23 APRIL 2020

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Kevin May Madeline ListEditor in Chief PhocusWireModerator

Research AnalystPhocuswright

Today’s speakers

BACKGROUND

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0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

3/1/2020 3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020 3/29/2020 4/5/2020 4/12/2020 4/19/2020

U.S. U.K. France Germany

Key Happenings and Cumulative COVID-19 CasesMarch 1, 2020 – April 20, 2020

11 MarchWHO declares

COVID-19 a pandemic

13 MarchU.S. declares a

national emergency

24 MarchU.K. govt. invokes

emergency powers

23 MarchFrance declares state of health emergency

Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data

Impact of COVID-19 on travelers’ plans

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Restrictions – where do travelers stand?

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Governments getting it right on travel restrictions

Question: On a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being not strict enough, 5 being too strict), how appropriate do you feel the current travel restrictions in your country are for the novel coronavirus outbreak? Please answer from your perspective.Base: Adults who had a trip planned within the next 3 months: U.S. (N=415); U.K. (N=401); Germany (N=394); France (N=397)

36%

34%

35%

32%

50%

47%

46%

44%

14%

19%

19%

24%

France

Germany

U.K.

U.S.

Not strict enough (1-2) Just right (3) Overly strict (4-5)

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U.S.

33% Postponed29% Canceled

U.K.

39% Postponed30% Canceled

Germany

25% Postponed36% Canceled

France

37% Postponed26% Canceled

Decisions, decisions!

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U.S.• Younger travelers (18-34) were as likely to postpone

and cancel as they were to keep their plans in place.• In the 35-54 age range, the percentage of travelers

postponing their trips (46%) were nearly double those who canceled (24%).

• Close to a third each in the 55+ age category postponed or canceled.

U.K.• Pushing trips into the future was the most preferred

course of action for all age groups in the U.K.• Those aged 55+ were evenly split between postponing

and canceling their trips, at 38% each.

Germany• German travelers were least likely to differ in their

actions based on their age.• About a quarter of travelers across age groups

postponed, and slightly more than a third canceled their trips.

• About 22% were unsure or undecided on their options.

France• French travelers exhibit the most optimism that they

will be able to take their trips at a later date. Most chose to postpone, ranging from 34% of 55+ to 40% of 18-34 year-olds.

• 29% of those aged 18-54 canceled, while 26% of those aged 55+ were undecided.

What does age have to do with it?

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Travelers undeterred

U.S.61%

U.K.48%

Germany 64%

France74%

Travelers who postponed trips for 1-6 months

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The majority of leisure travelers who canceled their trips recognized that they would have to adapt their normal routines to accommodate restrictions imposed due to COVID-19

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14%

59%

22%

5%

15%

64%

15%

6%

16%

65%

14%

5%

12%

68%

9% 11%

0%

25%

50%

75%

Continue normal routine Normal routine adjusted forcoronavirus

Staycation in my home city Don’t know/not sure

U.S. U.K. Germany France

Question: You indicated that your upcoming leisure trip has been canceled. How will you use the time that was intended for your leisure trip?Base: Adults who had a trip planned within the next 3 months: U.S. (N=110); U.K. (N=117); Germany (N=138); France (N=100)

Travelers who canceled their trips mostly planned to stay home and adapt their routines to the crisis

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Staycations? Not yet!

U.S.22%

U.K.15%

Germany14%

France9%

Travelers who canceled their trip and will enjoy a staycation instead

Reasons travelers changed their plans

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Travelers’ three main concerns:

• Catching or spreading COVID

• Mobility and restrictions

• Ability to fully enjoy destination

Fear drives changes to travel plans

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Fear of Catching or Spreading COVID-19

U.S. 61% 64% 38%

Fear of exposure in transit

Fear of exposure in destination

Fear of exposing others

U.K. 55% 56% 39%

Germany 41% 50% 35%

France 48% 40% 31%

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Travelers associate air travel with a higher risk of getting infected

