transforming maintenance with predictive analytics · transforming maintenance with predictive...
TRANSCRIPT
Formerly SPSS Ireland
Predictive Maintenance
Transforming Maintenance with
Predictive Analytics
Fixed Before It’s
Broken!
Today’s Topics and Speakers
2
Pierre Baviera
CEO for Presidion
Alan McMahon
Senior Analytics Consultant
linkedin.com/in/pierrebaviera
linkedin.com/in/alanpmcmahon
How Predictive Maintenance is a proven
capability that leaders have already
embraced to deliver significant RoI
How does Predictive Maintenance work?
‘I’ll have what she’s having’ – How Predictive Maintenance
borrows from data rich industries
How to succeed with
Predictive Maintenance.
Today’s topics
How to succeed with Predictive
Maintenance.
‘I’ll have what she’s having’ – How Predictive Maintenance
borrows from data rich industries
How does Predictive Maintenance work?
How Predictive Maintenance is a proven
capability that leaders have already embraced
to deliver significant RoI
3
INDUSTRY 4.0
4
Internet of Things ‘Cheap and Easy Sensoring’
Quality and Regulations ‘Ever increasing consumer expectations –
mass personalisation’
Use of Unstructured Data ‘data format is unimportant’
Predictive Maintenance Where Industry 4.0 Leaders are going
Predictive Maintenance The manufacturing world is going through a ‘digital revolution’
Pressure on Margins ‘Sweat the assets’
Industry Research Industries using Predictive Maintenance
Source: Frost & Sullivan 2015
Life Sciences (Pharma, Medical and Bio
Tech)
Automotive and
Aerospace
Pulp and Paper
Power Generation
Mining
Oil and Gas
Food and Beverage
Chemical Others (industrial equipment, hi-
tech and general manufacturing)
IT Spend as a Percent of Vertical Revenue
Big
Data
an
d A
na
lyti
cs
Ma
nu
fac
turi
ng
Op
po
rtu
nit
y
( B
ase
d o
n v
olu
me
an
d a
pp
lica
tions)
0% 1.5% 3.0%
LOW
HIGH
5
Industry Research How are they using Predictive Maintenance applications
Opportunity for Analytics at a Production Line Level
Opportunity for Analytics at a Plant Level
En
terp
ris
e/E
nd
Use
r
Pe
ne
trati
on
Le
ve
l
En
terp
ris
e/E
nd
Use
r
Pe
ne
trati
on
Le
ve
l
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
HIGH
System Downtime
Asset Performance
Quality Assurance
Asset Utilization
Asset Availability
Resource Allocation
Material Wastage
HIGH
HIGH
Financial Analysis
Demand and Supply Forecasting
Product Lifecycle Management
Enterprise Visibility
Operational Downtime
Inventory Management
Production Line Level
Plant Level
6
Source: Frost & Sullivan 2015
Source: Frost & Sullivan 2015
7
Source: Roland Berger 2014
2
75% Reduction in breakdown
4 More data = More accuracy = More value
1 $18 /hp p.a.
$9 /hp p.a
$13 /hp p.a.
3
15% Time spent on Predictive Maintenance only
85%
15%
Reactive a
nd
Pre
ve
ntive
Predictive Maintenance Transforming of Maintenance Business Model
Government
Predictive
Maintenance
& Quality
Automotive
Travel & Transportation Electronics
Chemical & Petroleum
Mining & Construction
Aerospace & Defense
$75k
80%
$10M 98%
<1%
$1B $100k
5%
Energy & Utilities
Savings in capital plan expenditures
Level of accuracy predicting alarms
Reduction in equipment failure probability
Reduction in scrap rate in 12 weeks
Reduction in annual total warranty costs
Savings per oil platform
Reduction in aircraft-on-ground events
Reduction in fuel costs per turbine
Predictive Maintenance Various industries are realising significant value
8
Today’s topics
How to succeed with Predictive
Maintenance.
‘I’ll have what she’s having’ – How Predictive Maintenance
borrows from data rich industries
How does Predictive Maintenance work?
How Predictive Maintenance is a proven
capability that leaders have already embraced
to deliver significant RoI
9
Presidion A Pentagon of Principles
10
Don’t ignore your ‘gut’, just
make sure to test it
2
Analytics
helps to simplify not to over-complicate
3
Numerous Incremental Projects
= Radical overall benefit
4
Zero the
distance Between information and action
5 Information
Insight
Decision
Action
ANALYTICS IS
AWESOME (but show me the money!)
1
©Copyright Presidion 2016
Analysis & Monitoring
Predictive Analytics
Prescriptive Analytics
Reporting
What happened?
Why did it happen?
What will happen?
What should I do
next?
The right solution for the right business problem?
11
Analysis & Monitoring
Predictive Analytics
Prescriptive Analytics
Reporting
What happened?
Why did it happen?
What will happen?
What should I do
next?
The right solution for the right business problem?
12
Analysis & Monitoring
Predictive Analytics
Prescriptive Analytics
Reporting
What happened?
Why did it happen?
What will happen?
What should I do
next?
The right solution for the right business problem?
13
Predictive Maintenance What does it mean?
14 Manufacturing
Finding patterns in maintenance operations that could point to opportunities for
improvements
Identifying assets at risk of failure even when they have no previous failure history
Unearthing characteristics that lead to an increased frequency of failures
ASSETS
MAINTENANCE LOGS SENSORING
15
ASSETS
MAINTENANCE LOGS SENSORING
Predictive Maintenance is about
understanding the
patterns in data to determine the
areas of greatest risk and
directing resources before risk
becomes reality.
