tree house 4q fy 2013
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy)Net sales 29 29 1.1 22 32.8EBITDA 14 16 (13.0) 11 30.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 48.3 56.1 (784)bp 49.2 (97)bp
Adjusted PAT 7 8 (8.8) 5 45.1Source: Company, Angel Research
Tree House Education and Accessories Ltd. (THEAL) reported a strong set of
numbers for 4QFY2013. Its top-line grew by 32.8% yoy to `29.4cr, better than
our estimate of`
25.2cr. The EBITDA grew by 30.2% to`
14.2cr while marginscontracted marginally by 97bp yoy to 48.3% owing to rise in other expenses.
Subsequently, the net profit grew by a whopping 45.1% to `7.3cr, aided by lower
interest expense while net profit margin expanded to 25.0%.
Budding pre-school segment provides growth visibility: The concept of impartingeducation to young toddlers is catching up fast today. As per CRISIL research, the
size of pre-school segment is expected to grow to `13,300cr in 2015 from the
current `5,000cr. Moreover, with an urbanization rate of 40% and escalated
average household disposable income, the demand for the segment is expected
to maintain its momentum.
Dual business model provides competitive edge: Dual business model of THEALfacilitates it to maintain quality of education, maximize the profit through SOS,
and widen its reach through franchisees. Moreover, Tree House being an
established brand in the pre-school segment has taken a logical step to enter the
K-12 segment. Pre-schools and K-12, thus, become complimentary to each other
with pre-school acting as a feeder to the K-12.
Outlook and valuation: Given the growth opportunities in the pre-school segmentand consistent expansion by THEAL, we expect the top-line and net profit to grow
at a CAGR of 30.1% and 29.9% respectively over FY2013-15E to `194cr and
`56cr in FY2015E. We recommend Accumulate on THEAL with a revised targetprice of `297 based on target PE of 19x of FY2015E earnings.Key financialsY/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 77 114 153 194% chg 97.0 47.9 33.7 26.7
Net Profit 22 33 45 56% chg 176.4 55.0 33.7 26.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 54.3 54.1 53.0 52.8FDEPS (`) 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6
P/E (x) 45.3 29.2 21.8 17.3
P/BV (x) 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.3
RoE (%) 8.4 9.6 11.8 13.1RoCE (%) 18.6 16.5 18.3 22.1
EV/Sales (x) 12.2 8.6 6.5 5.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.5 15.9 12.3 9.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATECMP `271
Target Price `297
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Net Debt 8.4
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 27.8
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 16.6
FII / NRIs / OCBs 39.4
Indian Public / Others 16.3
Abs.(%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 7.2 23.9 19.3
THEAL 15.1 36.5 *
* Listed in August 2011
52 Week High / Low 295 / 190
Educational Services
Market Cap (`cr) 973
Beta 0.9
Avg. Daily Volume 27,277
Face Value (`) 10
BSE Sensex 20,215
Nifty 6,124
Reuters Code THEA.BO
THEAL.IN
Twinkle Gosar+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6848
Tree HouseSpreading Branches
4QFY2013 Result Update | Educational Services
May 30, 2013
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Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance highlightsY/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chgTotal operating income 29.4 29.1 1.1 22.1 32.8 114 77 47.7Net raw material 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(% of Sales) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Employee cost 3.4 3.5 (1.7) 3.0 12.6 13.3 13.1 1.6
(% of Sales) 11.5 11.9 13.6 11.7 16.9
Other Expenses 11.8 9.3 27.0 8.2 43.6 39.2 22.2 76.1
(% of Sales) 40.2 32.0 37.2 34.3 28.8
Total expenditure 15.2 12.8 19.2 11.2 35.3 52 35 48.5EBITDA 14.2 16.3 (13.0) 10.9 30.2 61.8 42.0 47.1EBITDA Margin (%) 48.3 56.1 (784)bp 49.2 (97)bp 54.1 54.3 (23)bp
Interest 1.2 2.2 (45.9) 2.0 (2382.2) 6.6 6.5 1.8
Depreciation 3.6 3.4 7.1 2.7 34.3 13.4 7.8 71.5Other income 1.7 1.3 28.5 1.3 32.5 7.1 3.8 87.1
PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 11.0 12.0 (8.2) 7.4 48.4 48.8 31.5 55.2Extr. Income/(Expense) 24.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 35.7 12.0 7.4 48.8 31.5(% of Sales) 121.5 41.4 33.6 42.7 40.7
