traveling after covid after covid.pdf · traveling after covid 1 frederic thomas2, associate...
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TravelingafterCOVID1
FredericTHOMAS2,AssociateProfessor,IREST,Paris1Pantheon-SorbonneThequestionnaireon thepropensity to travel afterCOVID-19wasdesigned to capture individuals'feelings about travelling after COVID-19. It was shared online through professional and academicnetworks specialized in tourism issues. As a result, a large but unknown proportion of therespondentsareindividualsworkingorstudyinginthetourismfield.Atotalof1,764questionnaireswerecollectedonline in30days, from18April to18May2020.Themain respondentswere fromEuropean countries (794), followedbyAsia (605),America (168),Oceania and thePacific (99) andAfrica and the Middle East (98). French accounted for 29% of respondents, followed by Chinese(15%), Iranians (7%),Colombians (5%)andAustralians (5%).Womenwerealmost twiceas likelyasmentohaverespondedto thissurvey (64.9%of respondentswerewomen,comparedto34.5%ofmen).Only respondents from Iran and South Koreahad theopposite trend in the gender ratio ofrespondents.
Table1-Top10NationalitiesandCountriesofresidence
Nationality CountryofresidenceFrench 513 557Chinese 273 239Iranian 128 112
Colombian 89 90Australian 82 97
Korean 77 68Vietnamese 66 56American 47 46
Thai 36 49German 32 19
Theaverageageofrespondentswasbetween25and34years,althoughdifferencesappearbetweennationalitygroupswithrespondentsgenerallyolderinEastAsia(55-64)andOceaniaandthePacific(45-54).
Figure1–Agebracketofrespondentsforthemaingroupofnationalitiesofrespondents
1 TheauthorwouldliketothankChristineJacqueminfromRTA(www.be-rta.com)andtheformerandcurrentstudentsof2 [email protected]
00%05%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica
OceaniaandPaci<ic
SouthAmerica
South-EastAsia
AfricaandMiddleEast
WesternEurope
<25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
>65
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Question1–Idon'tthinkIwillchangemybehaviourandIwishIcouldcontinuetotravelasbefore
WhenaskedaboutthelikelihoodofchangingbehaviourafterCOVID,respondentsfromChinaweretheonlygroupforwhichtheaverageratingofresponseswasneutral(3.07).FortheothernationalitygroupswithhigherratesforEastAsiaandOceaniaandPacific, it ishighly likely, ifnotcertain,thatmostwillnotchangetheirbehaviour.Inotherwords,mostdonotwishtochangetheirbehaviour.Inaverage,about20%onlydisagreeortotallydisagreetonotchangetheirbehaviourandconsiderthattheywon’tcontinuetotravelasbefore.Question2–Iamafraidthatmyfinancialsituationasaresultofthishealthcrisiswillnotallowmetotravelforatleastayear.
Mainly for respondents from Iran (3.54)andSouthAmerica (3.73),and toa lesserextent toAfricaandtheMiddleEast(3.39),itismostlikelythattheirfinancialsituationwillnotallowthemtotravel.For respondents from Asia, Oceania and the Pacific, this is still uncertain, while Westerners(Europeans–2.72andNorthAmericans–2.50)seemquiteconfidentthattheywon’tbeconstrainedbytheirfinancialsituation.Notethatweareonyoungersamplesofrespondentsforthelatter.
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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica
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AfricaandMiddleEast
WesternEurope
Totallyagree
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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica
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Totallyagree
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Question3–Ibelievethatmytravelswillinitiallybelessfarfrommyhomecountrywithpriorityformycountryofresidenceorbordercountries.
Withanaveragegreater than3, all nationality groups think that their tripswill initially be less farfrom their country of origin,with priority given to their country of residence or border countries.Differences are only observed in the degree of certainty with, in particular, a higher degree ofcertainty for IraniansandSouthAmericansand toa lesserextent to those fromAfricaandMiddleEast.Question 4 – I would like a different form of tourism, more respectful of the visitedcommunitiesandofnature.
Althoughallnationalitiesorgroupsofnationalitieswantadifferentformoftourism,morerespectfulofnatureandthecommunitiesvisited,thereisastrongerconvictionforsustainabletourismamonggroupsofnationalitieswithyoungerrespondents(SouthAmerica,South-EastAsia,AfricaandMiddleEast,andWesternEurope).However,thisobservationislessclear-cutforcertainnationalities(Iran)or groups of nationalities (Oceania and the Pacific) for which there are either uncertainties ordivergencesofthesameproportionasthecertaintiesaboutthisambition.
