Tran Thi Ut

Faculty of Economics,

UAF, HCM City, VN

Green Revolution In Asia And Its Transferability To Africa

Tokyo, Japan

8-10, December 2002

Introduction

The stagnation rice production in 1960s-70sRapid growth of rice production in 1980s-90s The effects of “miracle rice” and the “Doi Moi”

policies in rice production from 1980s-1990sPurposes of the paper:to assess the relative contribution of the “Doi Moi”

and other reform policies using regional datato explore whether GR has been sustainable in the

country ? to examine the yield gap between favorable and

unfavorable rice production area to inquire what factor affect yield using HH level data

MV Adoption and Yield Changes in VN

MV adoption

Southern VN -May 1966, IR8 was first introduced and was renamed to

Than Nong 8 (TN8)(Than Nong :Miracle rice), - in 1975 : 33% rice area with MV

Northern VN - In 1968 IR 8 was introduced and was renamed to Nong

Nghiep 8 (NN8) (Nong Nghiep: Agriculture) - IR8 was adopted to the winter-spring 1968, covered

50% rice area

Table 1. Adoption of MVs and TVs in Southern Vietnam, 1968-75

Sources: a National Statistical Institute, Saigon, 1974. b Estimated from Rice Department, Saigon, 1974.

Cropping season

MV adoption

area (1,000 ha) a

TV adoption

area (1,000 ha)

Total rice

area b (1,000 ha)

Percentage of MV

adoption (%)

1968-69 23 2,370 2,394 1.0 1969-70 204 2,226 2,430 8.4 1970-71 452 1,959 2,411 18.8 1971-72 675 1,836 2,510 26.9 1972-73 835 1,865 2,700 30.9 1973-74 890 1,860 2,750 32.4 1974-75 950 1,900 2,850 33.3

Problem of MV1 and the introduction of MV2

1972: IR8 & IR5 were affected by BPH and were replaced by TN73-1 (IR1529-6-80), TN73-2 (IR 1561-22-8), IR26 , IR30. 1978: 700,000 ha of rice areas planted to MVs in MRD were damaged by BPH and ragged stunt disease, and IR36 with strong resistance to new BPH was rapidly introduced.Can Tho University developed a new series of MVs with good grain quality and strong resistance to new BPH from 300 line crosses with cultivars containing the BPH-resistance gene from IRRI.IR42 has shown great suitability and virtually replace the traditional medium –height rice varieties in saline-affected rainfed rice field with semi-deep water in MRD.1980s : IR1820-210-2 (IRRI) and CR203(VASI) with highly resistant to blast were widely planted for the blast prone areas in northern VN.

Fig 1a. Changes in MV Adoption and Yields of Rice per Hectare in Northern

Vietnam

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year

Yie

ld (

ton

s/h

a)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

MV

rati

o (

%)

Yield

MV ratio

  Fig. 1a. Changes in MV Adoption and Yields of Rice per Hectare in Southern

Vietnam 1980-98

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.568

-69

69-7

070

-71

71-7

272

-73

73-7

474

-75

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Year

Yie

ld (

ton

s/h

a)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

MV

rat

io (

%)

Yield MV ratio

=.

Fig.2 Location of major rice growing regions

North Mountain Highland

Red River Delta

North Central Coast

South Central Coast

Central Highland

North East South

Mekong River Delta

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

NMH

NCC

Table 2. Changes in Total Rice Area and MV Adoption by Major Ecological Region in

Selected Years from 1980 to 1998

Adoption Rate of MVs (%)

Year

Total Rice Area (1000

ha) Avg.

NMH RRD NCC SCC CH NES MRD

1980 5,543 16.9 4.7 52.9 10.1 17.3 2.3 9.3 9.7

1985 5,703 28.5 6.4 68.4 11.8 23.0 9.8 16.3 26.4

1990 6,028 47.5 30.8 78.5 17.6 47.6 44.3 41.3 48.3

1995 6,766 76.2 63.8 90.5 62.0 60.8 75.2 79.7 79.8

1998 7,362 87.2 81.2 92.2 87.1 81.9 83.0 91.3 87.7

Table 3. Yield of MVs and TVs (tons/ha) by Major Ecological Region , 1980-1998

NMH RRD NCC SCC CH NES MRD

MVs TVs MVs TVs MVs

TVs MVs TVs MVs TV MVs TVs MVs TVs

1980 2.1 1.3 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.3 1985 2.6 2.1 3.2 2.3 2.4 2.1 3.4 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.1 1990 2.9 2.4 3.8 2.1 2.6 2.4 3.5 3.0 2.8 1.9 2.8 2.4 4.0 3.4 1995 3.1 3.0 4.7 2.0 3.2 3.0 3.8 2.8 2.8 1.5 2.8 2.1 4.2 3.3 1998 3.4 2.5 5.3 3.1 3.7 2.5 3.7 2.5 3.0 0.9 3.0 1.5 4.3 2.8

Development of MVs in VN

Shorten the growth duration: OM1490 , OMCS96 (85-90 days)

Saline tolerance THDB (mutant from TVs)

Developed a series MVs with resistance to pest and diseases for IRG areas, and tolerance of salinity and acid sulfate for rainfed areas

