transportation systems analysis model and very light jet demand
DESCRIPTION
Transportation Systems Analysis Model And Very Light Jet Demand. -Automobiles -Commercial Air -New Mode or Vehicle. Airports IPT - JPDO November 15, 2005. Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM). Antonio Trani (540-231-4418) Hojong Baik Nick Hinze Senanu Ashiabor Howard Swingle - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Transportation Systems Analysis ModelAnd Very Light Jet Demand
Airports IPT - JPDONovember 15, 2005
-Automobiles-Commercial Air-New Mode or Vehicle
Transportation Systems Analysis Model
(TSAM)
Jeff Viken(757-864-2875)
Stuart CookeNASA Langley Research Center
Antonio Trani(540-231-4418)
Hojong Baik Nick Hinze
Senanu AshiaborHoward SwingleAnand SeshadriKrishna Murthy
Virginia Tech University
Sam DollyhighJohn CalleryJeremy Smith
Swales Aerospace
Attributes of the Transportation
Systems Analysis Model • Computes national demand for long distance travel• Aggregates demand from 3,091 county level projections• Socio-economic based (5 different income levels)• Models preferences for purpose of travel: Personal or Business• Models all legs of trip from doorstep to doorstep• Future projections can be made to 2025• Multi-modal in scope• Uses accepted transportation analysis methods• Aerospace technology sensitive (demand related to trip cost and time)• Demand can be based upon supply/capacity relationships• Demand studies an be applied to full range of NASA and FAA aviation
projects• Systems studies can be made to model a complete national
transportation system (Commercial Airlines in the NAS, SATS)
Premise that Defines Importance of TSAM to Users
Gains in capacity in the NAS and mobility to the traveler are credible only if:
Demand is predicted correctly….– Numbers of travelers– Location of travelers– Trip cost– Total trip time– Safety, perceptions, etc
TSAM models travel statistics from:– population– income– purpose
at the county level, and not from a regression of trend variables
Transportation Systems
Analysis Model
Aerospace Aerospace TechnologyTechnology
Trip Demand Generation
Given: Socio-economic characteristics for each county (for all states)
Predict: a) Number of trips produced per household/year
for various income levels b) Trip attractiveness to a county
Use: Trip rate tables
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
< 30k 30k to60k
60k to100k
100k to150k
> 150k
Annual Household Income ($)
Person-trips per Year
Business
Non-Business
Woods and Poole Data Implemented in the Woods and Poole Data Implemented in the Transportation Systems Analysis ModelTransportation Systems Analysis Model
Household Income Changes (2000-2025)
Changes in the U.S. Population (Years 2000 to 2025)
Woods and Poole Demographic Data Implemented in Woods and Poole Demographic Data Implemented in the Transportation Systems Analysis Modelthe Transportation Systems Analysis Model
Trip Distribution Analysis
Given: Trips produced from and attracted to each county
Predict: a) Number of person-trips from each origin to every
destination (county to county)
Use: Gravity ModelTij
PiAjFijKij
AjFij Kijj1=
n∑
-----------------------------------=
Trip Distribution (From)
Trip Distribution (To)
Selecting a Mode of Travel
Commercial Aviation
Route1
New or Improved Mode
Auto
Route2... Route nIncludes Airport ChoiceIncludes Airport Choice
Factors considered in selecting a mode:Factors considered in selecting a mode:• Travel timeTravel time• Travel costTravel cost• Value of timeValue of time• Route convenienceRoute convenience• Trip typeTrip type• Reliability of serviceReliability of service• Frequency of serviceFrequency of service
