transformational adaptation - mark howden, csiro

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Transformational adaptation Mark Howden, Snow Barlow, Sarah Park, Usay Nidumolu and Lauren Rickards Presentation to the CCRSPI Conference, Melbourne, February 2011, Copyright CSIRO

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Page 1: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

Transformational adaptation

Mark Howden, Snow Barlow, Sarah Park, Usay Nidumolu and Lauren RickardsPresentation to the CCRSPI Conference, Melbourne, February 2011, Copyright CSIRO

Page 2: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Transformational advertising associates product usage with certain feelings, images, or meanings that then transform the experience of using the product

Transformation, transformation….

Page 3: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Transformational leadership - e.g. aims to move the staff member beyond their own self interests toward those of the organization

• Transformation in political dialogues – e.g. to distance the speaker from a particular position or situation

• Transformational policy – e.g. attempts at systemic, sweeping change

• Transformational technologies – e.g. internet• Transformational science – e.g. re-branding of old

work so as to keep the publication record going• Transformational adaptation in agriculture …

Transformation everywhere ….

Page 4: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

Different degrees of adaptation

Varieties, planting times, spacing

Stubble, water, nutrient and canopy management etc

Production chain approaches

Climate change-ready germplasm

Diversification and risk management

Transformation from landuse or distribution change

New products such as ecosystem services

Climate change

Ben

efit

fro

m

adap

tati

on

Incr

easi

ng c

ompl

exity

,

cost

and

risk

(Howden et al. 2010)

Page 5: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Suggest let’s not get hung up on precise definitions

– e.g. timescales

• An enterprise manager making decisions is trying to make the ones that best meet with their values and needs– how scientists define the decision is not

important to them

Transformation definitions

Page 6: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Sheep to beef change-over in central Qld in the 1800’s (McKeon et al. 1990)

• Goyders Line in 1800’s (Meinig 1962)• Irrigated industries• Cropping on heavy soils in northern Australia• Dairy industry restructure (Edwards 2003)• Eucalyptus globulus in western Victoria• ….

• Transformative adaptation to climate change

Transformation in agriculture is not new …

Page 7: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Brown Bros buy up in Tasmania

Wine industry

Page 8: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

Rice industry

Laurie Arthur to present on this

Page 9: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

Peanut Company of Australia

Page 10: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

‘High rainfall zone’ cropping

An extra 52000ha cropped: Nidumolu (2010)

Page 11: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Not in the business of promoting transformation nor predicting it

– risks of normative views or top-down decisions– reduction in diversity which may increase risk– flawed assumptions about what drives decisions

– unable to capture serendipity and contingency • Supporting effective decisions by decision-

makers, not making these decisions ourselves• Should learn from the failures of DSS in terms of

incremental and systems management and not repeat them for transformation

The role of science

Page 12: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Understanding the transformational process via longitudinal case-studies

– What drives it ?– What are barriers and facilitating factors ?– What information is used ?– How do the transformers feel afterwards ?– How do the people and communities ‘left behind’

feel ? – What would they do differently ?– What is needed to help ?

• Sarah Park will present on this

Climate Adaptation Flagship transformation project

Page 13: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Predictive research on the options for transformation

• Katherine (NT) peanut example– helping design new, sustainable farming systems– evaluation of yields, C and N cycling and losses,

water resources, climate change effects, pests and pathogens, GHG emissions

• Peter Thorburn will present on this

Climate Adaptation Flagship transformation projects

Page 14: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Roslyn Prinsley will present on this

Exploration of new rural industries

Page 15: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Establish public/private good rationale • Audit and adjust institutional arrangements so they

don’t unnecessarily limit innovation• Establish policies that address potential maladaptation

as part of normal process (e.g. food quality, NRM impacts, GHG emissions etc)

• Provision of appropriate and accessible information• R&D that expands the options available and their

consequences• Communicating successes: ‘The Transformers’ akin to

the MCVP ‘Climate Champions’

The potential role of government

Page 16: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

• Transformational change – thought of as failure and undertaken in response to threat (Chris Sounness)

• Our experience is different – high profile (often lauded) and taken in response to opportunity

• Our hypothesis is that by emphasising the human potential for creativity, proactive transformational adaptation offers a welcome sense of possibility and control (Anderson 2010; Rickards 2010)

Different viewpoints

Page 17: Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO

Thank you

Climate Adaptation FlagshipDr Mark HowdenTheme Leader

Phone: +61 2 6242 1679Email: [email protected]

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au

Website: www.csiro.au/org/ClimateAdaptationFlagship