transport models as climate policy evaluation tools transport activity: mode matters national...
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© OECD/IEA, 2016
Transport Models as Climate Policy Evaluation Tools
COP 22, Marrakech, Morocco
12 November 2016
Jean-François Gagné
Energy Technology Policy Division Head
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA, 2016
IEA supports the low-carbon transition
IEA: the global energy authority Part of the OECD family
Founded in 1974 to co-ordinate a response to oil supply disruptions
2015: IEA Modernisation grounded on three main pillars
global energy security
energy cooperation and global dialogue
promoting an environmentally sustainable energy future
Build on a decade of analysis on what we need to do to keep temperature increase below 2°C
Now developing analysis on faster and deeper energy-sector decarbonisation
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Sizing the scale of the challenge…
The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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45
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Renewables 32%
Energy efficiency 32%
Fuel switching 10%
Nuclear 11%
CCS 15%2DS
4DS
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… and its solutions
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But the challenge increases to get from 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees
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Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS
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20
25
30
35
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2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Agriculture 2%
Buildings 8%
Industry 33%
Transport 24%
Other transformation 4%
Power 29%
Industry and transport account for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050.
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Today’s energy system paradigm is based on a unidirectional energy delivery philosophy
Centralised fuel production,power and storage
Systems thinking and integration
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A sustainable energy system is a smarter, multidirectional and integrated system that requires
long-term planning for services delivery
Centralised fuel production,power and storage
Renewable energy resources
EV
Co-generation
Smart energysystem control
Distributedenergy resources
Surplus heat
H vehicle2
Systems thinking and integration
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End-use sectors Service demands
Hybrid model
Industry
Long-term simulation
Buildings
Mobility Model (MoMo)
Transport
Primary energy Conversion sectors
Renewables
Fossil
Nuclear
Electricity T&D
Fuel conversion
Fuel/heat delivery ETP-TIMES (bottom-up optimisation)
Final energy
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas
Heat
etc. Passenger mobility Freight transport
…
Space heating Water heating
Lighting …
Material demands …
ETP model finds cost-effective investment and operation of energy technologies to meet energy demands from now to 2050
ETP modelling framework
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Non-urban - Well to Tank Non-urban - Tank to Wheel
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500
3 wheelers
Medium trucks
Light commercial
Rail
Shipping
Heavy trucks
Mt of CO2 equivalent
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500
2 & 3 wheelers
Cars
Buses andminibuses
Rail
Air
Mt of CO2 equivalent
Urban - Well to Tank Urban - Tank to Wheel
Passenger Freight
Well-to-wheels GHG emissions in 2015, by mode
Understanding transport impacts: Mode matters
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Transport is the least diversified energy demand sector
Solutions need to be adapted transportation modes
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Passenger transport activity: Mode matters
National passenger transport activity (pkm) in 2015, by mode
France
United Kingdom
EU Nordic
Canada
United States
Mexico
Brazil
Other Latin America
Other Africa
South Africa
Middle East
India
ASEAN
Australia andNew Zealand
Japan
Korea
China
Russia
Germany
Italy
2-wheelers
3-wheelers
Small and medium cars
Large cars
Minibuses
Buses
Rail
1 trllionpkm
3 trllionpkm
5.5 trllionpkm
ETP_2016_Figure_01.10
Air
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While activity is almost 50% higher in China than in the US…
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Passenger transport energy use: Mode matters
National passenger transport energy use in 2015, by fuel
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While China’s activity is almost 50% higher than in the US…
Its total energy use is only a bit more than half that of the US
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0
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12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2-e
q
OECD
2DS
4DS6DS
0
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4
6
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10
12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Non-OECD
6DS
4DS
2DS
Avoid/Shift Low-carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency
Avoid/Shift Low carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency
UrbanNon-urban
Need to decouple activity & emissions Avoid/shift, vehicle efficiency, low carbon fuels