Tax 3.7 4.0 (7.0) 2.4 55.5 15.5 9.9 56.1
(% of PBT) 10.4 33.1 32.0 31.7 31.6
Reported PAT 32.0 8.1 297.6 5.1 532.6 33.3 21.5 54.8Adjusted PAT 7.3 8.1 (8.8) 5.1 45.1 33.3 21.5 54.8PATM (%) 25.0 27.7 22.9 29.2 27.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:Actual vs Angel's EstimatesActual v/s Angel's Estimates Actual (`cr) Estimate (` cr) % variationTotal Income 29 25 16.7EBITDA 14 14 4.5
EBITDA Margin 48.3 53.9 (560)bp
Adjusted PAT 7 5 33.7Source: Company, Angel Research
For 4QFY2013, the top-line of the company grew by 32.8% yoy to`
29.4cr on theback of opening 30 pre-schools, better than our estimate of `25.2cr. The EBITDA
grew by 30.2% to `14.2cr while margins contracted marginally by 97bp yoy to
48.3% owing to rise in other expenses. On the back of strong top-line growth and
robust operating performance, net profit grew by a whopping 45.1% to `7.3cr,
aided by lower interest expense. The interest expense has reduced since the
company has switched its loan to a relatively cheaper substitute (would be repaid
by FY2015E). Subsequently, the net profit margin too expanded from 22.9% in the
same quarter previous year to 25.0% in current quarter and above our estimate of
21.8%.
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Exhibit 3:Net sales moving northwards
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:Expansion cost dents EBITDA margin
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment argumentsUnique business model and strong brand to provide competitive edge
THEAL is the largest self-operated pre-school provider in India, operating on a
dual business model, ie operating SOS (~80% of total centres) in metro cities and
adopting the franchise model in tier 3 & 4 cities. This model facilitates the
company to maintain its quality of education and maximize profits through SOS;
and widen the reach through franchisees. In franchisees, the quality of education is
maintained by adopting standardization of curriculum and teacher training
programmes. Strong brand and assured quality of education act as differentiating
pillars and hence provides THEAL a competitive edge over other pre-school
operators.
THEAL has recently announced its initiative to provide pre-primary education at
affordable prices through Global Champs pre-schools. The company has opened
4 centres until now in Mumbai.
K-12 to be logical extension, pre-school being the potential feeder
Tree House being an established and trusted brand in the pre-school segment
has taken a logical step to enter the K-12 segment. K-12 schools are established
only where the company has strong pre-school presence, which minimizes the
marketing cost. The company currently provides consultancy and management
services to 24 schools and is in the process of developing 3 self-owned K-12
school buildings, for which major capex has already been undertaken.
Revenue comes in by way of service or consultancy fees which are usually based
on factors which include (i) per child admitted to the school (for services forming
part of service agreement) and (ii) lumpsum basis (for services beyond the scope of
service agreement).
Both, pre-schools and K-12s are complimentary to each other with pre-school
acting as a feeder to the K-12. We expect the K-12 segment to post a CAGR of
60% over FY2012-15 to `23cr in FY2015.
10
16
18
21
22
28
28
29
29
60.0
7.621.7 3.9
24.3 2.72.8 1.1
0
10
20
30
4050
60
70
0
5
10
15
2025
30
35
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(%)
(`cr)
Revenue ( LHS) Revenue growth qoq ( RHS)
3.9
9.4
10.7
11.0
10.9
15.8
15.5
16.3
14.2
38.6
58.160.9
51.749.2
57.4 54.9 56.148.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(%)
(`cr)
EBITD A (LH S) EBIT DA Margin (RHS )
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Potential growth in pre-school segment- key growth driver
Niche but growing addressable market: India is the second most populatedcountry in the world with ~54cr in the age bracket of 0-24 years, which forms
the addressable segment for education. As per CRISIL research, the size of
pre-school segment is expected to grow to `13,300cr in 2015 from the current
`5,000cr. To capitalize on such opportunities, THEAL intends to establish and
expand the number of its pre-schools in various cities and towns in India and
proposes to open an additional 120 pre- schools across India by FY2014.
