transport route attractiveness index...contact: [email protected] benchmark trade...
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EuropeAid 2008/155-683
This project is funded by
the European Union
TRT Trasporti e Territorio, Alfen Consult, and PTV AG
This project is implemented by
A State of the art Approach for Benchmark of
Transport and Trade Facilitation corridores
Transport ROUTE
ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX
TRT Trasporti e Territorio, Alfen Consult GmbH and PTV AG 1
Measures it , You can be improve it
UNECE Round Table
June 14, 2012
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Walk through the content
1 Benchmarking O p t i o n s F o r R o u t e s A c r o s s
B o r d e r s
2 What Is TRAX
3 The Routes
4 Calculation Model
5 Results
2
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
The background
• Transport dialogue and interoperability between the EU and its neighboring countries and Central Asian countries
• A coordination project of the EC for TRACECA Route Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia
3
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Why TRAX : The Rationale
• To understands attractiveness of TRACECA routes compared to competing routes
• Find out “real preferences” of transport operators decision making on the route and modal choice along Transport corridors
• Provide basis for improvement of attractiveness
• Prioritize actions with highest impact on attractiveness
• Monitor attractiveness improvements over time (e.g yearly)
4
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Methodologies for Benchmarking
UNESCAP Time/Cost-Distance Methodology
CAREC Time/Cost-Distance Methodology
WB Performance of Transport Corridors in Central and South Asia
WB Review of the International Corridors Transport Prices and Costs in Africa.
UNECE Inland vs. Maritime Transport Comparison Study
• The main instrument being used in recent years to assess the performance of transport routes is the Time/Cost-Distance Methodology that has been promoted by the (UNESCAP).
• LPI logistics index as provided by the World Bank concentrates on the overall logistics performance of countries not on applicable on Routes and corridors
5
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Joint study on developing Euro-Asian transport
linkages”
(UNECE-UNESCAP, 2008)
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Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
EATL Study
Draft Time – Cost diagram for both rail and maritime routes linking Almaty and
Istanbul (source: Comparison study: Inland versus Maritime transport, UNECE, 2010)
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Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
WB / Performance of Transport Corridors in
Central and South Asia
13
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Applicability for route attractiveness
• Time and cost methodologies remain short of
– clearly identifying benchmarking across different routes
– considering external factors relevant for the industry (reliability / Security)
– Provide a simple indication of a route attractiveness
• IDEA project developed with EC support and IRU cooperation TRAX
14
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Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Effects on Flows
• Why the flow distribution is like this and how to improve it
15
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Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Defintion of TRAX
Transport Routes Attractiveness indeX • It measures the attractiveness of a freight
route based on “Criteria” – Time from Origin to Destination
– Cost used for Cargo movement from Origin to Destination
– Reliability / Predictability
– Safety and Security of the cargo
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Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX Rationale
• transport decision made by logistics providers can be reduced to a rationale decision of a transport cost/time bundle which can be ranked in order (“opportunity cost”)
• Factors and variations (uncertainty) in transport time can also be reflected by the opportunity cost in the transport price (detours, border times, unexpected incidents, higher capital cost of transport equipment-in-use
etc.)
• TRAX is an attempt to capture the complex transport decision by a transparent and simplified model
17
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Methodology and data sources
Four Step Approach 1. Obtained and analyzed “driver journals” from IRU
to reflect real life costs and times for transportation from/to EU-Central Asia via different alternative Routes
2. Questionnaire / Interviews with selected representative freight forwarders in Europe / Caucasus / Central Asia to obtain weights for the criteria
3. Calculate Route Index for the three routes 4. Analyze attractiveness blockers and develop
remedies action plans
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Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
STEP 1
Obtained “driver journals” from IRU to reflect real life costs and times for transportation from/to EU-Central Asia via different alternative Routes.