» Increase asset reliability and lifecycle
» Reduce interruptions in production/service
» Optimize resources scheduling and allocation
» Improve capital planning and financial
positioning
» Increase warranty recoveries and after-sales
support/customer satisfactions
Predictive Maintenance What does it mean?
16
ASSETS
SENSORING
MAINTENANCE LOGS
EXTERNAL INFORMATION
INTEGRATE RESULTS
ASSET HEALTH
Predictive Maintenance How does it work?
STATISTICAL MODELS
What if I could tell you that a specific
asset is 90% likely to fail within one
week for Reasons A, B and C?
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bu
sin
ess
Val
ue
Ad
dit
ion
Data Reporting Data Monitoring
Data Analysis, Mining and Evaluation
Predictive Analytics
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
Maintenance Types
17
Evolution of Analytics in the Maintenance
Domain for Manufacturing
Reactive
Maintenance
Planned
Maintenance
Condition Based
Maintenance
PHASE 3 Predictive
Maintenance
PHASE 4
Predictive Maintenance What does it look like?
18
Predictive Maintenance What does it look like?
19
Predictive Maintenance What does it look like?
20
Predictive Maintenance What does it look like?
21
Predictive Maintenance What does it look like?
22
Today’s topics
How to succeed with Predictive
Maintenance.
‘I’ll have what she’s having’ – How Predictive Maintenance
borrows from data rich industries
How does Predictive Maintenance work?
How Predictive Maintenance is a proven
capability that leaders have already embraced
to deliver significant RoI
23
Predictive Maintenance Nothing New?
24
STATISTICAL MODELS
Asset Lifetime Estimated time to asset failure or maintenance
What is the expected time for
survival during treatment?
SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
Predictive Maintenance Nothing New?
25
STATISTICAL MODELS
Sensor Anomalies Highlight unusual sensor activity leading to or
indicating sub-optimal asset performance
ANOMALY DETECTION
Which claims appear fraudulent as they have a claim value vastly
different than expected?
Predictive Maintenance Nothing New?
26
STATISTICAL MODELS
Maintenance Insights Uncovered additional details added to
maintenance logs
What are the key topics raised and customer sentiments expressed for
call centre wrap notes?
TEXT MINING
Predictive Maintenance Nothing New?
27
Event Associations What log events occur together leading to
maintenance or failures
MACHINE LEARNING
Root Cause Analysis Key characteristics and factors leading to asset
failure or maintenance
STATISTICAL MODELS
28
UNDERSTANDING
Asset Data: Age, Material, Warranty
Environment Data: Weather, Location
Operations Data: Sensors, Temperature, Energy
Consumption
Interactions Data: Maintenance, Failure Logs
A
O
E
I
U
Predictive Maintenance Nothing New?
WHAT INFORMATION DO MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES USE FOR PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE?
Start where you can, with what you have. Expand Incrementally overtime...
Today’s topics
How to succeed with Predictive
Maintenance.
‘I’ll have what she’s having’ – How Predictive Maintenance
borrows from data rich industries
How does Predictive Maintenance work?
How Predictive Maintenance is a proven
capability that leaders have already embraced
to deliver significant RoI
29
30
What issues have the
highest impact on my business?
Do I have enough data and in the right
formats?
Can I execute and
operationalize results?
Predictive Maintenance Business Value Assessments
Which areas are costing me the most downtime/ maintenance costs?
31
What issues have the
highest impact on my business?
Do I have enough data and in the right
formats?
Can I execute and
operationalize results?
Predictive Maintenance Key tenets of success
32
Predictive Maintenance Data Readiness Assessments
Is my data good enough for Predictive Maintenance?
It is most likely good
enough to start
33
What issues have the
highest impact on my business?
Do I have enough data and in the right
formats?
Can I execute and
operationalize results?
Predictive Maintenance Organisational Readiness Assessments
When do I need results and in what
format?
34
What issues have the
highest impact on my business?
Do I have enough data and in the right
formats?
Can I execute and
operationalize results?
Lack of Focus
Low Adoption Poor Results
ACTIONABLE
INSIGHTS
Predictive Maintenance Key tenets of success
35
Business Domain Expertise
Data and Analytics Specialist
End User and Change Management
Predictive Maintenance Key tenets of success
Predictive Maintenance What does it look like?
36
Potential range of impact by employing Predictive
Maintenance
expense potential improvements*
annual cost of unplanned
downtime reduce by 60% to 90%
excess capacity required to
compensate for unplanned
downtime
reduce by up to 90%
scrap or re-work reduce by up to 50%
asset useful life extend life by 5% to 15%
* Based on Nucleus Research analysis 37
End to End Advanced Analytics Framework Approach
Learn & discover how
Advanced Analytics can transform your organisation
Prepare yourself for success in Advanced Analytics
Improve business
performance
Sustain improved
performance
Questions and Answers
39
Data House
79 Old Kilmainham Road
Kilmainham
Dublin 8, Ireland
TELEPHONE
+353 (0) 1 456 7896 EMAIL
www.presidion.com
Formerly SPSS Ireland
Thank you for attending
Follow Us and check out our Blog
www.presidion.com
[email protected] +44 (0)208 757 8820 (UK) +353 (0)1 415 0234 (Ireland)