transport model for scotland shs-based inputs and forecast trends shs user day david connolly and...
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Overview of Transport Model for ScotlandTRANSCRIPT
Transport Model for Scotland SHS-based inputs and forecast trends SHS User DayDavid Connolly and Lucy Barker| November 2007
Overview of Presentation
Overview of the use of SHS in the Transport Model for Scotland
General Trends in Travel Behaviour (SHS + TMfS)
Impact of Age and the Ageing Population on Travel Behaviour
Overview of Transport Model for Scotland
Transport Model for Scotland
Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) is: A multi-modal transport and land-use model Car, goods vehicles, bus & rail Week-day travel (AM peak, Inter-peak and PM
peak) covers all of mainland Scotland 2005 Base Year plus ability to forecast 2007,
2012, 2017, 2022, … Web-site: www.tmfs.org.uk
SHS Data in Transport Model for Scotland
The calibration of TMfS has used the following SHS data Travel Diary
- trip rates by car ownership- trip length distributions by journey purpose- mode choice proportions by car ownership- trip rates by mode, age and gender- Time of day profiles (for annualisation) etc
Household Data Household car ownership by urban/rural
classification Splitting Census data by SHS household types and
worker-type (manual/semi-skilled/skilled)(We have also used 2001 Census Travel to Work Data and GROS National Demographic Projections)
General Demographics
Scottish Demographics - Population and Households (Source: TELMoS)
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
PopulationHouseholds
+ 1.1 %
+ 8.5 %
Scottish Demographics – Ageing population (Source: TELMoS)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
ChildrenRetired
- 13 %
+ 24 %
Impacts of Age on Transport Behaviour
Person Trips per Day by Mode (Source: SHS)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.816
-19
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80+
Age
Pers
on T
rips
per D
ay
Car Driver
CarPassenger
PublicTransport
Walk orCycle
Other
Car Driving Trip Rates by Age and Journey Purpose (Source: SHS)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
16-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80+
Age
Car D
rivin
g Tr
ips
per D
ay
Commuting
Shopping
Education
Business
Other
Total
Car Driving Trip Rates by Age and Gender (Source: SHS)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.816
-19
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80+
Age
Car D
river
Trip
s pe
r Day
MaleFemale.
Car Driving Distance by Age & Gender (Source: SHS)
0
5
10
15
20
2516
-19
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80+
Age
Car D
river
Km
per
Adu
lt
MaleFemale.
Car Driving Distance per Trip (Source: SHS)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1216
-19
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80+
Age
Car D
river
Dist
ance
per
Trip
Bus Kms per Person (Source: SHS Data)
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Bus
Kms
per P
erso
n
Up to 60 yrs60+ yrs
Impacts of Household Structure on Travel Behaviour
Household Car Ownership by Household Demographics (Source: SHS)
72%58% 50%
20% 12%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1 Ad
ult
(pen
sione
r)
1 Ad
ult
(with
child
ren)
1 Ad
ult (
noch
ildre
n)
>=2
Adul
ts(n
och
ildre
n)
>=2
Adul
ts(w
ithch
ildre
n) Tota
l
Household Type
% N
o Ca
r Ava
ilabl
e
Car Trip Rates by Household Type (Source: SHS)
1.05
1.95
1.21
0.05
1.80
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0 Car 1 Car & 1Adult
1 Car & 2+Adults
2+ Cars Total
Car D
river
Trip
s pe
r Adu
lt
Car Kms by Household Type (Source: SHS)
11
23
12
1
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 Car 1 Car & 1 Adult 1 Car & 2+Adults
2+ Cars Total
Car D
river
Km
per
Adu
lt
Transport Behaviour – Trends and Forecasts
Car ownership by population in a household (Source: TELMoS)
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Popu
latio
n wh
o liv
e in
a h
ouse
hold
No car1+ cars2+ cars
Car driver/vehicle trips per day
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.819
99
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Year
Vehi
cle tr
ips
per d
ay b
y ad
ult
SHSTMfS
Car/Vehicle Kms per Person
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1619
99
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Year
Vehi
cle k
m p
er a
dult
SHSTMfS
Time lost due to congestion (Source: TMfS)
00.020.040.060.08
0.10.120.140.160.18
0.2
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Dela
y [m
in]
AMIPPM
Emissions of pollutants from traffic(Source: TMfS)
0
20
40
60
80
100
12020
05
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Year
Pollu
tant
s
Carbon MonoxidePollutants [CO]Oxides of NitrogenPollutants [NOX]Particulate Pollutants[PM10]
CO2 emissions from traffic (Source: TMfS)
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
11220
05
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Year
Pollu
tant
s
Carbon Dioxide [CO2]
Conclusions
The ageing population will have significant impacts on travel behaviour
- Car use decreases sharply with age- Likely decrease in travel to education- SHS might also be used to detect impacts of the
National Concessionary Travel Scheme TMfS suggests growth in car ownership will outweigh
the decrease in car use due to the ageing population As a result, congestion will continue to grow steadily
over time Pollutants from traffic will decrease (due to fuel/engine
improvements) However, TMfS predicts CO2 emissions will grow
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Questions & Discussion