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Transit-Orientated-Development and the 24-Hour City
A/Professor François Viruly University of Cape Town
10 May 2018 WCPDF
STEEP: The Factors Disrupting the Property Market
SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC POLITICAL
Urbanisation Internet of Things Smart Buildings Digitization Grass- Routes
Politics
Middle-Class Big Data Sustainability Black Middle-Class Decline Local Gov
Demographics TOD Construction Informality Smart Cities
Source: Eigene Darstellung; nach Rachel Botsman, 2014
Accumulated in
nearly a century
610 000 Rooms in 88 Countries
Old Model:
Asset-intensive
Accumulated in 4 years
650 000 Rooms in 192 Countries
New Model:
Information-intensive Lausberg
PROPTECH: Big Data and Property
PROPTECH FINTECH
Proptech (created within and for the property sector) is endogenous:
fintech, virtual reality, blockchains, artificial intelligence, and smart sensors
SMART
REAL
ESTATE
SHARED
ECONOMY
REAL
ESTATE
FINTECH
Previous Cycles in South Africa: 1960-2017 “Creative Destruction and Structural Changes”
19
73
19
83
20
06
Real Economic Growth : GDP
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
y-o-y % change
BER forecast
Source: StatsSA
SAPOA
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Johannesburg Decentralised Durban DecentralisedCape Town Decentralised Pretoria Decentralised
Decentralised A & B Office Vacancies
Cape Town Take-up Rates
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SQM
CBD Century City V& A Claremont Pinelands Rondebosch Bellville
SAPOA
Mortgage Advance % change over 12 months
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%
Commercial Property
Total Mortgage Advance
Residential Property
SARB
Survey of Investment Opportunities (ULI)
Ranking Top 5 Ranking Bottom 5
1 Logistics 19 Science Parks
2 Self Storage 20 Retail Parks
3 Private Res
21 Business Parks
4 Student Housing
22 Suburban Offices
5 Retirement Housing
23 Out of Town Shopping
ULI 2018 / Emerging Trends in Real Estate
Market Structures-Portfolio Investment
SAPIX/IPD
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
South Africa
UK
Portugal
Spain
Canada
Ireland
Norway
Netherlands
France
Germany
Denmark
Sweden
Residential Office Retail Industrial Other
The Potential Benefits of TODs Do we expect too much with this tool ?
Successful TOD
Ecological
Potential to promote
developments
Easy access to transit limits
Cost Reduction
Diverse mix of use in
commercial developments
Access to quality public
space
Congestion reduction
Safe environment
Optimising TOD Externalities and Realizing the Benefits (the externalities)
OPTIMISING TOD
EXTERNALITIES
Focus on the correct level of
scale
Understand Markets
- Segments
-Structure of Markets
-Costs
Understand the Players
Influence
Feasibilities
Avoid Distorting the Market
Improving and Managing the Intensity of Use of the Built Environment
Connecting the Built Environment 24 Hours a Day
Source: City of Cape Town
The Night-Time Economy
• The focus has been on spatial attributes and little is being said about the relationship between time and the built environment
• City policies at present says very little about the night time economy . It is undervalued , under researched and unrecognised
• Not just focused on the leisure and alcohol sector – it has positive implications for employment (creative industries) and tourism
• In the new Economy many don’t work Standard hours.
• Use the night time economy to be more efficient and inclusionary - education and the delivery of social services .
• It improves inclusivity , diversity and livability . • A number of cities now have night time mayors
Photos LViruly
TOWN
PLANNING
SERVICES
BUILDING
OCCUPATION
Property Rights
Tenure
Community
Rights/ Entitlement
The Property Market Delivers one way or another 24 hours a day