transversal analysis on the evolution of skills needs in 19 economic sectors committee on employment...
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Transversal Analysis on the Evolution of Skills Needs in 19 Economic Sectors
Committee on Employment and Social Affairs, European Parliament
2nd December 2009
Prepared by Oxford Research for DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities
Oxford Research A/SFalkoner Allé 20, 4. sal2000 Frederiksberg CDanmark
Oxford Research ABBox 582201 25 MalmöSverige
Oxford Research ASKjøita 424630 KristiansandNorge
Background of the study
• A transversal analysis of 19 A transversal analysis of 19
comprehensive sector studiescomprehensive sector studies
• The (18) sector studies where The (18) sector studies where
carried out in 2007-2009 all carried out in 2007-2009 all
following the European following the European
Foresight MethodologyForesight Methodology
• The amount of comparable The amount of comparable
sectoral data provides a sectoral data provides a
unique possibility for unique possibility for
developing a coherent view on developing a coherent view on
the emerging skills needs the emerging skills needs
process in Europeprocess in Europe
Sectors included in the study
Sectors included in the transversal study
Automotive Furniture
Building of ships and boats
Health and social work
Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastics
Hotels, restaurants and catering
Computer, electronic and optical devices
Non-metallic materials
Construction Other services, maintenance and cleaning
Defence industry Post and telecommunications
Distribution and trade Printing and publishing
Electricity, gas, water and waste
Textiles, apparel and leather products
Electromechanical engineering
Transport and logistics
Financial services
The 19 sectors together The 19 sectors together covers around 60 % of covers around 60 % of total EU employmenttotal EU employment
Focus of the study
Focus of the study: Direct Focus of the study: Direct sectoral employmentsectoral employment
Focus of the study: Direct Focus of the study: Direct sectoral employmentsectoral employment
Actual construction Actual construction of buildings, of buildings, roads, etc.roads, etc.
Architects, engineers, suppliers of
materials and machinery, etc.
Real estate, rental agencies. etc
Example: Construction
Actual productionActual production and assembling of and assembling of
automobilesautomobiles
Suppliers ofmaterials, subparts,
machinery, etc.
Marketing, distribution and retail
sales, etc.
Actual Actual cleaning cleaning serviceservice
Cleaning agents, tools and machinery, marketing, etc.
Example: Production of automobiles
Example: Other services - cleaning
Methodology
• Compilation of sectoral Compilation of sectoral
key data from the 19 key data from the 19
sector studiessector studies
• Validating review of Validating review of
available sectoral data available sectoral data (impact of the financial crisis)(impact of the financial crisis)
• Multicorrelation of dataMulticorrelation of data
• Sectoral path finding Sectoral path finding
and evolutionary and evolutionary
paradigmsparadigms
NB! Work in progress
Main economic and employment trends
Upskilling / Deskilling
Upskilling vs deskilling
Level of upskilling
Sectors
High Chemical, Computer, Finance, Printing
Medium Automotive, Defence, Energy, Electromechanical, Furniture, Health & social work, Post & tele, Transport
Low Shipbuilding, Construction, Distribution & trade, HoReCa, Non-metallic, Other services, Textiles
Static None
Deskilling None
Definition Definition
UpskillingUpskilling defined as prominent defined as prominent
growth in either managerial and/or growth in either managerial and/or
higher technical positions higher technical positions
(professionals)(professionals)
DeskillingDeskilling defined as prominent defined as prominent
growth trends among low growth trends among low
skilled/manual workersskilled/manual workers
Definition Definition
UpskillingUpskilling defined as prominent defined as prominent
growth in either managerial and/or growth in either managerial and/or
higher technical positions higher technical positions
(professionals)(professionals)
DeskillingDeskilling defined as prominent defined as prominent
growth trends among low growth trends among low
skilled/manual workersskilled/manual workers
• Upskilling is prevalent Upskilling is prevalent
in all sectorsin all sectors
• Sectors’ development Sectors’ development
and competitiveness and competitiveness
not related to upskilling not related to upskilling
vs. deskilling but rather vs. deskilling but rather
to high upskilling vs. to high upskilling vs.
low upskillinglow upskilling
• Upskilling is prevalent Upskilling is prevalent
in all sectorsin all sectors
• Sectors’ development Sectors’ development
and competitiveness and competitiveness
not related to upskilling not related to upskilling
vs. deskilling but rather vs. deskilling but rather
to high upskilling vs. to high upskilling vs.
low upskillinglow upskilling
Main economic and employment trends
Index of changes in employment in the EU by occupationIndex of changes in employment in the EU by occupation
Source: EurostatSource: Eurostat
High skilled
Skilled
Low skilled
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Polarisation Polarisation
Dramatic decline in the need for skilled labour
Steady demand for low skilled labour
Significant increase in the need for high skilled labour
Polarisation Polarisation
Dramatic decline in the need for skilled labour
Steady demand for low skilled labour
Significant increase in the need for high skilled labour
Main economic and employment trends
Demographic changes in the main age groupsDemographic changes in the main age groups
Source: EurostatSource: Eurostat
Clear need for Clear need for replacement!replacement!
