Transport and Climate in the AmericasContribution to a cooler planet

Walter VergaraGlobal Expert Team on Adaptation

World BankJanuary 15, 2010

Global GHG emissions are on track to surpass worst case IPCC scenario

Fuente: M. Raupach et al., Global and Regional Drivers of accelerating CO2 Emissions, PNAS, Vol. 104, No. 24, June 12, 2007. 3

End of century temperatureanomaly up to 6Celcius

Table 1. The regional GHG picture; LAC has 8% and 7 % of global population and GDP respectively

Share of global emissions (%)

Observations

CO2 from fossil fuels 5 Reflects relative energy efficiency of the economy

Other GHG gases 15 Reflects GHG efficiency of industrial and agricultural activity

CO2 from land use change 31 Largely, share of global deforestation Source:estimated using data form the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 5.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2008). CO2 values are for the year 2004; other gases and land use change values are for the year 2000..

Climate Hotspot

Direct effect

Immediacy

Irreversibility Magnitude of Physical Impacts

Economic consequence

Coral Biome in the Caribbean

Bleaching and mass mortality of corals

Now Complete Total collapse of ecosystem and wide-ranging extinction of associated species.

Impacts on fisheries, tourism, increased vulnerability of coastal areas

Mountain ecosystems in the Andes

Warming Now Complete Disappearance of glaciers, drying up of mountain wetlands, extinction of cold-climate endemic species

Impacts on water and power supply, dislocation of current agriculture

Wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico

Subsidence and salinization; increased exposure to extreme weather

This century

Complete Disappearance of coastal wetlands, dislocation and extinction of local and migratory species

Impacts on coastal infrastructure, fisheries and agriculture

Amazon basin

Forest dieback

This century

Complete Drastic change to the ecosystem leading to potential savannah

Impacts on the global water circulation patterns, impacts on agriculture, water and power supply at a continental scale

Climate Hot-Spots in Latin America

Strategy on climate change challenges in Latin America

Adaptation Priority number one; Large costs imposed on global

community by emission of GHGs. Irreversible impacts and loss of environmental services require immediate action

Reduce carbon footprint of economic activities

Assist countries in the region to seek future growth along a low-carbon path, focused on power, transport and land use change

Institutional strengthening, support access to information and linking science to developmentseeking to link science and policy-making and empower the

region to play an active and influential role in the international climate agenda.

Ambitious adaptation program in the Americas

• Started with Board approval of Caribbean Planning for Adaptation in 1997.

• Ten adaptation dedicated projects in the portfolio

• Trends before variability• Eco-system approach• Adaptation without mitigation is a

losing proposition• Integration of the issue in sector

policies

Carbon Intensity excluding land use change and other gases (tCO2/PPP, GDP) by per capita Income, 2006

Evolution of Transport Contribution to CO2 Emissions between 1990 to 2004

Adapting transport• Share of emissions in LAC is 34% (500

MMT CO2 e) and growing the fastest of all sectors– Need to reduce its carbon footprint even if

the cost of reductions today is higher than for reductions in other sectors

– Part of a larger strategy seeking reductions in airborne toxics and thus health benefits for exposed populations

– Improvements in public space allocation

A Sokolow approach for transport

• What does it take to cut 60 million tons of CO2 from annual emissions by 2020– 200 BRTs (15 Km, 220,000 passengers day) with

30% hybrid articulated fleet would cut 20 MMT– Replacement of 50% of bus fleet with full electric

vehicles in countries with low carbon power sectors (Brazil , Colombia, Venezuela) would displace 15 MMT

– Modal shift (linked to urban planning) involving 20% displacement of cars toward public transport would displace 15 MMT

– Improvements in 50% of small vehicle fuel efficiency (hybridization of fleet) , 10 MMT

A Sokolow approach for transport

• What does it take to cut 100 million tons of CO2 from annual emissions by 2020– All previous actions plus: – Improvements in 50% of small vehicle fuel

efficiency (hybridization of fleet) , 10 MMT – Densification and improvements in urban

planning in large urban areas, tied to transport optimization, 20 MT

– Hybridization of freight fleets, 5 MT– Other measures, 15MT

Downpayment: Urban Transport Transformation Project

• The Project Development Objective is to contribute to the transformation of urban transport in Mexican cities toward a lower carbon growth path.

• This will be achieved by improving the quality of service provided by the urban transport systems in a cost efficient manner, and by deploying equipment, infrastructure, and operational strategies that reduce CO2 emissions. Achieving the objective will significantly reduce the overall transport sector carbon footprint and the emission of related air toxics.

•  

Downpayment on Sokolow: The Urban Transport Transformation project in Mexico

UTTP: Activities• Low carbon transport infrastructure:

– BRTS and other investments designed to abate the emissions from the sector.

– BRTS would be integrated to other modes of transport and promote modal shift and access by non motorized transport

– Urban light trains powered by zero carbon electricity

• Low carbon rolling stock– Fleet of articulated hybrid vehicles (35% of

total) and or other lequivalent low carbon vehicles

Goals• Displace about 2 MMT annual Co2 e

emissions for the Urban Transport Sector by 2017

• Build and operate about 18 BRTs• Have a fleet of 350 articulated hybrid

buses on operation• Scrap about 1000 old vehicles• Financing: US$2.2 billion, including

US$0.4 billion through the World Bank