transition scenarios: developing a roadmap for climate ... · 4. efficient coal power plants 5. gas...

Transition Scenarios:Developing a Roadmap for Climate Change and

Northeast Ohio

Buildings Work GroupOctober 16, 2008

© 2008 GreenCityBlueLake Institute

Buildings Work Group – October 16, 2008

Agenda

Adjourn10:00

Next Steps, Sub Group Structures9:45 – 10:00 (15 min)

Scenarios for Buildings in Northeast Ohio9:15 – 9:45 (30 min)

Review Existing Initiatives – local / national8:50 – 9:15 (25 min)Overview of Northeast Ohio Emissions8:30 – 8:50 (20 min)Introduction, Objectives and Approach8:10 – 8:30 (20 min)Opening Remarks8:00 – 8:10 (10 min)ActivityTime



Program Overview

Climate Change Action Plan for Northeast Ohio

1. Carbon footprint

2. Transition plans

3. Outreach to reduce emissions

Cleveland Carbon Fund

7-county region CMNH

Power sector

Transportation sector

Building sector

Goal: Carbon-neutral

region

Cities, businesses, universities, hospitals,

other nonprofits



Climate Change Project Timeline20092008

May JunAprMarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJun

Transportation Plan

Buildings Plan

Energy Plan

Carbon Footprint

DeliverableWorkgroup Meeting

Outreach Activities



Workgroup Objectives

Understand building sector’s contribution to Northeast Ohio’s carbon footprint

Explore solutions, changes and investments needed to reduce the carbon footprint from buildings over coming decades

Hopeful, yet realistic discussion

Begin framework for an action plan focusing on carbon reductions

Determine next steps



IntroductionWhat today is.

An opportunity to learn about existing projections and challenges for the Northeast Ohio region in regards to climate change and building issues.

An opportunity to ask questions and challenge future scenarios on what our region will need to look like to be both environmentally and economically healthy.

An opportunity to contribute your knowledge so this project has the best possible information.

What it isn’t.

Is NOT a discussion on whether global warming is occurring or whether climate change is real.



CO2 Stabilization Triangle

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CO2 Stabilization “Wedges”

Examples of Wedges:1. Efficient vehicles2. Reduced use of vehicles3. Efficient buildings4. Efficient coal power plants5. Gas instead of coal power plants6. Capture CO2 at baseloadpower plant7. Nuclear power for coal power8. Wind power for coal power9. PV power for coal power10. Capture CO2 at H2 plant11. Capture CO2 at coal-to-synfuels plant12. Wind H2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline in hybrid car

Source: Princeton Stabilization Wedges, http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/stabwedge.htm

Examples of Wedges:1. Efficient vehicles2. Reduced use of vehicles3. Efficient buildings4. Efficient coal power plants5. Gas instead of coal power plants6. Capture CO2 at baseloadpower plant7. Nuclear power for coal power8. Wind power for coal power9. PV power for coal power10. Capture CO2 at H2 plant11. Capture CO2 at coal-to-synfuels plant12. Wind H2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline in hybrid car



McKinsey Abatement Curve

Source: Creyts, et. al., “Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?”McKinsey Report, December 2007, available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/Greenhouse_Gas_Emissions_Executive_Summary.pdf



Audience Response Questions

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8. Other4. Lorain County

7. Summit County3. Lake County

6. Portage County2. Geauga County

5. Medina County1. Cuyahoga

Where are you from?

9. Other4. Architect

5. Engineer

8. Press3. Property Mgmt.

7. College/University2. Developer

6. Public Sector1. Builder

What sector do you represent?




4. Started learning this stuff way too late

2. Advanced knowledge

3. Just started but learning fast

1. Expert

Rate your experience and confidence with energy and sustainability issues.

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Agenda

Adjourn10:00






What is a Carbon Footprint? Measure of the carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) released

as a result of activities

Calculated from energy (fuel) used during activities and from land use changes and agricultural activities

When differences appear in carbon footprints for the same region – and they can be large differences – it is usually related to whether or not land use, forestry and agricultural activities are included in the calculation. These categories can make up 1/3 of the total CO2emissions.

Include energy consumed in buildings, industrial processes, and transportation sector (electricity, natural gas, coal, petroleum, etc.)



Collateral Benefits

Climate Change is the big issue, but sustainable development practices can help achieve other goals related to:

Air emissions

Stormwater runoff

Materials conservation

Land and habitat conservation

Save $

Economic and community development



U.S. Carbon Emissions –7 Billion Tons CO2e

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USA: 7 billion tons of CO2 equivalents per year (excluding land use and forestry changes)



PerspectiveThe U.S. emits as much CO2 as Brazil, U.K., India, Russia, Canada, and South Korea combined – and 20% of the world’s total CO2 emissions.



