSIAs have been too heavily focused on counterpart countries with not
enough attention for the impacts within the EU. Accordingly, for the current study, we
have assembled teams of social and environmental experts from both the EU and ASEAN
in order to give equal attention to the concerns on both sides of the Agreement.
2.2.3 Model Assumptions and Limitations
The following issues constitute model assumptions and limitations that are important to
present clearly and be aware of when interpreting results:
• The model assumes imperfect competition for most sectors and constant returns to
scale for some sectors, that can be decided based on estimated scale economies in
individual sectors.
• The model needs to apply various closures. This means that with regards to labour we
assume that jobs on net are neither created nor destroyed and the countries’ trade
balances are in equilibrium.
• Trade in services is included in the model for cross-border modes, but the model does
not include specifications to analyse FDI, nor are data sources available to do so.
Therefore FDI and related investment flows are not included in the model. However,
there has been recent gravity work on services FDI at the OECD. We will draw on
this work, as well as on available FDI data, to analyse this issue outside the model
proper. For mode 3 we can apply some of the latest theoretical insights on the
relationship between trade and FDI.
• Within the model it is not possible to take the informal sector into account. We will
have to provide a qualitative analysis of this issue. There exists some literature
whereby looking at the size of the formal sector can give insights in the informal
sector.
• If a sector is too small, the CGE analysis may yield magnified and unrealistic results
– in that case we will explain the issue and caution against interpreting the results too
literally.
• For the labour market module in the CGE model we assume market clearing, which is
in line with the request for extrapolation of the GTAP dataset to 2014 – by which
time labour markets should have cleared. We assume that market imperfections exist.
For example, we model product differentiation in the manufacturing and services
sectors, while we assume homogeneity of goods in the agricultural sector. If needed,
we can work with a long-run elastic labour supply curve.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 15
• Non-tariff barriers can be modelled through Ad Valorem Equivalents (AVEs) and
these can be reduced to model Non-Tariff Barrier (NTB) reductions. However, we
will model the net effect of NTBs by sector. Specific modelling of an individual NTB
is not contemplated.
More detailed technical specifications on the model can be found in Annex D.
2.2.4 Model Data
The data we will start from for this analysis – the GTAP version 7 dataset
(www.gtap.org) issued in the pre-release version in 2007 (data benchmarked to 2004) – is
the most current general equilibrium dataset available. The database is the best and most
up-to-date source of internally consistent data on production, consumption and
international trade by country and sector. For more information, see Dimaran and
McDougall (2006)7. The GTAP data on protection incorporates the Macmaps data set,
which includes a set of Ad Valorem Equivalents (AVEs) of border protection across the
world. The source information concerns various instruments, such as specific tariffs,
mixed tariffs and quotas, which cannot be directly compared or summed. In order to be of
use in a CGE model, these have been converted into an AVE per sector, per country and
per trading partner. Social accounting data are also based on the most recent Version 7.0
of the GTAP dataset.
Reliability of data for ASEAN
As with any study, this TSIA must be conducted within the constraints of data
availability. As such, we will work to make the best most relevant interpretation possible
of available data. We will check existing data, but do not have many alternative sources at
our disposal other than the standard ones. We will benchmark the GTAP 2004 data
against EUROSTAT data. We can also provide some sensitivity analysis on certain
parameters, if required.
Up-to-date data
The dataset will be extrapolated from its 2004 benchmark to 2014. This involves using
relatively standard macro projection techniques. This would also allow us to incorporate
any underlying FTAs or similar developments that the Commission may deem important
as part of the baseline. Thus, we will develop a baseline and consider any major
deviations (one or two) from this baseline. Subsequently we can see if these deviations
make a big difference for the results. For instance, what happens if ASEAN+6 does or
does not happen.
Trade barriers in services
We will work with the latest dataset available, used in the Francois, Hoekman & Woertz
(2007) paper, validated through external sources (EUROSTAT, OECD, etc.) to
benchmark services trade by sector. This is the largest and latest dataset available and
goes beyond the GTAP services database (based on the CPB dataset). Based on a
variation of the method used in recent studies (for example Francois, van Tongeren, and
7 Dimaran, B, and McDougall, R., ed. (2007). The GTAP database -- version 7, Global Trade Analysis Center: Purdue
University.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 16
Van Meijl, 2005) we can use these data to estimate relative degrees of restriction to trade
in services. We will supplement this, to the extent possible, with other available estimates
from the literature (a review is now underway). These will be used to model trade costs
for cross-border trade (modes 1 and 2). However, latest theoretical work investigates the
complementarity or substitutability between trade and FDI and can therefore also shed
light on mode 3 services by approximation. Further information will come from
discussions (outside the model estimates) of other modes of supply.
2.2.5 Modelling Approach
Baseline Scenario
The development of a baseline scenario for the model requires some starting assumptions
with regard to the “current situation.” In light of the discussion during the kick-off
meeting, we will proceed as follows:
• We will conduct macro extrapolations of the base year of 2004 to 2014 to allow for
the long run effects to be included;
• We will include various trade agreements into the baseline scenario, like the EU
enlargement since 2004, the phasing out of the ATC, a notional WTO agreement
under the DDA, intra-ASEAN integration8, ASEAN-Japan FTA, ASEAN-Korea
FTA, ASEAN-China FTA, ASEAN-New Zealand & Australia FTA, EU-Korea FTA
and EU-India FTA.
Here it is important to note that we will not be focusing on these other FTAs in the model
as such, but we build them into the baseline scenario. In other words the effects or
relative efficiency of bilateral trade agreements vis-à-vis multilateral agreements will not
be included in the analysis.
The macro projections of the 2004 baseline to 2014 increase the relevance of the model
analysis because it takes us past the implementation of the potential FTAs and focuses on
the medium term horizon. Furthermore, such projections better reflect the implications of
China’s, India’s and ASEAN’s growth rate in the medium term.
Scenario analysis
In addition to the baseline scenario, we aim to analyse two liberalisation scenarios that
include reductions in tariffs, quotas, export subsidies and NTBs.
• An ambitious scenario, with deep integration between the EU and ASEAN
economies, showing the potential benefits of a far-reaching agreement;
o 97% for goods, both for ASEAN and the EU (tariff lines and trade, including
industrial, agriculture, fish and PAPs)
o 75% liberalisation of services
o 2% reduction of NTBs (custom and trade facilitation)
8 ASEAN has used rules of origin to preclude any real use of internal duty free arrangements. Our modeling team is aware of
these issues and will take them into account.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 17
o Additional 1%-point reduction of NTBs in sectors where ASEAN and EU
have relatively high levels (based on WTO data) –as an Ambitious Plus
addition. These results will be presented separately.
• A limited scenario, with much less ambitious integration, especially with respect to
agriculture and regulatory approximation:
o 90% liberalisation on goods, both for ASEAN and the EU (tariff lines and
trade, including industrial, agriculture, fish and PAPs)
o 25% liberalisation of services
o 1% reduction of NTBs (customs and trade facilitation)
For both scenarios, the TSIA will provide the outcomes for the four components tariff
liberalisation, agricultural/processed food liberalisation, services liberalisation and
customs agreement/trade facilitation jointly.
We further aim to look specifically at successful regulatory approximation,
implementation and enforcement by modelling an additional 1%-point reduction in NTBs
(beyond the ambitious FTA scenario) in specific sectors where SPS, TBT, procurement
barriers, IPR, rules of origin or other barriers mentioned in the ToR Section 4.2.1) are
high – based on WTO Trade Policy Review information.
In order to make the scenario analysis as realistic and supportive as possible for the
ongoing trade negotiations, the liberalisation assumptions need to be as close to the real-
life situation as possible. For the latter to be possible, we propose two parallel
approaches:
• Studying the information available from EU-ASEAN Partnership and Cooperation
Agreements, previous studies, the EU-ASEAN Vision Group report and other
documents provided by the Commission;
• Close co-operation and consultation with the relevant Commission officials –
especially the chief negotiators – to gather comments on the scenarios suggested by
ECORYS.
Coordination with the Commission on the scenarios – baseline and liberalisation – is of
crucial importance and requires that the study team and the Commission exchange
relevant information and any other related reports that have been commissioned.9
Level of analysis
After discussions with the Commission it was agreed that the TSIA will focus on
aggregated effects at EU level. For ASEAN, model outcomes will be presented both at
aggregate and individual country level, with the exception of Laos, Brunei and Myanmar,
which do not feature separately in the GTAP database.