GHG Emissions in the 2DS, 4DS, and 6DS – 2010 to 2050
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OECD transport emissions have peaked,
while Non-OECD transport emissions can be brought back to current levels in 2050
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Transport energy demand projections Policy and technology have great potential
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100 110
2DS 4DS 6DS 2DS 4DS 6DS
2015 2050 2015 2050
Urban Non-urban
EJ
WorldOther
Hydrogen
Natural gas
Electricity
Biofuels
Liquid fuels fromfossil energy
Global Energy for Transport in 2015 & in 2050 in the ETP Scenarios
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2DS sees a net global decline in transport energy demand, but not in all regions
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0
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4
6
8
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
We
ll to
wh
ee
l GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Gt
CO
₂)
Aviation reduction
Shipping reduction
Rail reduction
Trucks reduction
Buses reduction
Cars and LCVs reduction
2 and 3 wheelers reduction
Aviation
Shipping
Rail
Trucks
Buses
Cars and LCVs
2 and 3 wheelers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
We
ll to
wh
ee
l GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Gt
CO
₂)
Aviation reduction
Shipping reduction
Rail reduction
Trucks reduction
Buses reduction
Cars and LCVs reduction
2 and 3 wheelers reduction
Aviation
Shipping
Rail
Trucks
Buses
Cars and LCVs
2 and 3 wheelers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
We
ll to
wh
ee
l GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Gt
CO
₂)
Aviation reduction
Shipping reduction
Rail reduction
Trucks reduction
Buses reduction
Cars and LCVs reduction
2 and 3 wheelers reduction
Aviation
Shipping
Rail
Trucks
Buses
Cars and LCVs
2 and 3 wheelers
GHG emission projections Current ETP scenarios - Transport
4DS
2DS
OECD
Non-OECD
World
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Moving below 2DS reductions in transport will require action in all transport modes
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Cars and LCVs
2-3 Wheelers
IEA 2DS level of ambitions – How can we move beyond?
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Trucks
Maritime transport
IEA 2DS level of ambitions – How can we move beyond?
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Aviation
Cross-cutting Technologies
Biofuels
Hydrogen
Non-Technology Options
Modal Shifts
Urban Design/Logistics
IEA 2DS level of ambitions – How can we move beyond?
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Implementing actions
Scope Policy category Impact
Avoid/Shift Vehicle
efficiency
Low carbon
fuels
Local Pricing (congestion charges, tolls
parking fees) Yes Possible none
Regulatory (access & parking
restrictions, low emission zones)Yes Possible Minor
Public transport investments Yes Possible none
Compact city Yes none none
National Fuel taxation Yes Yes Possible
Fuel economy regulations none Yes Possible
Vehicle taxation, feebates Possible Yes Possible
Low carbon fuel standards none none Yes
Alternative fuel mandates none none Yes
RD&D support none yes Yes
IEA 2DS level of ambitions – How can we move beyond?
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Foundation of transport-related analysis in the IEA
Projections to 2050+, 29 global regions (including most of G20), all transportation modes except pipelines
Assess urban and non-urban activity, energy use, emissions (GHG, pollutants), infrastructure and materials demand
Shared with OECD Directorates (TAD), ITF
Developed in the framework of a partnership with major industrial and governmental stakeholders, some academic institutions and NGOs (MoMo partnership)
Sustainable Transport Systems analysis: the IEA Mobility Model and ETP
© OECD/IEA, 2016
ETP uses ASIF (activity–structure–intensity–fuel) methodology
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Arg
en
tin
a
Au
stra
lia
Bra
zil
Ch
ile
Ch
ina
Fran
ce
Eg
yp
t
Ge
rman
y
Ind
ia
Ind
on
esia
Ita
ly
Jap
an
Mal
aysi
a
Me
xico
Po
rtu
gal
Ru
ssia
Sou
th A
fric
a
Spai
n
Thai
lan
d
Turk
ey
UK
Ukr
ain
e
USA
EU-2
7
Wo
rld
OEC
D
No
n-O
EC
D
l/1
00
km
2005
2008
2010
Activity = Distance travelled
Structure = Vehicle Stock
Intensity = Fuel Economy
Sustainable Transport Systems analysis: the IEA Mobility Model and ETP
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Fuel use in Argentina
IEA data coverage and transparency – Understanding energy use patterns
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Fuel use in China
IEA data coverage and transparency – Understanding energy use patterns
© OECD/IEA, 2016
The IEA works around the world to support an
accelerated clean energy transition that is
enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS
supported by ANALYSIS
and built on DATA
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Thank you
www.iea.org/statistics
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Flexible uses in conversion sector
Looking at interactions between energy technologies
Flexible generation
Demand side management
DSM
DSM
DSM
Potentials
Fuel costs Technical and economic
characteristics Electricity and heat demands
Load curves
Fuel demand
Generation mix New capacities
Electricity prices Average generation costs
Emissions
Electricity storage
Pumped storage
CAES
District heat storage
Process heat storage
Energy storage