Midwest Emissions Overview

1. Charting the Midwest: An Inventory and Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in America’s Heartland, World Resources Institute, October 2007, p.2.

“The Midwest is responsible for 5 percent of global GHGs – a contribution larger than all countries, except China, Russia, and India”1

Ohio: 280 – 300 Million Tons of CO2 e emissions



Cuyahoga County:4th Largest CO2 Emitting County in US

Source: http://www.purdue.edu/eas/carbon/vulcan/images/county.total.Cemit.SCnote.jpg



How Did We Calculate CO2 Emissions for 7 County Region?Gathered energy consumption data from 7 county region, using direct

contacts and annual reports filed with state and federal government Electricity Natural Gas Diesel Gasoline Heating Oil

Utilized ICLEI Software for Calculations ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability (originally known as “International Council for

Local Environmental Initiatives”) is an international association of local governments and national and regional local government organizations that have made a commitment to sustainable development. http://www.iclei.org

Current estimate for Northeast Ohio does not include emissions from agricultural activities or land use changes

Ongoing process, data will be refined as better and more complete data is available



Overview of Northeast Ohio CO2Equivalent Emissions

Waste, 376,232, 1%

Transportation, 14,836,026, 33%

Buildings, 17,376,994, 39%

Industrial, 12,289,880, 27%

7 County Annual Emissions of CO2 Equivalents (2005, tons)Total Emissions: 44,126,667 CO2eqt

Source: GreenCityBlueLake Institute, ICLEI Clean Air and Climate Protection Software – Data from Oct 7, 2008. Waste data from 2006. Excludes land use changes and agricultural emissions.

Residential, 10,839,235, 24%Commercial,

6,537,759, 15%



Residential Emissions by Source

Natural Gas, 7,003,731, 64% Electricity,

3,544,015, 33%

Home Heat Fuels, 291,488, 3%

7 County Residential Annual Emissions of CO2 Equivalents (2005, tons)Total Residential Emissions: 10,839,235 CO2eqt (24% of total Region)

Commercial, 6,537,759, 15%

Residential, 10,839,235, 24%

Source: GreenCityBlueLake Institute, ICLEI Clean Air and ClimateProtection Software – Data from Oct 7, 2008. Waste data from 2006. Excludes land use changes and agricultural emissions.



Fuel Use, 298,990, 5%

Natural Gas, 3,177,623, 48%

Electricity, 3,061,146, 47%

Commercial Emissions by Source

7 County Commercial Annual Emissions of CO2 Equivalents (2005, tons)Total Commercial Emissions: 6,537,759 CO2eqt (15% of Region Total)

Residential, 10,839,235, 24%

Commercial, 6,537,759, 15%

Source: GreenCityBlueLake Institute, ICLEI Clean Air and ClimateProtection Software – Data from Oct 7, 2008. Waste data from 2006. Excludes land use changes and agricultural emissions.



U.S. Energy Use

INDUSTRY25%

TRANSPORTATION27%

BUILDINGS48%

Source: Energy Information Administration Statistics (Architecture 2030)




2. No1. Yes

Have you calculated a carbon footprint for your business?

Yes No

66%

34%

2. No1. Yes

Have you calculated a carbon footprint for your home?

Yes No

75%

25%



Yes No

68%

32%

2. No1. Yes

Have you or your organization ever bought a carbon offset?




Agenda

Adjourn10:00






Market Size



Existing Initiatives• Architecture 2030 Blueprint• AIA Chicago Carbon Reduction Strategies Matrix• Energy Star Program• Residential Energy Standards Network (RESNET)• LEED• McKinsey – Confronting Climate Change• Presidential Climate Action Plan – Section 6, Low Carbon Buildings• BOMA Energy Efficiency Program (BEEP)• Building / Energy Codes• State Legislation• Department of Energy Building America Program• Tax Incentives (ASE.org, $500 tax credit for EE upgrades – part of bailout)• Siemens partnering w/ Cuyahoga County• EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Initiative• Reporting Initiatives

– Federal Reporting programs (Title IV, Climate Leaders)– State Programs (California, The Climate Registry, RGGI)– Corporate Programs (WRI/WBCSD)– Industry Protocols (API Compendium, CSI Protocol, International Aluminum Institute)



Architecture 2030 Blueprint

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Architecture 2030 Blueprint

Source: http://architecture2030.org/



AIA-Chicago Carbon Reduction Matrix

Source: http://www.aiachicago.org/cote.asp



Energy Star ProgramHomes are at least 15% more energy efficient than homes built to the 2004 International

Residential Code (IRC), and include additional energy-saving features that typically make them 20–30% more efficient than standard homes.