Rapid urbanization and transition in income bracket of people: According toMckinsey Global Institutes recent research study, Indias urban population is
expected to rise from 34cr in 2008 to 59cr in 2030, ie an urbanization rate of
40% (lower than seen in most Asian countries due to strict definition of Indian
Census). The average household disposable income in urban areas is
expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% from ~`60,000 in 2008 to ~`239,000
in 2030 considering a GDP growth rate of 7.4%. Thus, such a rise in
disposable incomes provides strong growth visibility for the education market.
Changing lifestyles with need for quality education: With the changingdemographics, the lifestyle of the people has changed drastically. Women who
used to be home-makers previously are now joining the workforce and that
too at an increasing rate. Also, there is increased awareness about the role of
education in a competitive market (Think tank). Moreover, with awareness of
the fact that 40% of a persons ability to learn is shaped during the first four
years of his life, pre-schools have secured a vital place in the education
system.
Brainworks Learning acquisition to complement THEALs reach
THEAL has plans to acquire a pre-school brand Brainworks Learning (BL) which is
expected to be finalised by the end of 1QFY2014. BL centres are present mainly in
the areas where THEAL is yet to establish its foothold. The proposed acquisition is
hence expected to widen the reach of THEAL. Of the 70 centres of BL, 13 are self
owned and will be converted to Tree House brand post acquisition. Rest of the
centres, which are franchisee based, will be given an option to convert to THEALs
brand or else continue with BLs brand. This inorganic growth is thus expected toboost the top-line, while simultaneously extending the reach.
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Financials
Exhibit 5:Key AssumptionsParticulars FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ETotal no of pre-school centres 302 379 489 619
SOS 240 300 385 485
Franchisee 62 79 104 134
Total Revenue (` cr) 77 114 153 194Pre-school Revenue (` cr) 72 100 137 171
SOS 68 94 128 160
Franchisee 1 2 3 4
Teacher training program 3 4 6 7
K-12 Revenue (` cr) 6 14 16 23School management fees 4 13 15 20
Infrastructure rent 1.2 1.2 1.2 3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6:Revised EstimatesY/E Mar. Earlier estimates Revised estimates % changeFY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales (` cr) 150 192 153 194 1.9 0.8EBITDA Margin (%) 34.3 27.4 33.7 26.2 30bp (219)bp
EPS (`) 12.8 16.2 12.4 15.6 (3.2) (3.5)Source: Angel Research
Expansion plans to lead to top-line CAGR of 30.1% over FY2013-15E
For FY2013, the top-line grew 47.7% to `114cr, owing to an addition of a total of
77 pre-schools, marginally higher than our estimate of `110cr. As on date, THEAL
owns 379 pre-schools and right to provide management services in 24 K-12
schools. The top-line, following the expansion plans of the company, is expected to
grow at a CAGR of 30.1% over FY2013-15 to `194cr in FY2015E.
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Exhibit 7:Pre-school and K-12 expansion plans to drive top-line
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 28.5% over FY2013-15E
The EBITDA for FY2013 came in 54% higher yoy to `62cr as compared to our
estimate of `59cr. The EBITDA margin contracted slightly by 20bp to 54.1% owing
to rise in other expenses due to constant expansion activities by the company.
On the back of a robust estimated top-line growth of 30.1% (CAGR), the
companys EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.5% over FY2013-15E,
from `62cr in FY2013 to `102cr in FY2015E. The EBITDA margin is expected to
stabilize ~52-53% over FY2012-15E.