Multiple Route Mode ChoiceMode of Transportation Distance (miles) Cost ($) Time (hrs)
Auto 2154 1140 34.4Airline (Coach) 2690 630 16.4Airline (Business) 2690 1830 16.4SATS 1920 2940 10.4
Mode Choice - Auto
Mode Choice – Commercial Air
Mode Choice – SATS / Very Light Jets
Airport Demand - Commercial
Airport Demand - SATS / Very Light Jets
Description of the Very Light Jet Aircraft
• Pressurized aircraft• Four revenue seats• 365 mph cruise speed• Certified to fly into known icing conditions• 1,100 nm range• Cost per passenger-mile ($1.75 nominal based on
life-cycle cost analysis)• 3415 public airports (> 3,000 ft. paved runways)• Low Landing Minima capability provided to all
airports using SATS LLM hardware (WAAS-aided)• Airport Design Group = A-I• Wake Vortex Classification = Small
4,800 Very Light Jets in Service by 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
High Production Rate
Moderate Production Rate
Low Production Rate
Year
On-demand Cost Model (@ 1.75 passenger-mile) using VLJ AircraftOn-demand Cost Model (@ 1.75 passenger-mile) using VLJ Aircraft
VLJ Traffic in 2014 with OEP Airports
VLJ Traffic in 2025 with OEP Airports
Spatial Distribution of VLJ Operations (2014)
Top 30 Airports (2014)with OEP Airports
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Westchester Co. (HPN)Albuquerque Intl. (ABQ)
Oakland-Troy (7D2)Gwinnett Co. (LZU)
L.G. Hanscom Field (BED)Essex Co. NJ (CDW)
Orlando Executive (ORL)Fresno-Yosemite (FAT)
William P. Hobby (HOU)Van Nuys (VNY)
Reno-Tahoe Intl. (RNO)Manassas Regional (HEF)N. Mineta San Jose (SJC)
Oakland Co. MI (PTK)North Las Vegas (VGT)
St. Louis Downtown (CPS)Sugar Land Reg. (SGR)
Fort Worth Meacham (FTW)Centennial (APA)
Montgomery Co. MD (GAI)Stinson Municipal (SSF)
Teterboro (TEB)Farmingdale-Republic (FRG)
Reagan National (DCA)Salt Lake City Intl. (SLC)
Fort Lauderdale Exec. (FXE)Dekalb-Peachtree (PDK)
Fulton Co. (FTY)Love Field (DAL)
Midway (MDW)Mc Carran Intl. (LAS)
ArrivalsDepartures
Daily Flights
Scenario: Year 2014 with OEP Airports
0 100 200 300 400 500
Westchester Co. (HPN)L.G. Hanscom Field (BED)
Boulder City Muni. (61B)Fresno-Yosemite (FAT)
Centennial (APA)Willow Run (YIP)
Orlando Executive (ORL)Reno-Stead (4SD)
Essex Co. NJ (CDW)Morristown Muni. (MMU)Boise Air Terminal (BOI)
Montgomery Co. MD (GAI)Sugar Land Reg. (SGR)
St. Louis Downtown (CPS)Fort Worth Meacham (FTW)
Palwaukee Muni. (PWK)Albuquerque Intl. (ABQ)
Gwinnett Co. (LZU)Opa Locka (OPF)
William P. Hobby (HOU)Teterboro (TEB)
Dupage (DPA)Farmingdale-Republic (FRG)
Van Nuys (VNY)St. Lake City Muni. (U42)
Oakland Co. MI (PTK)San Antonio Intl. (SAT)
Dekalb-Peachtree (PDK)Fulton Co. (FTY)
Fort Lauderdale Exec. (FXE)Love Field (DAL)
North Las Vegas (VGT)
ArrivalsDepartures
Daily Flights
Scenario: Year 2014 no OEP Airports
Top 30 Airports (2014)No OEP Airports
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Oakland-Troy (7D2)Gwinnett Co. (LZU)
St. Louis Downtown (CPS)St. Petersburg (PIE)
Orlando Executive (ORL)Kansas City Downtown (MKC)
N. Mineta San Jose (SJC)Centennial (APA)
Oakland Co. MI (PTK)Van Nuys (VNY)Miami Intl. (MIA)
Montgomery Co. MD (GAI)L.G. Hanscom Field (BED)
Boise Air Terminal (BOI)Reno-Tahoe Intl. (RNO)Albuquerque Intl. (ABQ)
Farmingdale-Republic (FRG)Teterboro (TEB)
William P. Hobby (HOU)Fort Worth Meacham (FTW)
North Las Vegas (VGT)Sugar Land Reg. (SGR)Salt Lake City Intl. (SLC)Reagan National (DCA)Stinson Municipal (SSF)
Dekalb-Peachtree (PDK)Fulton Co. (FTY)