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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica
OceaniaandPaci<ic
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WesternEurope
Totallyagree
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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica
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Question5–Inowwishtoavoidmasstourismdestinationsandlargecities.
WiththeexceptionofthegroupsofnationalitiesfromEastAsiaandOceaniaandthePacific,olderonaveragethantheothers,forwhomtheintentiontocontinuetravellingtomasstourismdestinationsor major cities remains uncertain but still exists, the other groups of nationalities majoritarilyexpressedtheirdesiretoavoidthesedestinations.Question 6 – I now believe that certain countries and regions are at risk from a healthpointofviewandInolongerwishtovisitthem.
Theideathatsomedestinationswouldnowbemoreatriskthanothersfromahealthperspectiveisperceivedverydifferentlybythedifferentnationalitygroups. Respondentsof Iranian,ChineseandAfricanorMiddleEastnationalitieshaveastrongerpropensitytoviewthisassumptionpositively,incontrasttoWesternEuropeans,forwhomthisisnotthecase.Itisdifficulttoconsidertheageasanexplanatory factor, sinceboth theChineseand theWesternEuropeansamplesof respondentsaremadeupmainlyofindividualsunder34yearsofage.
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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica
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WesternEurope
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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica
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Question7–Inviewofthecurrenthealthcrisis,whichcountriesorregionsnowseemtoyoutobethesafestfromahealthperspective?
Although for13%of therespondents,nodestinationseemssafe today, threeregionsarehoweverconsideredbyaboutathirdoftherespondentsassafefromahealthperspectivenamelyNorthernEurope(31%),EastAsia(27%)andOceaniaandPacific(26%).Question8–Inviewofthecurrenthealthcrisis,whichcountriesorregionsnowseemtoyoutobetheleastsafefromahealthperspective?
Thequestionconcerning the least safe countries fromahealthperspective, in viewof thecurrentcrisis,alsorevealsagroupofthreeregionsofwhichtwohadthehighestnumberofcasesatthetimeofthequestionnaire(NorthernAmerica–39%andWesternEurope–29%).Paradoxically,EastAsia,whichwasconsideredasoneofthesafestregionsby27%ofrespondents,isalsoconsideredasoneoftheleastsafeby32%ofrespondents.Thisisdueinparttotheoriginoftherespondentsandthegeographicoriginofthepandemic.Thisdocument is a first restitutionof the results: further statistical analysiswill allow to completethisinformationandtoprovidemoreaccuracytothefindings.
WesternEurope
EasternEurope
NorthernEurope
Eurasia
Mediterranean
SouthAsia
NorthAsia
EastAsia
Sout-EastAsia
OceaniaandPaci8ic
NorthernAm
erica
CentralAmerica
LatinAmericaandthe
Caribbean
SouthAmerica
NorthAfrica
Sub-saharanAfrica
EastAfrica
CentralAfrica
SouthAfrica
MiddleEast
IndianOcean
None
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WesternEurope
EasternEurope
NorthernEurope
Eurasia
Mediterranean
SouthAsia
NorthAsia
EastAsia
Sout-EastAsia
OceaniaandPaci8ic
NorthernAm
erica CentralAmerica
LatinAmericaandthe
Caribbean
SouthAmerica
NorthAfrica
Sub-saharanAfrica
EastAfrica
CentralAfrica
SouthAfrica
MiddleEast
IndianOcean
None
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Annex
Table2–Summaryofquestionsaverage
Nationalityorgroupofnationalities
#ofRespondents Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6
China 235 3,07 3,02 3,43 3,82 3,46 3,73EastAsia 75 3,68 3,05 3,48 3,61 3,13 3,16
Iran 112 3,72 3,54 3,79 3,60 3,84 4,01NorthAmerica 60 3,38 2,50 3,38 3,92 3,52 3,12
OceaniaandPacific 99 4,01 3,15 3,37 3,86 3,07 3,22SouthAmerica 100 3,64 3,73 3,78 4,43 3,74 3,45South-EastAsia 175 3,68 3,20 3,61 4,40 3,82 3,21
AfricaandMiddle-East 98 3,79 3,32 3,59 4,39 4,02 3,37WesternEurope 663 3,53 2,72 3,62 4,38 3,63 2,83
Average 1764 3,55 2,99 3,56 4,12 3,59 3,16