On a base of “driver journals” the next data is available to analyze
- Identify the Routes for analyses - Time: Min and Max Time on each route: Driving /
Wait, Stops (e.g. procedures on border crossing) - Cost: min and max costs of transportation, including
official, non-official payments on route and at border or ports
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Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Three most popular alternative Routes from EU to
Central Asia Considered
Based on driven routes journals obtained from IRU in the framework of NELTI October 2009
1. Trans Russian Route 2. Trans Caucasus Route 3. Trans Turkey / Iran Route
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Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Methodology and data sources
Step 2 Questionnaire / Interviews with selected
representative freight forwarders and road carriers in Europe / Caucasus / Central Asia
• To obtain understanding for business decisions making
• To obtain weights for the such criteria as costs, time, reliability and safety from the business, through paired judgment for the selected criteria
• Quantify Safety and Security (Risk) • To find out the hottest problems from business view
1 1 3 2 4 21
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Methodology and data sources
Step 3 Calculate Route Index for the three routes Step 4 Analyze attractiveness blockers and develop remedies action plans
1 1 3 2 4 23
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
STEP 3 Calculation Approach
• Each corridor is deivided into a number of stretches and nodes along the whole corridor
– Stretches are roads or Ferries
– Nodes are as borders, ports, loading points, logistics centres etc and are assumed having no physical dimension
• We speak about corridors on a broader sense because each corridor might comprise many alternative routes (averaging)
Stretch 1 Stretch 2 Node 12
1 1 3 2 4 24
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
STEP 3 Calculation Equations
Route Stretch’s Index =
F(Ci x αc + TT i x Vt x αt + Ri x αr + Sr x αs )
Route Node’s Index =
F (Cij x αc + TTij x Vt x αt + Rij x αr)
Where as :
• Ci = Observed Transport cost on Stretch i
• α c/t/r/s = Weight of costs / time / reliability / Security in the route choice decision making,
obtained from the freight operators interviews
• TTi = Observed Average Transport time on Stretch i
• Vt = Value of Time for freight transport per cargo
• Sr = Perceived security and safety of Cargo in specific Country
*50 % Point in statistics; means 50 % of data mass are below and 50 % above this point
• Index is adjusted on KM based for comparison reasons
i=1….N (N stretches in total)
J=1…M (M stops in total)
1 1 3 2 4 25
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
STEP 3 Results
• TRAX Index for 1. Trans Russian Route 2. Trans Caucasus Route 3. Trans Turkey Route
• TRAX index for stretches of the routes
• TRAX index for nodes of the routes
• Regional evaluation: TRAX for sub regions
• Waiting times and costs on nodes and stretches
• Level of non official payments, others
1 1 3 2 4 26
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Weights of the Criteria
Weights of criteria for selection of transport routes
1 1 3 2 4
WEIGHT FOR STRETCHES FOR NODES
COST 13% 22%
TIME 17% 29%
RELIABILITY 29% 49%
RISK 41% -
27
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX FOR ROUTES
3032
1255
6767 6373
72
6358
1896
7776
8839
76
8169
2994
11243 10849
146
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
28
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX FOR ROUTES
3032
1255
6767 6373
72
6358
1896
7776
8839
76
8169
2994
11243 10849
146
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
The Trans-Turkey
Is half as attractive
compared to
Trans Russia
29
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX FOR ROUTES
3032
1255
6767 6373
72
6358
1896
7776
8839
76
8169
2994
11243 10849
146
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
Trans-Caucasus
Is almost 3 times less
attractive
Trans-Turkey
Is half as attractive
as the
Trans Russian
30
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX FOR ROUTES
3032
1255
6767 6373
72
6358
1896
7776
8839
76
8169
2994
11243 10849
146
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
31
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX FOR ROUTES
3032
1255
6767 6373
72
6358
1896
7776
8839
76
8169
2994
11243 10849
146
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
32
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX FOR ROUTES
3032
1255
6767 6373
72
6358
1896
7776
8839
76
8169
2994
11243 10849
146
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
33
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX FOR ROUTES
3032
1255
6767 6373
72
6358
1896
7776
8839
76
8169
2994
11243 10849
146
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
72 76
146
34
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX FOR ROUTES
3032
1255
6767 6373
72
6358
1896
7776 8839
76
8169
2994
11243 10849
146
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
72 76
146
TRAX INDEX INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE 3032 1255 6767 6373 72
TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE 6358 1896 7776 8839 76
TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE 8169 2994 11243 10849 146 35
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX INDEX - STRETCHES
TRAX STRETCH INDEX INDEX
TRAVEL COST
TIME COST
RELIABI LITY
SAFETY/ SECURITY KM HRS
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE 1160 442 3619 955 514 5004 84
TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE 1192 457 3723 969 533 5384 87 TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
2368 1572 5541 1862 1662 5740 139
1160
442
3619
955 514
1192
457
3723
969 533
2368
1572
5541
1862 1662
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
36
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRAX INDEX - NODES
TRAX NODES INDEX INDEX
TRAVEL COST
TIME COST
RELIABILITY HRS NODES
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE 2053 813 3148 5418 73 6
TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE 5353 1440 4053 7870 94 5
TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
6493 1964 5702 8987 129 8
2053
813
3148
5418 5353
1440
4053
7870
6493
1964
5702
8987
INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RE COST
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE
37
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – RUSSIAN : TRAX in detail
Region TRAX TRR-Europe TRAX TRR-RF TRAX TRR-CA total
Countries Belarus Russia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 863 898 1452 3213
TRAX stretches 404 398 359 1160 TRAX nodes 459 500 1093 2053
39
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – RUSSIAN : TRAX in detail
Region TRAX TRR-Europe TRAX TRR-RF TRAX TRR-CA total
Countries Belarus Russia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 863 898 1452 3213
TRAX stretches 404 398 359 1160 TRAX nodes 459 500 1093 2053
STRETCHES and NODES TRAX
Are apr the same in Belarus
40
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – RUSSIAN : TRAX in detail
Region TRAX TRR-Europe TRAX TRR-RF TRAX TRR-CA total
Countries Belarus Russia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 863 898 1452 3213
TRAX stretches 404 398 359 1160 TRAX nodes 459 500 1093 2053
STRETCHES and
NODES TRAX
Are apr the same
in Belarus
NODES create more
difficulties for Russia
then STRETCHES
41
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – RUSSIAN : TRAX in detail
Region TRAX TRR-Europe TRAX TRR-RF TRAX TRR-CA total
Countries Belarus Russia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 863 898 1452 3213
TRAX stretches 404 398 359 1160 TRAX nodes 459 500 1093 2053
STRETCHES and
NODES TRAX
Are apr the same
in Belarus
NODES create more
difficulties for Russia
then STRETCHES NODES in Central Asia
contribute about 75% of TRAX
42
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – RUSSIAN : TRAX in detail
Region TRAX TRR-Europe TRAX TRR-RF TRAX TRR-CA total
Countries Belarus Russia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 863 898 1452 3213
TRAX stretches 404 398 359 1160 TRAX nodes 459 500 1093 2053
TRAX for Central Asia in 2 times
higher than West part of the route
43
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – CAUCASUS: TRAX in detail
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN
Region TRAX TCR-Europe TRAX TCR-Caucasus TRAX TCR-CA
total Countries
Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria
Black Sea ferry, Georgia, Azerbajidzan, Caspian
Ferry
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 2765 3480 2616 8861
TRAX stretches 438 1381 549 2368
TRAX nodes 2327 2099 2067 6493 44
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – CAUCASUS: TRAX in detail
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN
Region TRAX TCR-Europe TRAX TCR-Caucasus TRAX TCR-CA
total Countries
Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria
Black Sea ferry, Georgia, Azerbajidzan, Caspian
Ferry
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 2765 3480 2616 8861
TRAX stretches 438 1381 549 2368
TRAX nodes 2327 2099 2067 6493
In all regions nodes are
the worst component
45
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – CAUCASUS: TRAX in detail
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN
Region TRAX TCR-Europe TRAX TCR-Caucasus TRAX TCR-CA
total Countries
Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria
Black Sea ferry, Georgia, Azerbaijdzan, Caspian
Ferry
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 2765 3480 2616 8861
TRAX stretches 438 1381 549 2368
TRAX nodes 2327 2099 2067 6493
Caucasus has lowest
attractiveness?
46
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – TURKEY : TRAX in detail
TURKEY
BULGARIA
IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
KIRGIZSTAN
Region TRAX TTR-Europe-
Turkey TRAX TTR-Middle
east TRAX TTR-CA
total Countries Bulgaria, Turkey Iran
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 1007 3113 2425 6545
TRAX stretches 410 390 392 1192
TRAX nodes 597 2723 2034 5353 47
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – TURKEY : TRAX in detail
TURKEY
BULGARIA
IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
KIRGIZSTAN
Region TRAX TTR-Europe-
Turkey TRAX TTR-Middle
east TRAX TTR-CA
total Countries Bulgaria, Turkey Iran
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 1007 3113 2425 6545
TRAX stretches 410 390 392 1192
TRAX nodes 597 2723 2034 5353
STRETCHES ATTRATIVNESS
ARE ALMOST THE SAME
48
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
TRANS – TURKEY : TRAX in detail
TURKEY
BULGARIA
IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
KIRGIZSTAN
Region TRAX TTR-Europe-
Turkey TRAX TTR-Middle
east TRAX TTR-CA
total Countries Bulgaria, Turkey Iran
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 1007 3113 2425 6545
TRAX stretches 410 390 392 1192
TRAX nodes 597 2723 2034 5353
NODES ON THE EAST…. ANY REASONS
TO IMPROUVE
THE ROADS?
49
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
PAYMENTS ON ROUTES
OFFICIAL AND NON OFFICIAL
50
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
POLAND
BELARUS
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN
ROMANIA
UKRAINE
BULGARIA GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
TURKEY
IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
STRETCH OFFICIAL non OFFICIAL
RU 2% 98%
CAU 62% 38%
TUR 38% 62%
Route-by-Route comparison on level of non official cost
STRETCH OFFICIAL non OFFICIAL
RU 2% 98%
51
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Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
RISK FACTORS (Empirical)
COUNTRY Risk Factor Armenia 0,53 Azerbaijan 0,38 Bulgaria 0,03 Georgia 0,38 Kazakhstan 0,19 Kyrgyzstan 0,35 Moldova 0,15 Tajikistan 0,39 Turkey 0,04 Turkmenistan 0,26 Ukraine 0,06 Uzbekistan 0,17 Islamic Republic of Iran 0,25 Russian Federation 0,13 Romania 0,06 Belarus 0,15
52
Contact: [email protected]
Benchmark Trade Facilitation Corridors
Next steps
• We already extended TRAX method to Railway routes
• Compiled a set of soft measures for attractiveness improvements
• Practical guide for Border crossing
• Second round of TRAX calculation 2013
• Improvements to the transport forecast model
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