Fort Lauderdale Exec. (FXE)Midway (MDW)
Love Field (DAL)Mc Carran Intl. (LAS)
ArrivalsDepartures
Daily Flights
Scenario: Year 2025 with OEP Airports
Top 30 Airports (2025)with OEP Airports
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
St. Petersburg (PIE)Flying Cloud (FCM)
Morristown Muni. (MMU)Fresno-Yosemite (FAT)
Reno-Stead (4SD)Boise Air Terminal (BOI)
Boeing Filed (BFI)Montgomery Co. MD (GAI)
Farmingdale-Republic (FRG)N. Mineta San Jose (SJC)
Albuquerque Intl. (ABQ)Westchester Co. (HPN)
Orlando Executive (ORL)Palwaukee Muni. (PWK)
Centennial (APA)Dupage (DPA)
Opa Locka (OPF)Van Nuys (VNY)
Gwinnett Co. (LZU)Teterboro (TEB)
Sugar Land Reg. (SGR)Fort Worth Meacham (FTW)
William P. Hobby (HOU)St. Lake City Muni. (U42)
Oakland Co. MI (PTK)San Antonio Intl. (SAT)
Dekalb-Peachtree (PDK)Fort Lauderdale Exec. (FXE)
Fulton Co. (FTY)Love Field (DAL)
North Las Vegas (VGT)
Arrivals
Departures
Daily Flights
Scenario: Year 2025, No OEP Airports
Top 30 Airports (2025)No OEP Airports
Top 30 Airports (2014)No OEP Airports
Top 30 Airports (2014)No OEP Airports
Airport Operations - 2014 - no OEP
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Westchester Co. (HPN)L.G. Hanscom Field (BED)Boulder City Muni. (61B)
Fresno-Yosemite (FAT)Centennial (APA)Willow Run (YIP)
Orlando Executive (ORL)Reno-Stead (4SD)
Essex Co. NJ (CDW)Morristown Muni. (MMU)Boise Air Terminal (BOI)
Montgomery Co. MD (GAI)Sugar Land Reg. (SGR)
St. Louis Downtown (CPS)Fort Worth Meacham (FTW)
Palwaukee Muni. (PWK)Albuquerque Intl. (ABQ)
Gwinnett Co. (LZU)Opa Locka (OPF)
William P. Hobby (HOU)Teterboro (TEB)
Dupage (DPA)Farmingdale-Republic (FRG)
Van Nuys (VNY)St. Lake City Muni. (U42)
Oakland Co. MI (PTK)San Antonio Intl. (SAT)
Dekalb-Peachtree (PDK)Fulton Co. (FTY)
Fort Lauderdale Exec. (FXE)Love Field (DAL)
North Las Vegas (VGT)
Daily Operations
2004 Local
2004 Itinerant
2014 Local
2014 Itinerant
2014 SATS / VLJ
Top 30 Airports (2014)With OEP Airports
Top 30 Airports (2014)With OEP Airports
Airport Operations - 2014 - With OEP
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Westchester Co. (HPN)Albuquerque Intl. (ABQ)
Oakland-Troy (7D2)Gwinnett Co. (LZU)
L.G. Hanscom Field (BED)Essex Co. NJ (CDW)
Orlando Executive (ORL)Fresno-Yosemite (FAT)
William P. Hobby (HOU)Van Nuys (VNY)
Reno-Tahoe Intl. (RNO)Manassas Regional (HEF)N. Mineta San Jose (SJC)
Oakland Co. MI (PTK)North Las Vegas (VGT)
St. Louis Downtown (CPS)Sugar Land Reg. (SGR)
Fort Worth Meacham (FTW)Centennial (APA)
Montgomery Co. MD (GAI)Stinson Municipal (SSF)
Teterboro (TEB)Farmingdale-Republic (FRG)
Reagan National (DCA) - OEPSalt Lake City Intl. (SLC) - OEP
Fort Lauderdale Exec. (FXE)Dekalb-Peachtree (PDK)
Fulton Co. (FTY)Love Field (DAL)
Midway (MDW) - OEPMc Carran Intl. (LAS) - OEP
Daily Operations
2004 Local
2004 Itinerant
2014 Local
2014 Itinerant
2014 SATS / VLJ
Top 30 Airports (2025)No OEP Airports
Top 30 Airports (2025)No OEP Airports
Airport Operations - 2025 - no OEP
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
St. Petersburg (PIE)
Flying Cloud (FCM)
Morristown Muni. (MMU)
Fresno-Yosemite (FAT)
Reno-Stead (4SD)
Boise Air Terminal (BOI)
Boeing Filed (BFI)
Montgomery Co. MD (GAI)
Farmingdale-Republic (FRG)
N. Mineta San Jose (SJC)
Albuquerque Intl. (ABQ)
Westchester Co. (HPN)
Orlando Executive (ORL)
Palwaukee Muni. (PWK)
Centennial (APA)
Dupage (DPA)
Opa Locka (OPF)
Van Nuys (VNY)
Gwinnett Co. (LZU)
Teterboro (TEB)
Sugar Land Reg. (SGR)
Fort Worth Meacham (FTW)
William P. Hobby (HOU)
St. Lake City Muni. (U42)
Oakland Co. MI (PTK)
San Antonio Intl. (SAT)
Dekalb-Peachtree (PDK)