Considering on the one hand the large intra-ASEAN differences in levels of development
and the need to take these into account, and on the other hand the fact that although the
EC negotiating authorisation does not concern Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, these
countries should nevertheless be covered under the TSIA particularly in respect of
9 Apart from what has already been provided in the proposal and inception phases of course.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 18
agriculture, in the qualitative analysis we will also present some specific findings (i.e.
where impact is substantial for certain countries or groups of countries) at the level of the
individual ASEAN countries, insofar possible. For instance, as requested by the
Commission, specific attention will be paid to Indonesia and Vietnam, while some
analysis will also be conducted for Cambodia and the rest of Southeast Asia (GTAP
aggregation including Brunei, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor). The case studies will
provide an opportunity to address specific issues at the level of ASEAN Member States in
more detail. These case studies will therefore be selected in close consultation with all
main stakeholders.
Third-country effects
In addition to showing the potential impacts of the FTA in ASEAN and the EU, the
model will also highlight potential third country effects. As agreed with the Commission,
these analyses will be focused on the following ‘third’ countries/regions:
• India;
• Pakistan;
• Bangladesh.
To this list we propose to add:
• Rest of South Asia (GTAP aggregation which includes Nepal, Afghanistan, Bhutan,
and Maldives);
• Rest of LDCs as a group;
• Rest of World.
FDI
Due to limitations in the amount of data available on FDI, FDI and investment are not
included in the CGE model. ECORYS has examined the possibility of including the
CEPII FDI data into the model, as was suggested during the kick-off meeting. However,
much of the CEPII bilateral FDI data are actually synthetic, having been produced using a
reverse gravity model to generate missing data. These data thus rule out zero FDI stocks
and flows, even though this could be a realistic and important situation. Given our lack of
access to real, as opposed to synthetic, FDI data, we must accept FDI and investment as a
limitation to the model. We can, however, provide a more descriptive analysis on FDI
trends and policy in the chosen sectors and – data allowing – some gravity modelling on
projected FDI and investment flows. We are also currently reviewing recent gravity
estimates for FDI in services (that mainly originate from the EU).
Services liberalisation
As mentioned before, the CGE model allows us to address services liberalisation of cross-
border modes, but not modes three and four. We therefore can look at impacts on services
trade for specific services sub-sectors that produce in ASEAN and the EU. Modes 3 and
4, related to commercial presence in services and mobility of persons, are outside CGE
modelling capabilities given data limits and therefore have to be addressed through
qualitative analysis, causal chain analysis (CCA) of economic and social impacts and – if
possible – via gravity analysis to shed light on FDI and investment flows. We can model
barriers to services partially through converting them into AVEs.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 19
Related to this, we had a look at the Trade Restrictiveness Index (TRI) work by the World
Bank10
and the dataset on trade barriers in services by M. Olarreaga. Regrettably, the TRI
has no relevance for this study as it is a summary measure of the overall welfare impact
of trade policy relative to all partners.
Non-tariff barriers
We can address NTBs in the model in one of two ways. Some NTBs, like many of those
in agriculture, generate rents. As a result, they operate much like import and export taxes.
Based on price-wedge estimates, our protection data does include summary measures of
agricultural protection (as in previous years, GTAP data in agriculture include tariff
equivalents for current regimes, like TRQs, in the benchmark data). In other cases, such
as services, trade costs can be modelled as iceberg-type trade costs11
. In the first case, we
model NTBs as import and export tax equivalents, while in the second we model them as
change in the cost of trade (but without the rents). The Commission has expressed its
preference for the second option, which we will therefore take into account.
2.3 Screening & Scoping
During Phase 1, we use basic indicators to identify the current situation in the ASEAN
and EU economies, their inter-linkages in goods, services and capital flows and the size
of various sectors. We also look broadly at the issues that are likely to be included in the
FTA negotiations, as indicated in the ToR and further elaborated during our meetings
with the Commission thus far.
It is these issues, the strength of the linkages at sectoral levels between the EU and
ASEAN, comments from civil society and the degree of estimated impacts that matter a
great deal for the selection of the sectors and horizontal issues for the detailed assessment
in Phase 2. The selection of sectors and horizontal issues to be analysed in Phase 2 will be
contingent upon these screening criteria.
Following Phase 1, we will select five sectors and five horizontal issues to be analysed
in greater detail. The ToR divides the economy into four sections:
- Agriculture and processed foods;
- Other primary;
- Manufacturing; and
- Services.
From these four broad sections we will choose the five sectors, depending on the
screening criteria (e.g. forestry as a sector of other primary or clothing as a sector within
manufacturing).
10
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,contentMDK:21085342~pagePK:
64214825~piPK:64214943~theSitePK:469382,00.html 11
Iceberg type transport costs are costs that are modelled as goods or services ‘melting away’ when being exported. For
example, 100 T-shirts may be exported by ASEAN, only 95 T-shirts arrive in the Port of Rotterdam (EU). The 5 T-shirts that
have ‘melted away’ show the height of transport costs.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 20
The selection of the five sectors and five horizontal issues takes place, making use of the
following four criteria:
a. The (macroeconomic) importance of a sector/horizontal issue for EU ASEAN
relations (e.g. through share of GDP, employment);
b. The size of the expected economic impact of the FTA between the EU and
ASEAN;
c. The expected social and/or environmental impact of the sector for the EU and
ASEAN; and
d. The comments and feedback from the consultations with key stakeholders and
civil society.
On the basis of the screening exercise we will propose to the Commission the five sectors
and five horizontal issues to be analysed in more detail. For those sectors and horizontal
issues not selected for more detailed analysis in Phase 2, we will provide in the Global
Analysis Report a clear indication of why they have not been chosen.
Within each of the five sectors selected for analysis in Phase 2, we will also conduct two
case studies. In choosing the case studies to be carried out, we will look to identify cases
that highlight not just the specific sector (or sub-sector in the cases of services and
agriculture) but also potentially a specific horizontal issue. For example, if clothing is
selected as a case study, we may try to link this to Rules of Origin issues. We will also
look to identify case studies than can highlight other issues relevant to the TSIA (e.g. 3rd
country effects, specific environmental and/or social issues, etc.). Both case studies for
ASEAN and for the EU will be identified and conducted.
2.4 Consultation & Dissemination
As indicated in the tender application, the quality, credibility and legitimacy of the Trade
Sustainability Impact Assessment is very important and depends to a large extent on two
key aspects:
• A solid, objective and scientific quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expected
impact of the FTA on sustainable development (including thorough sector and
horizontal issue analysis);
• A thorough process of consultation, including information exchange and feedback,
with key stakeholders to the FTA negotiations, with the results on the process
becoming available at ‘the right times’ to support the FTA negotiations.
The effectiveness and impact of this TSIA as well as the ability to avoid polarisation
regarding the FTA negotiations between the EU and ASEAN among stakeholders and the
public, depends on a continuous dialogue and regular discussions with, and openness to
critique and suggestions from the key stakeholders.
To that aim, we elaborate here:
1. A preliminary list of key stakeholders in both ASEAN and the EU, to be further
developed into a network of key stakeholders and experts;
2. Our ideas for development and implementation of the website consultation
strategy; and
3. Preliminary plans for the TSIA Workshop to be held in Bangkok.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 21
2.4.1 Stakeholder Analysis
ECORYS and its sub-contracting partners have already begun compiling a list of key
stakeholders in both ASEAN and the EU. During the inception phase the team leader has
made a trip to Southeast Asia, to mobilise its ASEAN partners and discuss the content
and approach to the study with the EC Delegation officials in Bangkok, Jakarta, Hanoi
and Manila. One of the main issues discussed was the consultation strategy. Other
Delegations within ASEAN have been or will be contacted directly by the team as well.
It was agreed that ECORYS and its partners would compile comprehensive lists of
relevant stakeholders for each country, which will be submitted to the Delegations for
cross-checking. Subsequently we will approach the approved organisations and invite
them to register on the website and actively participate in discussions on the website.
From this pool of stakeholders we will also make a selection, again in consultation with
the DG Trade and the Delegations, of organisations to invite to the workshop in Bangkok.
