traffic 101

8/9/2019 Traffic 101

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Toll Traffic and Revenue ForecastsToll Traffic and Revenue Forecasts

David R. DanforthVice PresidentWilbur Smith Associates

Turnpike 101

November 21, 2006

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


TodayToday’’s Presentations Presentation

•• What is a toll road financial feasibility study?What is a toll road financial feasibility study?•• Why is it necessary?Why is it necessary?

•• What is the forecasting process?What is the forecasting process?•• What are the next steps?What are the next steps?

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


Levels of Toll StudiesLevels of Toll Studies

•• Level 1Level 1 – – Sketch levelSketch level

−−Project screeningProject screening

•• Level 2Level 2 – – Preliminary StudyPreliminary Study

−−Indicative toll traffic, revenue, and feasibilityIndicative toll traffic, revenue, and feasibility

•• Level 3Level 3 – – Investment GradeInvestment Grade

−−““CertifiedCertified”” revenue, used by bond rating agencies andrevenue, used by bond rating agencies andinvestors to evaluate financial return on the projectinvestors to evaluate financial return on the project

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


Level “0”

Initial

Screening

Process

Level 1

Screening

Level 2

Screening

Project

Finance

and

Implementation

Level 3

Investment

Grade

Studies

Toll Candidate Screening and Study ProcessToll Candidate Screening and Study ProcessToll Candidate Screening and Study Process

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


Level 1Level 1 – – Sketch Level Traffic & Revenue StudySketch Level Traffic & Revenue Study

•• 11 – – 2 months2 months

•• Existing Data SourcesExisting Data Sources – – traffic counts,traffic counts,socioeconomic parameterssocioeconomic parameters

•• Limited Travel Demand Modeling using ExistingLimited Travel Demand Modeling using ExistingModelsModels

•• Used for ScreeningUsed for Screening

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


Level 2 Preliminary Traffic & Revenue StudyLevel 2 Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Study

•• 33 – – 6 months6 months

•• Existing Travel Demand ModelsExisting Travel Demand Models – – limited refinementslimited refinements

•• New Traffic CountsNew Traffic Counts•• Speed & Delay StudiesSpeed & Delay Studies

•• Model Calibration in the Corridor Model Calibration in the Corridor

•• Socioeconomic Review with Limited AdjustmentsSocioeconomic Review with Limited Adjustments•• Value of Time from Census StatisticsValue of Time from Census Statistics•• Toll SensitivityToll Sensitivity

•• Total Corridor DemandTotal Corridor Demand•• Diversion to Toll FacilityDiversion to Toll Facility – – Toll RevenueToll Revenue

•• Input to Preliminary Financial AnalysisInput to Preliminary Financial Analysis

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


Level 3Level 3 – – Investment Grade Traffic & Revenue StudyInvestment Grade Traffic & Revenue Study

•• 88 – – 12 months12 months•• Study cost around $1 millionStudy cost around $1 million

•• Existing Travel Demand Models with AdjustmentsExisting Travel Demand Models with Adjustments

•• New Counts and Speed/Delay StudiesNew Counts and Speed/Delay Studies•• OriginOrigin--Destination SurveysDestination Surveys

•• Stated Preference SurveysStated Preference Surveys•• Independent Economic Review and AdjustmentsIndependent Economic Review and Adjustments

•• Operational Analysis and Toll TechnologyOperational Analysis and Toll Technology

•• New Travel Demand Forecasts Including TransitNew Travel Demand Forecasts Including Transit•• Toll SensitivityToll Sensitivity

•• External Sensitivity TestsExternal Sensitivity Tests

•• ““CertifiedCertified”” Revenue Forecasts to Bond Rating AgenciesRevenue Forecasts to Bond Rating Agenciesand Investorsand Investors

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


Toll Facility Traffic & Revenue ModelingToll Facility Traffic & Revenue Modeling

•• How much travel demand is in the corridor?How much travel demand is in the corridor?−−

Passenger vehiclesPassenger vehicles Cars, HOV, TransitCars, HOV, Transit

−− Commercial vehiclesCommercial vehicles

Light, medium, heavyLight, medium, heavy•• How much are people willing to pay to use the tollHow much are people willing to pay to use the toll

facility?facility?