Exhibit 8:EBITDA to normalise at higher levels
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% over FY2013-15E
For FY2013, the net profit growth was at 53.3% to `33cr, owing to reduced
interest expense for the year. The net profit margin too expanded by 133bp to
29.2%.
On back of a robust estimated top-line coupled with a healthy and stable
operating performance, the PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% to `56cr
in FY2015E with a PAT margin of 29.0%.
21 3
977
114
155
194
108.2
83.5
97.0
47.7
35.4
25.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-
50
100
150
200
250
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
(%)
(`
cr)
Net sales (LHS) Net sales growth (RHS)
717 42 62 83 102
32.9
43.1
54.3 54.1 53.6
52.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
(%)
(`
cr)
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
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Exhibit 9:PAT margins to stabilise at higher levels
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and Valuation
THEAL is in a position to capitalize on the growth opportunities emerging in the
pre-schools segment. It is consistently expanding its network of pre-schools and
K-12 schools pan-India. The top-line of the company is expected to grow at a
30.1% CAGR over FY2013-15 to `194cr in FY2015E. The EBITDA for the company
is expected to grow from `62cr in FY2013 to `102cr in FY2015E, at a 28.5%
CAGR. Owing to a robust top-line and healthy EBITDA, the net profit for the
company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% over FY2013-15E to `56cr in
FY2015E. At the current market price of `271, the stock is trading at a PE of 17.3x
its FY2015E earnings. Considering the nascent stage of pre-school segment with
high potential growth prospects and unique model of THEAL, we recommendAccumulate on THEAL with a revised target price of `297, based on target PE of19x for its FY2015E earnings.Exhibit 10:One-year forward PE
Source: Company, Angel Research
28 22 33 45 56
11.6
19.8
27.829.2
29.0
29.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
(%)
(`
cr)
PAT (LHS) PAT margin (RHS)
80
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
480
530
580
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
(`)
Price 15x 21x 27x 33x
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Competition
The education sector in India is largely unorganized and the business of
pre-schools is highly fragmented and competitive. In addition to competition from
unorganized players in the pre-schools business, THEAL faces a lot of competition
from organized players in the market where it competes with various pre-schools
like Kidzee, Euro Kids, and Roots to Wings (operated by Educomp Solutions).
Risks
Geographical concentration: Of the total 379 pre-schools, more than 40% are
located in and around Mumbai metropolitan. This suggests a geographical
concentration risk to the company.
Regulations pertaining to K-12 segment: Operating pre-schools and
providing educational services to K-12 schools are currently unregulated, but the
government may introduce a regulatory framework in future. Any such government
regulation, and THEALs inability to comply with the same, may adversely affect its
revenue.
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Profit and loss statement (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EGross sales 39 77 114 153 194
Less: Excise duty - - - - -Net Sales 39 77 114 153 194
Other operating income - - - - -
Total operating income 39 77 114 153 194% chg 83.5 97.0 47.9 33.7 26.7
Other operating costs 4 16 30 41 52
% chg 103.1 307.1 85.0 36.5 28.0
Personnel 5 13 13 18 24
% chg 86.0 166.8 1.6 38.9 27.6
Other 13 6 10 13 16
% chg 35.6 (51.3) 53.2 34.1 25.6
Total Expenditure 22 35 53 72 91
EBITDA 17 42 61.82 81 102% chg 140.8 147.8 47.3 31.1 26.0
(% of Net Sales) 43.1 54.3 54.1 53.0 52.8
Depreciation & Amortization 4 8 13 18 21
EBIT 13 34 48 63 81% chg 216.3 163.4 41.8 30.1 29.1
(% of Net Sales) 33.1 44.2 42.4 41.2 42.0
Interest & other charges 1 7 7 5 3
Other Income 0 4 7 7 4
(% of Net Sales) 1.2 4.9 6.1 4.5 1.9
PBT (reported) 12 31 49 65 82Tax 4 10 16 21 26(% of PBT) 36.3 31.6 31.7 31.7 31.7
PAT (reported) 8 22 33 45 56PAT after MI (reported) 8 22 33 45 56ADJ. PAT 8 22 33 45 56% chg 212.4 176.4 55.0 33.7 26.2
(% of Net Sales) 19.8 27.8 29.1 29.2 29.1