While the network will continue to grow as the consultation process progresses, the
following table provides a preliminary list of key stakeholders in ASEAN. In Annex E
such preliminary lists are provided for each country in ASEAN.
Table 2.3 Preliminary list of ASEAN key stakeholders
Government Bodies
ASEAN Secretariat Mr. Dhannanjaya V. Sunoto / Mr. Sundram
Pushpanathan
Business Chambers
ASEAN Chambers of Commerce and Industry (ASEAN-CCI) Mr. Santi Vilassakdanont
Civil Society12
/Academia
ASEAN Bankers Association (ABA) Mr. Tay Kah Chye / Mrs. Catherine Seow
ASEAN Business Forum (ABF) Ms. Ng Su Fun
ASEAN Confederation of Employers (ACE) / Employers
Confederation of the Philippines (ECOP)
Mr. Rene Y. Soriano
ASEAN Confederation of Women’s Organisation (ACWO) President: Datin Masni Al
ASEAN Constructors Federation (ACF) Ms. Lee Siew Mei / Mr. Haryo
ASEAN Federation of Mining Association (AFMA) To Be Determined
ASEAN Federation of Textile Industries (AFTEX)13
Mr. Chris Koh (TaFF, Singapore)
ASEAN Fisheries Federation (AFF) Mr. Wawan Kosawara
ASEAN Furniture Industries Council (AFIC) Mr. Jovelle Aure Torres / Mr. Nicolaas K. de
Lange (Chairperson)
ASEAN Intellectual Property Association (ASEAN IPA) Ms. Tan Kee Leng
ASEAN Oleochemical Manufacturers Group (AOMG) Ms. Law Zee Jean
ASEAN Ports Association (APA) Ms. Aida P. Dizon (Head, Permanent Secretariat)
12
For a list of official ASEAN affiliated CSOs, see www.aseansec.org/6070.pdf 13
AFTEX) consists of five national textile associations representing the five constituent member countries. These five
associations are Federasi Industri Tekstil Indonesia (FITI), Malaysian Textile Manufacturers Association (MTMA),
Confederations of Garments Exporters of The Philippines Inc. (CONGEP), Textile & Fashion Federation of Singapore
(TaFF) & National Federation of Thai Textile Industries (NFTTI).
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 22
ASEAN Vegetable Oils Club (AVOC) Mr. Derom Bangun
Asia-Europe Foundation Mr. Bertrand Fort, Dep. Ex. Dir.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) Senior Economist Ganeshan Wignaraja
Asian Farmers Association (AFA) Muhammad Nuruddin, Ex.Com.Member
Asian Forum for Human Rights and Development (FORUM-
ASIA)
Seong Hoon Lee
Asian Partnership for Development of Human Resources in
Rural Asia (AsiaDHRRA)
Marlene D. Ramirez, Secretary-General
Federation of ASEAN Economic Associations (FAEA) Dr. Arsenio Balisacan
Federation of ASEAN Shipowners Associations (FASA) Mr. Daniel Tan (Secretary-General)
Fiedrich Ebert Foundation Dr. Beate Bartoldus. Head, Dep. of Asia and the
Pacific.
FTA-watch [email protected]
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) Mrs Y L Lee
Solidarity for Asian People’s Advocacy (SAPA) www.asiasapa.org
Southeast Asia Regional Initiatives for Community
Empowerment (SEARICE)
Wilhelmine R. Pelegrina, Ex.Dir.
Southeast Asian Committee for Advocacy (SEACA) Consuelo Katrina A. Lopa, Regional Coordinator
Third World Network (TWN) www.twnside.org.sg
ASEAN Affairs Magazine Khun Roy
Portal for National NGO Platforms http://www.ong-ngo.org/spip.php?rubrique15
International Organisations
World Bank Indonesia Mr. William Wallace
World Bank Vietnam Mr. Martin Rama; Mrs. Maria Delfina Alcaide
Garrido
World Bank Thailand t.b.d.
ILO regional offices (e.g. Indonesia, Vietnam) t.b.d.
UNDP & UNEP regional offices t.b.d.
Asian Development Bank (Manila) Senior Economist Ganeshan Wignaraja
Table 2.4 Preliminary List of EU Key Stakeholders
European Commission Representatives
DG Trade and other DG representatives in the Steering
Committee14
• Steering Committee Members, chief
negotiators & relevant (deputy) heads of unit
EC Delegation to Thailand (Laos and Myanmar). • Mr. Jean-Jacques Bouflet, Mr. Pekka Penttila
and Mr. Udomdech Srimaserm
EC Delegation to Vietnam • Mr. Antonio Berenguer
EC Delegation to Singapore • Mr. Holger Standertskjold
EC Delegation to Philippines • Mr. Gabriel Munueral Vinals
EC Delegation to Malaysia • Mr. Rommel
EC Delegation to Indonesia (& Brunei) • Mr. Andreas Julin, Mrs. Cécile Leroy, Mr.
Thibaut Portevin
EC Delegation to Cambodia • Mr. Seth van Doorn
14
The other DG representatives will be determined in consultation with DG Trade.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 23
Business Representative Organisations
Association of European Chambers of Commerce and
Industry (EUROCHAMBRES)
• Mr. Dirk Vantyghem
The European Services Forum (ESF) • Mr. Pascal Kerneis – Managing Director
Confederation of European Business (BUSINESSEUROPE) • Mr. Adrian van den Hoven
COPA-COGECA • Mrs. Shelby Matthews
Eurocommerce • Mr. Ralph Kamphöner
Free Trade Association (FTA) • Mr. Olle Pettersson
Confédération des Industries Agro-Alimentaires de l'Union
européénne (CIAA)
• Mrs. Nathalie Lecocq / Mr. Arruga I Valeri
Comité du Commerce des Céréales, Aliments du Betail et
Oleagineaux, de l' U.E. (COCERAL)
• Mrs. Anna Boulova
European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) • Mr. Erik Bergelin
European Apparel & Textile Organisation (EURATEX) • Mr. Francesco Marchi
European Confederation of Iron and Steel Industries
(EUROFER)
• Mrs. Christian
European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries &
Associations (EFPIA)
• Mr Brendan Barnes
Association des Industries du Poisson de l'U.E. – Comité
des Organisations Nationales des Importateurs et
Exportateurs de Poisson de l'U.E. (AIPCE – CEP)15
• Guus Pastoor, President. Secretariat General
Eurothon (representing the tuna canning and fishing
industry in Europe).
• Juan M. Vieites, President
Trade Unions / Consumer Organisations
European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) /
International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC)
• Tom Jenkins
Bureau Européen des Unions de Consommateurs (BEUC) • Dominique Forest
Civil Society/Academia
Platform of European Social NGOs • Mr. Roshan DiPuppo
European Women’s Lobby • Mrs. Kristi Kolthoff
Friends of Earth Europe (FoEE) • Mr. Fouad Hamdan
European Environmental Bureau • Mr. John Hontelez
European Association for the Co-ordination of Consumer
Representation in Standardisation (ANEC)
• Mr. Stephen Russell
World Wild Fund for Nature (WWF)16
• Mr. Tony Long
Coopération Internationale pour le Développement et la
Solidarité (CIDSE)
• Mr. Guillaume Legaut
Eurogroup for Animal Welfare (EUROGROUP) • Mr Adolfo Sansolini
SOLIDAR • Mr. Ian Derry
Oxfam International • Mr. Louis Bélanger
EU Civil Society Contact Group17
• To Be Determined
15
E.U. Fish Processors Association – E.U. Federation of National Organisations of Importers and Exporters of Fish. 16
WWF is part of the so-called Green 10, which includes BirdLife International; Climate Action Network Europe (CAN
Europe); CEE Bankwatch Network; European Environmental Bureau (EEB); European Federation of Transport &
Environment (T&E); Heath and Environment Alliance; Friends of the Earth Europe (FoEE); Greenpeace Europe; and
International Friends of Nature (IFN). Through WWF these organisations will be included in our consultation process.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 24
Network Women in Development Europe (WIDE) • Ms Wendy Harcourt
APRODEV • Mr. Colombe de Mercey
MEDEF • Mr. Emmanuel Montanie
2.4.2 Website consultation
The website for the EU-ASEAN TSIA will be www.tsiaasean.ecorys.com. The project
website will be an essential part of the consultation process and will provide a meeting
place for the consultants and all stakeholders and facilitate dissemination of information.