Clear need for Clear need for replacement!replacement!
Common paths of sectoral evolution
Yearly employment growth (%) 2000-2006
Cu
rre
nt
nu
mb
er
of
off
sho
red
fu
nct
ion
s
ManyFew-2
-4
-6
6
4
2
Automotive
Shipbuilding
Chemical
Computer
Construction
EnergyElectromechanical
Health & social work
Furniture
Non-metallic
Other services
Post & tele
Printing
Textile
HoReCa
Transportation
Defence
Distribution & trade
Employment Employment growth & off growth & off shoring trendshoring trend
‘‘Staying’ sectors (services)Staying’ sectors (services)
• High employment growth• Low level of off shoring• Increase in high skilled jobs• Still need for low skilled/ manual
labour
‘‘Staying’ sectors (services)Staying’ sectors (services)
• High employment growth• Low level of off shoring• Increase in high skilled jobs• Still need for low skilled/ manual
labour
‘‘Changing’ sectors Changing’ sectors (production)(production)
• Low/no employment growth• High level of off shoring• Increase in high skilled jobs (focus on high end value activities)• Significant decrease in low skilled/manual labour
‘‘Changing’ sectors Changing’ sectors (production)(production)
• Low/no employment growth• High level of off shoring• Increase in high skilled jobs (focus on high end value activities)• Significant decrease in low skilled/manual labour
‘‘Moving’ sectors (production)Moving’ sectors (production)
• High employment decline• High level of off shoring• Decrease in high skilled jobs• Dramatic decrease in low skilled/ manual labour
‘‘Moving’ sectors (production)Moving’ sectors (production)
• High employment decline• High level of off shoring• Decrease in high skilled jobs• Dramatic decrease in low skilled/ manual labour
Finance
Common paths of sectoral evolution
Yearly employment growth (%) 2000-2006
Distribution & trade
Cu
rre
nt
leve
l of
up
-ski
llin
g
HighLow-2
-4
-6
6
4
2
Automotive
Shipbuilding
Computer
Construction
Chemical
Electro-mechanical
Energy
Health & social work
Non-metallic
Other services
Printing
Textile
HoReCa
Post & tele
Transportation
Furniture
Finance
Defence
1. Low up-skilling + job growth = primarily low knowledge intensive service sectors
2. Medium up-skilling + job growth = primarily medium knowledge intensive service sectors
3. High up-skilling + low/no job growth quo = knowledge intensive service or production sectors (also sectors with high or medium off-shoring susceptibility)
1. Low up-skilling + job growth = primarily low knowledge intensive service sectors
2. Medium up-skilling + job growth = primarily medium knowledge intensive service sectors
3. High up-skilling + low/no job growth quo = knowledge intensive service or production sectors (also sectors with high or medium off-shoring susceptibility)
Up-skilling & Up-skilling & employment employment growthgrowth
12
3
Common paths of sectoral evolution
Yearly employment growth (%) 2000-2006
Distribution & trade
Em
plo
yee
s with
tertia
ry or se
con
da
ry ed
uca
tion
(%)
20
07
80 907040 50 60-2
-4
-6
6
4
2
Shipbuilding
Chemical
Computer
Construction
Health & social work
Furniture
Other services
Post & tele
Printing
Textile
HoReCa
Transportation
Defence
0
Employment Employment growth & growth & educational educational levellevel
Sectors with high Sectors with high need of educated need of educated
labourlabour
High share of employees with medium/high level of educational background
+Relatively high job
growth
Sectors with high Sectors with high need of educated need of educated
labourlabour
High share of employees with medium/high level of educational background
+Relatively high job
growth
NB! Data coming up/ not available for:
EnergyFinanceTransport Non-metallicPrinting
Drivers of change – Impact of the financial crisis
Impact of the financial crisis
Sector/Driver Job loss Company restructurings (bankruptcies of dominant players, change of ownership, etc.)