•• How much will total demand grow?How much will total demand grow?

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Toll Modeling OverviewToll Modeling OverviewToll Modeling Overview

DATA COLLECTION

• Traffic Counts•

•

Corridor Growth

SIMULATION MODELING

Assess Future Delays

MarketShare

Micromodel

GLOBAL DEMANDTRIP TABLES

• SOV

• HOV 2

• HOV 3+

• A.M. Peak• A.M. Shoulder

• Midday• P.M. Peak

• P.M. Shoulders• Night

TYPICAL OUTPUT

• Toll Sensitivity

• Traffic• Revenue• VMT General Purpose Lanes

• VMT Managed Lanes• Average Speed General

Purpose Lanes• Average Speed Managed

Lanes

DATA COLLECTION

• Traffic Counts• Travel Time Surveys

• Vehicle OccupancyCounts

REGIONAL TRAVEL

DEMAND TRIP

TABLES

INDEPENDENT

ECONOMIC

INPUTS

STATED PREFERENCE

SURVEYS:

TollsTollsOther FactorsOther Factors

Corridor Growth

SIMULATION MODELING

Assess Future Delays

MarketShare

Micromodel


• SOV

• HOV 2

• HOV 3+


• Midday• P.M. Peak• P.M. Shoulders• Night


• SOV

• HOV 2

• HOV 3+


• Midday• P.M. Peak• P.M. Shoulders• Night

TYPICAL OUTPUT

• Toll Sensitivity

• Traffic• Revenue• VMT General Purpose Lanes

• VMT Managed Lanes• Average Speed General

Purpose Lanes

• Average Speed ManagedLanes

How Much Will Demand Grow?How Much Will Demand Grow?

How Much Demand Exists?How Much Demand Exists? How Much Are People Willing To Pay?How Much Are People Willing To Pay?

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


Example Toll SensitivityExample Toll Sensitivity

Per Mile Toll Rate in Cents Per Mile Per Mile Toll Rate in Cents Per Mile

HOV 2+ Free

AM Peak Southbound

R e v e

n u e

( T h o u s

a n d s )

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 6055

$12

$10

$8

$6

$4

$2

$0

T o l l e d

T r a n s a c t i o n

s

( T h o u s a n d s

)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 6055

54

3

2

1

0

A v e r a g e T r a v e l S p e e

d s

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 6055

80

7060

50

40

30

20

10

0General Purpose Lanes

Managed Lanes

60

60

60

HOV 3+ Free

AM Peak Southbound

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

80

7060

50

40

30

20

10

0General Purpose Lanes

Managed Lanes

R e v e

n u e

( T h o u s

a n d s )

T o l l e d

T r a n s a c t i o n

s

( T h o u s a n d s )

A v e r a g e T r a v e l S p e e

d s

6

7

$12

$10

$8

$6

$4

$2

$0

54

3

2

1

0

6

7

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Year

G r o s s T o l l R e

v e n u e ( M i l l i o n s )

Scenario 1

Scenario 1AScenario 1B

LEGEND

Example Toll Revenue ForecastExample Toll Revenue Forecast

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


Triangle TurnpikeTriangle Turnpike

•• First Project to Move to Investment Grade StudyFirst Project to Move to Investment Grade Study

•• Important New Access to RTP and Other EmploymentImportant New Access to RTP and Other EmploymentSitesSites

••

Preliminary Studies Show Strong Revenue PotentialPreliminary Studies Show Strong Revenue Potential

−− But additional funding beyond tolls will be neededBut additional funding beyond tolls will be needed

8/9/2019 Traffic 101


For More Information:For More Information:

David R. DanforthDavid R. DanforthVice PresidentVice PresidentWilbur Smith AssociatesWilbur Smith Associates900 Chapel Street, Suite 1400900 Chapel Street, Suite 1400

New Haven, CT 06510New Haven, CT 06510--28022802

Phone:Phone: (203) 865(203) 865--21912191

Fax:Fax: (203) 624(203) 624--0048400484EE--mail:mail: [email protected]@wilbursmith.comWeb:Web: www.wilbursmith.comwww.wilbursmith.com

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