It will be easily accessible via the ECORYS Trade SIA portal website,
www.tsia.ecorys.com. This portal site includes links to the previous Ukraine Trade SIA
conducted by ECORYS and those being carried out at the moment (India and ASEAN).
Special attention has been paid to the design of the webpage to make it as user-friendly as
possible. The objective has been to make it easy to find information, to create discussions
between the different stakeholders and to provide feedback to the consultant.
All approved reports, minutes of meetings and presentations will be downloadable from
the website. In addition, information about the project, the background and the
methodology used will be accessible. Project news, placed on the main page of the
website will advertise the coming events or publication of new reports. Additionally, a
clear timeline of the project will be placed on the website which will show the current
progress and the upcoming events. Other news relevant to the project, such as news on
the developments in EU-ASEAN relations, recent important political and/or economic
changes, etc. will also be placed on the main page.
A forum will provide a place for lively discussions between the different stakeholders and
ECORYS. The stakeholders can also use the feedback form to send their comments
directly to the ECORYS team. The ECORYS team will process and take into account all
comments and suggestions received, either during meetings (public meetings and
workshop in Bangkok), email, feedback forms or through the forum. Especially for the
selection of sectors and horizontal issues to be studied in more detail, the opinions of the
stakeholders will play an important role, but also for the in-depth sector studies and case
studies and subsequent policy recommendations the inputs from civil society are crucial.
Therefore in these phases face to face interviews will be held with relevant key
stakeholders in both the EU and ASEAN countries.
Finally, ECORYS will encourage and promote the website among its own and its
partners’ networks so as to achieve continuous feedback through this website throughout
the entire project for validation of results and improvement of the impact analyses.
17
The EU Civil Society Contact Group brings together eight large rights and value based NGO sectors - culture, environment,
education, development, human rights, public health, social and women. The ETUC, representing European union workers
is an observer to the group.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 25
2.4.3 Trade SIA Workshop in Bangkok
The TSIA Workshop in Bangkok is planned to take place in the third week of September,
2008. The aim of this workshop is to bring together key civil society and other
stakeholders in ASEAN to present preliminary results and gather their views, opinions
and comments on the Trade SIA. The emphasis of the workshop will be on gathering the
opinions of civil society stakeholders, which implies the workshop should have a
relatively low political profile in order to avoid ‘crowding out’ effects by politicians and
their agendas at the cost of (the views of) other stakeholders in the process.
Considering the limited number of civil society organisations that can attend and the even
lower number of organisations that can be provided with funding for travel and
accommodation, the selection of CSOs to invite will have to take place through a fair
process that ensures maximum coverage. We propose that such a selection takes into
account at least the following criteria:
• the organisations selected adequately represent the most important sectors and social /
environmental impact issues for ASEAN;
• the organisations selected preferably operate/represent stakeholders at a regional or
multi-country level;
• if the number of regional / multi-country level organisations is too low, there should be
an adequate representation of the different ASEAN member countries;
• we will promote a gender balance among participants.
Our partners in ASEAN will be actively involved in identifying and selecting the most
relevant organisations to invite, as will the respective EC Delegations in ASEAN.
A final agenda and list of participants will be discussed and agreed upon with the
Commission and EC Delegations in ASEAN. We have already presented a preliminary
list of civil society and key stakeholders in section 2.3.1 (and Annex E) for ASEAN and
the EU respectively.
Table 2.5 presents the elements that could be included in the workshop agenda. Based on
discussions with the DG Trade and the EC Delegations on what is possible and desirable,
we will make a final proposal for the workshop location, duration, programme, etc.
Table 2.5 Elements of Workshop agenda
Duration Programme
Introduction
15 minutes Opening addresses
30 minutes Key note address
The Trade SIA in progress
30 minutes Main findings of the study so far
60 - 90 minutes Methodology, application of methodology, analysis results, expected input of civil
society
Sectoral and horizontal impact
60-90 minutes FTA impact on different sectors of industry, FTA impact on conducting business
between the EU and ASEAN, FTA impact on agriculture, FTA impact on services
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 26
Duration Programme
The FTA and sustainable development
90 minutes Civil society and its role in reaching FTA agreements: social and developmental
impacts of the FTA – speakers and discussions
90 minutes Civil society and its role in reaching FTA agreements: environmental impacts of the
FTA – speakers and discussions
Break away sessions
45 – 60 minutes Break-away sessions on sustainability issues with economic (sector / business
stakeholders), social (social partners, NGOs) and environmental (NGOs) key
stakeholders, expert participants and moderators from academia and international
organisations.
ongoing Side events (e.g. information market, presentations etc. by participating organisations
and/or member countries)*
Closing session
20 minutes Conclusions, the road ahead and appreciations
Breaks
15-30 minutes Short breaks: coffee, tea, drinks after workshop.
60 minutes Lunch break
* These are merely suggestions for events that could be organised to get participants acquainted with one
another, provoke informal exchanges of information and views and possibly liven up discussions during formal
sessions.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 27
3 Organisation & Planning
Considering the objective for the Trade SIA to flank the negotiation process and to be
concluded before conclusion of the FTA, and due to insights gained in the inception
phase through interactions with the Commission, we would like to propose some changes
to our original planning as presented in our proposal and during the kick-off meeting.
These changes will not affect the overall timing of the project (18 months).
3.1 Recent Developments in the FTA negotiations
The negotiations were launched in May 2007, but have had a slow start and progress is
limited to date, which is in part a consequence of the complexity of the negotiations
between the two trade blocks, of which one – ASEAN – does not have a supranational
governing body (such as the EC) yet with a mandate to negotiate trade agreements on
behalf of its members.
The contours of an FTA between the EU and ASEAN are in a negotiation phase, making
it hard for the evaluation team to quickly develop a base case and liberalisation scenarios.
The FTA should be comprehensive and cover a minimum of 90 percent of goods trade, as
well as services sectors, establishment, and rules (IPR, government procurement,
competition, etc.) and sustainable development. The Commission expects to be able to be
more precise after the 4th negotiating session in Bangkok (16-18 April 2008).
Documentation obtained in part through the Commission, gives an idea of the issues that
might be covered in the Agreement and on the negotiation process. Based on this
documentation and in close cooperation with the negotiators we proposed scenarios, that
will be used as inputs for the modelling exercise, ensuring useful outcomes of this
exercise. As this process has taken up some time, the changes in our proposed work plan
concern mainly an extension of the period needed for completion of this first phase.
3.2 Progress from this point forward
3.2.1 Inception phase
This report concludes the Inception Phase. This Inception Report, once finalised with
comments from the Commission included, will be presented on the TSIA website to
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 28
provide a clear and transparent representation of the methodology and timeline proposed
for this study which can be viewed and commented upon by all interested parties.
3.2.2 Phase 1: Global Analysis
We have already begun work on Phase 1, the Global Analysis of the study, to identify the
current situation surrounding the EU and ASEAN relationship and to look deeper into the
broad range of economic, social and environmental issues that might be impacted by an
EU-ASEAN FTA. The CGE modelling constitutes the quantitative core of this phase and
yields economic and (to a more limited extent) social and environmental impacts. The
overall description and CGE model will provide a snapshot of the economies of both
regions, give an indication of the current trends in terms of social and environmental
issues and subsequently allow for the identification of important sectors and horizontal
issues. We plan to submit a first draft of the Phase 1 Global Analysis Report (GAR) in the
third week of June, 2008.
3.2.3 Phase 2: Sector studies & Workshop
This phase will include the in-depth analysis of sectors and horizontal issues chosen
during Phase 1, as well as 10 case studies and the TSIA Workshop that is planned to be
held in Bangkok in the third week of September 2008. The exact date of the workshop
still needs to be discussed and agreed upon between ECORYS and the Commission. The
results from the in-depth sector studies and feedback from the TSIA Workshop, and a
number of interviews with relevant CSOs will be incorporated into the Interim Report,
which we plan to submit (first draft) to the Commission in the third week of December
2008.
3.2.4 Phase 3: Policy recommendations
Upon inclusion of all comments and final approval, we aim to submit the Approved Final
Report in the last week of June 2009, concluding the entire project.