Automotive
Shipbuilding n/a n/a
Chemical
Computer
Construction
Defence
Distribution & trade
Energy
Electromechanical
Finance
Furniture
Health & social work
HoReCa
Non-metallic n/a n/a
Other services
Post & tele
Printing
Textile
Transport
High impact Medium impact Low impact
Most severe hit sectors:Most severe hit sectors:
• Automotive• Construction• Finance• HoReCa• Textile• Transport
Most severe hit sectors:Most severe hit sectors:
• Automotive• Construction• Finance• HoReCa• Textile• Transport
Less impacted sectors:Less impacted sectors:
• Defence (may be impacted in the long run)• Energy• Health and social work• Post and telecom
Less impacted sectors:Less impacted sectors:
• Defence (may be impacted in the long run)• Energy• Health and social work• Post and telecom
Main economic and employment trends
Employment Index
Automotive sector
Building of ships and boats
Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products
Computer, electronic and optical products
Construction
Defence industry
Distribution, trade
Electricity, gas, water and waste Electromechanical engineering
Financial services
Furniture
Health and social work
Hotels, restaurants and catering
Non-metallic materials
Other services, maintenance and cleaning
Post and telecommunications
Printing and publishing
Textiles, apparel and leather products
Transport
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The economic crisis Post economic crisis
2001 - 2003: EU-25
2004 - 2012: EU-27
Employment indexEmployment index
Source: Validating reviews
Source: Sum of scenarios
Categorized employment index
Services
Combined services and production
Production
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Distribution and tradeFinancial services Health and social workHotels, restaurants and cateringOther services, maintainance and cleaningPost and telecommunicationsTransport
Computer, electronic and optical productsConstructionElectricity, gas, water and wastePrinting and publishing
Automotive sectorBuilding of ships and boatsChemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic productsDefence industryElectromechanical engineeringFurnitureNon-metallic materialsTextiles, apparel and leather products
The economic crisis Post economic crisis
Main economic and employment trends
Categorized employment indexCategorized employment index
Social/culturalSocial/cultural
• Intercultural skills
• Team work • Self management
• Entrepreneurship and innovativeness
Emerging skills and competencies
TechnicalTechnical
• ICT and E-skills (both at user and expert level)
• Skills/knowledge related to new materials
• Skills/knowledge related to new processes
• Health and green skills (related to health and climate and environmental solutions)
ManagerialManagerial
• Intercultural management
• International value chain management
• International financial management
• Green management (managing climate and environmental solutions)
Most required emerging competenciesMost required emerging competencies
+ Multiskilling and new combinations of skills+ Multiskilling and new combinations of skills
In service sectorsIn service sectors
• Intercultural skills
• Conflict solution
• Multiskilling
Emerging skills and competencies
All sectorsAll sectors
• ICT and E-skills (both at user and expert level)
• Health and green skills (related to health and climate and environmental solutions)
• Entrepreneurship and innovativeness
• Team work • Self management
• New combinations of skills and competencies
Production sectorsProduction sectors
• Skills/knowledge related to new materials
• Skills/knowledge related to new processes
• International value chain management
Most required emerging competenciesMost required emerging competencies
Common paths of sectoral evolution
Yearly employment growth (%) 200-2006
Distribution & trade
Ye
arly
va
lue
ad
de
d g
row
th (
%)
19
95
-20
00
2 4 6-6 -4 -2-2
-4
-6
6
4
2
Automotive
Shipbuilding
Chemical
Computer
Construction
EnergyElectro-
mechanical
Health & social work
Furniture
Non-metallic
Other services
Post & tele
Printing
Textile
HoReCa
Transportation
Employment Employment growth & value growth & value added growthadded growth
Service: High Service: High growth sectorsgrowth sectors
Significant employment growth combined with growth in added value
Service: High Service: High growth sectorsgrowth sectors
Significant employment growth combined with growth in added value
Production sectors: Production sectors: European excellenceEuropean excellence
Employment decline. Still high to medium growth in value added
Production sectors: Production sectors: European excellenceEuropean excellence
Employment decline. Still high to medium growth in value added
Common paths of sectoral evolution
Yearly employment growth (%) 2000-2006
Distribution & trade
Cu
rre
nt
sig
nifi
can
ce o
f a
ge
ing
wo
rk
forc
e
HighLow-2
-4
-6
6
4
2
Automotive
Shipbuilding
Chemical
Computer
Construction
EnergyElectro-
mechanical
Health & social workFurniture
Non-metallic
Other services
Post & tele
Printing
Textile
HoReCa
Transportation
Finance
Defence
Employment Employment growth & ageing growth & ageing workforceworkforce
‘‘Ageing’ sectorsAgeing’ sectors
Sectors with typically urgent or coming recruitment challenges directly connected to an ageing workforce combined with employment growth
‘‘Ageing’ sectorsAgeing’ sectors
Sectors with typically urgent or coming recruitment challenges directly connected to an ageing workforce combined with employment growth
‘‘young’ sectorsyoung’ sectors
Sectors with urgent or coming recruitment challenges related to job growth but only weakly related to an ageing workforce
‘‘young’ sectorsyoung’ sectors
Sectors with urgent or coming recruitment challenges related to job growth but only weakly related to an ageing workforce
Main findings 1
• Polarisation of labour market/skills need: Polarisation of labour market/skills need:
ØSignificant decline in medium skilled jobs (E.g. craftsmen, machine operators, etc.)