Fort Lauderdale Exec. (FXE)
Fulton Co. (FTY)
Love Field (DAL)
North Las Vegas (VGT)
Daily Operations
2004 Local2004 Itinerant2025 Local2025 Itinerant2014 SATS / VLJ2025
Top 30 Airports (2025)With OEP Airports
Top 30 Airports (2025)With OEP Airports
Airport Operations - 2025 - with OEP
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Oakland-Troy (7D2)
Gwinnett Co. (LZU)
St. Louis Downtown (CPS)
St. Petersburg (PIE)
Orlando Executive (ORL)
Kansas City Downtown (MKC)
N. Mineta San Jose (SJC)
Centennial (APA)
Oakland Co. MI (PTK)
Van Nuys (VNY)
Miami Intl. (MIA) - OEP
Montgomery Co. MD (GAI)
L.G. Hanscom Field (BED)
Boise Air Terminal (BOI)
Reno-Tahoe Intl. (RNO)
Albuquerque Intl. (ABQ)
Farmingdale-Republic (FRG)
Teterboro (TEB)
William P. Hobby (HOU)
Fort Worth Meacham (FTW)
North Las Vegas (VGT)
Sugar Land Reg. (SGR)
Salt Lake City Intl. (SLC) - OEP
Reagan National (DCA) - OEP
Stinson Municipal (SSF)
Dekalb-Peachtree (PDK)
Fulton Co. (FTY)
Fort Lauderdale Exec. (FXE)
Midway (MDW) - OEP
Love Field (DAL)
Mc Carran Intl. (LAS) - OEP
Daily Operations
2004 Local2004 Itinerant2025 Local2025 Itinerant2014 SATS / VLJ2025
Impact of VLJ Operations at Non-Towered Airports
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Montgomery County (GAI)
Oakland/Troy (7D2)
Cincinnati-Blue Ash (ISZ)
Schaumburg Regional (O6C)
Millard-Omaha (MLE)
Jean - Las Vegas (OL7)
Herlong - Jacksonville (HEG)
Tipton - Maryland (FME)
Madera Municipal (MAE)
Lee Gilmer Memorial (GVL)
Knoxville Downtown (DKX)
Denton Municipal (DTO)
Vandenberg (VDF)
Leesburg Executive (JYO)
Carson City (CXP)
Boulder City Muni. (61B)
Palm Beach Co. (LNA)
Provo Municipal (PVU)
Fresno-Chandler (FCH)
VLJ Operations
Itinerant Commuter/Air Taxi
Itinerant General Aviation
Local General Aviation
Daily Operations
2014 VLJ Air-Taxi NAS Impacts
Airspace Impacts (Year 2014)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
ZSEZLCZOAZABZDVZBWZFWZKCZMPZHUZLAZMEZJX
ZMAZAUZID
ZDCZOBZTLZNY
Enroute Center
Daily Aircraft Operations (IFR)
ETMS Traffic (2004)FAA Center Projections (2014)
VLJ Traffic (2014)
NAS Daily Flights
Baseline and Projected NAS Daily Traffic
3676953902
6964713133
16512
2109818576
25800
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2004 2014 2025 / 2X
Year of Analysis
SATS / VLJ
Military
Freight
G/A
Commercial / Air Taxi / Commuter
57,628
97,969
127,421
1.38
1.76
1.70
2.21
Baseline NAS: 2004 ETMSProjections:
2014 - NAS Flights + VLJ2025 - NAS Flights + VLJ
Historical Travel GrowthFAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
• Years 1981 to 2000 – Enplanements - 142% increase– Air Carrier Itinerant Operations - 57% increase– GA Itinerant Operations - 5% decrease !– Total Itinerant Operations - 18.6% increase
Note: GA and Total Itinerant Operations include GA VFR flights
FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
• TAF reports Itinerant Operations in 4 categories– Air Carrier
– Air-Taxi and Commuter
– Military
– General Aviation
• Air Carrier and Air-Taxi/Commuter are the major drivers of Operations in NAS and OEP airports
• General Aviation operations are approximately 2/3 VFR flights
Projected Travel GrowthFAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
TAF Summary
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2004*2005*2006*2007*2008*2009*2010*2011* 2012*2013*2014*2015*2016*2017*2018*2019*2020*
Year
Growth ratio WRT 2004
Scheduled EnplanmentsAC opsAT & Comm opsGA opsTotal Itinerant opsTotal ops inc local
Note the different growth ratios between demand and operations
2014