3.2.5 Working meetings with the Commission and Public Meetings
We aim to organise working meetings with the Commission and Public Meetings –
subject to Commission approval – in the period between Draft and Approved Reports, in
order to be able to adapt the draft report(s) and incorporate the comments from the these
meetings for the final versions.
3.3 Revised timeline of key deliverables and project milestones
Table 3.1 provides a summary timeline of the project, indicating our proposed dates for
key deliverables and project milestones in line with the discussion during the kick-off
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 29
meeting and subsequent communications and taking into account the progress of the EU-
ASEAN negotiation process.
Table 3.1 Updated timeline of deliverables and project milestones
Activity Deadline or date
Kickoff Meeting 21 Jan.
Minutes Steering Committee 14 Feb.
1st Draft Inception Report 15 Feb.
Approval Inception Report Week of 27 April – 2 May
1st Draft GAR 26 June
Steering Committee & Public Meeting* 17/18 July
Minutes Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week 21-25 July
Preliminary Approval GAR Week 28 July – 1 Aug.
Workshop Bangkok* Week of 27-31 October
2nd
Draft GAR Week of 3-7 November
Approval GAR Week of 17-21 November
Minutes Workshop Week of 17-21 November
1st Draft Interim Report Week of 5-9 Jan. (2009)
Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 26-30 Jan. (2009)
Minutes Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 2-6 Feb. (2009)
2nd
Draft Interim Report Week of 9-13 Feb. (2009)
Approval Interim Report Week of 16-20 Feb. (2009)
1st Draft of Final Report Week of 11-15 May (2009)
Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 1-5 June (2009)
Minutes Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 8-12 June (2009)
2nd
Draft Final Report Week of 15-19 June (2009)
3rd Draft Final Report Week of 22-26 June (2009)
Approval Final Report Week of 30 June (2009)
* These dates need to be confirmed as soon as possible so as to allow ample time for booking of venues and general
planning of the meetings.
3.4 Reporting requirements
The details of the reporting requirements have been clarified in the previous sections –
including our anticipated time schedule. The four reports needed and specified in the
Terms of Reference are:
• Inception Report (this one);
• Global Analysis Report;
• Interim Report (including Workshop Report);
• Final Report.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 31
Annex A: Kick-off Note TSIA EU-ASEAN
A) Organisation of the work
1. Overall SIA methodology
The overall TSIA methodology consists of two major parts:
- Trade sustainability impact assessment: economic, social and environmental
assessment of trade negotiations
o In general (trends and overall impact assessment through quantitative
analysis)
o In particular for strategic/important sectors (sectoral analysis and
horizontal issues)
- Consultation process
o Involve civil society throughout the process of the SIA via website
consultations, results dissemination, public meetings and workshop,
incorporation of feedback, and capacity / network building on TSIAs.
We use the handbook, our own experiences with the TSIA EU-Ukraine, other former
TSIA studies such as the Korea and Mercosur studies, earlier (DG Trade commissioned)
studies on an FTA between the EU and ASEAN as the basis – improving on the parts that
were critically received and maintaining the level of parts that were applauded.
ISSUE: Any documentation or information that is not publicly available that could be
useful or is needed for accurate modelling/simulation?
2. Current situation & general analysis
We will analyse the following:
- Current (economic) priorities of the European Union (put the TSIA in a bigger
picture) – regarding enlargement, but also regarding the EU social agenda,
environment, energy and competitiveness
- Current (economic) relationship between the EU and ASEAN
- Current trade intensities between EU and ASEAN (which are the ‘large’ sectors),
where relevant specified by country.
- Current trade policy situation: WTO commitments; intra ASEAN trade policies
and progress on the AFTA; current levels of tariffs / NTBs in trade between
ASEAN and ASEAN Member States with EU; other FTA initiatives of both
trading blocks that may be relevant to an EU-ASEAN FTA (e.g. what is
happening with APEC and EBA).
- What kind of FTA is foreseen? What issues are important for the EU and for
ASEAN in terms of tariff reductions, specific sectors or horizontal issues and
sustainable development issues.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 32
ISSUE: Any documentation or information that is not publicly available that could be
useful?
ISSUE: What kind of FTA is foreseen? How to treat this in light of the different
development levels and progress on trade liberalisation of individual ASEAN Members
and of Intra-ASEAN dynamics (AFTA)?
3. Trade policy modelling
- CGE model also used in Korea TSIA.
- Issues: include specifically EU-ASEAN (SAM ASEAN); also quantitative social
and environmental impacts if possible.
- Data availability – being checked at the moment (cooperation between ASEAN
partners and Prof. Francois with team)
- Limitations of the modelling outcomes (if possible per issue) (e.g. differences
between Eurostat data and data from Southeast Asian and ASEAN Secretariat
statistical databases) – model restrictions.
- Outcomes presented in such a way that they can serve as valuable input for the
negotiations and economic relation between EU and ASEAN if so desired – do
we want to go in this direction?
- Attention to third country effects, especially preference erosion and South-South
trade.
- Sectors – five sectors to be determined in Phase 1 but we have a general idea in
what direction to look:
• Grains – rice production constitutes a large sector for ASEAN.
• Vegetable oils – especially palm oil.
• fisheries – an important sector for ASEAN member states that involves
sustainability issues and faces SPS problems in several of them (e.g.
Indonesia, Thailand)
• Wearing apparel (garments) – a leading sector in terms of employment, often
part of regional and international value chains; restrictions on EU side: EU
impacts
• Automotive (particularly parts) – for the same reason
• Financial and other services
• Pharmaceuticals – an important issue regarding intellectual property rights
(see horizontal issues)
- Horizontal issues – five horizontal issues to be determined in Phase 1 but a
general idea would be:
• Technical standards for industrial products (important addition to quantitative
modelling – lower tariffs do not lead to more trade if quality is not good)
• SPS (same reason)
• Intellectual property rights, which continue to be a major issue in matters of
trade and investments between the EU and ASEAN.
• Rules of Origin – especially for products that are part of regional or
international value chains including for instance China and LDC countries,
such as garments and automotive vehicles.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 33
• Trade facilitation – customs issues are an intra ASEAN priority as well at this
moment.
ISSUE: What is meant with a ‘less ambitious’ scenario? Any specific sectors to be
analysed as part of a more limited integration?
ISSUE: Any ideas for scenarios? Also in light of the previous study (by CEPII –
CIREM) so as to avoid replication.
ISSUE: How to look at third country effects such as preference erosion and South-
South trade – which countries to consider?
ISSUE: How to incorporate and deal with Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar? In terms of
third country effects or as ‘exceptions’ within ASEAN
4. Methodology
- General analysis of trend (Phase 1)
- Trade policy modelling – CGE (Phase 1) + some GSIM if needed
- Causal chain analysis (CCA) (Phase 1 & Phase 2)
- In-depth sectoral / horizontal issue analysis – making use of modelling outcomes
and CCA – and in addition conducting qualitative analysis on issues like
standards, SPS, regulatory approximation, IPR, rules of origin and trade
facilitation (Phase 2)
- Case studies – serving as an illustration for a specific sector (e.g. rice) to deepen
understanding of dynamics and relation to sustainability and possibly also
horizontal issues.
- Written down to allow implications for policy to become clear and including
advice on mitigating and enhancing measures (flanking measures) – some basic
alternatives (Phase 3).
ISSUE: How is the focus regarding quantitative versus qualitative? Issue of
quantitative modelling versus qualitative issues related to SPS, quality standards,
technical standards, etc.
5. Sector studies
Out of points 2 and 3 will officially follow the five sectors and horizontal issues – to be
discussed with steering committee before Phase 2 starts. Sectors and horizontal issues
will be selected on basis of:
- Economic importance (size of sector)
- Economic impact of an FTA on these sectors (quantitative and qualitative) –
outcomes phase 1
- environmental and social impacts (through changes in production structure) of an
FTA on these sectors.
- Importance of sector / issue for EU-ASEAN relationship (e.g. agreements and
treaties )
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 34
- Importance in general EU focus on energy, agriculture, environment and
competitiveness
- Case studies: link specific examples to form case studies to the sectors and
horizontal issues mentioned above to: 1. Illustrate the points being made; 2.
Further deepen the analysis by showing what may happen on a case by case
basis; 3. Serve as examples for Phase 3.
- Extensive involvement of our ASEAN partners, according to their relative
strengths and fields of expertise.
