Future for London

Adapting for demographic

change

19th March 2013

Existing projections give a big range

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

9,000,000

9,500,000

10,000,000

10,500,000

11,000,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Year

Tota

l P

opula

tion

ONS 2010 SNPP

ONS 2011 SNPP

GLA 2011 SHLAA

London births 1965 - 2010

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Bir

ths

Internal migration

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rolling years to end each quarter

No

. of

peo

ple

(th

ou

san

ds)

In

Out

International migration

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rolling years to end each quarter

No.

of

peop

le (

thou

sand

s)

In

Out

GLA proposed domestic migration

scenario

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Year

Flo

w

Out

In

Net

Constrained/Unconstrained projections

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

To

tal p

op

ula

tion

Millio

ns

Year

Greater London

2012rnd SHLAA

2012rnd unconstrained

2011 Census 2011 London

Plan

2012 GLA

constrained

2012 GLA

unc’nstrn’d

2011 8.17 7.8 8.2 8.2

2016 8.06 8.7 8.76

2021 8.32 9.1 9.22

2031 8.82 9.67 9.95

2036 9.89 10.26

London’s changing age structure

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+

Age

Pe

rso

ns

2036 - GLA 5yr average

2001 MYE

2011 MYE

How do we approach what could be a

radical change in London’s

demography?

• Vision 2020: practical near/medium term

focus nb recession recovery, but also the

big picture/issues for the future?

• A Further Alteration to the London Plan:

constrained by current philosophy, but can

flag possible issues for a future full

Review?

• Full Review: once we’re clear where these

trends are likely to lead us?

What might this mean for…. housing • Current supply: 32k pa, but 200k in pipeline. Non

planning barriers to delivery

• Housing requirement: currently 35k, for the future at

least 40k?

• How will this translate into tenures? Nb other factors -

resource constraints, old provision models

• What will it mean spatially eg selective intensification

(town centres, inner London?); mixed use in industrial

areas?; NPPF new towns? implications of major

infrastructure eg Xrail II, airport?

• Density: selectively higher but try and keep the

quintessentially London?

• Quality: space standards, balconies, climate change….

What might this mean for….. the economy

• Traditionally employment projections are trend

based – how do we factor in population increase

(230 jobs/000)?

• How do we resolve high value resi cf low value

business space?

• What is the office of the future going to look like

nb impact of home working?

• What role should industry have in a bourgeoning

post industrial city?

• How will pop increase bear on retailing?

• And leisure…..?

What might this mean for …. the

environment

• Green Belt, MOL and London’s green

spaces: should these be inviolate?

• The built environment eg high buildings,

lifetime neighbourhoods, heritage?

• Water, energy, air quality, waste,

aggregates?

• Climate change abatement/adaptation?

What might this mean for …. the shape of

London

What form comes next……?

THE LONDON PLAN:

town centre network

THE LONDON PLAN: Opportunity & Intensification

Areas

THE LONDON PLAN:

Strategic Industrial Locations

THE LONDON PLAN:

Areas for Regeneration

THE LONDON PLAN: strategic open space

network

Future of London

Simon Nielsen, Strategic Analysis, TfL

London – a rapidly growing population • London’s population has grown by almost 900,000 in the past ten years, the

equivalent of adding more than the entire population of Leeds.

• The 2010 pre-Census estimates underestimated London’s population by almost

300,000 – which is greater than the population of Hull.

23

6.5

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.3

7.5

7.7

7.9

8.1

8.3

8.5

Gre

ate

r London P

opu

lati

on (m

illions)

Pre-Census (2011) mid year estimates Population (millions)

Population growth is not evenly spread across London

• Certain boroughs have seen their populations grow by over 20 per cent since 2001 –

including Hackney, Westminster, Newham and Tower Hamlets (which grew by 30

per cent).

• Other boroughs experienced more modest growth, while the population of

Kensington & Chelsea fell slightly.

24

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

City o

f London

Bar

king

and D

agenham

Bar

net

Bexl

ey

Bre

nt

Bro

mle

y

Cam

den

Cro

ydon

Eal

ing

Enfield

Gre

enw

ich

Hac

kney

Ham

mers

mith a

nd F

ulh

am

Har

inge

y

Har

row

Hav

ering

Hillingd

on

Hounsl

ow

Islingto

n

Kensi

ngto

n a

nd C

hels

ea

Kin

gsto

n u

pon T

ham

es

Lam

beth

Lew

isham

Mert

on

New

ham

Redbridge

Ric

hm

ond u

pon T

ham

es

South

war

k

Sutt

on

Tow

er H

amle

ts

Wal

tham

Fore

st

Wan

dsw

ort

h

West

min

ster

All

% change

Population growth has driven an

increase in travel demand

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

Tri

ps

per

day (m

illions)

Cycle trips Walk trips Private transport trips Public transport trips

• The number of trips on an average day in London has also increased – up from 22.9

million in 2001 to 25.5 million in 2011.

• However, the number of trips per person (trip rates) remained stable, at around 2.8

per person.

Within the increase in travel demand, there have

been some very different trends • Total daily trips increased by almost the same rate as London’s population – up

by 11 per cent on 2001.

• This increase was driven by a 39 per cent increase in public transport trips. In

contrast, private transport trips decreased by 7 per cent, despite the increase in

population over the same period.

26

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Index: 2001 =

100

Total trips Public transport trips Private transport trips

Walk/cycle stages Population Jobs

Mode shift – private to public • In 2011, 43.3 per cent of daily trips were made by public transport. In 2001, this

was 34.6 per cent – meaning an 8.7 percentage point mode shift to public

transport.

• In contrast, private transport mode share fell from 42.6 per cent to 34.1 per cent.

27

Car

34%

Bus (including tram)

22%

Walk

21%

Underground

11%

Rail

9%

Cycle

2%

Taxi

1%

Motorcycle

1%DLR

1%

Greater population growth has implications for

forecasts

• In 2011, there were 5 per cent more daily trips in London than forecast in the

Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS).

• By 2031, using current population projections, there could be 8% more trips,

equal to 2.1 million extra per day.

28

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Index: 2001 =

100

MTS forecast Trips (forecast) Trips

5% more trips in 2011

than forecast in MTS

8% more trips

forecast in 2031

than forecast in

MTS

Future population growth is predicted to

be higher in East London

2011 London Plan Change 2011-31

Change 2011-31

% Share of growth

South 86 5% 8%

East 501 23% 49%

West 106 7% 10%

North 145 13% 14%

Central 183 13% 18%

GLA 2012 Constrained

Projection

South 205 12% 14%

East 566 25% 39%

West 205 13% 14%

North 192 16% 13%

Central 284 20% 20%

29

30

The MTS proposes enhancements to London’s transport infrastructure –

the main funded improvements in South London are enhancements to

existing surface rail

This figure sets out

funded and unfunded

improvements featured in

the strategy

Potential Implications

• Scale of growth...does this mean that the next tranche of big projects

should be brought forward? Are they still the right projects? How to pay

for all that is needed?

• Geographical / spatial distribution ... For example, with more growth

in South London does this make a case for extra infrastructure?

• Increased densities...what are the implications? More pressures for

space for parking, more PT? How does this affect demand?

• Characteristics of the extra people...are they older, younger, more

from abroad? Each could have different transport requirements..

• Employment – if smaller than population growth will there be an

increase in outward commuting?

• Environmental implications...more populous dense city - more difficult

to meet absolute targets but per capita emissions ...

• Role of demand management...increasing importance of behaviour

change?

31