Projected Travel GrowthFAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
Base Year 2004
Note:
Data past 2020 taken from 2019-2020 growth rate
Total Itinerant Ops includes GA VFR flights
FAA predicts average aircraft size to increase which does not reflect recent growth in Regional Jet flights
EnplanementRatio to
Base Year
Year Predicted
by TAFAir-CarrierOps Ratio
Air-Taxi /Commuter Ops Ratio
TotalItinerant
Ops Ratio
1.2X 2009 1.13 1.11 1.071.4X 2014 1.26 1.2 1.142X 2028 1.68 1.5 1.343X 2043 2.28 1.9 1.61
Projected Travel GrowthFAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
Airport enplanement and operations growth highly dependent on the airport set examined
Growth From 2004 to 2014
Growth in Enplanements
Growth in Operations
35 OEP Airports 41.0% 29.4%All TAF Airports 40.0% 13.6%
Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Demand
• TSAM can make future projections (to 2030) for the following:– Commercial airline demand and operations– Legacy General Aviation operations– SATS / VLJ / Air-Taxi both demand and operations
(Emergent travel mode)– International Commercial Airline demand and
operations (currently in development)– Cargo demand and operations (proposed future
development)
TSAM comparison with Domestic Enplanement Data
2004
TSAM: Business trips 86.7M
Personal trips: 154.0M
Total Commercial Airline Trips: 240.7M
How does this relate to enplanements?
Assumption: ~36% of trips have connection
Each person trip has 2 trips - Depart and Return
TSAM Commercial Enplanements: 654.7M
ATA/FAA Reported Enplanements: 635.5M (3% difference)
TSAM Commercial Airline Demand Projections
• Relative to base year 2004
Year Growth Ratio2009 1.42014 1.62025 2.02047 3.0*
* Based on growth rate 2024 to 2025
FAA Fare Yield Projections
FAA Aerospace Forecasts, 2005-2016, Table 14, Air Carrier Fare Yields
Year Current $ FY 2004 $YearlyChange
From2000
From2004
1999 13.54 15.322000 14.03 15.38 0.39%2001 13.53 14.38 -6.50% -6.50%2002 11.88 12.45 -13.42% -19.05%2003 11.73 12.00 -3.61% -21.98%2004 11.46 11.46 -4.50% -25.49%2005 11.11 10.81 -5.67% -29.71% -5.67%2006 11.15 10.62 -1.76% -30.95% -7.33%2007 11.25 10.47 -1.41% -31.92% -8.64%2008 11.39 10.35 -1.15% -32.70% -9.69%2009 11.53 10.23 -1.16% -33.49% -10.73%2010 11.65 10.10 -1.27% -34.33% -11.87%2011 11.79 9.97 -1.29% -35.18% -13.00%2012 11.95 9.86 -1.10% -35.89% -13.96%2013 12.10 9.74 -1.22% -36.67% -15.01%2014 12.25 9.62 -1.23% -37.45% -16.06%2015 12.39 9.50 -1.25% -38.23% -17.10%2016 12.54 9.37 -1.37% -39.08% -18.24%
TSAM Demand is a Function of Ticket Cost to Traveler
Fare Yield Scenarios Analyzed
Fare Yield
Scenario
2005 (January)
2014 2025
FAA Forecast -30.0% -37.8% -55.8%
Maintain low fares
-30.0% -25.0% -25.0%
Fares return to 2000 levels
-30.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oil greatly exceeds CPI
-30.0% +10.0% +25.0%
•
TSAM - Sensitivity of Air Travel to Fare Yields
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2004 2014 2025
Year
Enplanements by Scheduled Air (Million)
Non-Business Fare Yields: 1/.622/.542FAA TAFNon-Business Fare Yields: 1/.78/.65 RTM
Non-Business Fare Yields: 1/1/1
Business Fare Yields: 1/.622/.542 FAATAFBusiness Fare Yields: 1/.78/.65 RTM
Business Fare Yields: 1/1/1
TSAM comparisons with TAF
2014TSAM:
FAA Projected Enplanements: 879.2M
Fare YieldScenario
FAAForecast
MaintainLow Fares
Return to2000 levels
Oil PricesExceed CPI
Fare YieldReduction -37.80% -25% 0% 10%BusinessPerson Trips 123.2M 119.8M 116M 114.6MNon-BusinessPerson Trips 290.7M 243.7M 197.6M 181.3MTotalPerson Trips 413.9M 363.5M 313.6M 295.9MGrowth From2004 72% 51% 30% 23%