“Tried and True” approach. Utilize existing and proven technologies to achieve:

Effective Insulation High Performance Windows Building and Duct Sealing Efficient HVAC Systems Efficient Products Third Party Verification

(Builder Option Package – choose climate specific solutions)

Source: http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=new_homes.nh_features

Commercial and industrial facilities are scored on a 1-100 scale and those facilities that achieve a score of 75 or higher are eligible for the ENERGY STAR, indicating that they are among the top 25% of facilities in the country for energy performance.



$14 billion$5 billionNet Savings (USD)170 billion62 billionEnergy Saved (kWh)

Annual Results

3,200545Buildings Labeled30,0004,200Buildings Rated

Commercial Buildings

3,5001,600Home Builders725,00025,000New Homes Built

New Homes

90025Retailers (partners)68%40%Public Awareness

40,00011,000Product Models50+40Product Categories

2 billion +600 millionProducts Sold

Qualified Products

20062000IndicatorEnergy Star Program Key Indicators

Energy Star Program



Energy Star Homes by State (2006)

37%16275060839Texas

16%225953554Utah

71%2672218891Nevada

17%4826820New Hampshire

31%171135351New Jersey

13%199812569New York

13%275143462Ohio

23%71071606Connecticut

24%50151217Delaware

37%55972086Hawaii

57%102505866Iowa

17%10771418105California

24%2071501Vermont

36%5563320101Arizona

64%16121024Alaska

2006 Energy Star Market Penetration

2006 One-Unit Housing Permits

2006 Energy Star Qualified New Homes

State

Source: Energy Star Website



Energy Star Program

2007 Energy Star Homes by State

Source: http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?fuseaction=qhmi.showHomesMarketIndex

Over 120,000 new homes earned the ENERGY STAR in 2007.

This is equivalent to:Eliminating the emissions from 60,000 vehiclesSaving 355,680,000 lbs of coalPlanting 97,000 acres of treesSaving home owners $54 million on their utility bills



Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET)

• Resnet ratings provide a relative energy use using the HERS Index.

• Officially recognized by:– Mortgage industry for energy

performance– Certification of “white tags” for

investors– US EPA Energy Star Program– US Department of Energy Building

America Program

http://www.resnet.us/



Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET)

Approved by the RESNET Board of Directors. To be implemented as of July 1, 2006.

Status

HERS Index of 85 in climate zones 1–5HERS Index of 80 in climate zones 6–8

ENERGY STAR Requirement

Heating, cooling, water heating, lighting, appliances, and onsite power generation*

Energy Use Considered

Each 1% increase in energy efficiency corresponds to a 1-point decrease in HERS Index

Scale

2006 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC)

Reference Home Basis

Reference Home is assigned a HERS Index of 100, while a net zero energy home is assigned a HERS Index of 0

Reference Home Score

HERS Index



What is the LEED System?

LEADERSHIP inENERGY andENVIRONMENTALDESIGN

A leading-edge system for certifyingDESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, & OPERATIONSof the greenest buildings in the world

Scores are tallied for different aspects of efficiency and design in appropriate categories.

For instance, LEED assesses in detail:

1. Site Planning2. Water Management3. Energy Management4. Material Use5. Indoor

EnvironmentalAir Quality

6. Innovation &Design Process



LEED Certified Projects in 7 County Area (14 total)

Cuyahoga County (8)U.S. Courthouse (Certified)ideastream (Silver)Doty & Miller Architects (Gold)Oately Dist. Center (Certified)CWRU Village at 115 (Gold)Cleveland Foodbank (Certified)Key Bank Tiedman (Certified)CSU Rec Center (Certified)

Medina County (2)Giant Eagle #229 (Certified)Designer Showcases (Silver)

Lake County (0)None

Lorain County (1)Entrepreneurship Innovation Center –LCCC (Silver)

Summit County (2)Akron Zoological Park (Certified)Metroparks HQ (Platinum)*

Geauga County (0)None

Portage County (0)None

Other “green” projects:Adam Joseph Lewis Building – Oberlin

(before LEED)Cleveland Environmental Center – Cleveland

(seeking certification)



Presidential Climate Action Plan

“In a study commissioned by CPAC, analysts at the Alliance to Save Energy project that CO2 emissions from buildings will increase a staggering 86% from today’s levels if trends continue.”

“Recent studies of several states suggest that overall building energy efficiency could be improved by 10% to 30% in the next decade with technologies already known to be feasible and cost-effective.”