Important is that the sector analyses are based on the modelling outcomes and causal
chain analyses of Phase 1, as well as consultations with key-stakeholders through the
various consultation mechanisms. These form the backbone of the study.
6. Consultation
The consultation process is very important for the TSIA EU-ASEAN. As part of this
process – which runs in parallel to the entire study – we aim to do the following:
- Currently we are building a website for the TSIA for information dissemination
and for attraction of civil society (to be matched with DG Trade website – how to
combine for maximum impact)
- ASEAN partners + Research assistants at ECORYS permanently onto this
- Our Thai partner, the Centre for European Studies, Chulalongkorn University
Bangkok, is organising the workshop, with inputs form al our local partners for
identifying and inviting relevant civil society representatives and stakeholders in
the process – also – when sectors are known – sector experts and representatives.
- The workshop is planned in such a way that the inputs can be used for phase two
of the study.
- We plan face-to-face interviews with specific stakeholders, e.g. sector experts or
sustainable development experts, policy makers, Academics, etc.
ISSUE: Complementary and supportive role of websites ECORYS and DG Trade
ISSUE: Any specific parties we need to consult?
B) Planning of the work
7. Deliverables
• Inception report – a.s.a.p. after this kick-off meeting
• Phase 1: Global analysis report
• Phase 2: Interim report (including consultation phase results)
• Phase 3: Final report
• Overall deliverable: create validity, transparency and credibility for the TSIA
study
Next to the reports, there will also be meetings in BXL and Bangkok for feedback from
steering committee and civil society.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 35
Detailed planning of the work
Activity Deadline or date
Steering Committee Meeting 21/1
Minutes Steering Committee Week of 28/1
2nd
Draft Inception Report Week of 4/2
Approval Inception Report Week of 11/2
1st Draft GAR Week of 26/5
Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 2/6
Minutes Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 9/6
Preliminary approval draft GAR Week of 16/6
Workshop Bangkok Week of 23/6
2nd
Draft GAR Week of 30/6
Minutes Workshop Week of 30/6
Approval GAR Week of 7/7
1st Draft Interim Report Week of 22/12
Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 12/01 (2009)
Minutes Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 19/01
2nd
Draft Interim Report Week of 26/01
Approval Interim Report Week of 2/2
1st Draft of Final Report Week of 20/4
Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 27/4
Minutes Steering Committee & Public Meeting Week of 4/5
2nd
Draft Final Report Week of 11/5
3rd Draft Final Report Week of 18/5
Approval Final Report Week of 25/5
8. Other issues
ISSUE: We would like to have the contact information of the trade negotiators for the
FTA negotiations – for feedback and advice and agree on mode of approaching them
ISSUE: A previous study has been carried out – what does the steering committee
envisage as the added value of the TSIA on top of this study?
We are very open to continuous suggestions for improvement from the side of the
steering committee in order to deliver. The formal (and informal) meetings should
support that aim. Our experience with the Ukraine study has proven that this is an
efficient and effective way of conducting this kind of study and we therefore see it as an
interactive process.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 37
Annex B: Minutes of the Kick-off Meeting
Date: 21-01-2008
Location: Brussels, Charlemagne
Present
For DG Trade: DE BRITO PIRES Nadia (TRADE); DIHEL Nora (TRADE); MEYER
Philippe(TRADE); GRUNBERG Annette (TRADE); VILLANI Michele (TRADE);
PAOLICCHI Alessandro (TRADE); BERZ Peter (TRADE); STEEL Gareth(TRADE);
CIELESZYNSKI Bartosz (TRADE)
For ECORYS: WIJMENGA Paul, BERDEN Koen, SMAKMAN Floor, MANCHIN
Miriam, TAMMINEN Saara, GREEN Dillon.
Opening and introductions
Opening by Chairperson Ms. N. de Brito-Pires: Ms. N. de Brito-Pires welcomes all
participants and extends a word of thanks to the Consultants for having prepared a Kick-
off note. It is decided that the methodology and modelling issues of both studies will be
discussed first, followed by a focused discussion on ASEAN and a discussion on India.
Project Director, Drs. Paul Wijmenga shortly introduces the team and ECORYS approach
to both the TSIAs. It is agreed that the kick-off notes will be used (Annex 1 and Annex 2
to these minutes for ASEAN and India respectively) to guide the meeting.
The methodology and model are presented by ECORYS. The CGE model used to
estimate the effects is of the same type as the GCE model that is used in the TSIA study
between the EU and Korea.
Comments from the Commission and discussion on methodology
1. It is noted that ECORYS should not follow too closely the methods of TSIA studies,
which are not fully concluded (like TSIA Korea);
2. Mrs. Dihel asks for a specification of the technical issues and structure of the GCE
model to be used, e.g. whether the model assumes imperfect or perfect competition,
how investments are modelled, etc.
• Answer: The model assumes imperfect competition for most sectors and constant
returns to scale for some sectors, trade in services is included in the model (mode
1 and mode 2), but there are limitations to the amount of data available on FDI,
hence FDI and investment are not included in the model. In addition the CGE
model does not incorporate dynamic effects of FDI very well. More detailed
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 38
technical specifications will be sent to Mrs. Dihal and included in the inception
report.
3. The model is confirmed to use the GTAP7 data; the model has been built by Prof. Dr.
J. Francois.
4. Mrs. Dihel notes that CEPII has constructed an FDI database with stock and flow
data and asks if ECORYS can look at incorporating the data and the FDI issues into
the GCE model.
• Answer: ECORYS will check these data and look into the possibility to include
them in the model.
5. Mrs. Dihel asks how the non-tariff barriers and barriers to trade in services are
modelled and if the consultants are familiar with the World Bank dataset for trade
restrictiveness indices (by M. Olarreaga). See below the link to the database:
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,content
MDK:21085342~pagePK:64214825~piPK:64214943~theSitePK:469382,00.html
• Answer 1) The barriers to trade in services are estimated with ad-valorem tariff
equivalents – in a general and ‘crude’ way;
• Answer 2) ECORYS is not familiar with the World Bank estimates, but will have
a look at those and get back to this issue in the inception report;
6. TSIA analysis does not only cover the overall EU effects, but also the disaggregation
of the TSIA analysis to EU country-level. It is agreed that with respect to the
modelling, the analysis can be carried out at country level (regional level is
impossible). After that, depending on selected industries, qualitative analysis will be
added to the national data from the CGE modelling.
7. ECORYS is asked to check the reliability of the trade in services data for India. In
addition it is asked if the GTAP data, which are from 2004, could be brought forward
to 2006 level. The most recent data would be important for the negotiators.
• Answer: SAM data are quite robust and do not change much over shorter period
of time (e.g. two years). The 2004 data can be brought forward by incorporating
important policy changes (e.g. ATC) and possibly with some macro-projections.
The trade negotiators have to indicate exactly what policy changes (agreements)
should be taken into account.
8. It is agreed that the consultant will check with the EC on the technical issues of the
model, latest data, estimation techniques, inclusion of data and how the liberalisation
will be done. In addition the consultants will specify all the limitations, assumptions
and the technical structure of the model (e.g. whether short and long term effects can
be separated, dynamic limitations).
• Answer: The model allows for dynamic effects and for short and long term
effects of the impact of the FTA.
9. It is asked how social and environmental indicators and effects are included in the
model.
• Answer: The model includes a number of social indicators, such as employment
effects for high and low skilled labour, wages effects on these groups and
employment effects per sector. Emissions can be also included in the model with,
i.e. what the effects of the FTA will be on emissions (e.g. of CO2).
10. It is asked if emission trading can be included in the model
• Answer: it is not possible to model for example inclusion of ETS in trade
agreements and its effects on emissions, it is only possible to model the impact of
the FTA on emission levels in the EU and India.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 39
11. How will environmental and social impact issues be analysed?
• Answer: After the modelling phase, social and environmental experts will
estimate the social and environmental effects based on the model outcomes
through causal chain analysis. As social (e.g. decent work and child labour)
issues and environmental issues are of specific importance at the moment, the
mechanisms behind the environmental and social effects (stemming from the
economic effects) will be studied in detail. Based on the analyses policy
recommendations will be made.
• Answer: In the past TSIAs, analyses of social and environmental impacts tended
to focus on the counterpart countries and less on the EU. For the current studies
we have engaged experts specialised in social and environmental impact in the
EU context.