TotalEnplanements 1,125.8M 988.7 853 804.8
Future Airline Schedules to Meet Demand Projections
• Future flight schedules are grown from current commercial schedules using the Fratar algorithm
• Airplanes are assumed to have an average 70% load factor• Increased passenger demand between airports can be met with a
combination of increased flight frequency and larger aircraft• Research by Airbus1(next slide) indicates that airlines will satisfy increased
demand by adding the following service (flights refer to all airlines combined):– Total round trip flights <= 6 - Increase frequency of flights between airports– Total round trip flights > 60 - Increase capacity (size) of aircraft– Total round trip flights in between: Use a combination of increased frequency
and increased capacity.
1) http://www.airbus.com/pdf/media/GMF2004_demand_passenger.pdf
Direct Flights
• As demand increases between city pairs in the future, we model airlines introducing direct flights where non existed previously
• We model this by introducing 2 direct flights (each way) per day when passenger demand exceeds 25k trips per year
• Add 1 morning and 1 evening direct flight each way
• Remove shortest connecting route flights from future schedule (only flights of 2 legs considered)
• 2 direct flights replace 4 connecting flights
• The base schedule has not been changed.
ATL Departures and Arrivals X2 with Direct Flights and Consolidation of Operations to Larger Aircraft
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96
Epoch (15 minutes)
Number of Operations
2004 Dep
2004 Arr
X2 Dep
X2 Arr
Direct+Cons Dep
Direct+Cons Arr
ORD Departures and Arrivals X2 with Direct Flights and Consolidation of Operations to Larger Aircraft
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96
Epoch (15 minutes)
Number of Operations
2004 Dep
2004 Arr
X2 Dep
X2 Arr
Direct+Cons Dep
Direct+Cons Arr
System TotalFlights
FlightGrowthRatio
ATL FlightGrowthRatio
ORD FlightGrowthRatio
2004 35,605 2,620 2,773
2X 72,737 2.04X 6,465 2.47X 5,936 2.14X
DirectFlights
68,671 1.93X 5,512 2.10X 5,505 1.99X
DirectFlights+LargerAircraft
63,963 1.80X 4,704 1.80X 4,808 1.73X
Commercial Operations Based on 2X Passenger Demand
Note: Based on FAA Fare Yield Projections
System TotalFlights
FlightGrowthRatio
ATL FlightGrowthRatio
ORD FlightGrowthRatio
2004 35,605 2,620 2,773
3X 108,955 3.06X 10,162 3.88X 8,577 3.09X
DirectFlights
100,811 2.83X 8,318 3.17X 7,773 2.80X
DirectFlights+LargerAircraft
82,156 2.31X 5,596 2.14X 5,687 2.05X
Commercial Operations Based on 3X Passenger Demand
Note: Based on FAA Fare Yield Projections
Traffic Assignment• BADA ModelBADA Model
• Aircraft performance Aircraft performance • FuelFuel
• 4D Trajectories4D Trajectories• FAA airspace sectorsFAA airspace sectors
TSAM - Concluding Remarks
• TSAM is a unique model that projects the national demand for travel from socio-economic and population characteristics by county
• TSAM can compute the demand for a completely new mode of travel diverted from existing travel modes
• Near term goal is to be able to build completely new and arbitrary Commercial Airline networks in the NAS from county demand
• A new point-to-point transportation network (SATS, etc) can be built from county demand
• Current and future International Airline traffic in the NAS can be modeled• Can be used to conduct noise and emission studies, both on a regional and
national level, with current and proposed vehicles and transportation
networks.• Can be used to evaluate the demand for a given technology investment based
upon the performance enhancement