Report lays out 7 actions the next President should take around efficiency standards, mortgage interest deduction, extend tax incentives, zero energy buildings by 2030 through better quality and enforcement of building energy codes, home weatherization programs, use federal loan guarantees to support sustainability

Source: http://www.climateactionproject.com/



Residential Energy Code Adoption



Commercial Energy Code Adoption

• ASHRAE 90.1 (2004) requires occupancy sensor, intelligent scheduling or building management system for any new building over 5000 square feet or any significant renovation.

• Part of Ohio Building Code – Section 35• Should be caught in plan review process, but current enforcement is sporadic




2. No1. Yes

Have you been involved with a LEED project?

Yes No

19%

81%

2. No1. Yes

Do you think that energy efficiency creates market value in Northeast Ohio?

Yes No

3%

97%



2. No1. Yes

Have you been involved with an Energy Star project?


Yes No

47%

53%



Agenda

Adjourn10:00






How do we reduce CO2 emissions by 50%? 80%?

Industrial, 12,289,880, 27%

Buildings, 17,376,994, 39%


Waste, 376,232, 1%

Industrial, 6,100,000, 28%

Buildings, 8,500,000, 38%


Waste, 150,000, 1%

2008

44 MtCO2eq

2030

22 MtCO2eq

Industrial, 1,000,000, 22%

Buildings, 2,000,000, 43%


Waste, 150,000, 3%

2050

5 MtCO2eq

Policies

Behaviors / Actions

Assumptions

Policies

Behaviors / Actions

Assumptions

Other Inputs Other Inputs



Location. Location. Location.



Developed Land in Cuyahoga County (1948)

Population:1.4 million and Rising



Developed Land in Cuyahoga County (2002)

Population:1.4 million and Declining



Buildings and Other Structures

Strategies– Energy Efficiency

• Structural (size of buildings, location of buildings, efficiency of systems, construction, insulation, design, construction materials)

• Behavioral (activities within buildings, accepted temperature, accepted water usage, lighting sources)• Smart Metering (see 5/27/08 WSJ article on TX project to reduce peak demand)

– “Passive Survivability” – design and construction of structures that can function without heating or cooling systems, zero energy homes

– Rating Indexes – LEED for Homes, Energy Star, HERS– Urban core, Inner ring, suburbs, exurbs– Single family, multi family, office, mixed use, retail, industrial

Key Data– Building stock (type, size, location)– Building turnover (location, new construction, deconstruction)– Typical home/commercial/industrial consumption today, 20 years



Single Family Homes Scenario Example

Existing building stock (number of homes, types of construction,age)

Predicted building turnover (demolition) Predicted new construction (number of home, types of construction) Fuel Mix House size (square feet, people per house) Home weatherization programs (cost, energy savings, carbon

avoided – prioritization of project types, Cleveland Carbon Fund) Home efficiency programs (loans, grants for efficiency upgrades,

payback periods in $ and carbon avoided)

Energy use and carbon footprint of these scenarios



Northeast Ohio Residential Units

Fuel Source Housing UnitsUtility gas 939,391Bottled, tank or LP gas 22,241Electricity 119,907Fuel oil, kerosene, etc 26,882Coal, coke or wood 4,967Solar energy or other fuel 9,937No fuel used 4,037

7 County RegionYear Built Housing UnitsMarch 2000 - 2004 50,2951995 to March 2000 66,8741990 to 1994 55,6801980 to 1989 88,6871970 to 1979 164,7691960 to 1969 183,8051950 to 1959 229,3451940 to 1949 131,7181939 or earlier 281,456TOTAL 1,252,629

7 County Region Through March 2000Occupied housing units 1,127,402Vacant housing units 74,930

Total 1,202,332Owner occupied 774,099Renter occupied 353,303

Total 1,127,402



Buildings and Other Structures

• Activities: Heat, Air Conditioning, Water Heating, Electricity Use

• Inputs: Construction Materials, Insulation, Size, Design and Location

• Solutions: Energy Efficiency, Cogeneration units, Education and training



Discussion



How do we organize efforts?

Data gathering and validation

Residential buildings – New construction– Renovation

Commercial buildings– New Construction– Renovation

Policy Strategy Group



Agenda

Adjourn10:00






Next Steps

Do you understand the material? Is this an important initiative?

Who else needs to be involved? Who needs to participate in the process?

Are there sub work groups? What is the group structure?

Who are the conveners and participants?

When do we meet again? What are the deliverables?

transition scenarios: developing a roadmap for climate ... · 4. efficient coal power plants 5. gas...

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