12. Will the study compare the effects of multilateral agreements vis-a-vis the FTA
effects?
• Answer: This study will concentrate on an analysis of the sustainable
development effects of an FTA; the effects or relative efficiency of bilateral trade
agreement vis-à-vis multilateral agreements will not be included.
Agreed actions
1. The modelling team and Mrs. Dihel will exchange all technical information and
specifications on the model.
The Consultant will:
2. Check the suggested databases (CEPII FDI stock and flow data as well as NTB
dataset of the World Bank) to see if they are realistic and suitable for
incorporation into the model.
3. Check and report on the reliability of data (continuous process);
4. Send the list of sectors and countries in the GTAP7 database to Ms. De Brito
Pires – who will then distribute these to negotiators and modellers alike;
5. Specify and incorporate the following issues in the Inception Report:
• describe how trade in services is modelled;
• provide a description of how social and environmental impacts are
incorporated into the model and overall analysis (inception report);
• describe how sensitivity tests are included in the modelling (inception report);
• closure rule in the model (inception report).
In addition it is agreed that detailed outcomes will be reported in the Annexes of the
Global Analysis Report.
TSIA on an FTA between EU and ASEAN Key contacts DG Trade: Mr. Michele Villani and Mr Emmanuel Viaud
Key contact ECORYS: Dr. Floor Smakman
Mr. Meyer welcomed everyone and invited the Consultant to give a short presentation.
This was made by Mr. Wijmenga, who explained the methodology to be used. He also
raised specific issues that the Consultant would like to discuss with the negotiators and
the Commission. The presentation followed the Kick-off notes for the meeting (see
Annex 1).
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 40
State of Play in the negotiations
Mr. Meyer gave an update on the state of play in the negotiations. All 10 ASEAN
countries are present in the negotiation process on account of the region-to-region
negotiating modality. However, although the EC negotiating authorisation does not
concern Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar due to economic and political considerations,
these countries should be nevertheless covered under the TSIA, particularly in respect of
agriculture. The negotiations have had a slow start and progress is limited, hence the
negotiators can not answer specifically what kind of scenarios the consultants should
assume for the study. Some documents were suggested to the consultants to help them
understand the negotiation process and to give insight on what issues might be covered in
the Agreement.
Comments from Commission representatives and discussion
1. Referring to the question of which third countries are to be studied, Mr. Meyer
answered that the three ASEAN LDC countries are to be treated as exceptions among
the ASEAN countries (see above on their exclusion from mandate), and e.g. India,
Bangladesh and Pakistan could be studied as third countries in the study.
2. The baseline scenario will depend on whether the DDA will be successful or not,
hence will be specified later. Probably the FTA will cover around 90% of goods
trade, but it will be specified further to which extent trade in services/investment and,
if at all, in IPR, procurement markets, etc. will be covered. The Commission expects
to be able to be more precise in approximately three months, i.e. hopefully after the
4th negotiating session in Bangkok (16-18 April).
• Answer: The Consultant agreed on a slight change in the start of the study and
subsequent work schedule, in order to model realistic scenarios. Slight
adjustments to the initial timetable presented in the ToR may be possible
(especially in the Reporting times), but this will not affect the overall timing of
the project (18 months) unless later agreed otherwise with the Commission.
3. The Consultants asked clarification on what is considered to be a sector and what a
subsector. It was agreed that the specific sectors to be studied will be decided after
the Phase 1, and that it should be more specific than for example ‘agriculture’ as this
is too broad (too high a level of aggregation). However, grains could be an example
of a sector to be studied.
4. The negotiators where happy with the preliminary list of sectors and horizontal issues
that may be important. However a few additions and changes were suggested:
• add public procurement as an important horizontal issue;
• technical standards are not seen as an important priority in terms of horizontal
issue for further study, but sanitary and phytosanitary standards are;
• the investment regimes could be studied as a horizontal issue, with establishment
in services and non-services sectors as a key aspect;
• cars production (not just parts) might be an interesting sector to study, also in the
light of investment and market access issues for, for instance German cars on the
ASEAN markets.
5. The Consultant stressed that this is merely a preliminary list based on ‘gut feelings’
of what will be important; a final selection can only be made after phase 1 and will
include 5 sectors and 5 horizontal issues.
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 41
6. The Commission agreed to give the Consultant contact details of the key persons for
the ASEAN study (including EC Delegations in ASEAN). The Consultant was also
invited to keep close contact with the ASEAN negotiators.
7. WTO commitment/DDA and Intra-ASEAN integration Agreements and, possibly,
ASEAN FTAs with third countries were mentioned as important other Agreements to
take into consideration in the study.
8. Additionally, as indicated in the proposal submitted by ECORYS for this study, the
qualitative and quantitative studies carried out in 2006 as a preparatory work to the
Vision Group report will be considered.
9. The Consultant was advised to visit www.bilaterals.org.
Agreed actions
Commission:
1. Provide the Consultant with (i) Work program 2008 for ASEAN; (ii) internal paper
on the negotiations template.
2. Provide a list with key contacts for the study;
3. Inform the Consultant of the progress with the negotiations.
Consultant
1. Provide the Steering Committee with a draft Inception Report in which the above
details and discussions are specified and clarified and a new timetable of both studies
will be included..
TSIA on an FTA between EU and India Key contact DG Trade: Mrs. Annette Grunberg
Key contact ECORYS: Dr. Koen Berden
The state of play in the negotiation
Mrs. Annette Grunberg provided a short presentation on the state of play in the
negotiations. These have progressed further with India than is the case with ASEAN. Two
rounds of negotiations have taken place in addition to the launch in June 2007 and some
progress has been made. The EU hopes for an ambitious FTA, covering goods, services,
SPS, TBT, public procurement, IPR, rules of origin, competition policy and sustainable
development. She also informed all present that the High Level Trade Group – report
could be used to understand further what is meant with an ambitious agreement. India is
keen on finishing the negotiations by the end of 2008, but question mark remains whether
this is a realistic timetable given that for EU ambition is more important than speed.
Comments from Commission representatives and discussion
1. The confidentiality of the information provided to ECORYS was stressed. All
ECORYS team members are to sign confidentiality statements, after which further
information will be dispatched;
2. ECORYS asks to be informed about the progress in the negotiations on a continuing
basis, which is agreed between Mrs. Grunberg and Mr. Berden;
3. ECORYS promises to look into the possibility of speeding up the India study so that
it can be more or less finished by the end of 2008. The main question is, whether this
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 42
change in time schedule is agreeable for the modelling team. ECORYS will get back
on this;
4. A schedule change to the original planning will occur. While the India study will start
immediately, the ASEAN study could be commenced at a slower pace. It is worth
considering that the ASEAN study will improve its focus/analysis should clearer
scenarios emerge in the course of the negotiations. The project schedules will follow
closely the negotiation progress, and the India study is likely to be finished before the
ASEAN study in order to get all information to the negotiators before the end of the
negotiations. The overall timeframe of 18 months for both studies will remain;
5. In services all modes are considered to be important and EU would like to go beyond
the current level of openness in trade in services. The Consultants will specify in the
Inception Report how the trade in services will be included in the GCE model;
6. The negotiators will look at the modelling specifications in the Inception Report and
give their comments;
7. ECORYS team and the Commission brainstormed possible sectors and horizontal
issues for Phase 2 and the Commission promised to think about them further.
However, the final selection will be made after Phase 1 screening results are
available. This screening will take into consideration the estimated economic, social
and environmental impacts, the economic importance of the sectors and the feedback
received from stakeholders;
8. Third countries that should be studied as regards impact of EU-India FTA include
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Rest of South Asia – countries (group in
GTAP7 database – which are Afghanistan, Maldives, Nepal and Bhutan). The
Consultants will do the preliminary selection and the Steering Committee will give its
comments;
9. The Commission stressed the importance of managing the consortium well –
including the Indian partners – with the view of doing an objective and independent
study.
10. Two studies have already been carried out to assess potential quantitative and
qualitative effects of the EU-India FTA and these studies should be taken into
account when conducting this SIA.
Agreed actions
Commission:
1. Provide contact details of the negotiators for the EU-India FTA;
2. Provide confidentiality statement to be signed by ECORYS prior to receiving
confidential documents that can be used in the report(s) (ASEAN and India).
Consultant
1. Provide the Steering Committee with a draft Inception Report in which the above
details and discussions are specified and clarified and a new timetable is included.
Rotterdam, February 8, 2008
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 43
Annex C: Theoretical Foundations of the Model
“Trade Liberalization in the Doha Round”.
Francois, van Meijl, and van Tongeren (2005).
Economic Policy, Vol. 20, pp. 349-391.
See PDF attached separately
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 45
Annex D: Model Technical Annex
See PDF attached separately
Document can also be found through: http://www.i4ide.org/data/Tech_Annex.pdf
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 47
Annex E: Key stakeholders ASEAN Member
States – Preliminary lists
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 49
THAILAND
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Thailand Mr. Virasakdi Futrakul
Ministry of Commerce, Department of Trade Negotiations Mrs. Kejpiroon Kate Kohsuwan
Government-promoted Export Bodies/Councils
Department of Export Promotion -Thailand t.b.d.
Business Chambers
International Chamber of Commerce – Thailand Chavinda Hantaveevongsa (MD)
The Thai Chamber of Commerce, Board of Trade of
Thailand
Mr. Buntoon Wongseelashote
Civil Society/Academia Thailand
BIOTHAI (Biodiversity and Community Rights Action
Thailand)
www.biothai.org
Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand Professor Suthipand Chirativat
Empowering People for Strong Civil Society – Thailand Chalida Tajaroenstuk, Coordinator
Federation of the Thai Industries www.fti.or.th/FTI%20Project/index_mainEng.aspx
Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) Dr. Somchai Jitsuchon
Research Dir. Macroeconomic Development and
Income Distribution
Thailand Environmental Institute (TEI) Qwanruedee Chotichanathawewong
FTA Watch
Solidarity for Asian People’s Advocacy (SAPA) - Bangkok www.asiasapa.org
Population and Community Development Association www.pda.or.th
… to be extended
MALAYSIA
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Ministry of International Trade and Industry - Malaysia Secr.Gen. Y. Dato' Abdul Rahman Mamat
Government-promoted Export Bodies/Councils
Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (MATRADE) Jalan Khidmat Usaha
Business Chambers
International Chamber of Commerce – Malaysia Exec. Dir. Cheng Suan Lee
EuroChambres
Civil Society/Academia Malaysia
Centre for Environment, Technology and Development –
Malaysia
Gurmit Singh
Education and Research Association for Consumers, Malaysia
(ERA Consumer, Malaysia)
www.eraconsumer.org
Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) – Malaysia Mahani Zainal Adibin, Dir.Gen., Mohamed
Jawhar Hassan
National Council of Social Welfare & Social Development
Malaysia - NCWSDM
To Be Determined
Malaysian Institute for Economic Research (MIER) To Be Determined
SERI - Socio-Economic & Environmental Research Institute
(Penang, Malaysia)
To Be Determined
University Malaya Prof. Dr. Norma Mansor
… to be extended
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 50
SINGAPORE
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Ministry of Trade and Industry - Singapore Mr. Ong Boom Kwee
Government-promoted Export Bodies/Councils
International Enterprise Singapore (formerly Singapore Trade
Development Board)
http://www.iesingapore.gov.sg/wps/portal
Business Chambers
Singapore International Chamber of Commerce (SICC) To Be Determined
EuroCham Mrs. Jutta de Petrini, Mr. Joachim Ihrcke
Civil Society/Academia
Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA)
Organised the ACSC 2007 (ASEAN Civil Society Conference
2007)
www.siiaonline.org
Prof. Hank Lim, Director
Singapore Environment Council www.sec.org.sg
The Singapore Council of Women's Organisations (SCWO) www.scwo.org.sg/cms
… to be extended
PHILIPPINES
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Department of Trade and Industry - Philippines Ass. Secr. Ramon Vincente T. Kabigting
Government-promoted Export Bodies/Councils
Bureau of Export Trade Promotion - Philippines To Be Determined
Business Chambers
Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) To Be Determined
EuroCham
Civil Society/Academia
Philippine Alliance of Human Rights Advocates (PHARA) www.philippinehumanrights.org/
Makati Business Club t.b.d.
PhilExport t.b.d.
Philippine Sustainable Development Network Foundation Inc.
(PSDN)
http://www.psdn.org.ph/
Philippine European Solidarity Centre http://www.philsol.nl/
Philippine Partnership for the Development of Human Resources
in Rural Areas (PhilDHRRA)
Jesus Vincente Garganera
National Coordinator
Philippines Environmental NGO Network To Be Determined
… to be extended
BRUNEI
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade –Brunei Darussalam Pengiran Dato Paduka Osman Patra
Business Chambers
Brunei International Chamber of Commerce and Industry To Be Determined
Civil Society/Academia
University Brunei Darussalam Hajah Sainah Haji Saim
Institute for Policy Studies
… to be extended
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 51
INDONESIA
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Ministry of Industry - Indonesia Dep.Dir. of Int. Cooperation Euis Saedah
Ministry of Trade – Indonesia Dir.Gen. for Int. Cooperation Ibu Herliza
Ministry of Forestry – Indonesia Mr. Satria Astana
Government-promoted Export Bodies/Councils
National department of export
promotion - Indonesia
To Be Determined
Business Chambers
Chamber of Commerce and Industry in
Indonesia (KADIN)
To Be Determined
European Business Chamber of
Commerce in Indonesia (Eurocham)
Mr. Jean-Francois Fichaux
Civil Society/Academia
Centre for International Forestry
Research (CIFOR) - Indonesia
Mr. Christopher M. Barr
Centre for Strategic and International
Studies – Indonesia
Deni Friawan, Lina Alexandra
Human Rights Working Group (HRWG)
- Indonesia
Rafendi Djamin, Co-coordinator
Indonesian Secretariat for the
Development of Human Resources in
Rural Areas (Bina Desa or InDHRRA)
http://www.binadesa.or.id/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1
LEAD Indonesia To Be Determined
Social Analysis and Research Institute
SARI (Indonesia)
To Be Determined
Universitas Gadjah Madah – Indonesia Dr. Hargo Utomo (UGM – MM)
Worldbank Indonesia Mr. William Wallace
ILO Indonesia t.b.d.
… to be extended
CAMBODIA
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Ministry of Commerce - Cambodia To Be Determined
Government-promoted Export Bodies/Councils
Export Promotion Department – Cambodia To Be Determined
Business Chambers
Chamber of Commerce Cambodia To Be Determined
Civil Society/Academia
Cambodian Federation for Human Rights Development Vesna Thao, Chairman
Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace Chanta Neth, Dep.Ex.Dir.
Sotharith Chap, Ex.Dir.
Democracy Agency Center – Cambodia Channa Oeur, Chairman
… to be extended
VIETNAM
Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment of the FTA to be negotiated between the EU and 52
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Ministry of Industry and Trade, Mr. Tran Quoc Khanh, DG Multilateral Trade
Policy Department
Mr. Bui Huy Son, Vice DG of Multilateral
Trade Policy Dept.
Ministry of Planning and Environment (MPI), Dept. of
International Cooperation
Mr. Ho Quang Minh, DG
Ministry of Finance, International Cooperation Department Pham Cong Minh
Government-promoted Export Bodies/Councils
t.b.d.
Business Chambers
Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) To Be Determined
Civil Society/Academia
Vietnam Environment and Sustainable Development Institute To Be Determined
Central Institute for Economic Management Dir. Vo Tri Thanh, Ph.D. ANU
Vietnam’s Labor Federation Nguyen Van Tuan
Worldbank Vietnam Mr. Martin Rama; Mrs. Maria Delfina Alcaide
Garrido
VUSTA, Vietnam Union of Science and Technology Associations http://www.vusta.vn/English/index.asp
Vietnam Fatherland Front t.b.d.
VUFO - NGO Resource Centre Ms. Trine Glue Doan
… to be extended
LAOS
Ministries / relevant Government Bodies
Ministry of Industry and Commerce – Lao PDR To Be Determined
Government-promoted Export Bodies/Councils
Lao Trade Promotion Centre To Be Determined
Business Chambers
Lao National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LNCCI) To Be Determined
Civil Society/Academia
Institute of Foreign Affairs – Lao PDR Malayvieng Sakonhninhom, Santi Inthisone
Viengkham Phnommeuang
… to be extended