ØModerate increase in low/un-skilled jobs (E.g.. elementary service occupations
Ø High increase in high skilled jobs (E.g. Professionals, managers, etc.)
• Significant job growth (only) in service sectors: Significant job growth (only) in service sectors:
Ø Increase in both high and low/un-skilled jobs
• European excellence within production:European excellence within production: internationalisation, off shoring and specialisation leads to job decline in production sectors but growth in value added
Ø Decrease mostly in skilled and low skilled jobs
Ø Status quo or increase in high skilled (high end value) jobs
However…
• Upskilling in all sectorsUpskilling in all sectors both historically and in the future
• Increasing educational levels in all sectorsIncreasing educational levels in all sectors
Main findings 2
• Traditional sector divisions are dissolving:Traditional sector divisions are dissolving: need for new types and mixes off employees and educational backgrounds in most sectors
• Traditional job profiles and work tasks are increasingly combinedTraditional job profiles and work tasks are increasingly combined demanding new combinations of skills and competencies
• New skills and competencesNew skills and competences are especially related to sustainabilitysustainability (environment, climate, health health, , etc.)etc.) concerns (and regulation), ICTICT, and to the internationalisationinternationalisation of both workforce, markets and supply chains
• High risk of skills (and labour) shortages in many sectorsHigh risk of skills (and labour) shortages in many sectors due to an ageing workforce, poor image among young candidates and/or problems to attract women
Ø Production sectors: Faded and a heavy technical image (Ex. ship building, energy(-production))
Ø Service sectors: Poor working conditions and career opportunities (Ex.: Horeca, Other Services (cleaning, etc.))
Evolutionary paradigms
Recommendations on education and trainingRecommendations on education and training
• Adapt and modernise vocational education and training (VET)modernise vocational education and training (VET) and general education systems
• Increase the flexibility of the educational systemflexibility of the educational system. New business models demands new skills
• Include inter- and multidisciplinary approachesinter- and multidisciplinary approaches in education
• Closer cooperation between stakeholderscooperation between stakeholders is important In order to adapt the education systemto adapt the education system to new skill needs
• Promote sector specific skillssector specific skills at an early stage - by renewing forms of education
• Increase use of apprenticeship/mentoring programmesapprenticeship/mentoring programmes
• Greater emphasis should be put on teaching cultural and social skillsteaching cultural and social skills in the educational system
• EU standardization and certification of educations and skillscertification of educations and skills to ensure free movement of the labour force
• Develop special/joint education and training programmes for SMEstraining programmes for SMEs
• Develop high qaulity online and digitalised learning toolsDevelop high qaulity online and digitalised learning tools
• Create aCreate a culture of life long learning culture of life long learning
• Support Support in-house up-skilling and (re)training in-house up-skilling and (re)training of workersof workers
Main recommendations from the sector studies
Evolutionary paradigms
General recommendations General recommendations
• Enhance innovation and R&Dinnovation and R&D
• Invest strongly in human capital in human capital
• Improve sector imagesector image – especially for young candidates
• Improve working conditionsworking conditions
• Improve career and personal development possibilitiescareer and personal development possibilities – especially for low skilled workers
• Improve collaboration among all stakeholderscollaboration among all stakeholders
• Support and enforce social dialogueenforce social dialogue
• Support diversity policies and programmes diversity policies and programmes aimed at:
• Keeping elderly employees elderly employees (Active ageing)
• Attract female workers/managersfemale workers/managers
• Integrate and attract immigrant workers and expats immigrant workers and expats
• Develop sector monitoring systems on employment, skills and competences monitoring systems on employment, skills and competences
• Support clustering and cross border networking clustering and cross border networking (for joint training and R&D projects)
Main recommendations from the sector studies
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Oxford Research ABBox 582201 25 MalmöSweden
Oxford Research ASKjøita 424630 KristiansandNoway
Thanks!Thanks!
Presentation by Kim Møller Presentation by Kim Møller President of the boardPresident of the board
Oxford ResearchOxford Research
[email protected]+45 33 69 13 69+45 33 69 13 69