U.S. 70% 45%

Air Travelers Non-Air Travelers

U.K. 58% 50%

Germany 48% 33%

France 55% 40%

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Fear of Restricted Mobility

U.S. 46% 30%

Fear of being quarantined Fear of getting stranded

U.K. 43% 34%

Germany 52% 37%

France 36% 38%

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Ability to enjoy in-destination activities

U.S. 36% 32%

Hotels/Bars/Restaurants Closed Attractions/Activities Closed

U.K. 39% 31%

Germany 47% 33%

France 43% 26%

Service providers get high marks

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Over half of travelers who did change their plans were satisfied with how their providers handled it

Question: On a scale of 1-5 (1 being not satisfied at all, 5 being very satisfied), how satisfied were you with your travel providers’ handling of any cancellations, changes, or postponements?Base: Adults who had a trip planned within the next 3 months: U.S. (N= 274); U.K. (N=297); Germany (N=250); France (N=259)

10%

10%

14%

9%

26%

30%

27%

39%

64%

60%

60%

53%

U.S.

U.K.

Germany

France

Low (1-2) Medium (3) High (4-5)

Satisfaction with provider handling of trip changes/cancellations

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Question: On a scale of 1-5 (1 being not satisfied at all, 5 being very satisfied), how satisfied were you with your travel providers’ handling of any cancellations, changes, or postponements?Base: Adults who had a trip planned within the next 3 months: U.S. (N= 274); U.K. (N=297); Germany (N=250); France (N=259)

Travelers ages 55+ expressed more satisfaction on average with their providers, possibly due to a tendency to have higher loyalty statusAges 55+: Satisfaction with provider handling of trip changes/cancellations

5%

4%

3%

8%

21%

21%

31%

35%

74%

75%

66%

57%

U.S.

U.K.

Germany

France

Low (1-2) Medium (3) High (4-5)

Gaining confidence to travel again

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Deals? No thanks!

Question: How likely are you to travel within the next three months (between now and June 30, 2020) specifically to take advantage of the deals (e.g., cheap airfares) available in the market? Please rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 being not likely at all, 5 being very likely)Base: Adults who had a trip planned within the next 3 months: U.S. (N=385); U.K. (N=388); Germany (N=385); France (N=380)

39%

54%

61%

42%

29%

28%

20%

27%

32%

19%

19%

31%

France

Germany

U.K.

U.S.

Low (1-2) Medium (3) High (4-5)

Likelihood to take advantage of travel deals

© 2020 Phocuswright Inc. All Rights Reserved.26Question: On a scale of 1-5 (1 being not satisfied at all, 5 being very satisfied), how satisfied were you with your travel providers’ handling of any cancellations, changes, or postponements?Base: Adults who had a trip planned within the next 3 months: U.S. (N= 274); U.K. (N=297); Germany (N=250); France (N=259)

But, travelers under 34 feel more comfortable than other age groups taking advantage of COVID leisure travel bargainsHigh likelihood of taking advantage of deals

41%

33%

17%

40%

34%

16%

25%28%

21%

7%

12%

26%

U.S. U.K. Germany France

>34 35-54 55+

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To feel comfortable traveling again, leisure travelers will look for:

• Lessened risk of getting infected

• Lowered restrictions

• Ability to experience the destination fully

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Lessened Risk of Getting Infected

U.S. 57%

Drop in infection rates

U.K. 47%

Germany 54%

France 47%

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Lowered Restrictions

U.S. 47% 44% 13%

Official government

advisory

Change in quarantine policies

Change in border-control policies

U.K. 56% 36% 25%

Germany 47% 44% 33%

France 34% 38% 24%

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The Destination Experience

U.S. 45% 32%

Hotels/Restaurants/Bars Reopen

Attractions/Activities Reopen

U.K. 42% 30%

Germany 47% 28%

France 40% 21%

Q & A

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Phocuswright and PhocusWire COVID-19 Resources

• Phocuswright’s COVID-19 Hotel Forecast – Special Series

• Phocuswright’s COVID-19 Updates• U.S. Airlines

• U.S. Hotel and Lodging

• U.S. OTAs

• U.S. Car Rental

• U.S. Cruise

• The PhocusWire Live Blog

• InPhocus Podcast

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