trade war: who wins and who loses - icf.at · china did not start (but probably accelerated) us...
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October 2018
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
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For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
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Trade War: Who Wins and Who Loses
Prepared for ICF Congress 2018 in Muscat, Oman
Hui Shan Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 212-902-4447 [email protected]
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Outline
A look at history
US effective tariffs rate declining over the past century
Historically US current account improved in recessions
China did not start (but probably accelerated) US manufacturing job losses
Where are we now?
Trade threats have become reality
Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs still evolving
Direct impact on economy limited so far
Our view
Tariffs redirect, not eliminate, trade flows
Headline risk higher, not lower, after the US mid-term election
US-China trade war more than just trade war
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Long history of US trade policy
.
For most of the 19th century, the US maintains a largely protectionist trade stance
Begnning in the mid-1930s, the US significantly reduces tariffs while attempting to secure
reciprocal market access
Beginning in 1989, free-trade agreements (FTAs) proliferate; as multilateral talks stall, US trade
negotiations shift towards bilateral and regional trade pacts
Source: US International Trade Commission, US Department of Commerce, WTO, Irwin, Douglas A., "Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy," Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Historically US current account improved in recessions
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%%Recession US Current Account Balance as % of GDP
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Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
China did not start US manufacturing job losses
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Million%
US Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Share of US Jobs
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Source: Dataminr.
Trade tensions escalating
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tweets per hour Tweets per hour
Solar panels& Davos
Steelannounced
Steel/NAFTAdebates
China/Section 301
More Chinatariffs
Canada/Mexexcemptions
Steelimposed
G8
Autos China
Volume of Tweets About "Tariffs"
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Source: USITC, White House, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Tariff threats start to become reality
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Proposed
Implemented
Billions of dollars Billions of dollars
Steel
& Alum
China 301
Tarif f s
Announced
($50bn) Additional China 301*
Sec. 232Autos
AdditionalChina 301*
Washing Machines
& Solar Panels
US Imports Subject to Proposed vs. Implemented Tariffs
Steel and aluminum
*In April, the White House proposed tarif f s on additional $100bn in imports in response to China's retaliation.This supplemental proposal was increased to $400bn on June 18 and to all remaining imports on July 20.
China 301: Remaining imports*
China: +$200bn
imposed
Sept. 24
China:+$16bn
China:+$34bn
*In April, the White House proposed tarif f s on additional $100bn in imports in response to China's retaliation.This supplemental proposal was increased to $400bn on June 18 and to all remaining imports on July 20.
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
US effective tariff rate increased
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1890 1915 1940 1965 1990 2015
Effective September 24
Including Remaining China Tariffs
US Effective Tariff Rate
(Gross Customs Duties, as Share of Total Imports)
Percent Percent
*Includes (1) enacted tariffs on steel and aluminum, solar panels, washing machines, and $50bn in imports from China as well as (2) proposed tariffson $200bn in imports from China at a rate of 10%.**Includes January 2019 tariff rate increase from 10% to 25% on $200bn and additional $267bn for remaining imports from China at 10% rate.
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Source: USITC, United Nations, WTO, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Initial tariffs avoided consumer products
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Tranche 1 - $34bn Tranche 2 - $16bn Next $200bn Remaining $267bn
Capital
Intermediate
Consumption
Billions of dollars Billions of dollars
US Imports From China by Broad Economic Category
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Source: USGS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
One can make a case for aluminum tariffs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%% Aluminum Smelter Capacity Utilization Rate in 2017
37%
11%
21%
33%
41%
53%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ReliancektUS Aluminum Production and Import Reliance
Primary Aluminum Production Import Reliance (RHS)
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum
Country Current Status Date effective
Aluminum Steel
Argentina 3.8% 0.6% June 1st, 2018
Australia 1.5% 0.8% June 1st, 2018
Brazil 0.8% 13.5% June 1st, 2018
South Korea 0.5% 9.8% June 1st, 2018
Turkey 0.2% 5.7% August 13th, 2018
Indonesia 1.2% 0.1% September, 2018
Other Countries 93.5% 75.2% March 23rd, 2018
* Set out in Proclamation 7604 as 25% tariff on steel and 10% tariff on aluminum
** President Trump tweeted tariffs would increase to 20% for aluminum, but no Proclamation has been issued
*** Announced by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade
**** Companies may apply for product exclusions based on insufficient quanitity or quality available from U.S. steel or aluminum producers, ~120 companies awarded exemptions as of September
Indonesia awarded exemption on 161 steel products***
Subject to current tariff levels*
Import share (2017)
Quota of average annual import volume from 2015-2017 for
aluminum; quota of 135% of average annual import volume from
2015-2017 for steel
Exempt from tariffs, no expiration date
Subject to current tariff levels for aluminum; quota of 70% of average
annual import volume from 2015-2017 for finished steel products and
100% of average for semi-finished steel products
Subject to current tariff levels for aluminum; quota of 70% of average
annual import volume from 2015-2017 for steel
Steel articles covered by Section 232 subject to tariff of 50%**
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Source: Company Data, USGS, US Dept. of Commerce, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Trade is complicated
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Tariffs redirect, not eliminate, trade flows
Source: CEIC, USDA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
The case of oil… … and the case of soybean
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The politics of US-China trade are different
Source: Pew Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Total
Republican
Democratic
Percentage points Percentage points
Share of public that views trade agreements as "agood thing" minus share that sees as "bad thing"
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Canada EU Japan Mexico China
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Trade with ____ is "fair" minus "unfair" (June 2018)
Percentage points Percentage points
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Prediction markets imply a divided congress
Source: PredictIt.. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-2017 Nov-2017 Jan-2018 Mar-2018 May-2018 Jul-2018 Sep-2018 Nov-2018
Senate
House
Implied Probability Congressional Republicans Retain MajorityAs of October 12, 2018
Percent Percent
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For China, trade war is more than just trade war
Source: CEIC. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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Disclosure Appendix
October 12, 2018
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure
Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
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