Estimation Results of Yield Regression

The model

Ln yit = a0+ a1 MVit + i MVit (Regional Dummy)i +

i (Regional Dummy)i + t (Year Dummy)t + it .The results MV adoption dummy is positive and significant in 1980-98 MV*regional dummies are all negative and significant Coefficient of MV dummy is significantly larger for 1980s than for 1990s The coefficients of MV*NMH, MV*NCC, MV*SCC are neg. and became larger from 1980s to 1990s The coefficients of MV*NES and MV*MRD remained largely in 1980s and 1990sCoefficients of year dummies are positive and significant in 1980s but not so in 1990s compare with the base year 1980

-

Implication of Regression Results

Green Revolution in Vietnam has been sustained by continuous improvement of MVs particularly for relatively favorable rice areas such as in RRD and MRD

Table 5. Basic Characteristics of Sample Villages

and Sample Size of Households

Yield

(ton/ha)

Province District Village Agro-

ecosystem

S. size

Dry Wet

Thai Nguyen

(NMH)

Dai Tu

Dong Hy

Hung Son

Quang Son

IRG. H.land

Rfed .Hland

48

45(38)a

4.6

3.4

4.1

3.5

Hanoi (RRD)

Gia Lam Soc Son

Dong Du Bac Phu

IRG Lland

Rfed L.land

50 50

5.0 3.0

4.2 1.6

Long An (Outer Reg. MRD)

C. Giuoc C. Giuoc

My Loc V.Dong

IRG.L.land

Rfed.Lland

44 50

3.2 2.0

3.5 2.3

Can Tho (MRD)

T.Not

T.Not

Th.An

Th. Thang

IRG.L.land

IRG.Lland

44

45

6.7 7.0

4.5 4.2

Total 376

Table 6. Socio-Economic Characteristics of

Sample Households

Irrigated lowland

Irrigated highland

Rainfed lowland

Rainfed highland

N.sample households 183 48 100 38 Total farm size (ha) 0.94 0.18 0.49 1.37 Rice area (ha) 0.89 0.18 0.36 0.29 Rice cropping intensity

1.98 1.99 1.23 1.21

Age of HH heads 50.1 51.0 44.3 37.2 Schooling of HH heads

5.8 5.8 6.3 5.5

Proportion of fem. heads

20 19 25 47

HH. size (persons) 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.6 Number of workers (15-60 year old)

3.5 3.2 3.2 3.6

Table 7. MV Adoption, Rice Yields, and Fertilizer Application Across Production Environments by Cropping Season a

Irrigated

lowland Irrigated highland

Rainfed lowland

Rainfed highland

MV Adoption (%) Dry season Wet season

99 96

96

100

67 98

89 94

Yield of MVs (ton/ha) Dry season 5.49 (176) 4.63 (48) 3.03 (50) 3.27 (16) Wet season 4.12 (181) 4.09 (48) 1.90 (62) 3.46 (35)

Yield of TVs (ton/ha) Dry season 3.96 (7) n.a. c -- b -- b Wet season -- b n.a. c 2.10 (31) 3.52 (3)

Total fertilizer cost (million VN dong per ha) Dry season Wet season

1.12 (182) 1.03 (181)

1.98 (48) 1.66 (48)

1.28 (51) 0.73 (78)

1.12 (12) 0.73 (35)

Fertilizer in Active Ingredients (Kg/ha)

Dry season 193.7 189.0 125.1 32.3 Wet season 168.4 157.1 125.3 127.1

a Numbers in parentheses are the number of observations. b Numbers of observations are too few (i.e., one or two). c Not applicable.

Estimation of MV Adoption, Fertilizer Application and Yield Function

MV Adoption function- Tobit model (Table 8)

- Dependent Var: Ratio of areas planted to MVs to total rice planted area

- Exp.Variables: IRG dummy, Regional dummies,

Total farm size, Age, Schooling,Family worker, gender of HH heads, dry season dummy .

Results of Adoption Function of MVs

IRG dummy : highly significant particularly for the South VN where irrigation is needed and drainage in dry season and drainage is needed during flooding time in MRD

Three regional dummies : highly significant in North, lower in Outer MRD: MV adoption is high in areas with irrigation and favorable environment.

Paddy area, number of worker, female head dummy are sig.

Environmental factors largely determine the adoption of MVs in 1990s

Fertilizer applicationFertilizer application function whole reigion, North and South

- IRG dummy and two northern region dummy are positive - Outer Mekong Delta dummy :neg. significant due to salinity

and fooding - NMH, RRD dummies were highly sig. Partly due to

restoration of soil fertility brought about by flooding in MRD - Age of HH heads : sig positive –Farmers’ experiences is a

crucial role in Fer. application - Schooling is non sig. : Farmer experiences in rice production

plays a crucial role than schooling

Determinant of rice yield Yield function for whole region, North and South (Table 10)

- IRG dummy positive significant

-The three regional dummies have neg. significant coefficients (equation 1) due to the higher yield in MRD with availability of irrigation water and effective water control

- Total paddy areas is insignificant in equation 1, neg. significant in North, weakly sig. positive in South: Farm size should not effect resource allocation and yields.

- Age: neg. effect-

Concluding RemarksGreen Revolution began in favorable areas and spread to less favorable areas over timeIn VN, Green Revolution started in the late 1970s (whole the country) after the war when the MV2 with resistant to pest and diseases were already availableGreen Revolution has been sustained up to the end of 1990sNational agriculture research system played a criticaly important role in developing location -specific appropriate technologies

Remaining issues

There is needed to analyze the origin and timing of various MVs application

To assess the effects of MV cum irrigation technologies on total factor productivity

Thank you