Basic EPS (`) 2.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6Fully Diluted EPS (`) 2.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6% chg 212.4 176.4 55.0 33.7 26.2
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Balance sheet (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 24 34 36 36 36
Share Premium account 87 193 240 240 235
Profit Loss account 12 29 63 102 158
Reserves & Surplus 99 223 302 342 393Share warrants - - 10 - -
Shareholders Funds 123 256 348 378 429Total Loans 48 51 67 47 27
Long term provision - - 0 0 0
Other long term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Net Deferred Tax Liability 1.8 3.3 4.4 4.4 4.4
Total Liabilities 172 311 420 429 460APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 72 154 186 251 288
Less: Acc. Depreciation 10 17 31 49 70
Net Block 62 137 155 202 219Capital Work-in-Progress 52 20 40 40 40
Lease adjustment - - - - -
Goodwill - 29 27 24 22
Investments 3 31 10 10 12
Long term loans & advances 34 85 169 174 183
Current Assets 35 64 70 37 49Cash 29 48 49 11 19
Loans & Advances 3 5 7 10 12
Inventory 1 4 5 5 6
Debtor 2 6 7 8 10
Other current assets 3 2 3 3 3
Current liabilities 14 25 24 33 43
Net Current Assets 22 39 46 3 7Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - -Total Assets 172 311 420 429 460
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Cash flow statement (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit Before Tax 12 31 49 65 82
Depreciation 4 8 13 18 21
Other Income (0) (4) (7) (7) (4)
Change in WC 18 5 (6) 5 4
Direct taxes paid (4) (10) (16) (21) (26)
Cash Flow from Operations 29 31 34 60 78(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (88) (102) (136) (70) (46)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (2) (29) 21 0 (2)
Other Income 0 4 7 7 4
Cash Flow from Investing (89) (126) (108) (63) (45)Issue of Equity/Preference 7 10 46 (10) 0
Inc./(Dec.) in Debt 37 5 16 (20) (20)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 0 (3) (5) (5) (5)
Others 35 103 17 - -Cash Flow from Financing 78 115 75 (35) (25)Inc./(Dec.) in cash 19 19 1 (38) 8
Opening cash balance 10 29 48 49 11Closing cash balance 29 48 49 11 19
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Key ratiosY/E March FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 125.1 45.3 29.2 21.8 17.3
P/CEPS 82.9 33.2 20.8 15.5 12.6
P/BV 7.9 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.3
Dividend yield (%) - 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV/Net sales 25.2 12.2 8.6 6.5 5.0
EV/EBITDA 58.4 22.5 15.9 12.3 9.5
EV / Total Assets 5.7 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.1
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 2.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6
EPS (fully diluted) 2.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6
Cash EPS 3.3 8.1 13.0 17.4 21.4
DPS - 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3
Book Value 34.1 71.3 96.9 105.0 119.2
DuPont AnalysisEBIT margin 33.1 44.2 42.4 41.2 42.0
Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
ROIC (Post-tax) 9.3 12.7 11.2 12.5 15.1
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 1.7 8.7 6.8 6.8 6.8
Leverage (x) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.1 (0.0)
Operating ROE 10.3 12.3 11.3 12.9 15.0
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 7.5 11.0 11.5 14.7 17.7
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 14.6 18.6 16.5 18.3 22.1
ROE 6.3 8.4 9.6 11.8 13.1
Turnover ratios (x)Asset TO (Gross Block) 4.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7
Inventory / Net sales (days) 8 12 13 12 47
Receivables (days) 41 18 20 18 18
Payables (days) 156 130 130 130 130
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (1) (1) (9) (18) (22)
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to Equity 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.1 (0.0)
Net debt to EBITDA 1.0 (0.7) 0.1 0.3 (0.0)
Int. Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 10.4 5.3 7.3 13.6 30.7
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M
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Note: Please refer to the important Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may haveinvestment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement Tree House
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`
1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors