Transgenic Fish and Aquatic Biodiversity: Modeling Risks

  Bill Muir, Ph.D.

Purdue University

Type of Hazard (or Lack of)

Dependent on Effect of Transgene on Fitness Components

Invasion Extinction

No Risk

0.850.870.890.910.930.940.960.981.00Daily viability of adult transgenics

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ma t

ing

adva

ntag

e o f

tra

n sg e

n ic

mal

es

Invasion Risk

Extinction Risk

NoRisk

Hazards Associated with Negative Interaction of Transgene onof Adult Viability and Mating Success

TransgenePurged by Natural Selection

TransgeneIncreasedby Natural Selection

Population Purged by Natural Selection (Trojan Gene)

0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00Daily viability of adult transgenics

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8F

ert i l

i ty o

f t r

ansg

enic

mal

es

Extinction Risk

Invasion Risk

NoRisk

Hazards Associated with Negative Interaction of Transgene on Adult Viability and Male Fertility

TransgenePurged by Natural Selection

TransgeneIncreasedby Natural Selection

Population Purged by Natural Selection (Trojan Gene)

Hazards Associated With Negative Interaction of Adult Viability, Fertility, and Mating Success

TransgenePurged by Natural Selection

TransgeneIncreasedby Natural Selection

Population Purged by Natural Selection (Trojan Gene)

0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00Daily viability of adult transgenics

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Fer

tili ty

of t

ran s

g en i

c m

ales

Four-foldMatingAdvantage ofTransgenicMales

NoRisk

Extinction Risk

Invasion Risk

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